Conference In Washington Highlights Threats Posed By Tehran

At 1.13pm, he posted a photo across a table from Robert Malley hailing “another very useful meeting” with the United States Special Envoy on Iran and noting “we are definitely moving ahead.”

At 4.13pm Ulyanov sent out a second tweet, with a photo across the table from Enrique Mora, the senior European Union official chairing talks among world powers seeking to revive the JCPOA, the 2015 agreement limiting Iran’s nuclear program from which President Donald Trump withdrew the US in 2018.

Ulyanov wrote he had had “in-depth discussion” with Mora on what “a final document …may look like.” Ulyanov had previously expressed optimism that this could be done by the end of February.

A final document would contain details of which sanctions the United States would lift as incompatible with the JCPOA and exactly how the Iranian nuclear program, expanded and developed since 2019, would be returned to JCPOA limits. It would also be expected to contain a timetable for ‘sequencing’ such moves.

Western European negotiators in recent days have also said they are more hopeful. The lead United Kingdom negotiator and director for Middle East and North African affairs Stephanie Al-Qaq tweeted Thurday that her meeting with Iran’s lead negotiator Deputy Foreign Minister Ali Bagheri Kani and Mora has seen a “constructive exchange.”

In an interview with MSNBC Thursday, Wendy Sherman – who was closely involved in negotiating the 2015 agreement, the JCPOA (Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action) – said “all options” were on the table regardless of what happened in Vienna. Other administration officials have portrayed reviving the JCPOA was an alternative to military confrontation.

"We're not going to [just] accept anything Iran has to offer,” Sherman said. “We will re-enter the JCPOA in its fullness if Iran maintains compliance with it. And all of our options always remain on the table, regardless of what gets chosen here."

Politicians in Tehran have increasingly highlighted Iran’s surviving the ‘maximum pressure’ sanctions imposed by the US since 2018 – with the economy returning to growth after two years’ deep recession and oil exports slowly increasingsanctions still officially in force.

Some Iranian media have also detected an upper hand in the expansion of the nuclear program, including enrichment up to 60 percent, since 2019. Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian who has been under attack recently domestic opponents, said February 5 that talks in Vienna would be "seriously continued with full hands."

Saeed Jalili, a former nuclear negotiator and a JCPOA opponent, tweeted on February 8:“They [the US] were saying that Iran’s oil exports should reach zero, while after three years we are selling 1.2 million barrels per day… and this volume is increasing,”

Sherman’s interview came as opponents of the JCPOA in Washington stepped up attacks on the Biden administration. In a letter to President Joe Biden earlier this week, Republican senators led by Ted Cruz argued Congress should review any ‘new’ deal. Administration officials have pointed out they aim to revive an existing agreement that Republican president Donald Trump left in 2018 without approval from Congress.

Nuclear arsenal

"As a result of President Biden's weakness and appeasement, this administration is ramping up to give a nuclear arsenal to the Ayatollah in Iran," Cruz said in the Senate February 7.

US supporters of reviving the deal have argued that Iran’s nuclear program, which was limited by the JCPOA, has expanded since Trump stormed out of the agreement and imposed ‘maximum pressure,’ and that continued expansion of the nuclear program outside the JCPOA risks military confrontation with Israel or the United States.

President Ebrahim Raisi reiterated Friday that Iran was pinning no hopes on reviving the JCPOA and had confidence in its own abilities and resources. Both Raisi and predecessor President Hassan Rouhani have consistently argued that despite ‘maximum pressure’ Iran will not accept demands beyond the terms of the JCPOA.

Negotiators in Vienna have said the talks may be nearing agreement. In a tweet Thursday, Mikhail Ulyanov, Russia's lead negotiator, suggested the process was at"the final stage. German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock said Thursday in Tel Aviv she was “convinced that a full restoration of the JCPOA would make the region more secure, including Israel.”

The president was speaking on the 43rd anniversary of the 1979 revolution on February 11, as government-organized marches and rallies took place across the country. The anniversary coincided with Friday prayers and Raisi delivered a speech at the venue of the weekly gatherings in Tehran University.

The celebrations were a hodgepodge of motorcycles and cars driving in streets and people marching on foot, although crowds were smaller than in previous years apparently because of the Covid-19 pandemic, although the government had not announced any restrictions.

Raisi emphasized economic self-reliance and diplomatic “balance” condemning any tilt towards the West. Self-reliance has been a persistent tenet of the Islamic Republic since its establishment in 1979, as its founder, Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini campaigned against Iran’s alliance with the United States during the monarchy.

As relations deteriorated with Washington with the taking of US diplomats hostage in Tehran in November 1979, the motto of self-reliance became an alternative to maintaining cordial relations with the West. But its economic cost has been incalculable, with anemic growth for four decades and eventually confrontation over its nuclear program and severe sanctions.

