UN Expert Sees International Courts As Path To Hold Iran Accountable

The cost of household consumption basket has surged to 300 million rials (approximately $500 =) in major cities, making it difficult for people to afford meat products.The price of boneless mutton has reached 9,000,000 rials or about $15 per kilogram. With the minimum monthly salary barely exceeding $150 to $200 per month, many Iranian workers find themselves unable to afford any meat at all.

According to a report by the ILNA news agency, the removal of meat from many household tables has led to eggs becoming the sole protein option for families across the country. The shift reflects the reality of economic challenges faced by Iranians, with meat becoming a luxury beyond reach for many.

The elimination of meat from the diets of many households has resulted in eggs becoming the primary source of protein for families throughout the country, with meat being considered an unaffordable luxury.

Adding to the economic strain, Iran's currency, the rial, on Monday hit an all-time low of 606,000 against the US dollar. The depreciation has further exacerbated the affordability crisis for meat products.

Additionally, the decline in the value of the national currency has led to a surge in fish exports, as it has become more profitable for producers. Consequently, domestic availability of fish has dwindled, exacerbating the protein shortage for consumers.

It is the lowest turnout in the regime's history, with voting figures ranging from 10 to 27 percent, reflecting the government's struggle to retain legitimacy in the face of mass discontent.

While Khamenei stays silent, other regime officials attempt to portray the elections in a positive light, with Minister of Interior Ahmad Vahidi labeling them as "magnificent" and boasting of "the highest standards." However, the claims lack substantiation.

Despite efforts to boost participation, including extending voting hours, the government failed to bring people to the polls. The elections also mark the first since the 2022 mass protests sparked by the death of Mahsa Amini, further highlighting underlying tensions within the nation.

Out of the 290 parliamentary races, results show that Iranian hardline politicians maintained dominance, winning 200 out of the 245 decided seats. The remaining 45 seats will proceed to runoff elections due to candidates failing to secure the mandatory 20% of the vote.

The delay in announcing turnout statistics coupled with limited international observation underscores the opaque nature of Iranian elections.

Turnout

The Guardian Council’s extensive disqualification of candidates prior to the March 1 parliamentary and Assembly of Experts elections gave rise to huge popular discontent. Authorities resorted to relentless propaganda and various measures to ensure the boycott did not affect the turnout.

In the face of polls conducted by government agencies that predicted a very low turnout, state media and those controlled by hardliners, as well as hardline political parties and groups launched a massive campaign before the elections, to ensure high turnout.

The polls were inexplicably extended by six hours although citizen reports indicated that the polling stations were not busy at all even during the regular voting hours.

Voting regulations including requirement of birth certificates, which was necessary in all previous elections, were abolished and voters were allowed to use one of several other forms of IDs including passports. Ballot boxes were provided in many crowded public venues in addition to polling stations.

These measures, however, backfired and many social media users alleged they were only meant to facilitate fraudulent voting.

Not only anti-regime voters, but also many former regime insiders, including Reformists, abstained from voting.

The Phenomenon of Void and Blank Votes

Authorities claim 41 percent of eligible voters participated in the elections. This figure, the lowest in the four-decade history of the Islamic Republic, seems to include the void and blank votes. The total number of votes and blank and void votes has not yet been announced.

Void and blank ballots were abnormally high in nearly every constituency. In some constituencies such as Yazd the number of blank and void ballots is higher than most of the constituency’s top elected representatives.

Blank and void votes are usually cast by those who may have been rounded up and forced to vote against their wish such as government employees, soldiers, and athletes, and could be interpreted as “protest votes”.

According to official figures the number of eligible voters has increased from 57.9 million four years ago to 61.1 million.

Suspicions of Revolutionary Guards Role in Engineering Results

Given the low turnout, the election headquarters of the interior ministry, has been taking their time, despite claims of employing better technology such as computers, to manipulate the numbers, critics say.

