Egypt warns further escalation in Iran war could have wider consequences

Treasury said Iran has loaded no oil onto vessels since August 25, while overland trade has faced border bottlenecks and restrictions have expanded across aviation and banking.

The assessment, titled Operation Economic Outcast: Iran’s Isolation by the Numbers, also points to a roughly 25% fall in the rial since the operation began on August 24 and rising inflation as signs of broader economic pressure.

The report said the rial reached 2,687,000 to the US dollar on the unofficial market in October, while year-on-year inflation rose to about 90% in September, citing data from the Statistical Center of Iran.

President Masoud Pezeshkian has also acknowledged the economic impact of sanctions.

“Some say sanctions have no effect at all; to those people, I really don’t know what to say,” he told state television in August.

Oil and trade routes come under pressure

Oil has been a central focus of Operation Economic Outcast, which Treasury launched on August 24 as part of a broader effort to cut Iran off from sources of revenue and foreign currency.

Iran has loaded no oil onto vessels since August 25, Treasury said, adding that the country had reportedly sold its remaining oil stranded at sea.

Separate data on deliveries shows the decline in Iranian oil reaching overseas destinations. Kpler data and Treasury staff calculations show the 30-day moving average of Iranian or suspected Iranian-origin oil unloaded at known locations falling to about 400,000 barrels per day by October 19, from more than 1 million barrels per day around the launch of the operation.

Treasury attributed the disruption to the US naval blockade and targeted economic sanctions.

With maritime routes restricted, the report says Iran has sought to reroute more trade overland, encountering bottlenecks at its borders with Turkey, Pakistan, Afghanistan and Turkmenistan.

Thousands of trucks were reportedly stranded at the Turkish crossing, with delays of up to 20 days, while hundreds were waiting at the Pakistani border, according to the Treasury assessment.

Restrictions extend to aviation

The pressure campaign has also affected Iran's international aviation links, according to the Treasury, which said it had sent teams abroad to coordinate enforcement with foreign governments.

The UAE, Oman, Iraq (with certain religious-travel exemptions for Najaf), Georgia and Azerbaijan have barred all Iranian airlines and canceled all flights to Iran, the report said. Turkey has stopped all Mahan Air flights.

Foreign carriers including Qatar Airways, Emirates, Turkish Airlines and Pegasus have also extended suspensions of routes to Iran.

Treasury said Iran Air, the country's flag carrier, was struggling to cover operating costs with a limited fleet. It added that the restrictions have had wider consequences for industries that rely on air cargo.

An Iranian Chamber of Commerce official told Donya-e-Eqtesad that “the circle of containment is tightening day by day,” warning that supply disruptions could affect production and access to essential goods.

Financial pressure shifts to alternative channels

As trade and transport links have narrowed, Washington has also stepped up efforts to restrict the financial channels Iran uses to move money abroad.

Turkish regulators took control of the US-sanctioned Golden Global Investment Bank and revoked the operating license of US-designated Bank Mellat, while Lebanon revoked the operating license of an Iranian branch of Bank Saderat, according to the report.

The UAE imposed enforcement measures against Bank Melli Iran branches and launched an investigation into Banque Misr UAE following Treasury action. The UK also introduced a presumption of denial for licenses involving designated Iranian banks.

Treasury has separately targeted financial institutions it says facilitate Iran’s access to foreign currency and international banking. The report cited its designation of Iraq's private International Development Bank, which Treasury accused of supporting Iran and armed groups aligned with Tehran.

As conventional channels narrow, Treasury says Iranian networks have increasingly sought alternatives, including digital assets.

The department has targeted cryptocurrency exchanges, wallets and financial facilitators it says are used to circumvent sanctions. The report highlights five Iranian exchanges designated by the US in June and August.

According to the report, Nobitex, Wallex, Bitpin and Ramzinex were designated on June 2, while Aban Tether was designated on August 7. It also cited the designation of the Iranian cryptocurrency exchange BitBank as part of efforts to disrupt sanctions evasion.

Treasury says falling oil revenue, the weaker rial and restrictions on financial channels together show the cumulative impact of Iran’s growing economic isolation. It said the operation would continue and warned entities knowingly enabling sanctions evasion to expect further US action.

CSIS said it assesses that “Iranian threat-related activities directed at Canada and its allies are likely to continue in 2026.”

