Iranian optimism fades after Khamenei doubts success of US talks

Iran’s currency the rial dropped as much as 4% on Tuesday after Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei appeared to question the outcome of ongoing negotiations with the United States, highlighting once more the instability of an economy badly in need of reform.

And yet, the most hotly debated issue in the past few weeks has been whether to change office hours instead of simply adjusting the clocks—a standard move in many countries to maximize daylight during warmer months.

After extended back-and-forth between officials and media, government spokeswoman Fatemeh Mohajerani confirmed on May 13 that Parliament had rejected the time change proposal.

Public backlash followed swiftly. Both traditional and social media brimmed with frustration over the 6 AM workday start promulgated to avoid peak electricity consumption hours as an energy shortage and blackouts persist.

Parents, in particular, lament the impracticality of getting children ready and fed before leaving home in the early hours.

Meanwhile, the position of economy minister remains vacant two months after the previous minister was dismissed.

The government has offered no official reason for the delay, but reports suggest the shortlisted candidates are no better than the ousted Abdolnasser Hemmati—widely viewed as more experienced and competent than his potential successors.

His removal, many argue, had more to do with political wrangling than poor performance. What remains unsaid, however, is that no economy minister—or even President—can independently steer the economy while real power lies with Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei.

In Parliament, proceedings drag on with little public interest. The row between Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf and hardline MP Mostafa Mirsalim has barely registered.

Mirsalim has accused the parliamentary presidium of accepting bribes to delay impeachment motions. Ghalibaf, calling the allegations insulting, has filed a legal complaint. Meanwhile the public largely views the Parliament as irrelevant at best.

President Masoud Pezeshkian and his team are also losing the limited public support they had—best illustrated, perhaps, by rising voices of disapproval within the moderate and reformist camp.

In mid-May, Pezeshkian and Vice President Mohammad Reza Aref once again vowed to lift bans on social media, but skepticism runs deep—especially after the government’s announcement of a 75% hike in internet subscription fees.

Government spokeswoman Fatemeh Mohajerani drew fresh criticism during an official visit to the northern province of Gilan, a popular holiday destination. She was reported to have called braving the trip in hot weather “a sacrifice” she was making for the nation—an offhand comment that sparked ridicule.

On social media, satire has flourished at pace with the problems as anxiety over a potential war lingers and military leaders frequently boast of Iran's arsenal.

One user quipped that Iran doesn’t have enough electricity to light up its underground missile stockpiles.

"The American side ... should try not to spout nonsense," Khamenei said in a speech. "Saying things like 'we won’t allow Iran to enrich uranium' is way out of line," he added. "We do not think (the talks) would yield results now."

Within hours of Khamenei's speech, the Iranian rial weakened by over 3 percent, and the main index of the Tehran Stock Exchange dropped by around 2 percent.

Some supporters of a hard Iranian line said a US moratorium on Iranian enrichment, which Tehran maintains is its national right, would scupper the talks.

“The Leader stood up to America's excesses. The US will be directly responsible if the negotiations bear no result. They have no right not to recognize (Iran's) right to enrichment,” hardline cleric Ehsan Ebadi posted on X.

But the sharp speech also raised alarm about the stakes of the talks' collapse.

“The failure of the negotiations is definitely a loss for Iran, not the US. Iran should not let the negotiations fail,” Iranian teacher Ali Ghiasi-Farahani posted on X.

“What benefit has enrichment had for the Iranian people that they insist on continuing it? It has cost over a trillion dollars in direct and indirect costs so far. Be realistic!!”

Door not yet closed?

Observers from the reformist camp sought to project a cautiously hopeful tone, suggesting the door to diplomacy has not yet closed.

“Peace will come, God willing, when the fighting escalates, the uproar increases, and the pressure reaches an unbearable level. Reason: Experience,” senior reformist journalist Mohammad Sahafi posted on X.

Likewise, reformist journalist Ali-Asghar Shafieian who is close to the Pezeshkian administration emphasized that firm statements from Iranian officials did not yet mean negotiations were doomed.

“Relevant officials have given a similar and appropriate response to the other party's claim before the Leader. If required, they will again make the necessary response after him,” Shafieian posted on X. “But these responses do not mean the failure of negotiations or despair in finding innovative solutions to the problem.”

