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Iran's future lies in women and everyday defiance, historian says

Negar Mojtahedi
Negar Mojtahedi

Iran International

Aug 22, 2025, 22:12 GMT+1Updated: 02:57 GMT+0
Unveiled Iranian girl dances around a bonfire during height of Woman, Life, Freedom movement in 2022.
Unveiled Iranian girl dances around a bonfire during height of Woman, Life, Freedom movement in 2022.

Stanford professor and historian Abbas Milani says the Islamic Republic's real opposition is not abroad but inside the country: women walking unveiled, teachers refusing propaganda, and artists reimagining history.

Milani told Eye for Iran podcast that Iranian women are at the heart of today’s opposition.

“The Iranian woman who decides to walk in the streets of Tehran, Shiraz, Bandar Abbas, without a veil… that’s the most potent opposition to this regime,” he said.

Despite intensified crackdowns, women continue to defy compulsory hijab laws.

Public opinion surveys point in the same direction. A poll conducted last summer involving more than 77,000 people found that a majority reject the Islamic Republic and favor either regime change or a structural transition.

Milani said the most authentic expressions of opposition are found in cultural acts, not exile politics.

“It is the manifesto of the future of Iran,” he said.

Milani highlighted a recent production at Stanford University by acclaimed playwright Bahram Beyzaie, a reinterpretation of the revolution through the eyes of women. The play drew widespread interest inside Iran, with audiences requesting online access, while receiving little notice outside.

Awakening from a 'nightmare'

“Iranians have woken up from this nightmare,” Milani said referring to the Islamic Republic, “but now they need to get rid of the source of this nightmare, which is dogmatism, which is religious domination, which is velayat-e faqih. (Guardianship of the Islamic Jurist)"

Milani’s remarks come as Iran faces one of its harshest crackdowns in decades. Rights groups say more than 1,000 people have been executed in the past year, many in public.

In Isfahan, authorities have begun ordering the confiscation of Baha’i homes and assets — a move the community’s representatives described to Iran International as “economic strangulation.”

Meanwhile, the Supreme Court has upheld the death sentence of labor activist Sharifeh Mohammadi, and women’s rights defender Hasti Amiri has been sentenced to three years in prison after protesting executions and appearing unveiled in public.

The long shadow of 1953

Milani argues that Iranians have too often been trapped in emotional narratives of the 1953 coup orchestrated by the CIA and the 1979 Islamic Revolution, casting the monarchy and the Islamic Republic in black-and-white terms.

"The Shah was, at worst, an authoritarian leader. At best, he was a modernizer,” Milani said. “This regime, at best, is a pseudo-totalitarian regime. And at worst, totalitarian.”

The difference, Milani said, is that while the monarchy did not attempt to reshape private lives, the Islamic Republic has tried to engineer a “new man and woman,” reducing women to second-class citizens and criminalizing dissent.

Former Iranian Premier Mohammad Mossadegh is sentenced to three years' solitary confinement by a military court in Tehran, December 21, 1953.Credit: STR / ASSOCIATED PRESS
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Former Iranian Premier Mohammad Mossadegh is sentenced to three years' solitary confinement by a military court in Tehran, December 21, 1953.Credit: STR / ASSOCIATED PRESS

Milani argued that younger Iranians are less interested in “black and white” narratives about 1953 that toppled the democratically elected government of Mohammad Mosaddegh, and more focused on freedom, equality, and dignity in their daily lives.

The Islamic Republic has long invoked the 1953 coup to justify hostility toward the United States, while downplaying the fact that Mosaddegh’s supporters were outlawed after 1979.

In 2023, the CIA for the first time described its role in ousting Mosaddegh as “undemocratic.” Yet Milani says the coup cannot be reduced to CIA intrigue alone, arguing that Iran’s clergy were decisive in turning against Mosaddegh.

Iran's future in people's hands

Seven decades on, he believes the lesson is clear: Iran’s future will not be decided by nostalgia or in-exile politics but by the resilience of ordinary citizens.

“The future of Iran,” Milani said, “is in the hands of those women, those teachers, those citizens who refuse to live by this ideology. They are the opposition to this regime.”

“Iranian society is more represented by intellectuals who used to be religious and now go and kiss the feet of a Baha’i and say, I’m sorry for everything we have done to you,” he added. “That’s the future of Iran. Those women are the future of Iran. They are the opposition to this regime.”

