IRGC Man As New Governor In Restive Region - Economy Or Security
IRGC General Mohammad Karami has been appointed as the new governor of Sistan-Baluchistan province, one of Iran's most volatile and problematic areas in Iran.
IRGC General Mohammad Karami has been appointed as the new governor of Sistan-Baluchistan province, one of Iran's most volatile and problematic areas in Iran.
Like most provincial governors under the Raisi administration, now Sistan and Baluchistan province also has a military man on top of its administrative system. Karami replaced Hossein Modarres Khalili one of the very few civilian provincial governors.
According to Rouydad24 website, Khalili, a man with a background in economic affairs failed to make Ebrahim Raisi's promise of developing the province come true. Raisi, a hardliner, had made the promise in return for the votes the people in the province cast in his favor in the 2021 presidential election. Four years earlier, voters in the poverty-stricken region had cast their ballots mostly for reform-minded candidates.
As the commander of IRGC's Quds Headquarters in southeast Iran, Karami has been the most powerful man in Kerman and Sistan-Baluchistan provinces for several years. The government naturally expects him to help pacify the volatile security situation after months of unrest marked by the IRGC's bloody attack on protesters in Zahedan, the capital of Sistan-Baluchistan on September 30, that killed more than 80 people.
The government also hopes that Karami's past experience will help him to succeed in development projects to alleviate poverty in the region. The former governor's inability to do so led to complaints even among government supporters.
On the other hand, Karami has paid lip service to equality between Shiite and Sunnis. This could be part of the formulaic rhetoric aimed at Sunnis, the number of times he has made such statements may indicate his interest in pacifying the Sunnis who traditionally live in the Baluchistan part of the province as opposed to the Shiite populated Sistan. Considering the consequences of the attacks that have killed over a hundred Sunnis in the past 3 months, he might need many more gestures.
Karami said in the aftermaths of IRGC attack in Zahedan and Khash as "scenes where the blood of Sunnis and Shiites mixed to support Islam against terrorism," the IRGC's Tasnim news website quoted him as saying. Meanwhile, local newspaper Asr-e Hamoon quoted Karami as saying that "Iran's enemies wish to sow discord among Iran's Shiites and Sunnis."
However, the difference between Karami and other officials who have said the same things is that he always makes a comment or two about the region's desperate need for economic progress and improvement of health and education systems.
In another development, ultraconservative daily Vatan Emrooz welcomed Karami's appointment and described his it as "a choice in favor of security." The daily wrote that one of the reasons for Karami's appointment was the escalation of “Takfiri terrorist activities” in the province and the ensuing insecurity in the region. Nonetheless, the daily observed that in his mandate for Karami, President Raisi stressed the need to improve the people's livelihood.
The daily also pointed out Karami's comment at a recent conference in the province, during which he said that "the enemies are taking advantage of the province's economic problems to sow discord between Muslim sects," a remark that highlighted both his missions, strengthening security, and improving the economy.
According to Rouydad24, the former governor's biggest weakness was his inability to control the security situation in the province. Obviously, the government can be sure that even if the new governor cannot do anything about the economy, his ability to crack down on protests is a certainty.
In articles in media affiliated with the Revolutionary Guards on Sunday, the regime boasted about its “integrated missile network” and how it has armed the axis of “resistance” in the Middle East, a term which refers to a network of pro-Iranian proxies and Tehran-backed militias across the region, particularly Hezbollah, the Palestinians and Yemen.
The articles also paid a tribute to Hassan Tehrani Moghaddam, an IRGC general who was one of Iran’s earliest missile architects. He was killed when a huge explosion rocked a missile facility 30 miles from Tehran on November 12, 2011. Moghaddam was among 17 top IRGC officers killed that day, in what many believed was an operation by Israeli intelligence.
He was important for the Islamic Republic because he was one of the main experts who shifted the focus of country’s air force to missiles and drones instead of fighter jets that Iran could not acquire due to Western sanctions and unwillingness by others to get their hands dirty. Tehrani Moghaddam is often described as the “father” of Iran’s missile program.
Facing a disparity in air power, Iran started developing missiles and drones based on Soviet models or Soviet-origin models that came from China, or even, from North Korea.
