Who is the cleric suddenly at the center of Iran’s power struggle?
Behrouz Turani
Iran International
The death of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei has thrust a rather obscure figure into the center of the country’s uncertain political future.
Iran International
The death of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei has thrust a rather obscure figure into the center of the country’s uncertain political future.
Hardline cleric Alireza Arafi is now one of the three members of the interim leadership council tasked with filling the power vacuum after Khamenei’s demise. Within clerical circles he is widely viewed as a potential contender for the country’s highest office. Outside them, most Iranians have barely heard his name.
Many Iranian journalists and political activists abroad assume Arafi will eventually emerge as Khamenei’s successor. Yet Iran’s opaque succession process offers no guarantees.
To become Supreme Leader, Arafi would first have to be nominated by a committee within the Assembly of Experts, the body responsible for choosing the next leader, in a session attended by at least two-thirds of its 88 members. He would then need the support of two-thirds of those present — roughly 40 elderly clerics. None of this is assured.
There is also no certainty that the Islamic Republic will survive long enough to appoint a new Supreme Leader, nor that Arafi, or other potential contenders such as Hassan Khomeini, will emerge unscathed from the current turmoil.
On Sunday night, online rumors even claimed that Arafi had been targeted and killed.
A Khamenei Protégé
Over the past two decades, Arafi has been one of Khamenei’s favored clerics. The Supreme Leader elevated him to senior religious positions, granted him access to substantial financial resources and helped him climb the institutional ladder that led to political influence.
Yet within the interim leadership council he has the least political experience.
President Massoud Pezeshkian, despite his limited political background, has greater public visibility. Chief Justice Gholamhossein Mohseni-Ejei, a former intelligence minister, is the only seasoned political figure in the trio, though he rarely speaks publicly about politics.
Arafi’s only clear advantage is that, unlike the other two, he has not been publicly associated with the violent crackdown ordered by Khamenei during the January protests.
Arafi’s influence stems largely from his leadership of Al-Mustafa International University, his position as dean of the Qom seminary and his membership in the Assembly of Experts — all roles granted or supported by Khamenei.
The Supreme Leader praised him for his ideas on expanding Shiite influence abroad.
Despite lacking political experience, Arafi is known for unwavering loyalty to Khamenei and his ideological outlook. He is considered more hardline than the late leader on cultural issues such as compulsory hijab and has advocated the full implementation of Shiite jurisprudence in governance.
Arafi’s Background
Born in 1959 into a clerical family in Maybod near Yazd in central Iran, Arafi’s ascent began in 2002 when Khamenei approved his proposal for an international university to train Shiite clerics worldwide.
He was soon appointed dean of the institution and granted a substantial budget, a recurring point of criticism among economists and journalists during annual budget debates.
Al-Mustafa now operates more than 80 branches abroad and teaches more than 14,000 students online and in person, placing Arafi at the center of a global clerical network.
Under Khamenei, Arafi also served on the Supreme Council of the Cultural Revolution, as one of the 12 jurists of the Guardian Council and as a key member of the Assembly of Experts — the very body tasked with choosing the next Supreme Leader, if the Islamic Republic endures.
The country is passing through one of the most volatile periods in its modern history, raising doubts not only about who might succeed Khamenei but about whether the Islamic Republic will survive long enough for that question to be answered.
Even for figures now described as potential successors, the title “future leader” may prove more fragile than it appears.
Tehran’s unveiling of a towering statue depicting the Roman Emperor Valerian kneeling before pre-Islamic Persian King Shapur I has renewed criticism of the Islamic Republic’s appeal to nationalist sentiment following the June war with Israel.
For over forty years, the theocracy purged ancient Persian history from schoolbooks, replacing it with post-Islamic narratives. But after the 12-day conflict with Israel, officials have turned to the distant pre-Islamic past to rally a divided society.
From murals of ancient kings and soldiers to patriotic songs added to Shi’ite mourning ceremonies performed before Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, Tehran now embraces imagery once deemed heretical by its own revolutionary ethos.
'Kneel before Iran' campaign
Tehran’s Revolution (Enghelab) Square was the scene of an unusual spectacle on Friday as officials unveiled a massive bronze statue depicting Roman Emperor Valerian kneeling in submission before Sassanid King Shapur I, commemorating Iran’s victory at the Battle of Edessa (260 AD).
The event was held under the slogan “Kneel before Iran,” part of what authorities describe as a campaign to project “national unity and historical pride” following the June war with Israel.
Tehran Mayor Alireza Zakani, a staunch ultraconservative, said on X: “Enmity with Great Iran can only end in kneeling before this historic nation.”
Municipal official Davood Goodarzi said the installation would be accompanied by visual displays depicting “other victories of Iranians over foreign aggressors,” including the defeat of British forces by local commander Rais-Ali Delvari, Mirza Kuchak Khan’s resistance against Russian troops, and Surena’s triumph over Rome at the Battle of Carrhae in 53 BCE.
The goal, Goodarzi said, is “strengthening concepts such as national dignity, social unity, and Iranian identity.”
The statue, he said, would remain temporarily at Revolution Square before being moved to a city gateway “where it will stand as the first emblem of Iran before diplomats and foreign visitors.”
Unveiled women were allowed to attend the unveiling ceremony—an uncommon scene at events organized by Tehran’s ultra-hardline municipality.
The turn to the pre-Islamic past
The sharp reversal also recalls remarks once made by Khamenei. In a 2011 speech, he asserted that “all the great military victories of this nation came after Islam,” dismissing pre-Islamic accounts as “things that are not documented.”
In 1987, he had said that prophets triumphed over kings such as Cyrus and that “nothing remains of these monarchs in history but names remembered with derision.”
Nevertheless, pro-government social media accounts have now gone so far as to circulate posters equating Khamenei himself with Shapur, showing him standing with a staff as Benjamin Netanyahu and Donald Trump kneel before him. The caption reads: “You will kneel before Iran.”
'Hypocrisy'
Pro-government figures have hailed the move as a patriotic success. Conservative political reporter Hossein Saremi posted: “Today’s grand Iranian gathering showed that people and the state share one essence: Iran itself. Nothing can take our homeland away.”
Others, however, called the spectacle “hypocrisy.” Journalist Gholamhossein Pashaei wrote on X: “Every year you close Pasargadae to stop people from celebrating Cyrus Day, yet you unveil Shapur’s statue in Enghelab Square with drums and fireworks during Fatimiyya (mourning period)!”
Dissident commentator Hamid Asafi called the ceremony “a perfect snapshot of the Islamic Republic’s contradictions.”
On Telegram he wrote: “A week ago they closed Cyrus’s tomb out of fear of the crowds, and now they glorify Shapur in the same breath. The Islamic Republic fears living history but poses for selfies with its corpse.”
He added: “They know people no longer respond to rosaries and sermons. That’s why they’ve brought history back to the stage—in a controlled costume. If they can’t erase the past, they’ll try to own it.”
The irony deepened as UNESCO formally recognized Cyrus’s Charter as one of the earliest human-rights documents.
President Masoud Pezeshkian wrote on X: “Iran, the cradle of dialogue, justice, and coexistence, can still inspire peace today.”
Users swiftly replied, questioning how such pride could coexist with a government that blocks access to Cyrus’s tomb each year to those wishing to visit it on his birthday.