The agency declined to discuss specific investigations or operational details, citing the need to protect its sources, tradecraft and methods.

Iranian intelligence services and their proxies have targeted individuals they perceive as threats to the Iranian government, according to CSIS.

“In more than one case this involved detecting, investigating, and disrupting potentially lethal threats against individuals in Canada,” the agency said.

It added that it works with foreign partners and domestic law enforcement to counter such activity and engages communities across Canada to strengthen their resilience against potential threats.

The Royal Canadian Mounted Police (RCMP) also told Iran International that it was aware of reporting and allegations about possible foreign involvement in the incidents but declined to attribute them to Iran or another state while investigations remain underway.

“As these matters remain under investigation, the RCMP is not in a position to comment on specific intelligence, investigative findings, or potential attribution,” the force said.

The RCMP said it was aware of foreign interference activity in Canada involving several states, including Iran, and takes allegations of foreign interference, transnational repression and foreign state-linked criminal activity seriously.

The RCMP said it works with Canadian and international partners through intelligence sharing, threat assessments, coordinated investigations and enforcement actions.

Gun-for-hire investigations

The responses come amid investigations into suspected gun-for-hire networks operating in the Greater Toronto Area.

Toronto police say young people are being recruited through encrypted messaging apps to carry out attacks for payment, while investigators are still working to determine who is directing and financing the violence.

Police have identified a recurring pattern in some of the attacks involving stolen vehicles, encrypted messaging apps and gunmen recording shootings on their phones.

Police say recruits are required to record the attacks as proof in order to receive payment.

Toronto police said ballistic evidence linked two firearms seized during the investigation to numerous shootings across the Greater Toronto Area, including the attack on the US Consulate.

Iran International previously reported in June that an armed assailant fired 17 rounds at a Toronto athletic facility owned by Iranian-Canadian opposition activist Salar Gholami, hours after the killing of senior Iranian officials in Tehran.

The facility has served as a gathering place for opponents of the Islamic Republic and a hub for anti-regime demonstrations.

Surveillance footage captured an assailant whose physical profile was described in the report as consistent with young individuals allegedly recruited in other shootings.

The attack has not been publicly established as part of the same criminal network involved in other shootings under investigation in Toronto.

Conservatives call for action

Conservative Party leader and opposition leader Pierre Poilievre has warned that foreign-backed networks are exploiting criminal groups to carry out attacks in Canada.

"Iran's terrorist regime is suspected of financing gun-for-hire shootings on Canadian soil. Synagogues, a school, businesses, and the U.S. Consulate targeted. Jewish Canadians and Iranian dissidents are being terrorized," Poilievre said.

He called on the federal government to identify and deport Iranian Revolutionary Guard operatives unlawfully present in Canada.

Canada and more than two dozen other countries said earlier this month that they condemned Iran’s use of violent attacks, including lethal plotting, arson, sabotage, cyberattacks and other hostile activities, and pledged to identify, investigate and disrupt such activity.

Qatari mediators held talks in Tehran for at least 12 hours on Friday while maintaining contact with the White House, Axios reported. The diplomatic push comes amid reports that Washington and Israel are preparing for possible military action after next week's US midterm elections.

The competing approaches have emerged in the wake of Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei's call to end the impasse.

According to an official account of a meeting with Supreme National Security Council Secretary Mohsen Rezaei, reportedly held on October 27, Khamenei called for an end to the war and the current uncertainty, while insisting that Iran's conditions for an agreement be met.

Advocates of diplomacy have seized on his remarks to press for renewed negotiations with Washington, while conservatives emphasise military deterrence, economic resilience and maintaining Tehran's demands. The disagreement is less about whether to negotiate than the terms on which Iran should do so.

President Masoud Pezeshkian, who has repeatedly warned about the economic consequences of prolonged uncertainty, pledged a day after the account was published to fulfil Khamenei's instructions.

"You cannot plan in a state of indecision," Pezeshkian said on October 24, recalling that the late supreme leader Ali Khamenei had also called for an end to the impasse.

"But I still believe we should go [to negotiations] and move beyond the neither-war-nor-peace situation," he added.

Advocates of diplomacy seek a way out

Reformist and moderate politicians have argued that prolonged uncertainty is discouraging investment, delaying economic decisions and deepening public anxiety.