“Tehrani Moghaddam also established the Lebanese Hezbollah’s missile units during a visit to Lebanon in the 1980s. Analysts believe that Tehrani Moghaddam has based Iran’s defense strategy on missile capabilities and missile deterrence, a move that effectively removed the military option of the enemies of Iran from the table,” read one of the articles.
IRGC-affiliated Tasnim news agency claimed that thanks to Tehrani Moghaddam “the Islamic Republic has become the first missile power in the region and one of the top missile powers in the world, with a diverse range of ballistic missiles at its disposal." Tasnim provided a long list of Iranian drones and missiles, as well as the ones that the regime helped its allies develop based on its models, such as Hamas, Palestinian Islamic Jihad, Hezbollah, the Houthis in Yemen, the Hashd or the Popular Mobilization Forces in Iraq, and the Syrian regime.
According to the article, Palestinian groups began using missiles and Iran’s Fajr 5 rocket against Israel years ago. Hezbollah also began to deploy Iranian-backed missile technology against Israel, Tasnim claimed, saying that missiles were used in the Second Lebanon War in 2006, and Hezbollah was eventually equipped with the Fateh 110 missile. The article also mentioned more examples of Iranian missiles used by its proxy groups, from Yemen to Lebanon.
“What is a noteworthy point in this field is that the resistance forces in both Yemen and Lebanon today are equipped with surface-to-surface, anti-ship and long-range cruise missiles, that are able to hit all types of vessels in different ranges with proper accuracy and destructive power, and if appropriate tactics are used, they are also able to pass through the defense systems of combat vessels,” read the piece by Tasnim.
It, however, said “No official source in Iran has yet officially confirmed the sending of missiles to Yemen and the resistance front. It seems that now the resistance groups have achieved the technologies of using and sometimes manufacturing all kinds of missiles and rockets.”
The whole point of the article is that the Islamic Republic has knit together a unified network of its allies using its drones to expand their range of action and now seek to create an “integrated missile network” across the region putting it “under the umbrella of the integrated missile and drone network of Iran and its allies, and a new challenge will arise for America and its regional supporters.”
Although the demand of anti-regime protesters is not about a government reshuffling, regime insiders are debating the matter amid a fast-deteriorating economic situation. The unprecedented steep fall in the value of Iran’s currency puts pressure on political elites to appear responsive to public anger.
Proreform Ensaf News website wrote December 24 about "The increasing possibility of changes in the cabinet." It said "moves among conservative political groups, as well as debates among conservative politicians and lobbyists to put forth their preferred choices indicate that a change in the cabinet is imminent."
A few changes Raisi has already made in his cabinet have remained unnoticed probably because those who left had not done anything significant and those who joined were not much different in calibre.
IRGC-linked Housing Minister Rostam Ghasemi died less than a month ago and was replaced by ultraconservative Mehrdad Bazrpash. Vice President for parliamentary Affairs Mohammad Hosseini was silently removed from his post for an unknown reason. Populist Labor Minister Hojjat Abdolmaleki was replaced by Solat Mortazavi a politician with long experience and no eye-catching achievement at the Interior Ministry.
One of the outgoing ministers is said to be Javad Owji who had a minor heart attack at the cabinet meeting two weeks ago, apparently due to pressures caused by a chronic shortage of natural gas. Ensaf News wrote: "Ironically, those who lobbied to get the oil minister’s post during his illness were his close aides!" The candidates named so far for the post include Hossein Shiva the head of the Iranian Oil Tankers Company and Alireza Zeighami, a former senior official at the ministry.
According to Ensaf News, there are talks in the corridors of the government about possible changes at top level in the Oil Ministry and the Ministry of Education. Politicians in Tehran say that individuals close to the IRGC and the ultraconservative Paydari party are in fierce competition over winning the posts. The lucrative nature of the oil ministry post is clear to everyone. The candidate for the post of education is Yousef Nouri from the Teachers' Fund, an organization known for a major financial corruption case.
Meanwhile, as parliament’s term comes to an end in early 2024, some lawmakers are also trying to get closer to Raisi in a bid to win a post in the cabinet.
