The US military moved tankers and tiltrotor aircraft out of RAF Mildenhall in eastern England on Monday over a threat from Iran, the Wall Street Journal reported, the second British base it has thinned out since a suspected Iran-linked plot at RAF Fairford in September.
Flight-tracking data showed nine KC-135 refueling tankers and three V-22 Ospreys leaving Mildenhall in Suffolk on Monday afternoon and evening, Sky News reported. Most of the tankers went to bases in Germany and Spain and one to Prestwick in Scotland. The Ospreys moved to nearby RAF Lakenheath.
The exact nature of the threat was still under discussion among US officials, the Journal said. Washington raised the security level at Mildenhall and Lakenheath to FPCON Charlie, the second-highest on the Pentagon’s scale, which applies when intelligence indicates that some form of terrorist action is likely.
US European Command said aircraft move between locations “for a variety of reasons” and that it could not discuss force protection measures.
Britain’s Ministry of Defense said it did not comment on other nations’ activity. “We’re constantly keeping the security of our bases under review,” cabinet minister Lucy Powell told Sky News, “and as we’ve seen with other cases recently, we take firm and quick action where we need to.”
The move comes six weeks after police arrested five men in the early hours of September 27 near RAF Fairford in Gloucestershire, which US bombers used to strike Iran during the war, after a local farmer reported three white vans and a group of men, some with their faces covered. The United States pulled all 12 of its B-1B bombers from Fairford on October 4.
Two men were charged last month under the National Security Act. Prosecutors said one, a British-Iranian dual national, had arranged for the men to drive to the base on the instructions of a man known only as “Ali,” and accused him of assisting a foreign intelligence service; police said they believed that country to be Iran. Six others remain on bail. Prime Minister Andy Burnham said the plot was “almost certainly” directed by the Revolutionary Guards.
Iran’s ambassador in London has denied any involvement. The Revolutionary Guards warned Britain in July that Fairford and any other base used to attack Iran would be a legitimate target.
US President Donald Trump said Monday the war with Iran was effectively over militarily but warned US forces remained “locked and loaded,” while Iran's security chief denied reports of talks with Washington and demanded acceptance of Tehran's conditions to end the conflict.
Qatar's prime minister, Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani, met Trump at the White House in an effort to secure more time for diplomacy and advance negotiations between Washington and Tehran.
“Iran, militarily, is effectively over. We're just keeping it the status quo,” Trump told reporters at the White House after meeting with the Qatari prime minister.
While Trump described the war as militarily “effectively over,” he emphasized the continuation of the US naval blockade and Operation Iron Gate in a Truth Social post, saying Iran's neighbors, including Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain and Kuwait, favored maintaining the “status quo.”
He warned that American forces remained “locked and loaded” if developments in the Middle East changed, but said further military action appeared unlikely.
Trump also said Iran had accepted that it could never acquire a nuclear weapon, despite publicly denying such a commitment.
“They understand that. They accept that. They don't admit that they accept it,” he told reporters, describing the prohibition on Iranian nuclear weapons as non-negotiable.
Trump told Al Thani during their meeting that he wanted an agreement with Iran and was willing to give negotiations a chance, but could reverse course if Tehran failed to engage seriously, Axios reported Monday, citing a diplomat briefed on the discussions.
Despite reports of Washington's willingness to pursue diplomacy, Iran's Supreme National Security Council secretary Mohsen Rezaei accused the United States of fabricating reports of negotiations and demanded that it accept Tehran's seven conditions.
“STOP manufacturing FAKE NEWS about imaginary talks,” Rezaei wrote on X.
“The war on Iran has already wrecked the US government. But Washington flails like a desperate gambler,” he added, urging Washington to recognize what he described as a new regional order in West Asia.
The Washington Post reported in October that US officials viewed Rezaei as a key contact in Tehran who could help build support for a nuclear agreement.
Vice President JD Vance sent Rezaei a letter in late October expressing his willingness to meet personally to discuss a negotiated settlement, The Washington Post reported, citing a US official familiar with the initiative.
