Iran says it is reviewing latest US proposal as mediated messages continue
Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesman said on Monday that Tehran was reviewing Washington’s latest proposal and that messages between the two countries continued through mediators.
Esmaeil Baghaei also said closing the Strait of Hormuz was a response to US and Israeli strikes on Iran, not an attempt to gain leverage.
“We took this measure in accordance with international law,” he said.
The ministry spokesman added that security would not return to the Strait of Hormuz as long as the United States continued its naval blockade, which he described as aggression.
“What the Americans say does not match what we see on the ground,” he said.
Tehran wanted its rights respected and a return to the Islamabad understanding, he said, while accusing Washington of keeping the nuclear issue on the negotiating agenda.
Baghaei said Iran was concerned about war between Yemen’s Houthis and Saudi Arabia, adding: “We do not want war and fire between two Islamic countries.”
He also said US actions had undermined the global non-proliferation regime and that debate had emerged in Iran over the benefits of remaining in the NPT.
“For us, diplomacy is as important as the battlefield and war,” he said.
File photo: The inaugural double-stack container train linking Iran and China, July 2024
Washington’s new sanctions are unlikely to stop a China–Iran freight train at the border, but may make the route Tehran has turned to under pressure from the US naval blockade costlier and less reliable.
The blockade has sharply restricted maritime trade, while years of sanctions have squeezed Iran’s access to international finance. But not every trade channel had already closed.
Trains carrying goods from China were still reaching Iran before the latest US measures. The question now is whether sanctions on Iran’s railway companies will narrow that remaining route and complicate the flow of goods, including auto parts, carried on it.
Last week, the US Treasury designated three Iranian rail companies: the state-owned Islamic Republic of Iran Railway Company, known as RAI; Raja Passenger Trains Company; and private freight operator Railway Transportation Company.
The department said Iran had turned to rail to sustain trade and transport oil as the maritime blockade took hold.
The sanctions block the US-based property of the designated companies and prohibit US persons from dealing with them, while separate sectoral determinations give Washington wider scope to impose future designations. They do not automatically block every foreign railway, freight company or shipment connected to Iran.
The more immediate effect may be caution among companies involved in the trade. Banks may reject payments. Insurers and equipment suppliers may refuse to handle business involving designated companies. Others may charge higher fees or take longer to process shipments.
None of this would close the railway, but together it could make the route less dependable.
A useful route, with clear limits
The China–Iran rail connection is no longer just a proposal. In September, a block train bound for Iran was reported traveling through Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan before entering at Sarakhs.
A train from Xi’an to Iran’s Aprin dry port in 2025 was reported to have taken about 15 days, compared with an estimated 30 to 40 days by sea. Iranian railway officials also reported that 43 freight trains arrived from China in the first nine months of 2025.
Those figures show a route in use, although they do not indicate how much of Iran’s overall trade moves by rail.
Rail can move selected goods, industrial inputs, equipment and containerized cargo faster than shipping by sea. But it cannot replace the volume carried by tankers or bulk freighters.
Treasury says Iran is using rail to help transport oil, but its announcement provides no figures for oil moved this way. There is therefore little evidence that rail is a meaningful substitute for seaborne oil exports.
The new designations could nevertheless complicate the China route. Freight must be coordinated among operators, border agencies and terminals in several countries, making the response of Chinese and Central Asian companies important to how disruptive the sanctions ultimately prove.
Auto parts show where the sanctions overlap
The automotive sanctions create a second pressure point because auto parts from China have traveled to Iran by rail.
In 2025, Iran Khodro reportedly received an all-rail shipment through Sarakhs. The head of the local special economic zone said the route reduced transit and stockpiling time from about 50 days to 15.
Sanctions on automakers and rail operators could therefore put pressure on the same supply chain from two directions.
Procurement and payment may become harder, while freight companies and intermediaries may avoid shipments linked to designated firms.
The impact on car production, however, will depend on what parts are affected, how much stock manufacturers have and whether other suppliers or routes are available.
The trains may run, but at a price
The blockade has squeezed Iran’s maritime options; the rail sanctions raise the risks attached to an overland alternative.
They may not stop the China–Iran connection, but could make it costlier and less predictable by deterring the banks, insurers and logistics firms that keep shipments moving.
How much traffic falls will depend largely on the response of Chinese and Central Asian operators.
For now, the railway remains open. But as Iran leans more heavily on the trade routes still available to it, Washington is trying to make those routes harder to use.
