Iran’s oil minister denies export decline, calls it ‘psychological warfare’

During a roundtable discussion hosted by Sazandegi newspaper, conservative politician and Expediency Council member Mohammad Reza Bahonar, former senior lawmaker and centrist politician Hossein Marashi, and Mahmoud Vaezi, a senior aide to former president Hassan Rouhani, carefully avoided directly naming Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei as the ultimate authority responsible for the country’s major shortcomings.

They spoke cautiously, as some of their critical remarks touched on highly sensitive topics, including constitutional changes and political reforms. The veteran political insiders would not have voiced such criticisms publicly two or three years ago, before Iran's regional influence began to wane and its economic situation reached a critical stage.

They highlighted issues including the government's lack of resources, largely due to massive expenditures in the Middle East aimed at undermining Israel—spending that was undertaken without the consent of the Iranian people or parliament (Majles), as they noted.

Marashi said, "Iran's priority should be addressing its economic crisis," and "politics in Iran should not be left to military organizations," likely referring to the central role the Revolutionary Guards play both in political and economic spheres.

He added: “The government’s priorities remain focused on outdated ideological issues, such as enforcing the hijab on women and restricting access to information on the Internet, rather than tackling the country’s pressing economic crises.”

These failures have left the nation struggling in darkness and cold since November, as the oil-rich country continues to fall short in producing sufficient natural gas and electricity in generating sufficient oil export revenues.

A huge part of the country's income from oil is kept outside the government's treasury and under direct supervision of the Supreme Leader and the Revolutionary Guard.

On December 16 all government offices and schools in 26 of the 31 Iranian provinces were shut down due to blackouts, power shortages and consumption of pollutant fuels in many power plants.

Without elaborating on what was wrong with the Iranian Constitutional Law, Bahonar said that “all the articles of the constitution can be revised except a few that are about the essence of Islam and the nature of the political system as a republic.”

His remarks likely implied that institutions such as the Guardian Council, which hinder free and fair elections, could be dismantled, and that articles granting extraordinary powers to the Supreme Leader could be revised. This would help curb unnecessary spending on religious institutions and costly military ventures abroad.

Elsewhere in their debate, the three politicians said that many of Iran's problems are caused by flaws in the structure of its political system. Without saying how the current system has led to a dictatorship under the Supreme Leader, they called for a democratic political system like those in Japan, Pakistan, Germany, France and the United States.

Marashi criticized Pezeshkian for taking pride in lacking a clear plan for his government or a political party to advance his ideas. He also pointed to the Islamic Republic’s core doctrine, which centers on its ongoing struggle against what it calls “arrogant powers”—a concept now largely synonymous with anti-Americanism.

He argued that “this doctrine cannot drive meaningful progress and must be reformed, much like how China abandoned its rigid ideological approach to achieve development.”

Marashi went on to question the extensive powers of Iran's Judiciary and the absence of judicial independence. He also criticized the current Majles for consistently obstructing the government’s ability to fulfill its responsibilities.

Additionally, he emphasized that Iran’s economy has been held hostage by its nuclear program for the past 19 years. Highlighting the fall of Bashar al-Assad in Syria, he said: “Even maintaining our allies in power depends on prioritizing the economy.”

At the same time, perhaps in an effort to absolve President Masoud Pezeshkian of responsibility for the current crises, three other conservative figures, in reports published by Nameh News website, emphasized that "the Pezeshkian administration has inherited the current economic and political problems from previous governments."

“Everyone, especially women, should be vigilant about the enemy’s soft tactics and not be deceived by slogans and temptations,” Khamenei said in a meeting with a group of women on Tuesday.

"They label it as defending women, advocating for women's rights, or supporting a group of women," he added, pointing to the 'Woman, Life, Freedom' movement. "Yet, under the pretext of defending a single woman, they incite unrest in the country."

The 2022 Woman, Life, Freedom movement began after the death of 22-year-old Mahsa Amini in police custody. The ensuing crackdown, which led to the deaths of at least 550 protesters, was described as a crime against humanity by a UN fact-finding mission.

In his first public statements following the uprising in 2022, Khamenei said the protests had been engineered by Iran's enemies and their allies.

As the hijab war continues, the government has now officially postponed the implementation of the latest and most controversial hijab law, which imposes severe penalties on women and girls who defy veiling requirements, following widespread backlash from the public and international community.

Iran's Supreme National Security Council, in a letter to parliament on Saturday, requested that the implementation of the Hijab and Chastity law be halted. A member of the parliament's presiding board stated that this delay is to allow the government to submit an amended version of the bill for parliamentary review.

Last week, Amnesty International condemned the new law, stating that it intensifies the oppression of women and girls while exposing activists opposing the rules to charges that carry the death penalty.