You can watch the full episode of Eye for Iran on YouTube or listen on any major podcast platform like Spotify, Apple, Amazon, or Castbox.

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Iran, Europe make no headway in talks before ‘snapback’ deadline - reports

Aug 22, 2025, 21:55 GMT+1

Friday’s talks between Iran and European powers made no progress, Axios and the Wall Street Journal reported, as a deadline looms for the reimposition of UN sanctions on Tehran under the so-called snapback mechanism.

The E3 have warned Iran they would restore UN sanctions by the end of August unless it reopened talks on its nuclear program immediately and produced concrete results before the deadline.

Iran is set to resume its nuclear talks with France, Germany, and the United Kingdom (the E3) on August 26, Iranian foreign minister Abbas Araghchi said on Friday following a phone call with his British, French, and German counterparts as well as the EU foreign policy chief.

Despite the planned meeting, the Wall Street Journal correspondent Laurence Norman and Axios's Barak Ravid said the talks did not make any progress.

"The Iranian foreign minister didn't come with any new proposal or idea on addressing concerns regarding the nuclear program," Axios reported citing an informed source.

The Axios report said the call started "in a confrontational tone with the Iranian foreign minister ranting about whether E3 have the right to trigger snapback."

“After E3 pushback, Araghchi expressed some openness to an extension of the snapback but stressed this is for the United Nations Security Council to decide, not for Iran,” the report said citing an unnamed source.

On Friday, Iran's top security official rejected the European proposal for the extension of the August deadline, saying, "Some countries have requested a six-month extension [of snapback deadline], but Iran does not agree."

"We had an agreement that was supposed to be completed within 10 years; it's not meant to be extended repeatedly. This is just rule-twisting, and we do not accept it," Ali Larijani said in an interview with the Supreme Leader's website.

The “snapback” or “trigger mechanism” is part of UN Security Council Resolution 2231, which endorsed the 2015 nuclear deal known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA).

Under Resolution 2231, any party to the accord can file a complaint accusing Iran of non-compliance. If no agreement is reached within 30 days to maintain sanctions relief, all previous UN sanctions automatically “snap back,” including arms embargoes, cargo inspections, and missile restrictions.

Russia’s representative to international organizations in Vienna criticized the E3’s position on X, saying they should consider the consequences of the policy they are pursuing.

No interest in talks with US

Shortly after the call with Araghchi, EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas stressed that Iran's engagement with the United States and cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) are crucial.

However, Araghchi showed no willingness or intent to engage in further conversations with Washington, according to Axios.

“The Iranian foreign minister didn’t express willingness to resume talks with the United States and claimed it is the US that isn’t interested in negotiations,” Ravid reported.

Larijani echoed that position on Friday, saying the United States must first show genuine intent.

“Genuine negotiation takes place when the other side understands that war is useless, that Iran will not surrender under pressure, and that Iranians are not the kind to give in,” Larijani said.

Massimo Aparo, Deputy Director General and Head of the IAEA Safeguards Department, visited Iran on August 11, but no framework for inspections has yet been announced.

“Araghchi claimed Iran is cooperating with the IAEA and gave no indication that Iran might allow access to UN inspectors,” Ravid said.

According to Axios, the Iranian foreign minister also gave no information about the whereabouts of Iran’s stockpile of 60% enriched uranium, insisting that they are hidden under rubble and inaccessible.

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Taliban weaponizing water as Iran officials keep mum, Tehran daily warns

Aug 22, 2025, 21:22 GMT+1
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Maryam Sinaiee

A conservative daily in Tehran has accused the Taliban of deliberately withholding water to pressure Iran, urging the government to use diplomatic, economic and other tools to punish the group.

"The Taliban are intentionally cutting water flows to Iran," the Jomhouri Eslami newspaper said earlier this week in an editorial titled "End Taliban’s Impudence", warning against what it called the inaction of Iranian officials in the face of the Taliban’s “hostile conduct.”

The newspaper described Afghanistan’s now officially inaugurated Pashdan Dam as the Taliban’s “second major water blow to Iran” after refusing to deliver Iran’s allotted share of the Helmand River (Hirmand in Persian) in recent years.

Satellite images in March showed that Afghanistan was diverting the water into its Gowd-i zerreh salt flat despite promises.

