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Oil could hit $200 if Hormuz Strait closed, Khamenei representative warns

Aug 24, 2025, 01:45 GMT+1
A map showing the Strait of Hormuz and Iran is seen in this illustration created on June 22, 2025.
A map showing the Strait of Hormuz and Iran is seen in this illustration created on June 22, 2025.

A representative of Iran's Supreme Leader has urged restrictions on Western shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, saying such a move would drive global oil prices to $200 and deal an economic blow to Iran's adversaries.

“We can impose restrictions against the United States, France, Britain and Germany in the Strait of Hormuz and not allow them to navigate,” Hossein Shariatmadari, the representative of Ali Khamenei in the hardline Kayhan newspaper told state broadcaster.

“Just by announcing such a restriction, the oil price will surge to $200, and the biggest economic blow will be dealt to the enemy.”

This is not the first time Shariatmadari has raised the prospect of using Hormuz as leverage. Last year, after European sanctions on Iranian airlines, he urged the closure of the waterway to tankers and cargo ships from “hostile countries.”

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Iranian naval vessels patrol the Persian Gulf during a military exercise
Iranian naval vessels patrol the Persian Gulf during a military exercise

At the time, Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said Iran had not issued such a threat despite acknowledging it had the capacity to do so.

Other Iranian officials returned to the theme after US strikes on nuclear facilities earlier this year.

Closing the strait would be disastrous for Iran itself, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio warned in June.

“If they do that, it will be another terrible mistake. It’s economic suicide for them,” he said, urging China to pressure Tehran against such a move.

Any Iranian closure of Hormuz would be “extremely dangerous,” European Union’s foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas said in June, while UK Foreign Secretary David Lammy described it as “a monumental act of self-harm, making a diplomatic solution even harder.”

Global artery under strain

The Strait of Hormuz carries about one-fifth of the world’s oil exports. Iran has never attempted a full closure, but it has disrupted shipping through repeated seizures of commercial vessels.

“Europe and the United States would get miserable” if Tehran restricted oil flows, the Revolutionary Guards–linked Javan newspaper wrote in July, citing a shipping industry figure.

“Even countries with no link to the Iran-Israel war will suffer losses.”

The paper added that greater instability in the Middle East would drive up shipping and insurance costs globally.

Iran’s military loaded naval mines onto vessels in the Persian Gulf after Israeli strikes in June, though the mines were not deployed, according to Reuters.

US officials said the move indicated Tehran was weighing a serious escalation that could cripple global commerce.

Iran’s parliament approved a measure to close the strait in June following US airstrikes, state media reported, though the measure was not binding.

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