Amnesty noted that the law, drafted in May 2023, less than a year after the Woman, Life, Freedom uprising, was introduced in response to widespread defiance of compulsory veiling by women and girls.

Iran-backed forces will endure - Khamenei

In his speech, Khamenei emphasized that Tehran's armed groups in the region, including Hamas and Hezbollah, remain strong despite significant challenges posed by external forces.

Addressing the situations in Gaza, Lebanon, and Syria, Khamenei condemned the actions of the United States and Israel, calling their assumption that resistance would end a grave miscalculation.

"They thought resistance was over," Khamenei said. "They are gravely mistaken. The spirit of Seyyed Hassan Nasrallah is alive; the spirit of Sinwar is alive. Their martyrdom has not removed them from existence. Their path continues."

Khamenei dismissed Israel's military operations in Syria, warning that its efforts to encircle and eliminate Hezbollah forces would ultimately fail. "The one who will be uprooted is Israel," he said.

While Israel maintains that it has no interest in conflict with Syria and rarely comments on specific strikes, it has carried out a series of operations targeting weapons facilities and military infrastructure. Since the fall of President Bashar al-Assad, Israel has intensified strikes against military installations across the country.

On Monday, multiple large explosions rocked Syria's coastal areas — home to Russian and pro-Assad military bases, according to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights.

Israel also maintains troop presence inside the buffer zone and beyond, citing efforts to prevent a repeat of the October 7 attacks, in which Iran-backed Hamas infiltrated Israeli territory, killing over 1,100 people and taking more than 250 hostages.

“I prefer not to use the word ‘imminent'," he said. "This is on the agenda, and as soon as the necessary conditions are met—both in terms of security and politics—we will move forward with reopening the embassy."

Video footage shared on the day President Bashar al-Assad fled to Moscow showed militants in the embassy, ransacking documents and vandalizing the facility, with shattered glass and broken furniture seen around the building. Iranian media reported that the staff had fled before it was taken over.

Addressing comments made on Monday by the EU foreign policy chief, Kaja Kallas, that Iran and Russia should have no role in Syria's future, Baghaei said: “This is an interesting joke, and I think when she made this comment, she was probably reading history books. The era when foreign powers could dictate to other regions is over.”

Explaining Iran's role in Syria, Baghaei said: “Our presence in Syria was fundamental and principled, and our withdrawal was responsible. We were not seeking expansionism, dominance, or the revival of past empires. What mattered to us in Syria was helping ensure its security in the fight against terrorism.”

Syria, under Assad, was a key component of Iran’s so-called 'Axis of Resistance,' serving as a vital land corridor for supplying weapons and materiel to Hezbollah in Lebanon. Over the years, Israel sought to disrupt this supply line through hundreds of airstrikes.

During the briefing, he also addressed remarks made by several Iranian politicians that Assad government owes approximately $30 to $50 billion to Iran.

He said the number were exaggerated, saying that the debts will be transferred to Syria's new political system based on the principle of state succession. "These figures, such as the claim of a $50 billion debt owed to Iran by Syria, are truly very exaggerated."

As Iran looks to its future after a battered Syria, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian will attend the D-8 summit in Egypt, the spokesman confirmed on Tuesday. The summit of the eight major Muslim developing countries, known as the D-8 Organization for Economic Cooperation, will be held on Thursday.

This news analysis comes after Bashar al-Assad in Syria lost his grip on power after support from Iran and its ally Hezbollah were sapped by over a year of conflict with Israel.

Prime Minister Mohammed Shia' al-Sudani, whose tenure is supported in part by Iran-backed armed groups, may now face pressure to prioritize Iraq’s sovereignty over foreign influence according to the daily.

"Iraq remains internally divided over the repercussions of the situation in Syria, with some still supporting intervention at this point. Factions and some actors in the Shiite political scene align with this view, consistent with Tehran’s stance, which has announced the continuation of resistance," wrote Al-Mada.

The Committee to Protect Journalists has said Al-Mada "is seen as one of the only remaining critical newspapers in Iraq".

Operating under the umbrella of the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF) and supported by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), these groups wield considerable power over Iraq’s governance, military operations, and energy infrastructure.

Despite their original mandate to combat ISIS, many of the militias have since expanded their activities, frequently targeting US forces and installations in Iraq with rockets and drones, and exacerbating tensions between Tehran and Washington.

The paper also highlighted fears of broader regional destabilization following the fall of Bashar al-Assad in Syria, a key ally of Iran.

"Political forces have started warning about scenarios similar to Syria’s situation if rapid internal reforms are not implemented," wrote Al-Mada, citing thinktanks advising Iraqi government to distance itself from the poor governance of the Shiite political forces that have held power since 2003.