Axios reported that Vance was also closely involved in the indirect talks through frequent contact with Qatar's prime minister.
Following the White House meetings, Al Thani said he had discussed ways to advance US-Iran negotiations with Trump and Vance.
“Grateful for the positive discussions on reaching a deal and bringing peace to the region,” he wrote on X.
The mediation efforts have focused on a proposal setting out reciprocal steps to reduce tensions and restart negotiations over Iran's nuclear program.
Under the proposed two-day plan, Washington would first lift its naval blockade and release some frozen Iranian funds, while Tehran would invite UN nuclear inspectors to damaged sites, Axios reported. The Strait of Hormuz would reopen on the second day, followed by renewed talks over Iran's highly enriched uranium stockpile.
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said Sunday that Tehran was awaiting Washington's response to the proposal, which also calls for an end to hostilities on all fronts.
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, however, said Sunday that indirect negotiations had produced little progress and described some Iranian demands as unrealistic.
“I wouldn't say we're on the verge of a breakthrough,” Rubio said, adding that Trump preferred a diplomatic solution but that one was not always possible.
Meanwhile, Turkish intelligence chief Ibrahim Kalin said Monday that Vance and Rezaei were scheduled to meet in Qatar next week, according to Türkiye newspaper.
Speaking at a conference in Ankara, Kalin said the planned meeting in Doha could provide an opportunity to advance negotiations, warning that failure to reach an agreement could lead to another US attack on Iran.
Kalin said regional mediators were working on a seven-point proposal covering sanctions relief, frozen Iranian assets, nuclear commitments and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.
The main disagreement, Kalin said, was over which side would take the first step.
Two Iranian analysts have offered contrasting assessments of what could prompt Donald Trump to launch another attack on Iran before the new US Congress convenes in January.
Speaking on the popular Tehran-based online talk show Azad, conservative commentator Mehdi Kharratiyan argued that the prospect of surging oil prices and damage to US financial markets could restrain Trump, despite his continued authority to order military action following the Republican defeat in the midterm elections.
International relations analyst Rahman Ghahremanpour disagreed, saying Trump might be willing to accept substantial economic costs if he believed America's international standing or his presidential legacy was at stake.
Kharratiyan warned that another major conflict could further disrupt energy supplies and push Brent crude prices as high as $130 a barrel, exposing the US and global economies to the risk of recession.
He argued that Iran would retaliate against regional infrastructure in the event of a major US attack, potentially worsening the economic consequences for Washington. Following the Republicans' heavy midterm losses, he said, Trump would struggle to justify another war that could further damage his party's prospects in the 2028 elections.
Ghahremanpour, however, argued that preserving American credibility could take precedence over financial considerations.
He drew a comparison with Britain's experience during the 1956 Suez Crisis, when London was forced to abandon its military intervention under international pressure, suggesting Trump would be determined to avoid a similar humiliation for the United States.
The discussion aired on Azad, known for hosting debates among commentators with opposing views. Its YouTube channel has more than 160,000 subscribers, and the episode had attracted nearly 190,000 views.
The platform was shut down by Tehran prosecutors in August over allegations of spreading false information and operating without a licence, but was allowed to resume broadcasting in late October.
Despite their disagreement over Trump's calculations, both analysts warned that the period before the new Congress convenes could be particularly dangerous for Iran.
“As long as Mr. Trump is in the White House and Netanyahu is in the prime minister's office in Israel, even if they are in a weakened position, the possibility of unpredictable actions, even foolish ones, or actions driven by desperation, remains,” Kharratiyan said.
“If we are not alert, we could suddenly be caught off guard, as we have been in the past.”
Kharratiyan said Iranian officials appeared determined not to allow another surprise attack. If Tehran concluded that Washington had decided to strike, he argued, Iranian forces could launch a pre-emptive attack.
He said a major US-Israeli operation would depend on Washington and Israel identifying an intelligence opportunity, finding potential assistance within Iran and believing they could disable Iran's ability to retaliate in the opening minutes.
