Iran's population could shrink from 87 million to 31 million over the next 75 years, a senior population official warned Thursday, citing a projection far more pessimistic than United Nations estimates.
Marzieh Vahid Dastjerdi, secretary of the National Population Headquarters, said at an international fertility conference that Iran's fertility rate had fallen to 1.34 children per woman, well below the replacement level of about 2.1, despite years of government efforts to encourage larger families.
Dastjerdi attributed the population forecast to the World Health Organization, but the UN's World Population Prospects 2024 projects Iran's population at around 80 million by 2100 under its medium-variant scenario.
The assumptions behind the substantially lower figure cited by Dastjerdi were not immediately clear.
Fertility below replacement level does not necessarily translate into immediate population decline. The pace of any contraction also depends on a country's age structure, life expectancy and migration.
Dastjerdi warned that continued demographic decline could leave Iran surrounded by neighboring countries with populations in the hundreds of millions.
Iran's fertility rate stood at six to seven children per woman in 1986 but fell to 1.34 in the Iranian calendar year ending March 2026, she said.
Economic pressures undermine birth incentives
The decline has continued despite years of government campaigns, financial incentives and appeals by senior officials and religious leaders encouraging couples to have more children.
Inflation, high housing costs, cultural changes, delayed marriages and difficulties balancing employment with motherhood are among the main obstacles to childbearing, Dastjerdi said.
She attributed more than 75 percent of the decline to rising education levels and social development without corresponding economic progress.
A September Instagram poll conducted by Iran International found that 97 percent of more than 18,000 respondents said conditions in Iran had prompted them to postpone major life decisions, including marriage and having children. The self-selected survey was not representative of the Iranian population.
According to Dastjerdi, Iran has approximately 7.3 million unmarried men aged 20 to 54 and between 6.5 million and seven million unmarried women aged 15 to 49.
The average age of women having their first child has reached 27 years and six months nationwide and 30 years and eight months in Tehran.
Couples now wait an average of four years and six months after marriage before having their first child, contributing to fertility challenges, she said.
Annual marriages have fallen from 900,000 in 2010 to 431,000 in the Iranian year ending March 2026, while the proportion of women remaining permanently unmarried has risen sevenfold, from 1.1 percent in 1996 to 7.7 percent.
Aging population raises concerns
Beyond the long-term risk of population decline, Iran faces a more immediate challenge from an aging population.
The share of people aged over 60 is projected to rise from 13 percent to 32 percent by 2051, increasing elderly care costs and reducing the number of younger caregivers, Dastjerdi warned.
Successive leaders of the Islamic Republic have made population growth a strategic priority.
Mojtaba Khamenei, Iran's third supreme leader, called for higher birth rates in a May message, linking population growth to the government's long-term strategic objectives and the creation of a new Islamic Iranian civilization.
Khamenei described increasing the population as one of the most important concerns of his predecessor, Ali Khamenei, who was killed earlier this year.
The government has also introduced financial incentives under its Family Protection and Youthful Population Law in an effort to reverse declining birth rates.
Dastjerdi said a new maternal support program, backed by 500 trillion rials (approximately $188 million), provides eligible mothers with monthly purchasing credits of 20 million rials (about $7.50) for 24 months after childbirth.
She also called for full insurance coverage of infertility treatment and expanded screening services, noting that 79 secondary-level and 130 tertiary-level fertility treatment centers operate nationwide.
Despite these measures, official figures continue to show declining fertility and marriages, raising concerns about the country's long-term demographic and economic outlook.
Two Iranian men were found guilty on Thursday of assisting Iranian intelligence operations targeting Iran International journalists in Britain, following a six-week trial at London’s Woolwich Crown Court.
Mostafa Sepahvand, 41, and Farhad Javadi Manesh, 46, were unanimously convicted of engaging in conduct likely to assist a foreign intelligence service under Britain’s National Security Act.
A third defendant, Shapoor Qalehali Khani Noori, 57, was acquitted of all charges and discharged by the court.
Sepahvand was also unanimously convicted of conducting surveillance and reconnaissance with the intention of committing serious violence against a person in Britain.
Javadi Manesh was acquitted of a separate charge alleging that he conducted surveillance intending to facilitate serious violence by others. Noori was also acquitted of that charge.
The judge had told jurors that the court would accept majority verdicts of 10 or 11 out of 12, although they should continue striving for unanimity. The guilty verdicts were unanimous.
Sepahvand and Javadi Manesh are scheduled to be sentenced at London’s Old Bailey on December 17.
Prosecutors said the men conducted surveillance on behalf of Iranian intelligence between August 2024 and early 2025, gathering information about individuals in Britain whom Tehran regarded as opponents.
