As Opposition Grows, Iranian Hardliners Claim Protests Help Them
While many Iranian hardliners deny the damaging impact of protests for the regime, others now claim that the unrest has strengthened the Islamic Republic.
While many Iranian hardliners deny the damaging impact of protests for the regime, others now claim that the unrest has strengthened the Islamic Republic.
Conservative lawmaker Behrouz Mohebbi has claimed the protests revealed the weakness of the opposition. In an interview he said that the Iranian opposition is not powerful and influential because of the discord in its ranks. Meanwhile, the opposition does not have a leader the regime's serious critics would accept.
He further claimed that there is no alternative to the Islamic Republic, and its opposition is not capable of paving the way for democracy in Iran. Mohebbi also added that the Iranian public did not take the opposition seriously.
"The opposition has no acceptable track record. On the other hand, the cultural and political celebrities who opposed the regime have been unmasked during the past months," he said.
The emergence of opposition figures in the diaspora since protests began in September, is a new phenomenon on the Iranian political landscape, as gradually they can coalesce and present a more formidable challenge to the clerical regime.
At the same time, former regime insiders such as ex-prime minister and Green Movement leader Mir-Hossein Mousavi and others made strong public statements this month challenging the regime and demanding a referendum.
Meanwhile, some ask if the protest will empower radical elements in the regime. The fact is that radicals are already in power and even if they increase their influence, it can play into the hands of the opposition and expand the protests.
According to Rouydad24 website in Tehran, protesters demanding an end to the Islamic Republic created the most important challenge for the Islamic Republic since 1979, giving rise to the assumption that the so-called theocratic government in Iran could collapse as the monarchy did 44 years ago.
The report, however, acknowledged that for the time being the Islamic Republic has still the upper hand in the confrontation with the people as a result of the repressive measures taken by security forces, but maintained that the people's anger and the worsening economic situation in Iran will inevitably lead to more protests.
The report added: "The situation is so volatile that even many regime insiders have separated their path from the government. Some top clerics in Qom and An-Najaf and even some military officials have criticized the circle around President Ebrahim Raisi. Even some hardliner news agencies openly criticize Raisi for his economic mismanagement and former insiders, such as ex-President Mohammad Khatami and former Parliamentary Speaker Ali Larijani have condemned the violent crackdown. Yet, there is no indication that anyone in the regime has listened to their complaints."
The report quoted Reza Nasr, a professor of Political Science at Johns Hopkins University, as having said in an article in the Foreign Policy magazine, "Since the start of the crisis, hard-liners have tightened their grip on the reins of power. This faction opposes engagement with the West and does not wish to return to the 2015 nuclear deal. At home, it favors isolationism and tight control of the social and political spheres. Abroad, it favors aggressive regional policies and increasing collaboration with Russia. Far from chastened by the protests, in other words, the regime that is now emerging from the initial phase of the unrest is even more intransigent and potentially aggressive than ever before."
Despite evidence of hardliners having the upper hand for the time being, Expediency Council member Mohammad Javad Bahonar has argued that the protests are deeper and more widespread than in the past five years and that even some of the supporters of the regime have their own grievances and complaints. Meanwhile, former lawmaker and international wrestling champion Amir Reza Khadem has saidthat "Nearly 100 percent of Iranian are unhappy about the current situation. Even the grey strata of the Iranian society, the silent majority, sympathizes with the protests."
Responding to Iranian conservatives' criticism of celebrities' intervention in political affairs, Khadem said that "Celebrities understand the society better than government officials."
In comments on Thursday, outspoken Sunni religious leader Mowlavi Abdolhamid praised Mousavi’s proposal and described it as the result of his understanding about the realities of society, demanding that other politicians see these realities.
“With his recent statement, Mousavi showed that he understood the realities of society. It's time for other politicians and ulema (religious scholars) to think about saving the country and see the facts,” he said. In November, the top Sunni cleric himself had called for an internationally monitored plebiscite, saying that by killing and repression the government cannot push back a nation.
Abdolhamid also criticized over a decade of house arrest imposed on Mousavi, his wife Zahra Rahnavard, and Former Parliament Speaker Mehdi Karroubi, calling it an example of the Islamic Republic’s injustice.
Mousavi and Karroubi both were presidential candidates in 2009, when a highly disputed vote count gave the presidency to Mahmoud Ahmadinejad triggering large popular protests that became known as the Green Movement. Eventually, both Mousavi and Karroubi were put under house arrest in 2011.