Afghan dams cutting Iran's water supply

According to Khorasan newspaper, the diversion of the Harirud River to fill the Pashdan Dam in Herat Province has led to the drying up of the Doosti Dam on the Iran–Turkmenistan border—the main drinking water source for Mashhad, Iran’s second-largest city.

The 1973 Helmand River Treaty grants Iran an average flow of 26 cubic meters per second (around 820 million cubic meters annually), though drought conditions allow for reductions.

The Kamal Khan Dam, inaugurated in March 2021 under President Ashraf Ghani, fueled Iranian fears of reduced Helmand flows. Kabul framed the project as a sovereign right, while Tehran viewed it as a treaty violation.

The Helmand once sustained the Hamoun wetlands, Iran’s third-largest lake system. Prolonged droughts, damming, and contested releases have dried the wetlands, devastating Sistan-and-Baluchestan.

The construction of Pashdan Dam, the second Afghan dam affecting Iran, began before the Taliban retook Kabul. Seeking legitimacy through visible projects, the Taliban completed the dam and began impoundment in December 2024, with full inauguration announced a few days ago.

Criticism of Tehran’s 'concessions'

Jomhouri Eslami also accused successive Iranian governments, especially that of late President Ebrahim Raisi, of overlooking Taliban hostility while offering “political and economic concessions.”

“Out of fear of public opinion, they could not formally recognize the Taliban’s illegitimate rule in Afghanistan but still offered it all the privileges normally reserved for a recognized government,” the paper wrote.

The editorial charged that by remaining silent on water disputes, Iranian authorities have “encouraged the Taliban’s boldness.”

It said it is “not calling for harsh measures,” but urging political and economic pressure, alongside tighter control over unauthorized Afghan migrants, to restrain the group.

Iran-Taliban relations since 2021

When the Taliban retook Kabul in August 2021, Iran pursued a pragmatic policy: avoiding formal recognition but maintaining contacts to manage trade, refugees, border security, and above all, water.

During the Kamal Khan Dam’s inauguration in 2021, Ashraf Ghani suggested that Afghanistan might “trade water for oil.” Since then, Iranian media have suggested that the Taliban, too, is using water as a bargaining chip—pressuring Tehran to recognize its government.

In January 2025, Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi became the first Iranian foreign minister in eight years to visit Kabul, seeking to address refugees, border tensions, and Helmand treaty obligations. The visit underscored how water disputes now dominate the bilateral agenda.

Jomhouri Eslami described Araghchi’s visit to Kabul as a “grave diplomatic mistake,” criticizing the government for ignoring what it suggested was deliberate desiccation of Mashhad’s primary water supply.

The government of President Masoud Pezeshkian has stepped up deportations of undocumented Afghans, with more than 1 million expelled since January. The Taliban have condemned the expulsions as violations of both international norms and Islamic principles.

However, the two sides have also engaged in pragmatic cooperation despite tensions. A recent report claimed that Iran’s Revolutionary Guard got a leaked British Ministry of Defense database from the Taliban, hoping to use it to detain suspects as bargaining chips in nuclear talks while the Taliban seeks recognition as Afghanistan’s rulers.

The Telegraph reported on Thursday that the Taliban are transferring three Afghans suspected of spying for Britain to Iran. The move is part of the secret agreement between the two governments to coordinate arrests of Afghans who worked with British forces.

War with Israel not over, Iran's top security official says

Aug 22, 2025, 19:50 GMT+1

Iran must remain prepared for a fresh round of conflict as the war with Israel is not over, the Islamic Republic's top security official Ali Larijani said two months after a US-brokered ceasefire put an end to a 12-day war between Iran and Israel.

The Islamic Republic needs to "create capacities so that the enemy will not be tempted to take action again," Larijani said in an interview with the Supreme Leader's official website, published on Friday.

"Right now, since we are engaged in a war currently paused by a ceasefire, this is therefore an important matter that we must pay attention to."

Israel launched a surprise military campaign on June 13 targeting Iran's military and nuclear sites, killing 1,062 people including 276 civilians.

Iran responded with missile strikes that killed 31 civilians and one off-duty soldier, according to official figures published by the Israeli government.

Larijani's remarks are the latest in a series of combative comments from leaders on both sides, with Israel’s army chief vowing readiness for further strikes and Iran’s General Staff warning of “a far stronger response” to any future attacks by the United States or Israel.

A top military adviser to Iran’s supreme leader warned last week that another war with Israel or the United States was likely, dismissing the current ceasefire as just another phase in the conflict.