Mohammad Ali Abtahi, a former vice-president under Mohammad Khatami, has advocated "dignified negotiations", while former lawmaker Mansour Haghighatpour, a moderate conservative close to Ali Larijani, said Iran faced a choice between renewed war and an agreement.

"National interests dictate that we choose a path through which we can achieve our objectives with the least possible cost and damage," Haghighatpour told Donya-e Eqtesad, urging Washington to return to negotiations in Islamabad.

Javad Youneszadeh, a member of Pezeshkian's media team, went further, arguing that negotiations were compatible with the supreme leader's emphasis on resistance rather than a retreat from it.

In a commentary published on the president's website, he said both Ali Khamenei and his successor had authorised talks with Washington despite what he described as repeated American breaches of commitments.

"The Islamic Republic of Iran still wants to return to the Islamabad memorandum of understanding, even assuming that the enemy has disrupted everything," he wrote.

Former Iranian diplomat Kourosh Ahmadi also urged de-escalation, warning that refusing to show flexibility could lead to renewed fighting, a prolonged naval blockade and further economic pressure.

Conservatives emphasise deterrence and resistance

Conservatives and hardliners, meanwhile, have interpreted Khamenei's remarks as a call to strengthen Iran's position rather than soften its demands, arguing that ending the uncertainty requires military preparedness and economic resilience alongside diplomacy.

Fada-Hossein Maleki, a hardline member of parliament's National Security and Foreign Policy Committee, told the newspaper Iran that resolving the impasse required a new strategic framework involving the government, parliament and armed forces.

He said the framework should strengthen Iran's defence capabilities, address economic problems and prepare the country for both negotiations and military confrontation.

Maleki stressed that Khamenei's call should not be taken as a signal that Tehran was moving towards war or was prepared to accept peace at any price.

Conservative political activist Alireza Khojastehpour similarly told IRNA that stronger military deterrence could help translate Iran's battlefield achievements into diplomatic gains while reducing the economic costs of prolonged uncertainty.

The Mehr news agency also called for preparations to withstand sustained external pressure, citing warnings from Pezeshkian and Rezaei about the economic consequences of a prolonged blockade.

"From these statements, it can be understood that the country's decision-makers are planning economically and militarily to resist external pressure," Mehr wrote, while acknowledging the costs imposed on Iranian households.

The competing interpretations suggest that Khamenei's call to end the impasse has done little to resolve the underlying disagreement over how to achieve it. While advocates of diplomacy see negotiations as a way to ease economic pressure, conservatives emphasise deterrence and resistance, leaving unanswered the question of what Tehran is prepared to concede, if anything, to secure an agreement.

The delegation's swift return suggested that diplomatic efforts were continuing despite reports by Iranian news agencies that senior officials had rejected key provisions of the Qatari-mediated proposal.

On Friday, as the Qatari delegation, led by a senior adviser to Qatar's prime minister, held talks with Iranian diplomats headed by Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, Tehran's Friday prayer leader, Mohsen Haj Ali Akbari, poured cold water on the prospect of a breakthrough with Washington.

He said past experience showed Washington's offers of talks could coincide with more serious threats than its public military warnings suggested.

More notably, he lent weight to calls for a revision of Iran's nuclear doctrine, arguing that they were neither a fringe position nor merely an emotional reaction.

On Thursday, Araghchi said Tehran remained committed to the Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) as the basis for further negotiations.

He rejected proposals requiring Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz as a unilateral confidence-building measure before the verified lifting of naval restrictions and the release of $24 billion in frozen Iranian assets.

‘War is certain’

The disagreement over which side should act first remains a central obstacle to negotiations, even as regional mediators continue efforts to prevent another round of fighting.

A separate diplomatic initiative by US Vice President JD Vance has also yet to produce a formal Iranian response.

Iranian media have confirmed receipt of a letter from Vance to security chief Mohsen Rezaei, but officials have not commented on its contents, insisting instead that Tehran's conditions for an agreement remain unchanged.

Former parliamentary national security committee chairman Heshmatollah Falahatpisheh offered a far more pessimistic assessment of the renewed mediation efforts.

"The mediators' visits to Tehran are a sign that war is certain, not that diplomacy is being revived," he wrote on X on Friday, arguing that only a regional agreement involving the United States and China could now prevent a fourth war.