The targets included Iran International journalists Kambiz Hosseini and Mojtaba Pourmohsen, as well as British barrister Jonathan Turner.
During the trial, prosecutor Bill Emlyn Jones told jurors that the defendants visited addresses, photographed buildings and vehicles, and recorded videos to help Iran’s Revolutionary Guards identify potential targets.
The prosecution said Sepahvand was expected to carry out an attack and recruited the other two men to assist in locating and monitoring the individuals.
The court heard evidence of communications with contacts in Iran, including discussions about surveillance, payments and Sepahvand’s efforts to resolve a criminal case against him in Iran.
Sepahvand acknowledged conducting surveillance but said he acted under threats against himself and his family and deliberately tried to frustrate the operation.
Prosecutors challenged that account, arguing that his repeated demands for more accurate information about the targets showed he was actively trying to help locate them.
Javadi Manesh denied knowing that his activities were assisting Iranian intelligence. He did not give evidence during the trial.
Noori also denied knowing that his actions were connected to Iranian intelligence operations.
The convictions come as concern grows in Britain over suspected Iranian intelligence activity targeting dissidents and journalists.
British authorities have repeatedly warned of threats against Iran International staff, while Tehran has previously denied involvement in plots targeting critics overseas.
A network of seven men allegedly working on behalf of Iranian intelligence services helped coordinate a wave of attacks across Europe, using local criminals and AI-generated propaganda to target Jewish communities and spread fear, ITV News reported on Wednesday.
The British broadcaster identified two previously unnamed brothers with suspected ties to organized crime in the Netherlands as alleged members of the network, which Western security officials believe was involved in attacks across several European countries and a suspected plot against a British military base used by US forces.
ITV named Mustafa Mter Rassoul Alkyaui, who was arrested in Turkey and remains in detention, and his brother, Rassoul Mter Rassoul Alkyaui Mohsen, who remains at large.
The broadcaster said the brothers' contacts in Europe's criminal underworld were believed to have helped the network recruit local operatives to carry out attacks for money, sometimes without knowing whose instructions they were following.
The findings build on a November 10 US Justice Department indictment charging three other alleged members of the network: Mohammad Baqer Saad Dawood al-Saadi, a dual Iranian-Iraqi national; Mohsen Mohajeri, an Iranian national; and Mohammad Ali al-Hassani, an Iraqi national.
US prosecutors linked the three men to nearly 20 attacks and attempted attacks across Europe and the United States, including a September plot targeting RAF Fairford, a British air base housing American forces.
Investigators suspect rival Iranian agencies funded network
According to ITV, Western security officials believe the network operated from a control room in Baghdad, selecting targets and recruiting criminals to carry out attacks as Iran sought ways to retaliate following the outbreak of war with the United States and Israel in February.
Investigators suspect the network received funding from both the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) Quds Force and Iran's Ministry of Intelligence, with neither agency apparently aware of the other's involvement.
ITV reported that the group operated as a loose circle of associates rather than a conventional militant organization, using artificial intelligence to produce propaganda videos that made the network appear larger and more sophisticated.
The broadcaster publicly identified five alleged members, including the three men charged in the United States and the two brothers. The other two were not named.
Attacks targeted Jewish communities across Europe
The suspected campaign began in March with an explosion outside a synagogue in Liège, Belgium, followed by an arson attack on four ambulances belonging to the Jewish emergency medical service Hatzola in north London.
A previously obscure organization calling itself the Islamic Movement of Companions of the Right, also known by its Arabic initials HAYI, said it was responsible for the attacks.
ITV reported that al-Saadi was suspected of personally producing and distributing some of the group's AI-generated propaganda, including material relating to the March 23 ambulance attack.
US prosecutors said the network was involved in approximately 18 attacks in Europe during the spring, seven of them in Britain. The incidents included arson, explosions and a near-fatal stabbing of two Jewish men in London.
The Justice Department alleged that HAYI served as a front for Iran-backed Kataib Hezbollah and other US-designated terrorist organizations, helping conceal those directing the attacks.
US prosecutors detail RAF Fairford plot
The alleged network subsequently turned its attention to RAF Fairford, an air base in Gloucestershire that housed US military aircraft and personnel.
According to the Justice Department, al-Hassani directed preparations from Iran, paying contacts in Britain to conduct surveillance and obtain vehicles and materials for the September operation.
British police recovered three vans linked to the alleged plot on September 27 and arrested their occupants, according to US prosecutors.
Prosecutors also alleged that al-Saadi, who had been in US custody since May, continued coordinating with other members of the network through coded messages passed during calls with relatives in Iraq.
ITV reported that Western officials believe the decision to target RAF Fairford probably received approval from senior figures within the Revolutionary Guards, unlike other attacks that the network was thought to have selected independently.