Ghahremanpour also warned that Trump's midterm defeat could push him in opposite directions, making him either more cautious or more willing to take risks.
“The election results could make Trump more cautious in his foreign policy, but they could also make him act more boldly and recklessly,” he said in recent remarks to the Iranian Students' News Agency (ISNA).
“Which of these happens will naturally depend on Trump's own assessment and that of his team.”
Ghahremanpour, who favours a negotiated settlement, said the absence of substantial concessions from either Tehran or Washington suggested that any agreement reached in the coming days would likely be fragile, temporary and limited.
He argued that an understanding between Trump and congressional Democrats could reduce the risk of renewed war. But if the president anticipated aggressive moves against him once the new Congress convened, he might instead seek a military confrontation to reinforce America's standing and secure his political legacy.
Iran has selected Abdolreza Masgarian, another IRGC Quds Force commander, as its next ambassador to Iraq, according to Iraqi and Iranian reporting, extending a pattern of military figures holding a diplomatic post central to Tehran’s regional influence.
The brigadier general’s reported appointment comes weeks after former foreign minister Mohammad Javad Zarif’s criticism of that approach resurfaced, questioning why Iran sends representatives of the Guards’ overseas operations arm to neighboring countries rather than diplomats and businesspeople.
US government-funded broadcaster Al-Hurra first reported the nomination on Monday, citing an Iraqi Foreign Ministry source who said Baghdad had received Masgarian’s name as the proposed replacement for Mohammad Kazem Al-e Sadegh.
Akram Ehghaghi, chief foreign policy correspondent for Iran’s semi-official ISNA news agency, subsequently described Masgarian as the newly selected ambassador in a profile posted on X, saying he would succeed Al-e Sadegh after his four-year tenure.
Iraqi outlet Shafaq News separately cited an informed source as saying Masgarian would take up the post at the beginning of 2027 under his full name, Abdolreza Nobakht.
Iran has not yet officially confirmed the appointment. Al-Hurra said neither country’s foreign ministry had announced the nomination.
Masgarian’s reported responsibilities already place him at the intersection of Iran’s military, political and diplomatic dealings with Iraq.
According to Al-Hurra, he oversees joint security coordination between Tehran, Baghdad and Erbil, having previously handled security coordination between Iran and Iraq’s Kurdistan Region.
The US advocacy group United Against Nuclear Iran has identified him as commander of the IRGC’s Ramadan Headquarters, with responsibilities that include coordinating with Iraqi Shiite armed factions.
Ehghaghi’s account emphasized his longstanding involvement in Iraqi affairs and his relationships across the country’s political spectrum.
She described him as a Kurd from the western Iranian city of Kermanshah with close ties to Kurdish officials, saying his detailed knowledge of Iraq was among the reasons for his selection.
Diplomatic outreach already underway
Those contacts were on display on Sunday, when, according to Ehghaghi, Masgarian visited Erbil and met Kurdistan Region President Nechirvan Barzani.
Barzani’s office confirmed a meeting with an Iranian delegation on November 8, although its published readout did not name Masgarian. It said discussions covered relations with Iran, security cooperation and security agreements involving Baghdad and the Kurdistan Region. Both sides emphasized diplomacy and peaceful approaches to resolving disputes.
The reported selection would continue Tehran’s practice of assigning commanders with experience in Iraq to its embassy in Baghdad, where relations with the central government overlap with ties to Kurdish leaders and Iran-backed armed groups.
One prominent predecessor, Iraj Masjedi, was a senior Quds Force officer and close adviser to its former commander, Qassem Soleimani.
The US Treasury sanctioned Masjedi while he was ambassador in October 2020, accusing him of overseeing support for Iraqi militias and using his diplomatic position to facilitate financial transfers for the Quds Force. Those allegations illustrated Washington’s concern that the embassy served military networks alongside its diplomatic functions.
Zarif’s criticism addressed the thinking behind such appointments.