Tehran’s armed affiliates in Iraq may be weakened by the developments in Syria. The Australian Arab Institute for Strategic Affairs recently warned that Baghdad faces a critical juncture: either curb the influence of Iran-backed militias or risk becoming a target for escalating Israeli and US military operations.

Adding to the uncertainty are concerns about the potential reactivation of ISIS sleeper cells given the security vacuum next door.

“Iraq is trying to maintain a somewhat balanced relationship with Washington and not align itself entirely with Tehran,” Rahim al-Aboudi, a senior official in the National Wisdom Movement, was quoted as saying.

Growing public discontent

Domestically, public anger toward Iran’s proxies has intensified in recent years, particularly after their violent suppression of 2019 anti-government protests which criticized Iranian influence.

Social media has amplified these frustrations, with posts encouraging attacks on the Iranian embassy and measures to end the activities of armed groups backed by Tehran.

“Numerous individuals or fake accounts have called for citizens to arm themselves in opposition to Iran-backed forces,” Truske Sadeghi, a former Iran International correspondent posted on X.

The warnings of instability echo fears of a repeat of Iraq’s tumultuous recent past.

Unlike the ISIS incursions of 2014 which originated from Syria, analysts warn that any future unrest could arise from within Iraq’s cities, fueled by the same grievances that sparked the 2019 protests but on a potentially larger scale.

While Baghdad has reiterated that its borders are secure, the government’s inability to effectively manage the influence of IRGC-backed militias has left the country vulnerable to both domestic upheaval and regional spillovers.

As Iraq navigates mounting international and domestic pressures, its leadership could face a critical choice: assert greater control over Tehran-backed forces or risk a deeper descent into instability.

Having lost Syria in a dramatic and unexpected turn of events, Iran’s hardliners find themselves with little to defend their position. They have shifted their focus to heavily campaigning for the implementation of a restrictive new hijab law, while attempting to deflect blame for the insurgents' victory onto their long-time ally Assad. Some hardliners argue that Assad lacked sufficient commitment to Tehran’s “axis of resistance,” yet they struggle to explain why the Revolutionary Guard did not make greater efforts to defend him.

Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei attempted to address the issue on December 11, claiming that the United States and Israel had blocked all land and air routes to Syria. However, this explanation was widely viewed as unconvincing, particularly given Tehran’s long-standing boasts of regional supremacy.

On Saturday, the country’s national security council decided to shelve the hijab law, bowing to public opposition as well as criticism from numerous current and former officials, along with commentators permitted to speak through tightly-controlled media channels.

Despite this, hardliner Foad Izadi sparked widespread backlash on social media and Iranian news websites by arguing that the insistence on hijab enforcement serves a political purpose for the Islamic government. He claimed that supporters of the political system expect religious laws to be taken seriously by officials, warning that failing to do so risks eroding the Islamic Republic’s base of loyal supporters.

"The Islamic Republic does not see its benefit in giving in, because it believes the locomotive of the train it is riding on consists of a hard core of supporters who are loyal precisely because of these [policies]. If the Islamic Republic compromises on a few principles, this core of loyalists will be the first group to step off the train,” Izadi said during a video discussion published online.

Ironically, Izadi, who has become a staunch ideologue for Iran's hardliners, was educated in the United States from an early age and holds a PhD from the University of Louisiana. This apparent contradiction was not lost on a commentator from the reformist Aftab News website, who criticized Izadi for advocating hardline policies after benefiting from an education abroad.

Meanwhile, the relatively moderate Rouydad24 published a scathing article on Sunday targeting Izadi and his peers, accusing them of exploiting the hijab issue to tighten their control over the government. Matin Ghafarian, writing for Rouydad24, argued that these ultra-hardliners are not solely focused on enforcing stricter hijab regulations but are also intent on imposing broader counterproductive policies.

The article warned that such policies would further alienate the public, destabilize the Islamic government, and make it increasingly reliant on hardliner support. Rouydad24 wrote, "These individuals embody their own words—they are not easily satisfied. After making the establishment dependent on themselves, they begin to conquer the system step by step."

The website went even further, accusing ultra-hardliners of using political issues, such as the hijab, as a pretext to expand their influence for financial gain. By pressuring the government to adopt more extreme policies, they have exacerbated economic sanctions and deepened Iran’s isolation. This, in turn, has allowed them to leverage their influence to gain control over key economic sectors under the guise of rescuing the economy, often benefiting from government subsidies in the process.

Rouydad24 concluded, "The demands of this small group will not end until they have fully taken over the country’s economy. This group effectively traps the government in a cycle of decline—creating crises and feeding off them. In reality, we are not dealing with a fanatical and hotheaded group, but rather a cunning mafia intent on seizing control of all the country's economic resources."