"This eight-count indictment shows the determination of Iran to commit terrorist attacks in Europe and the US," FBI Director Kash Patel said, citing the suspected plot against RAF Fairford.
Security officials warn of further attacks
The ITV investigation suggested the network's operations were designed not only to cause physical damage but also to generate widespread fear, particularly within Jewish communities.
Western security officials told the broadcaster that networks operating under the HAYI name could carry out further attacks.
The report came as Iran's security chief Mohsen Rezaei renewed warnings Wednesday about military bases stretching "from West Asia to Europe," according to ITV.
The allegations concerning the network, including the suspected involvement of Iranian intelligence agencies and the newly identified brothers, have not been established in court. The three men indicted in the United States are presumed innocent unless proven guilty.
Iran is adding 23 commemorations to its official calendar, including days marking the US-Israeli war, the killing of former supreme leader Ali Khamenei and the selection of his son Mojtaba as his successor.
The additions to the Iranian year 1406, running from March 2027 to March 2028, were reported Wednesday. Five of the new observances relate to the war and the transfer of power.
The “Day of the Epic Defense of Iran,” designated for February 28, commemorates the killing of Ali Khamenei and senior military commanders during the opening attacks of the war in 2026.
The Day of the Martyrs of the Third Sacred Defense honors those killed in the war, while the Day of the Dena Warship Martyrs commemorates sailors killed when a US submarine sank the Iranian naval vessel off Sri Lanka in March.
The new calendar also includes a day marking Mojtaba Khamenei's selection as supreme leader following his father's death.
Other additions include Iranian Ethnic Clothing Day, a commemoration of the 18th-century Turkmen poet Magtymguly Pyragy, Iranian Naval Power Day, Nomads Day and Polo Day.
Religious and ideological additions include Nahj al-Balagha Day, named after a collection of sermons, letters and sayings attributed to Imam Ali, the first Shiite imam. The calendar will also recognize Quran Day, a day promoting zakat, the Islamic charitable tax, and Interfaith Dialogue Day.
Other observances include Crisis and Natural Disasters Management Day, Muhammad Iqbal Lahori Commemoration Day, Sacred Defense Intelligence and Operations Day, Software Movement and Free Thought Day and Boys' Day.
Four further commemorations listed in the calendar's appendix are Kordestan Day, West Azarbaijan Day, Healthy Nutrition Day and Nahavand Day.
Iran's official calendar already contains numerous Shiite religious observances, including Ashura, Arbaeen and anniversaries marking the births and deaths of Shiite imams.
Ideological commemorations include Islamic Revolution Victory Day, Islamic Republic Day, the anniversary of Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini's death and the Day of Struggle Against Global Arrogance, marking the 1979 seizure of the US Embassy in Tehran.
The calendar also recognizes Nowruz, Persian cultural figures and other national traditions, but its extensive religious and revolutionary commemorations reflect the ideological priorities of the Islamic Republic's leadership.
Tehran has dismissed US plans to restrict Iran’s overland trade routes as ineffective propaganda, but Iranian businesses report sharp increases in transportation costs and insurance premiums.
Some say these costs have multiplied several-fold, though it remains unclear how much of the increase can be attributed to the new operation.
Operation Iron Gate follows two earlier US initiatives, Economic Fury and Economic Outcast, which introduced a naval blockade and expanded secondary sanctions across five sectors: digital assets, technology, gold, aviation and shipping.
Iron Gate, by contrast, is a CENTCOM task force rather than a full-scale operation. Established on November 7 and operating with roughly 20 personnel based in Tampa, Florida, its long-term impact remains difficult to assess.
The economic damage
The International Monetary Fund projects a 5.4% economic contraction and 68.9% inflation for 2026.
CENTCOM asserts its blockade has prevented more than $25 billion in crude exports, although the figure has not been independently verified.
While CENTCOM has not specified the total volume of trade Iron Gate aims to block, its stated targets cover weapons, dual-use technology, sanctioned materials and illicit revenue moving through land and Caspian routes.
Ordinary trade is not explicitly targeted, but the scale of Iran's regional commerce illustrates the challenge of enforcing such restrictions.
Regional trade
Iraq has more land crossings with Iran than any other neighbouring country. On November 9, Washington reportedly requested that Baghdad close all but two crossings.
Iraq's Trade Ministry put bilateral trade at $12.5 billion in 2024, while Iranian customs figures showed Iraq purchased $11.9 billion in Iranian exports during the last Iranian calendar year, making it Iran's second-largest export market after China.
Smaller crossings have also expanded rapidly, with Mehran alone handling $453 million in exports over six months.
Reports by Alhurra, the US-funded Arabic-language broadcaster, have highlighted IRGC-supervised smuggling through militia-controlled routes into Iraq, potentially making these networks a particular target for Iron Gate.