Matin Razavi, a hardline commentator, also dismissed suggestions of a diplomatic breakdown. “Iran's rejection of further talks and saying no to the US is part of Tehran's 'diplomatic performance' toward Washington. We have not yet reached the stage of failure of the talks,” he wrote.

A more nuanced interpretation was offered by a supporter of Parliament Speaker Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf posting as @mhmdhsyn who suggested that Khamenei’s rhetoric could be a tactical gambit.

“The Islamic Republic says no through the words of its Leader, shows its frowns through the language of its military men, and says yes by its diplomats," he wrote. “This is the Al Pacino face of Iranian diplomacy—smiling on one side and frowning on the other.”

“Many users fall for false promises and suffer serious financial and reputational damage,” said Vahid Majid, head of Iran’s Cyber Police (FATA), in remarks to Tasnim, a news agency affiliated with the Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.

He said the police were taking “consistent and firm action against websites facilitating sigheh, matchmaking.”

Majid added that victims often avoid filing complaints due to concerns over honor and privacy, hampering legal follow-up.

Police continue to track offenders even in the absence of formal complaints, he added, warning that “sigheh-related pages were under full surveillance.”

The remarks followed Iran International's reporting last week that while many of these platforms are indeed fraudulent, some do function. The outlet contacted several Telegram channels and found that in some cases, women responded, sent voice notes, or even agreed to meet in person in case of a cash exchange.

Although the Islamic Republic denies endorsing these services, the investigation pointed to a functioning market where sex work is marketed as religiously-sanctioned contract marriage.

Iran's Supreme National Security Council issued a directive on Tuesday banning domestic media from translating or republishing foreign reports on the country’s negotiations with the United States or offering any analysis on the talks.

The SNSC directive, a copy of which was obtained by Iran International, warned that failure to comply would be considered an act of threatening national interests and security.

It instructed media outlets and editors to only rely on official statements from the Iranian Foreign Ministry—namely, the foreign minister and the ministry’s spokesperson—for any coverage related to the ongoing talks.

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Iranian enrichment

"Once you know how to enrich at any level, all you need is time to be able to enrich at a higher level. And they've already proven the ability to enrich at a higher level. In fact, they have and are doing so now," Rubio said on Tuesday.

"They claim that enrichment is a matter of national pride. It is our view that they want enrichment as a deterrent, they believe that it makes them a threshold nuclear power, and as a result, becomes untouchable," Rubio told the Senate Foreign Relations Committee. "That is the crux of the situation we're facing right now."

"Our hope is that we can encourage them to show them a path towards prosperity and peace that allow them to develop their economy, that allow them, if they want, to have a civil nuclear energy program like other countries around the world have - without enrichment."

Terrorism, missile sanctions

"Obviously we're aware of their sponsorship of terrorism in the region, including the Houthis and Hezbollah and other groups such as these, the militias in Iraq and their efforts to get back into Syria. Right now, the focus at this point of (the talks) has been their enrichment capability and their insistence on enrichment capability," Rubio said.

"Ultimately, I would say that if in fact we have sanctions that are related to the sponsorship of terrorism and a violation of weapons conventions and the like, their long-range munitions—those sanctions will remain. If those aren't part of the deal, then the sanctions will remain as a result of that," he added.

"The focus of the conversations over the last few weeks with (US special envoy) Witkoff and the Iranians has been on this enrichment matter, which is by far sort of the core and most critical matter."

Maximum pressure

"The administration sanctioned 72 entities, 14 individuals, 74 vessels, as well as 18 additional entities, including two Chinese-based oil terminals, 13 vessels," Rubio said.

"I think the maximum pressure campaign is working. We're already seeing a reduction in Iran's ability to fund destabilizing operations across the region ... we're going to continue with sanctions until there's a deal," he told the Senate Foreign Relations Committee.

"The administration’s maximum pressure campaign has secured the release of the last living American hostage held by Hamas, a pledge by the Houthis to abandon attacks on American ships and forced Iran to beg for talks with the United States," Rubio said earlier in the day in prepared remarks submitted to the committee.

European sanctions

"There's a separate set of sanctions out there, which are the snapback provisions that the E3 in Europe have," Rubio said, referring to Britain, France and Germany - the European signatories to a lapsed 2015 nuclear deal with Iran.

"That's on another clock, completely different from ours ... Now, maybe we'll do a deal with Iran and they'll be satisfied with it and not impose their sanctions," he added.

"They are moving forward on their process, independent from ours."