In footage from a 2025 speech that circulated again last month, he argued that treating neighboring countries primarily as security threats shaped both Iran’s choice of ambassadors and the relationships it pursued.
“Why are our ambassadors in Afghanistan, Syria and Iraq representatives of the Quds Force?” he asked. “Because we see them as threats.”
He argued that an approach centered on opportunities would instead favor businesspeople and diplomats, allowing economic cooperation to play a larger role in Iran’s regional policy.
The remarks drew an angry response from the hardline Kayhan newspaper, which accused him of undermining Iran’s security institutions and helping Washington. Zarif, who served as foreign minister from 2013 to 2021, has defended Iran’s regional military capabilities while advocating greater reliance on diplomacy and economic ties.
The reported change in Baghdad also comes amid friction over US efforts to restrict Iran’s access to trade routes through Iraq.
Al-Hurra linked the nomination to tensions following Iraq’s October 21 closure of the al-Sheeb border crossing in Maysan province. It previously cited Iraqi government sources alleging that Al-e Sadegh was encouraging tribal leaders to pressure Baghdad to reopen it.
Ehghaghi, however, presented the succession as the end of the incumbent’s term. Neither account establishes that the border dispute prompted his replacement.
Qatar's prime minister held a 45-minute meeting with US President Donald Trump in Washington on Monday amid regional efforts to end the Iran war, following an Iraqi prime ministerial visit to Tehran and a Turkish announcement of planned high-level US-Iran talks in Doha.
Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani, who also serves as Qatar's foreign minister, met Vice President JD Vance separately before his talks with Trump, following a visit to Tehran last week.
The Qatari leader sought to persuade Trump to give diplomacy more time, Axios reported, citing sources familiar with the mediation. Vance has been personally involved in indirect negotiations with Iran over the past two weeks, speaking with Al Thani almost daily.
Qatar has been mediating a proposed agreement under which Washington would ease its naval blockade and release frozen Iranian funds, while Tehran would allow international nuclear inspections and reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
Ibrahim Kalin, head of Turkey’s National Intelligence Organization, said in a conference in Ankara on Monday that Qatar would host Vance and Iran’s Supreme National Security Council secretary Mohsen Rezaei next week, Türkiye newspaper reported.
Kalin said the planned Doha meeting could help advance negotiations between Washington and Tehran. He warned that failure to reach an agreement could lead to another US attack on Iran.
IRGC-affiliated Tasnim news agency subsequently cited an unnamed senior security official in Tehran as denying that such a meeting was planned.
“Iran’s policy and plans regarding negotiations have not changed, and until the American side takes practical action within the framework of the seven conditions, no plans for negotiations with the American side will be considered,” the official said.
The diplomatic activity followed talks in Tehran on Friday between Iraqi Prime Minister Ali Falih al-Zaidi and Iran’s chief negotiator Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, according to IRGC-affiliated Fars news agency.
Citing an informed source, Fars said Zaidi’s visit lasted several hours and focused exclusively on Iraq’s efforts to end the war between Iran and the United States.
Ghalibaf outlined Iran’s “two-day plan” and said Washington needed to respect Iran’s rights within that framework for negotiations to advance, the source said.
Iran’s proposal would halt US bombing, ease sanctions and end the US blockade of Iranian ports in exchange for reopening Hormuz, with nuclear negotiations to follow, Reuters reported.
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said on Sunday that a breakthrough was not imminent, describing Iranian conditions as “outrageous and ridiculous and really not realistic.”
The diplomatic push comes after President Donald Trump played down the prospect of escalating the war in a “60 Minutes” interview aired on Sunday.
“Well I’m not looking to. I don’t think there’s any reason to,” Trump said when asked whether he would escalate the conflict following the US midterm elections.
‘Seven-point agreement’
Speaking at “The Search for a New Regional Social Contract in the Middle East” conference in Ankara, Kalin said Turkey and other regional mediators were working on a seven-point agreement, with the main disagreement concerning which side should act first.