Referring to the regime’s violent crackdown on protesters, Mousavi said in his statement that such events have “demonstrated major truths for the nation.” The rulers of the Islamic Republic are not willing “to take the smallest step to meet the demands of the people.” Iran needs a“fundamental change” based on “Woman, Life, Freedom” and constitutional change, he said earlier in the month.
The leader of the Green Movement is known as a staunch reformist, or someone who believes the Islamic Republic can be reformed to become a more democratic and tolerant polity. But Mousavi’s statement rejected reform as a viable alternative, urging fundamental change, a new constitution and a constitutional assembly. Although he did not openly call for regime change, but his demands, if implemented, could lead to a new and democratic political system.
Mousavi in his statement implicitly repeated what exiled Prince Reza Pahlavi has been saying for years, and other opposition activists have echoed in the past five months – transition from the Islamic Republic.
Abdolhamid who has become an outspoken critic of the regime, has stopped short of calling for a new system of government, but endorsing Mousavi’s statement clearly aligns him with political forces that believe the people should be given a chance to decide what kind of government they want.
The 2009 Green Movement leader’s rejection of the reform option in the Islamic Republic has been met with admiration and antipathy alike. Some reformists, including seven prominent political prisoners and over a dozen figures of the ‘religious intellectual movement’, and its mentor Abdolkarim Soroush, have welcomed his proposal, others have strongly rejected it. The political prisoners, including leading reformist politician, Mostafa Tajzadeh and the daughter of Iran former president Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, Faezeh Hashemi, who are behind bars, announced that "they will do their best to advance this proposal and a peaceful and non-violent transition to a completely democratic and developed Iranian structure."
Mousavi’s volte-face can be seen as a milestone in the reformist camp as another bigwig of the movement former president Mohammad Khatami also believes reformism in Iran has reached a deadlock. Mohammad Javad Haqshenas, a prominent reformist figure, said earlier this week that Khatami's statement, which was issued on the 44th anniversary of the 1979 Islamic revolution, should be construed as a premonition for the regime that the Islamic Republic cannot be reformed.
February 11, 2023, marks the forty-fourth anniversary of the establishment of the Islamic Republic of Iran, and many people on social media believe that it is the last time the regime is celebrating the event.
Khamenei who has been dismissing popular protests as “riots” instigated by “enemies” said in a speech that Iranians should "make sure these differences do not turn into faultiness" that would tear apart the nation.
Nonetheless, Khamenei's state of denial about dissent in Iran appears to continue. He repeated that sowing discord and creating differences is the "enemy's strategy."
"The enemy is determined to bring the Islamic regime to its knees," Khamenei said on Wednesday when tens of Iranian army's air force personnel went to visit him on the anniversary of a similar visit to the founder of the Islamic Republic Ruhollah Khomeini in 1979. The air force then paid tribute to Khomeini in defiance of their allegiance to the Shah, but the visit to Khamenei was not politically or otherwise significant.
He said, "15 years ago, a US President, [presumably George W. Bush] wrote to me in a letter that the United States did not intend to overthrow the government in Iran, but intelligence reports indicated that they were mulling a plot to destroy the Islamic Republic."
Reiterating that "the enemies" were adamant to sow discord and create distrust among the people, Khamenei advised that Iranians need to strengthen their unity to foil that plot. He claimed that the rallies to mark the anniversary of the Islamic revolution will manifest this unity.
In fact, five months of protests in the streets against the government have left a fragmented society in Iran where trust in the regime is at its lowest point since Khamenei created his ideal all conservative government and barred others from taking part in the 2020 parliamentary and 2021 presidential elections.
Meanwhile, his insistence on the Islamic revolution being alive and kicking was in sharp contrast to months of protests by women and the youth demanding an end to the Islamic Republic. This time there is no doubt that protesters do not want any reforms or concessions. They demand a secular and democratic government and Khamenei is their first target.
But Khamenei sojourns in his own world and claimed that the Islamic Republic is moving forward toward the peaks of its material and spiritual progress. Material progress seems more like a myth as the government has recently decided to sell public assets and properties to finance its everyday administrative affairs. The national currency is at its historic low and inflation is well above 50 percent.
Meanwhile, sociologists and political observers in Iran have said in numerous studies that the generation-Z was the driving force behind the recent protests and most of those who were jailed for taking part in the protests were born after 2000. But Khamenei claimed that the regime has the hearts and minds of the young generation, showcasing a recent regime stunt of having youngsters in a Quran reading marathon.
In another controversial comment, while he has the final say on all matters of state and dictates all policies to the government, he called on unnamed officials to deliver what people need.
Khamenei also called for national unity, while he had earlier ruled out politicians' suggestions for an attempt at national reconciliation by putting an end to the violent crackdown on protesters.