According to most Iranian news outlets including the moderate news website Rouyda24, Raisi's economic team is likely to be where most of the changes will take place. Economist Kamran Naderi told the website that changing the members of his economic team is Raisi's only way out of the problems created by the current team.
Economy Minister Ehsan Khandouzi is said to be under pressure to leave the cabinet, reportedly for giving many posts to individuals from Khorasan Province, presumably those linked to hardliner Friday prayer leader Ahmad Alamolhoda. According to recently leaked top-secret documents, even Raisi himself, who is Alamolhoda's son-in-law is not happy about the cleric's interventions in the affairs of the government.
Naderi attributed the continuing fall of the rial to the inefficiency of the government's team, including self-proclaimed economic genius Mohsen Rezaei who is the vice president for economic affairs.
Meanwhile, former IRGC officer and presidential candidate Saeed Mohammad, who recently left his post as the head of wealthy Kish Free Trade Zone and was once one of Raisi's closest allies, has started harshly criticizing Raisi's economic team. Mohammad's new stances reveals that dissatisfaction of with Raisi's economic team has reached his closest inner circle.
Multiple pundits and politicians are questioning a one-sided foreign policy in favor of China and Russia and calling for balance and a resumption of the suspended nuclear talks with the West. They have also unleashed tough criticism against foreign minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian, saying that he is not capable of steering the country’s foreign relations.
The attacks began after he attended a regional summit in Jordan, where he met the European Union foreign policy chief Josep Borrell, expressing Tehran’s readiness to resume nuclear talks. No tangible results emerged from the trip.
Expediency Council member Mohammad Sadr, has harshly criticized Iran's dependency on Russia and China in an interview with the centrist Entekhab News, charging that the two countries are not Iran's strategic allies, but they solely follow their own interests. He further criticized the foreign minister and the President Ebrahim Raisi for failing to give a proper response to China putting its signature on a statement with the Gulf Cooperation Council states that questioned Iran's ownership of three Persian Gulf islands.
In the reality of the Islamic Republic, everyone knows that these decisions are made in the office of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, not at the foreign ministry or by the president.
Earlier last week, others including academic and foreign relations expert Pirouz Mojtahedzadeh also attacked Iran's ideological foreign policy and the performance of the Foreign Ministry, while former diplomat Ahmad Azizi called on Khamenei's office to take over the responsibilities of the Foreign Ministry.
Sadr also criticized Iran's policy regarding relations with Saudi Arabia, adding that Riyadh is waiting for US Republicans to win the presidency, before revealing its real intentions toward Iran. Sadr called for a realistic foreign policy that would prioritize the country's national interests. Iran, he said, should maintain relations with all countries except Israel, and seek to revive the 2015 nuclear deal, or JCPOA.
An expert on international relations Mehdi Motaharnia told Fararu website in Tehran that if Iran continues its current foreign policy of aligning with China and Russia and considering itself an enemy of the United States and Europe, it will have no third option soon vis-à-vis the EU-US-Israeli alliance and the new alliance between Arab countries and Israel. He warned that China and Russia have also let Tehran down.
Fararu observed that the biggest political upheaval of the country in the past 43 years has paralyzed the government and asked Motaharnia if there was a third way out for Iran.
Motaharnia responded that Iran's tilt towards the Russia and China has left nothing of its initial non-alignment policy. As a result, whatever is against the West finds legitimacy. This inevitably brings about an identity crisis for the political system.
He added that Tehran not only needs to redefine its relations with the West, but it also needs to reform its internal governance. Motaharnia said that this will determine international community's approach to Iran in coming months.
Meanwhile, as some of Iran's hardliners such as the editor of Kayhan newspaper have harshly attacked Amir Abdollahian's attempts to resume talks with the West, former diplomat Fereidouin Majles has said in an interview with moderate Roiuyda24 website that the approach of some of Raisi's supporters will lead to Iran's further isolation. Majlesi said ironically that while everybody wants to determine the fate of the JCPOA in his own way, let us shut down the Foreign Ministry and let the Tehran Municipality to regulate Iran's relations with the rest of the world. Majlesi charged that the Foreign Ministry's critics have no concern about Iran's interests.