Economic costs

In an article published Thursday, the reformist newspaper Shargh also expressed grave concern about the diplomatic deadlock..

It warned that celebrating mine attacks and escalating regional tensions while Iran's economy faced severe shortages of essential inputs could prove a potentially fatal mistake.

The conservative newspaper Khorasan offered a more measured assessment of the diplomatic difficulties, while supporting Araghchi's rejection of proposals requiring Iran to de-escalate before Washington lifted restrictions on shipping.

While some commentators warn that prolonged confrontation is deepening Iran's economic problems and increasing the danger of war, others argue that making concessions under military and economic pressure would weaken Tehran's position in any eventual agreement.

Who moves first?

The discussions appear to be focused on establishing a framework for renewed negotiations rather than resolving every outstanding issue in a comprehensive peace agreement.

Vance's letter, according to US media reports, sought to restart talks with Iran's nuclear program included from the outset. Tehran, meanwhile, insists that steps to ease the naval blockade and release frozen assets must precede substantive nuclear negotiations.

The disagreement is reflected in a proposed seven-day framework. Washington wants nuclear discussions to begin on the first day, while Tehran insists they should begin on the seventh, after other measures have been implemented.

Although the proposed timetable separates the two positions by six days, the dispute is about more than timing. Each side wants the other to demonstrate its commitment before taking what it considers a significant political risk.

The stakes remain high. US officials have warned of possible renewed military operations after the November 3 midterm elections, while Tehran continues to reject proposals it regards as requiring unilateral concessions.

For now, the return of the Qatari mediators shows that diplomatic contacts remain active. Whether those contacts can prevent another round of fighting depends on finding a sequence of steps that both Washington and Tehran are prepared to accept.

The incident occurred on Thursday about 25 nautical miles (46 km) northeast of Khasab, Oman. UKMTO said the boat approached the tanker's port side and attached the explosives to its hull above the waterline.

The agency said the fire had been extinguished, all crew members were safe and there was no environmental damage. The vessel was continuing to its next port of call.

Three maritime security sources identified the tanker as the Panama-flagged Louise 1 and said the devices were limpet mines, Reuters reported.

Iran says it destroyed US unmanned vessel

In a separate development on Friday, Iran's navy said it had destroyed a US unmanned vessel in the eastern Strait of Hormuz, according to Iranian state media.

There was no immediate confirmation from the US military.

The report came amid continued maritime tensions between Washington and Tehran, with commercial shipping facing repeated attacks and disruptions since the US war with Iran began in February.

First successful limpet mine attack since war began

The attack on the Louise 1 marked the first known successful use of limpet mines against a tanker in the area since the war began, according to two maritime security sources cited by Reuters.

The sources said a similar attempt in September had failed when the devices did not detonate.

Limpet mines are explosive devices attached directly to a ship's hull. They differ from sea mines placed in the water, which can detonate when vessels pass over or near them.

"The apparent ability of a small craft to approach a transiting tanker, deploy explosive devices and withdraw presents a significant security concern, particularly in the Strait's congested shipping lanes," Greece-based maritime risk management company Marisks said on Friday.

Marisks said such explosives were inexpensive and could be deployed using small boats. It said limpet mines had been used against tankers in the region in previous years.

Iran reports three tankers struck sea mines

Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) said on Thursday that three tankers had struck sea mines, exploded and caught fire while attempting to leave the Strait of Hormuz through a southern route it described as unauthorized.

The IRGC navy said the vessels had switched off their radar and navigation systems and ignored warnings from Iranian forces. It said the tankers were left along the strait's southern coast.

The UKMTO advisory described an attack involving explosives attached directly to a tanker's hull. It remains unclear whether the Louise 1 was among the three vessels mentioned by the IRGC.

The Strait of Hormuz connects the Persian Gulf with the Gulf of Oman and is a critical route for international oil and gas shipments.

Tanker previously targeted in Black Sea

The Louise 1 was previously struck by Ukrainian naval drones in the Black Sea in July, according to Reuters.

Ukraine's SBU security service said the tanker was targeted over its alleged role in transporting Russian oil as part of Moscow's so-called shadow fleet, a network of vessels used to maintain oil exports despite Western sanctions.

The tanker's Panama-based operator, Aquarius Maritime Ventures, could not immediately be reached for comment, Reuters reported.