Raisi’s remark about not pinning hopes on Vienna could be directed at the United States, as Washington warns little time remains for an agreement to revive the 2015 nuclear agreement. Iran’s economic situation in February 2022 is much worse than during any previous anniversary of its revolution. A nuclear agreement in Vienna could lift sanction imposed by former president Donald Trump and provide billions of dollars to the embattled government in Tehran.

Raisi’s remark about Vienna was not mentioned by state-controlled media immediately after his speech, but later they added the sentence to their reports. Videos showed that the president tried to sound decisive when he uttered the sentence.

No one knows what he meant when he mentioned New York alongside Vienna. Some began joking on social media that he probably meant Washington DC, but New York came to his mind as the capital of the United States.

Raisi came to office six months ago with lofty promises to improve the economy despite sanctions, but nothing has changed on the ground as high inflation and soaring food prices continue.

Iranian pundits and politicians have been warning of a social explosion if economic conditions do not improve in coming months. On Thursday, videos emerged of people shouting anti-regime slogans from their windows at night. “Death to Khamenei” chants were broadcast by loudspeakers in the bazaar in Mashhad on Thursday, as the PA system was apparently hacked, and a recording of incendiary slogans rang out for a while. Videos showed bewildered shopkeepers and shoppers listening to chants.

Raisi also emphasized “economic independence” but acknowledged that Iran has a long way ahead to achieve economic security. He emphasized the need for investments, while even in case of a nuclear agreement, large corporations would hardly take risks to invest because of a state-controlled economy, corruption and risk of sanctions returning.

Reuters reported on February 10 that in the past two months daily shipments have surpassed one million barrels a day, the highest since May 2019, when the Trump administration cancelled waivers allowing eight countries to import limited quantities of Iranian oil.

Between May 2019 and late 2020, Iran’s clandestine oil exports hovered around 200,000 bpd, or 10 percent of its sales before Donald Trump withdrew from the Iran nuclear agreement, JCPOA, and imposed sanctions.

However, around the time of US presidential elections in the fall of 2020, reports emerged that Iran had increased shipments to more than half a million barrels per day.

This coincided with the time when candidate Joe Biden announced his decision to reverse Trump’s policy of ‘maximum pressure’ against Iran and start negotiations to revive the JCPOA.

The latest news about higher exports, reported by Reuters quoting industry sources, coincide with the most critical phase of indirect nuclear talks the Biden Administration started with Iran more than 10 months ago. The talks held in Vienna involve all the signatories of the JCPOA, including China that is widely believed to be the biggest customer of Iran’s illicit exports.

The Chinese government that mostly abided by the sanctions, increasingly shows defiance to the Biden Administration. A spokesman responded to questions about its oil imports by Reuters, implicitly confirming and challenging the sanctions.

The "international community, including China, has been conducting normal cooperation with Iran under the global legal framework, which are both reasonable and legitimate. They deserve respect and safeguard," the spokesperson's office of China's Foreign Ministry said.

Tehran clings to these sort positions by China and Russia in order to demand more in Vienna, and Iranian hardliners tell domestic audiences that Tehran is in a strong position and does need to compromise.

Saeed Jalili a former nuclear negotiator and an opponent of the JCPOA tweeted on February 8, before the latest reports, “They were saying that Iran’s oil exports should reach zero, while after three years we are selling 1.2 million barrels pd…and this volume is increasing.”

This is a sign of how more oil exports strengthen the hand of hardliners who oppose any compromise with the United States and push for expansion of the nuclear program.

In another tweet, Jalili posted a video of a speech to supporters of the Iranian regime, in which he says the US policy of pressuring Iran has failed and uses a clip from the State Department spokesperson, Ned Price declaring the sanctions policy as an utter failure, to prove to the public that there is no fear and Iran should stand tall.

American proponents of a tough policy toward Iran accuse the administration of abandoning sanctions enforcement amid nuclear talks and allowing Iran to increase oil exports, which could harm their own leverage in Vienna.

According to Reuters, Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov made the remarks on Thursday as indirect talks between Tehran and Washington to salvage the deal resumed on Tuesday after a 10-day break.

Although the negotiating teams in Vienna give little away as to whether they are closer to resolving the thorny issues, Lavrov’s comment is in contradiction to that of Mikhail Ulyanov, Russia’s lead negotiator and its ambassador to the International Atomic Energy Agency, who said the talks were “five minutes” from the finish line.

“A draft of the final document has been crafted,” he said. “There are several points there that need more work, but that document is already on the table.”

Reiterating Iran’s demand that the US remove all sanctions imposed under ‘maximum pressure’ since 2018 when the Trump administration left the 2015 deal (the JCPOA, Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action), Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian said Monday that “the latest texts obtained from the Vienna talks” failed to address “parts of our demands for the lifting of sanctions.”

Rob Malley, the White House Iran envoy leading the American team taking part indirectly in Vienna, told the MSNBC Friday that negotiators had not reached agreement on central issues, such as exactly which US sanctions should be lifted.