“We are not in a ceasefire, we are in a stage of war. No protocol, regulation, or agreement has been written between us and the US or Israel,” said senior Revolutionary Guards (IRGC) general Yahya Rahim Safavi.

The Israeli war started on the eve of the sixth round of Iran's negotiations with the United States over its disputed nuclear program.

Asked whether Tehran would focus on continued negotiations or consider other options, Larijani said talks will always remain an important tool.

“Genuine negotiation takes place when the other side understands that war is useless, that Iran will not surrender under pressure, and that Iranians are not the kind to give in,” Larijani added in his interview with Khamenei's website.

Last week he said during a visit to Lebanon that “if the United States realizes it cannot defeat the Islamic Republic through war and then seeks negotiations, we will respond positively. But if they negotiate only to prepare for the next war, it will be of no benefit to us."

Iran won't accept offer to extend snapback deadline

Iran and France, Germany, and the United Kingdom (the E3) are expected to resume their nuclear talks on August 26, Iran’s foreign minister said Friday, following a phone call with his counterparts from the three European countries and the European Union’s foreign policy chief.

Iranian diplomats last met with representatives of the three European countries in Istanbul on July 25.

The E3 have warned Iran they would restore UN sanctions under the so-called "snapback" mechanism by the end of August unless it reopened talks on its nuclear program immediately and produced concrete results before the deadline.

“Logic suggests resolving issues via talks, not pressure. Some use threats like snapback, but disagreements persist over its application,” Larijani said.

Iran's top security official referred to a European proposal for the extension of the August deadline, saying, "Some countries have requested a six-month extension [of snapback deadline], but Iran does not agree."

"We had an agreement that was supposed to be completed within 10 years; it's not meant to be extended repeatedly. This is just rule-twisting, and we do not accept it."

The ‘snapback’ or ‘trigger mechanism’ is part of UN Security Council Resolution 2231, which endorsed the 2015 nuclear deal known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA).

Under Resolution 2231, any party to the accord can file a complaint accusing Iran of non-compliance. If no agreement is reached within 30 days to maintain sanctions relief, all previous UN sanctions automatically ‘snap back,’ including arms embargoes, cargo inspections, and missile restrictions.

“Disagreement exists over the trigger mechanism. Iran rejects it as a new cycle of extensions that violates the original 10-year deal. Some domestically favor short-term acceptance, but we do not. Its activation in the Security Council remains contentious,” Larijani said.

Asked whether Iran might consider leaving the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) in response to the possible return of UN sanctions, Larijani said the treaty is both a signal of intent and a benchmark for bomb-seeking behavior.

“NPT acceptance depends on intent. We're not seeking bombs, so the NPT is fine, but it has not benefited us,” Larijani said.

US Air Force seeks to replicate Iran’s Shahed suicide drone – Pentagon daily

Aug 22, 2025, 19:17 GMT+1

The United States Air Force is seeking information to acquire copies of Iran’s Shahed-136 drone for study and training purposes, a report by the Pentagon-owned newspaper Stars and Stripes said.

According to federal documents, the Air Force seeks 16 replicas of the Shahed-136, with the option to procure 20 more in the future.

“This acquisition aims to leverage drones representative of the Shahed-136, which is currently used by adversarial countries and is being encountered in multiple areas of operation,” the request for information (RFI) said.

Shahed drones are slow, low-flying, and harder to detect on radar compared to fighter jets or bombers.

Stars and Stripes quoted an expert as saying that the initiative is likely intended to help US forces practice countering and eliminating such threats.

The Shahed-136 was first publicly revealed in 2021 during an Iranian military exercise. Its affordability, swarm tactics, and export success have made it a game-changer in asymmetric warfare especially the Russia-Ukraine war.

In July, the United States unveiled its own low-cost drone, the LUCAS (Low-Cost Uncrewed Combat Attack System), developed by Arizona-based SpektreWorks.

The Shahed-136 is a pusher-propelled, delta-wing drone armed with a 50-kilogram warhead, capable of flying up to 2,500 kilometers (1,500 miles) at a speed of around 185 km/h (114 mph).

Iran began exporting Shahed drones to Russia after the invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Russia has since started producing the drone domestically, modifying it for higher speed to evade air defenses and renaming it Geran (Geranium), following a Soviet-era tradition of naming weapons after flowers.