The proposed plan envisages lifting sanctions against Iran and releasing frozen Iranian assets. In return, Tehran would commit not to develop nuclear weapons, begin negotiations with the International Atomic Energy Agency and lift its blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, according to Türkiye newspaper.
Kalin urged Tehran to show greater flexibility and warned that the next few days could be decisive.
Iran signaled a willingness to negotiate an end to its confrontation with the United States on Monday, but insisted Washington must first lift measures imposed since the Islamabad understanding, as disputes over nuclear activities and control of the Strait of Hormuz continued.
President Masoud Pezeshkian said former Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei had instructed officials to end the country's prolonged state of uncertainty between war and peace, opening the door to negotiations.
"The supreme leader ordered us to end the no-war, no-peace situation," Pezeshkian said. "We can hold talks with dignity and bring the matter to an end with dignity."
The president also called for changes in how Iran is governed, saying the country's resources should not leave its people struggling to meet basic needs.
"I cannot accept that anyone in the country goes to bed hungry," Pezeshkian said.
Iran sets conditions for two-day proposal
The president's remarks came as the foreign ministry outlined conditions for a proposed diplomatic arrangement that it said could restore regional security within two days.
Iran would fulfill its commitments under the proposal if Washington lifted sanctions, the naval blockade and other measures imposed since the Islamabad understanding, Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei said.
The proposal was a shortened version of an earlier seven-day plan, Baghaei said, adding that Qatar and Pakistan remained in regular contact with both sides.
The demands drew a sharp contrast with Washington's position after US Secretary of State Marco Rubio described Iran's terms as unacceptable.
Baghaei rejected the criticism and accused Washington of imposing unreasonable conditions on negotiations.
"We have made it very clear that if the United States meets the Islamic Republic's demands, security will return to the region within two days," Baghaei said.
Nuclear disputes remain unresolved
Iran will not transfer its enriched uranium abroad, and inspections of nuclear facilities damaged by US attacks cannot proceed under existing conditions, Baghaei said separately in an interview with Lebanon's Al Mayadeen television.
The spokesman said International Atomic Energy Agency inspectors had visited the Bushehr nuclear power plant several days earlier and that Iran remained in contact with the UN nuclear watchdog.
However, he argued that the attacks had complicated Iran's ability to fulfill its safeguards obligations.
The remarks coincided with comments from Iranian lawmakers about the country's nuclear capabilities and future policy.
Esmail Kowsari said US strikes during the 12-day war had destroyed aboveground buildings near nuclear facilities at Fordow, Natanz and Isfahan but had not damaged centrifuges or uranium enriched to 60%.
Another lawmaker, Hamidreza Gudarzi, argued that Iran should acquire nuclear weapons to deter future threats, while acknowledging that decisions on changes to the country's nuclear doctrine rested with senior authorities.
Hormuz dispute and regional diplomacy
Beyond the nuclear issue, Iran and the United States continued to dispute the security situation in the Strait of Hormuz.
The Revolutionary Guards denied that US forces had cleared any naval mines from the strategic waterway.
"No war mines have been cleared from the Strait of Hormuz, and this claim is an outright lie," Revolutionary Guards spokesperson Hossein Mohebi said.
The disagreement came as regional governments sought to prevent further military escalation.
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said he had told US President Donald Trump during a recent telephone conversation that Ankara opposed another round of attacks on Iran and favored a diplomatic solution.
The United Arab Emirates also warned that a comprehensive settlement between Washington and Tehran remained difficult.
The consequences of the war could persist for years, requiring stronger defense capabilities and sustained diplomatic engagement, UAE presidential adviser Anwar Gargash said.
China pursued its own diplomatic contacts, with special envoy Zhai Jun meeting Iranian security official Ali Bagheri Kani during a regional tour that also includes Oman and Saudi Arabia.
Beijing emphasized that the widening Middle East conflict could not be resolved through military force.
Monday's developments left Iran and the United States expressing sharply different conditions for ending their confrontation, with nuclear disputes, sanctions and maritime security remaining central obstacles to a negotiated settlement.
