Iranian optimism fades after Khamenei doubts success of US talks

Optimism in Tehran about nuclear talks with Washington has waned after a stern public rebuke from Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei on Tuesday to US demand that Iran totally halt uranium enrichment.

"The American side ... should try not to spout nonsense," Khamenei said in a speech. "Saying things like 'we won’t allow Iran to enrich uranium' is way out of line," he added. "We do not think (the talks) would yield results now."

Within hours of Khamenei's speech, the Iranian rial weakened by over 3 percent, and the main index of the Tehran Stock Exchange dropped by around 2 percent.

Some supporters of a hard Iranian line said a US moratorium on Iranian enrichment, which Tehran maintains is its national right, would scupper the talks.

“The Leader stood up to America's excesses. The US will be directly responsible if the negotiations bear no result. They have no right not to recognize (Iran's) right to enrichment,” hardline cleric Ehsan Ebadi posted on X.

But the sharp speech also raised alarm about the stakes of the talks' collapse.

“The failure of the negotiations is definitely a loss for Iran, not the US. Iran should not let the negotiations fail,” Iranian teacher Ali Ghiasi-Farahani posted on X.

“What benefit has enrichment had for the Iranian people that they insist on continuing it? It has cost over a trillion dollars in direct and indirect costs so far. Be realistic!!”

Door not yet closed?

Observers from the reformist camp sought to project a cautiously hopeful tone, suggesting the door to diplomacy has not yet closed.

“Peace will come, God willing, when the fighting escalates, the uproar increases, and the pressure reaches an unbearable level. Reason: Experience,” senior reformist journalist Mohammad Sahafi posted on X.

Likewise, reformist journalist Ali-Asghar Shafieian who is close to the Pezeshkian administration emphasized that firm statements from Iranian officials did not yet mean negotiations were doomed.

“Relevant officials have given a similar and appropriate response to the other party's claim before the Leader. If required, they will again make the necessary response after him,” Shafieian posted on X. “But these responses do not mean the failure of negotiations or despair in finding innovative solutions to the problem.”

Matin Razavi, a hardline commentator, also dismissed suggestions of a diplomatic breakdown. “Iran's rejection of further talks and saying no to the US is part of Tehran's 'diplomatic performance' toward Washington. We have not yet reached the stage of failure of the talks,” he wrote.

A more nuanced interpretation was offered by a supporter of Parliament Speaker Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf posting as @mhmdhsyn who suggested that Khamenei’s rhetoric could be a tactical gambit.

“The Islamic Republic says no through the words of its Leader, shows its frowns through the language of its military men, and says yes by its diplomats," he wrote. “This is the Al Pacino face of Iranian diplomacy—smiling on one side and frowning on the other.”