A vessel sails through the Strait of Hormuz, seen from the Suro coast in Bandar Abbas, southern Iran, October 6, 2026. (ISNA)
Efforts to end the war with Iran and restore normal shipping through the Strait of Hormuz remained deadlocked Sunday, as military pressure continued at sea and the Iran-backed Houthis carried out increasingly deadly attacks inside Saudi Arabia.
Iran said the United States had accepted some of seven conditions it presented for reopening the strait but that Washington's response was insufficient, leaving the two sides without agreement on renewed negotiations or unrestricted passage through the waterway.
“The US has agreed to some of Iran’s seven conditions, but we consider its response INADEQUATE,” Iran’s Supreme National Security Council Secretary Mohsen Rezaei said in a post on X. “Iranian diplomacy has changed and there will be no return to the status quo ante.”
Iran presented the seven-condition proposal during the UN General Assembly, offering to restore normal maritime passage through the Strait of Hormuz within seven days if its conditions were met. The United States later responded through Qatari intermediaries.
The latest exchange comes days after Axios reported that the Pentagon had instructed US Central Command to complete preparations for the possible resumption of major combat operations against Iran. President Donald Trump subsequently said the United States would not attack Iran before the November 3 midterm elections and described talks with Tehran as “productive.”
Rezaei, however, said Washington still needed to clarify parts of its response and that Iran would not reopen the strait to the United States or resume negotiations until its conditions were met.
Pressure builds around Hormuz
The diplomatic impasse is playing out most directly at sea, where Washington is enforcing its blockade of Iran as Tehran maintains restrictions on passage through the Strait of Hormuz.
US Central Command said a US fighter jet struck the stern of the Panama-flagged M/V Ocean Molica, also known as the Arika Sun, after the vessel left an Iranian port and ignored repeated warnings as it attempted to breach the blockade.
The strike fully disabled the vessel's propulsion without harming its crew, according to CENTCOM, which warned other commercial vessels approaching Hormuz to comply with blockade instructions.
Iran, for its part, has continued restricting passage through the strait. The IRGC Navy said Sunday that a tanker carrying 750,000 barrels of crude struck a naval mine and caught fire after attempting to use what it described as an unauthorized route despite warnings.
The IRGC-affiliated Tasnim news agency described it as the third tanker to strike a mine in the strait that day.
The incidents come amid a sharp deterioration in shipping security this month. UK Maritime Trade Operations recorded 11 attacks on commercial vessels in the week ending October 9, including 10 in the Strait of Hormuz and one in the Persian Gulf.
Seven of the vessels attacked in the strait sustained only minor damage and continued their transit, UKMTO said. Vessel traffic through Hormuz remained about 75% below pre-conflict levels.
Separate shipping data this week showed tanker attacks had reached their highest weekly level since the Iran war began, with the number of vessels transiting Hormuz falling to its lowest in more than two months.
The disruption has extended well beyond the waterway, pushing up global fuel costs and prompting Washington to seek additional supplies as the Trump administration faces pressure over diesel prices ahead of the November 3 midterm elections.
Trump said Friday that Russia had agreed to immediately supply more than 300,000 metric tons of diesel to US and global markets, with further supplies to follow. His administration also temporarily eased sanctions on Russian fuel to facilitate the arrangement.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent defended the deal Sunday and explicitly linked it to the confrontation with Iran, saying Tehran was the “biggest loser” because its attempts to create choke points in the Strait of Hormuz and diesel supplies had failed.
“We're going to do it with all the legal authorities we have,” Bessent told Fox News, saying the agreement would help bring diesel prices down.
Fighting intensifies between Saudi Arabia and Houthis
The Iran war's Yemen front has intensified as Saudi Arabia expands military operations against the Iran-backed Houthis and the group carries out increasingly deadly attacks inside the kingdom.
A Houthi attack on King Khalid International Airport in Riyadh Saturday killed 13 people and wounded more than 300, the deadliest attack in Saudi Arabia in more than a decade. The airport was attacked again Sunday, when a projectile struck Terminal 4, killing a Pakistani resident and injuring 11 people, according to Saudi aviation authorities. Saudi air defenses also intercepted a cruise missile near the airport.
Saturday's strike followed two earlier attacks on the Riyadh airport during the week that killed four people, one of which also heavily damaged a Saudi commercial aircraft parked on the tarmac.
The latest escalation followed a Houthi offensive last month that seized strategic territory along Yemen’s Red Sea coast near the Bab al-Mandab strait, a critical shipping route and an alternative to the Strait of Hormuz.