After the closure of the polls, the media affiliated with the Revolutionary Guard, including Fars News Agency, announced what they claimed was the turnout figures before the election authorities had provided any information.

Such moves exacerbated suspicions of involvement of the Revolutionary Guards in election engineering and manipulation of numbers. The interior ministry, the principal election authority, only announced partial turnout figures two days later.

The opaque vote count process, coupled with the slow and irregular announcement of results, bears a striking resemblance to the parliamentary elections of 2004, which reformists alleged were engineered by the Khamenei-appointed Guardian Council.

In the presidential elections of 2009, the interior ministry was accused of joining forces with the Guardian Council to ensure the re-election of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.

In both cases, the Revolutionary Guards was accused of masterminding the manipulation of the vote.

Dubious Mandate for Those Elected

The very low number of votes cast in nearly every constituency, notwithstanding the doubts about the accuracy of the figures announced officially, casts doubt on the mandate of those who will be representing constituencies in the parliament.

In many constituencies run-off elections are required and many of those who have secured their seats in the parliament in the first round have only managed to get a fraction of the votes of those eligible in their constituencies.

In the capital Tehran, which has 30 seats and over 7.5 million eligible voters, for instance, the front-runner candidate Mahmoud Nabavian is the only one with over 500,000 votes. The other 13 elected candidates in this round have acquired between 316,000 and 487,000 votes and the remaining 16 will be chosen in the run-off.

Nabavian’s 597,000 votes suggest he will be representing less than 8 percent of the eligible voters. In another constituency – Tabriz, Azarshahr and Oskou – the top elected lawmaker’s votes fall below 100,000, making him the representative of less than 10 percent of the eligible voters.

In spite of both rainfall and flooding, Isa Bozorgzadeh, spokesperson for the Water Industry, told state-owned ILNA on Monday, "The water inflow from Afghanistan to Iran is zero."

Sher Mohammad Abbas Stanikzai, the Taliban's Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs, claimed Afghan citizens' needs come before international allocations. "Currently, there is only enough water to meet the needs of the Afghan citizens, and it is not sufficient to be released towards Iran."

The river, known as Helmand in Afghanistan, holds significant importance as a primary source for agricultural irrigation and potable water supply.

The statements come as, according to the representative of Sistan and Baluchestan, Afghan authorities divert the water of the Helmand River inside their country through canal construction and dams, preventing it from entering Iran.

The issue of Iran's water share from the Helmand has intensified with the resurgence of the Taliban in Afghanistan.

In the past two years, Iranian authorities have claimed that the Taliban has agreed to allocate 820 million cubic meters of Iran's water share from the Helmand annually, but neither the Taliban has confirmed such an agreement nor has any water been released towards Iran.

On Monday morning, the US dollar was being traded for 606,000 rials, marking the highest recorded price for the American currency in Iran. This represents a nearly 20 percent drop since early January, coinciding with heightened tensions in the Middle East.

The depreciation comes as a culmination of factors including the failure of nuclear negotiations with the United States and its European allies, and the consolidation of power by Iranian hardliners since March 2022.

In addition to the US dollar, the Euro was traded at 647,000 rials and the British pound hovered near 760,000 rials on Tehran's black market on Monday.

The decline of the rial has been a prolonged trend since the 1979 revolution, but it accelerated notably in 2018 following the US withdrawal from the JCPOA nuclear deal and the imposition of sanctions on Iran's oil exports and banking sector. Remarkably, the currency was valued at 70 rials per dollar in 1978.

The sharp devaluation of the rial has exacerbated inflationary pressures over the past five years, pushing millions of Iranians below the poverty line. Official government statistics indicate an annual inflation rate of over 40 percent, though many believe the actual figure to be higher.

The ongoing economic crisis has undermined the legitimacy of the Islamic government, particularly in the eyes of voters. The majority of Iranians abstained from participating in the Friday elections due to economic and social disillusionment and discontent.