Russia frequently deploys Shahed drones alongside ballistic missile salvos to overwhelm Ukrainian air defense systems.

Isolated allies: Iran turns to Belarus as sanctions leave few partners

Aug 22, 2025, 18:56 GMT+1
•
Maryam Sinaiee

Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian visited Belarus this week, a heavily sanctioned Russian ally, in a trip that highlighted how Tehran’s “Look East” strategy ties it more closely to Moscow and Beijing and their sanctioned partners.

Tehran has framed the August 20 visit as part of a concerted move against Western pressure.

Iran newspaper, the administration’s mouthpiece, wrote that the president’s decision to visit Minsk was a logical continuation of Tehran’s foreign policy—a policy emphasizing a multipolar world, national sovereignty, independence, and resistance to coercion.”

Similarly, Nour News, close to Ali Khamenei's top advisor Ali Shamkhani, described the trip as a “clear message against global unilateralism and sanctions.”

Consolidating the 'Look East' strategy

For many observers, the choice of Belarus as one of Pezeshkian’s first foreign destinations after the 12-day war with Israel was a deliberate statement of intent.

Esfandiar Khodaee, a foreign relations commentator, wrote in Khabar Online that the visit showed the “Looking East” policy was no longer just a legacy of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad or Ebrahim Raisi, but “a standing pillar of the Islamic Republic’s foreign policy.”

The approach traces back to Ahmadinejad’s presidency, when Tehran expanded ties with China, Russia, India, and members of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization. Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei reaffirmed the policy in 2018 with the slogan “Looking East,” emphasizing reliance on non-Western partners as sanctions mounted.

Analysts note that Europe’s hardened stance on Iran’s nuclear file—coupled with escalating US sanctions—has pushed Tehran further into Russia’s orbit.

As a commentary published by Moj News Agency put it, “Tehran’s choice of Belarus at this moment highlights its prioritization of ties with anti-Western, pro-Russian states—especially as Europe in recent months has shown no flexibility in its dealings with Iran.”

"Those who say we shouldn’t work with China and Russia — do they mean we should stand alone?" Ali Larijani, the secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council said in an interview with Khamenei's website published on Friday.

"Well, when the Westerners don’t work with us, we work with China, we work with other countries," he added.

A message of resilience

Belarus, like Iran, is heavily sanctioned and has faced sharp international isolation since aligning with Moscow over the war in Ukraine. Both states thus share an interest in showcasing resilience against sanctions.

Alireza Salimi, a member of parliament’s presiding board, told ISNA that the president’s visits to Armenia and Belarus sent a message that Iran is “sanctions-proof”.

The rhetoric was reinforced by the agreements signed in Minsk. Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi announced that Tehran and Minsk were upgrading their Comprehensive Cooperation Roadmap for 2023–2026 into a strategic partnership agreement.

The two sides also discussed closer alignment within the Eurasian Economic Union, BRICS, and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization.

Military and security undertones

Though economic cooperation was highlighted, the military dimension loomed large. Tehran and Minsk have quietly expanded security ties in recent years: an August 2023 defense memorandum paved the way for Belarusian forces to join Iranian drills in 2024, and Iran opened its first military attaché office in Minsk in 2025.

Belarusian officials have recently discussed ramping up missile production, including exploring nuclear-capable options for their Polonez rocket systems. Iran’s expertise in missile development makes it a potential partner and could raise concerns in Western capitals.

Both governments also maintain open support for Moscow’s war effort, a stance that has drawn sharp condemnation from Ukraine and NATO states. Kyiv in particular has repeatedly denounced Tehran’s supply of drones to Russia.

Trade remains modest but symbolic

Despite official optimism, trade between the two countries remains limited. Araghchi said bilateral exchanges totaled $140 million in the first half of 2025—a 14 percent increase from last year, but quite modest.

Even if current volumes are low, both sides see such arrangements as politically symbolic and vital to their shared sanctions-circumvention strategies.

Both governments also see potential in expanding connectivity. Reza Masroor, head of Iran’s Supreme Council of Free and Special Economic Zones, noted that Belarus could gain access to open waters via Iran’s free zones through the Makhachkala–Caspian Port route.

This, he argued, would allow Minsk to bypass Baltic restrictions and connect to the North–South Corridor, enabling exports of potash, agricultural goods, and industrial products to markets in the Middle East, Africa, and beyond.