Saudi-backed forces have since intensified their campaign against the Houthis. The Saudi-led coalition said it had struck 136 Houthi targets, including sites linked to the group’s ballistic missile capabilities. Yemen’s internationally recognized government forces separately said they had carried out 1,732 strikes and “neutralized” more than 900 Houthi fighters during Operation Dawn of Yemen.
The escalation has also raised the prospect of deeper US involvement. Trump said Saturday that Washington was considering joining Saudi strikes against the Houthis. The United States is already providing Saudi Arabia with intelligence support but has stopped short of the direct military assistance sought by Riyadh and its Yemeni allies.
The attacks have spread beyond the capital. The Houthis said Sunday they also targeted King Fahd International Airport in Dammam and two Saudi Aramco facilities. There was no immediate Saudi confirmation of those attacks.
The intensified attacks have come as Saudi Arabia steps up its military involvement in Yemen. The Saudi-led coalition has carried out large-scale strikes against Houthi positions, while Saudi-backed Yemeni government forces have launched a ground offensive against the group.
The coalition said earlier that 136 Houthi targets had been struck, including sites linked to the group's ballistic missile capabilities. Yemen's internationally recognized government forces separately said they had carried out 1,732 strikes and “neutralized” more than 900 Houthi fighters during Operation Dawn of Yemen.
The growing threat to Saudi aviation has begun prompting wider precautions. The US Federal Aviation Administration warned American airlines Sunday to exercise caution when flying to or over Saudi Arabia because of military activity and navigation-system interference, while the Houthis renewed warnings against using Saudi airports.
Diplomatic channels between Tehran and Riyadh have nevertheless remained open. Saudi Foreign Minister Faisal bin Farhan and Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi spoke Sunday about the fighting and efforts to reduce the confrontation, with Araghchi saying Iran was prepared to help facilitate dialogue between Saudi Arabia and Yemen.
That contact has not altered the broader Iran-US impasse. Washington and Tehran remain divided over the conditions for reopening the Strait of Hormuz, leaving restrictions on shipping and fighting on the Saudi-Yemen front unresolved despite continuing diplomatic contacts.
Men wield machetes during the IRGC-backed "Jan-Fadayan" rally, held along the route from Azadi Square to Golestan-e Shohada cemetery in Isfahan, Iran, October 1, 2026.
Footage and images showing men wielding machetes and swords at an IRGC-backed rally in the central Iranian city of Isfahan have renewed scrutiny of the Islamic Republic's history of using unofficial armed groups to suppress anti-government protests.
The October 1 event, dubbed "Jan-Fadayan," or "Those Willing to Sacrifice Their Lives," brought together members of the Basij paramilitary force, religious organizations and other participants, according to Iranian state media.
Organizers described the gathering as a demonstration of public readiness and mobilization capabilities.
Iranian lawyer Ali Mojtahedzadeh described the public display of bladed weapons as a "show of force with weapons" and called on local security authorities to explain why it had been permitted.
A review of statements by senior Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) commanders and former security officials shows that the use of unofficial groups, including individuals described as criminals and street thugs, to confront protesters dates back decades.
From the 1999 student protests to the 2009 crackdown
One of the earliest documented accounts dates to July 1999, when security forces and allied groups attacked Tehran University student dormitories, triggering widespread demonstrations.
Iranian security and plainclothes forces confronting protestors during the 2009 Iranian election protests following the disputed presidential election.
Ali Hashemi, a former deputy security minister at Iran's Intelligence Ministry, said in an audio recording published by Iran International that approximately 250 individuals described as "thugs and hooligans" were organized during the student protests.
Hashemi said the experience later served as a model for deploying similar groups during the mass demonstrations that followed Iran's disputed 2009 presidential election.
He also described the use of individuals with criminal records to beat detainees, including at the notorious Kahrizak detention center, referring to authorization from judicial authorities.
Hashemi said similar individuals were subsequently deployed during protests in 2017, 2018 and November 2019.
One of the most explicit accounts came from Hossein Hamedani, a senior IRGC commander responsible for security operations in Tehran during the 2009 unrest.
Iran's then Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei (L) receives a gesture of respect from Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) Brigadier General Hossein Hamedani (R) during a meeting in Tehran, Iran, in this handout photo released by the official website of the Leader on October 10, 2015.
Hamedani said the Revolutionary Guards identified approximately 5,000 people who had participated in disturbances but were not affiliated with political parties or movements. He described them as "criminals and thugs."
According to Hamedani, these individuals were initially prevented from leaving their homes on days when protests were planned, but some were later recruited and organized into three battalions.