Along the Turkish border, six-month bilateral trade reached $7.04 billion, according to Mehr News. Petrochemicals accounted for 48% of Iranian exports and oil products another 33%.
Bazargan remains a major bottleneck, with Iranian officials reporting that Turkey permits only 200 trucks a day, against the 500 requested by Tehran.
To the north, industry estimates published in Iranian economic media project Russia–Iran Caspian cargo volumes of approximately 10 million tonnes in 2026, nearly double the previous year's level.
Iranian exports to Pakistan and Afghanistan amount to roughly $2.4 billion each, alongside extensive informal fuel smuggling on which an estimated 2.4 million people in Pakistan's Baluchistan depend.
Internal strain
Many observers, including some Iranian officials, argue that additional restrictions are unlikely to bring about economic collapse, pointing to Iran's adaptation to nearly five decades of sanctions.
Assessments reported by Reuters have also suggested that renewed military strikes may be unlikely to change Tehran's negotiating position or destabilize its leadership.
Yet the ability of the Iranian state to withstand pressure does not mean its population can absorb the costs. Iranians contacting foreign-based Persian-language outlets, including Iran International, consistently describe the growing hardship facing ordinary households.
Iron Gate may prove more effective at raising trading costs and disrupting specific networks than at restricting Iran's overall commerce.
Oil-product flows through Iraq and Turkey, along with military-related shipments across the Caspian, could face additional scrutiny. But the task force's limited size and the geographical scale of its mission make its eventual impact uncertain.
Caspian maritime traffic, in particular, remains difficult for Washington to reach directly.
Iran may therefore be able to withstand further restrictions, even at the cost of prolonged economic hardship. Tehran could ultimately prefer what amounts to more pressure on ordinary Iranians over geopolitical concessions.
The Revolutionary Guards' unveiling of a new underground missile facility has sparked public anger over military spending, with citizens questioning government priorities amid growing poverty, energy shortages and a lack of civilian shelters.
Iranian media released images on November 10 showing Ali Abdollahi, chief of staff of the armed forces, and Majid Mousavi, commander of the Revolutionary Guards' Aerospace Force, touring what was described as a new underground "missile city."
Neither the facility's location nor the date of the officials' visit was disclosed.
"They have drilled holes into mountains for missile cities, but they have left even bigger holes in people's dinner tables," a resident of Shiraz wrote to Iran International.
Another criticized the focus on expanding missile capabilities rather than addressing economic hardship.
"They either inaugurate missile cities or compete to threaten the region, Europe and the US. The only thing that does not matter to them is the people and their problems," the person wrote.
The unveiling followed remarks by lawmaker Ghasem Ravanbakhsh on November 7 calling for longer-range missiles and discussing the potential ability to target military bases and infrastructure in European countries, including Britain.
Missile facilities and shrinking household budgets
Several citizens questioned the allocation of resources to underground military infrastructure while living standards continue to deteriorate.
"Now we know where the money meant for people's livelihoods is being spent," one person wrote.
Another compared Iran's growing missile infrastructure and the Revolutionary Guards' influence to North Korea, pointing to declining household purchasing power and economic hardship.
Year-on-year inflation reached 88.7 percent in October, the Statistical Center of Iran announced on October 28.
"Regional power and strength are not demonstrated by unveiling missile cities, but by providing people with essential goods and fuel so they do not face shortages," another wrote.
Others questioned the construction and operating costs of underground facilities, including their electricity and gas consumption.
One person estimated construction costs at $50 million per kilometer and questioned why households were being urged to conserve energy while military facilities consumed substantial resources.
The criticism coincided with fresh government warnings about possible winter gas shortages.
Iran faces a gas supply shortfall of approximately 430 million cubic meters, government spokesperson Fatemeh Mohajerani said on November 10, warning of possible interruptions and urging households to reduce consumption.
Some respondents also accused the Revolutionary Guards of controlling access to foreign currency and import permits through affiliated companies, arguing that resources needed for food and medicine were being directed toward missile development and regional allied groups.
Underground missile bases but no public shelters
Another major concern raised by the citizens was the lack of civilian shelters and emergency protection facilities in the event of war.
"I wish that instead of unveiling missile cities, you would unveil underground shelters for the people. Everything matters to the Islamic Republic except the lives of Iranians," a resident of Karaj wrote.
The criticism follows an Iran International report published on November 3 examining civilian preparedness for possible conflict.
Many said they could neither afford emergency supplies nor identify a safe place to shelter during military strikes.
Some also questioned the government's decision to publicize images of facilities presumed to be sensitive military sites while providing no recent images of Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei.
They contrasted the publicity surrounding underground missile infrastructure with the continued absence of new public images of the country's leader.