"I then made them members of the battalions," he said.
Explaining the strategy, Hamedani said that training fighters required recruiting individuals accustomed to handling "blades and machetes."
Hamedani also described preparations to confront protesters during Ashura, a major Shiite religious observance, in December 2009.
He said cinemas, schools and religious halls were made available to pro-government forces, while approximately 30 religious groups were mobilized in Tehran.
"On Ashura, these same three battalions put an end to the unrest," Hamedani said, adding that approximately 45,000 Basij members had also been deployed.
Following Hamedani's death in Syria in 2015, Mohammad Ali Jafari, then commander-in-chief of the IRGC, credited him with helping suppress the 2009 protests, saying his leadership had been crucial to ending what Iranian authorities described as "sedition."
Hamedani had also played a central role in organizing local militias supporting Syrian President Bashar al-Assad during the country's civil war.
Jafari later said Hamedani had organized approximately 100,000 local fighters in Syria.
Allegations of machete-wielding clerics in 2022 protests
Similar allegations emerged following the nationwide protests triggered by the death of Mahsa Jina Amini in morality police custody in September 2022.
In 2024, former lawmaker Mohammad Ashrafi Esfahani accused a group of clerics associated with influential religious figure Alireza Panahian of attacking protesters with knives and machetes while dressed as civilians.
He alleged that the men returned from the streets wearing bloodstained clothes before changing into clerical robes.
Ashrafi Esfahani also said members of the group operated in plainclothes and changed into clerical attire, including turbans, when police officers appeared to avoid being confronted.
The allegations emerged amid a legal and financial dispute between Ashrafi Esfahani and Panahian over a religious complex in Tehran and have not been independently verified.
Renewed scrutiny of unofficial armed groups
Nearly three decades after the 1999 student protests, the images from Isfahan have again raised questions about the role of unofficial groups operating alongside Iran's formal security forces.
Although the names, structures and political circumstances of the groups involved in past crackdowns have varied, accounts by former security officials and IRGC commanders describe the repeated recruitment and deployment of individuals capable of using violence against demonstrators.
The available evidence does not establish that the groups involved in different periods belonged to a single organization or were directly connected.
Nor has any organizational link been established between those previously deployed against protesters and the men seen carrying machetes and swords at the Isfahan rally.
The identities and affiliations of the armed men have not been independently verified.
Their appearance at an IRGC-backed event has nevertheless renewed attention to the Islamic Republic's documented history of mobilizing forces outside conventional security structures during periods of political unrest.
Smoke and flames rise from King Khalid Airport, after Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthis said they attacked the airport, in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, October 8, 2026, in this screengrab obtained from a social media video.
An attack by Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthis on Riyadh’s King Khalid International Airport drew condemnation from European leaders, the United Nations and regional governments on Sunday.
The attack on Riyadh's King Khalid International Airport prompted warnings to travelers, expressions of solidarity with Saudi Arabia and calls for an end to attacks on civilian infrastructure.
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said Iran-backed Houthi forces are destabilizing regional transport and energy infrastructure.
“These attacks by Iran’s proxies are pushing the region into a spiral of violence,” von der Leyen said.
She described the airport strike as a dangerous escalation and called for an immediate end to attacks on civilians.
EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas also condemned the strike, calling it an “appalling act of terror.”
“There can be no justification for indiscriminate attacks on civilians and civilian infrastructure,” Kallas said.
UN Secretary-General António Guterres called for an immediate halt to attacks on civilians and civilian infrastructure.
“Attacks on civilians and civilian infrastructure are a violation of international law,” Guterres said.
German Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul described the strike as “a terrorist act against Saudi Arabia and civil aviation,” while British Foreign Secretary Ed Miliband urged British nationals to avoid Riyadh airport and follow Saudi authorities' instructions.
Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni censured the attack and expressed solidarity with Saudi Arabia and the victims' families.
“Attacks against civilians and civilian infrastructure are unacceptable and must stop,” Meloni wrote on X.
Meloni said Italy would continue working with regional partners to promote stability and freedom of navigation.
France also condemned the attack, describing it as “heinous” and expressing its “total solidarity” with Saudi Arabia, the French Foreign Ministry said on Sunday.
France would continue supporting Saudi Arabia in defending its territory and infrastructure, including through its military assistance, the ministry said. It also called on the Houthis to immediately stop attacks and provocations destabilizing the region.
Russia also condemned the attack on Riyadh's international airport, Interfax news agency reported on Sunday.
Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney condemned the attack and offered condolences to the families of those killed.
“There can be no justification for attacks on civilian infrastructure,” Carney said.
The Arab League and Syria also condemned the strike. Syria's Foreign Ministry said a Syrian citizen had been killed and called for international action to prevent further attacks on civilian facilities.
Pakistan reaffirmed its commitment to Saudi Arabia's security under the two countries' joint defense agreement.
“Pakistan stands in unwavering solidarity with the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, its leadership and brotherly people,” Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif said.
The Houthis subsequently renewed their warning to airlines, airport workers and travelers against using Saudi airports, saying Saudi Arabia bore responsibility for failed interceptions.
Iranian officials warn of further military action
Separately, Iranian officials warned against further attacks on Iran and reiterated threats over the Strait of Hormuz.
An adviser to the commander-in-chief of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps said that any new attack involving missiles or aircraft would trigger a stronger Iranian response.
“Any provocation or attack with missiles or aircraft will be met with a heavier and crushing response,” Mohammad Reza Naghdi said on Sunday.
Iranian Army Deputy Coordinator Habibollah Sayyari said the military had previously struck vessels and remained prepared to do so again.
“We defended firmly and will continue to do so,” Sayyari said. “Wherever necessary, we will act to strike the enemy.”
Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi said that Iran's response to any new military action would differ from its previous responses.
“Our response in the 40-day war was different from the 12-day war, and we hope our adversaries will show some rationality,” Gharibabadi said.
Gharibabadi also described the Strait of Hormuz as an Iranian waterway and said the country would use it as an instrument against its adversaries.
Lawmaker Hassan Ghashghavi said support for reviewing Iran's nuclear doctrine was growing among officials, experts and the public.
Ghashghavi also argued that Iran's control over the Strait of Hormuz was strengthening and that the waterway could not reopen until the Islamic Republic's conditions were met.
Separately, the newspaper Khorasan, which is close to Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, wrote that Washington and Israel had already decided to launch another war and that recent diplomatic exchanges were unlikely to alter that decision.
Nuclear dispute and maritime pressure continue
Atomic Energy Organization of Iran chief Mohammad Eslami criticized international institutions and the International Atomic Energy Agency for their response to attacks on Iranian nuclear and non-nuclear facilities.
“The silence and selective approach of international institutions and the IAEA toward direct attacks on the Islamic Republic’s nuclear and non-nuclear facilities represent an obvious and disastrous contradiction in the international system,” Eslami said.
Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi separately maintained that US-Israeli strikes on Iranian oil and energy infrastructure had created environmental hazards, including the possible contamination of air, soil and water.
Maritime developments added another dimension to the day's security concerns.
The United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations agency reported an encounter involving a tanker and military forces in the Gulf of Oman, hours after the US military announced that it had struck a vessel attempting to breach its naval blockade of Iran.
The agency advised vessels to remain alert as authorities examined the circumstances.
The international condemnation of the Houthi attack on Riyadh airport came alongside renewed threats from the Houthis and Iranian officials, raising concerns about further attacks on civilian infrastructure and commercial shipping across the region.
Panelists discuss the impact of US sanctions and the naval blockade on Iran's economy, financial networks and political leadership during an Iran International Insight discussion hosted by Fardad Farahzad in Washington, DC.
The US blockade and tighter sanctions enforcement are cutting into Iran’s oil income and targeting financial networks that sustain the Islamic Republic, but may still fall short of forcing Tehran into concessions, experts said at an Iran International town hall in Washington.
The discussion, hosted by Fardad Farahzad, brought together Kerri Bitsoff, a former senior official at the US Treasury Department’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC); Patrick Clawson, the Morningstar senior fellow at the Washington Institute; and Mohammad Machine-Chian, a senior economist and analyst at Iran International.
“The thing about sanctions, if they’re on the books but not enforced, they only hurt the people,” Bitsoff said, arguing that the current US campaign differed from previous rounds by focusing more heavily on enforcement and the financial intermediaries sustaining Iran’s economy.
Blockade bites
Iran faces declining oil revenues alongside damage to its energy infrastructure following the war, raising the prospect of severe economic difficulties during the coming winter, Clawson said.
President Masoud Pezeshkian had acknowledged that Iran could not export oil during the initial blockade, according to Clawson, who said the country subsequently sought alternative routes for limited shipments.
Iran had also relied on oil previously stored aboard vessels and in China, but those reserves were approaching exhaustion, he said.
Damage to natural gas infrastructure could compound the difficulties, potentially forcing greater reliance on mazut, a heavily polluting fuel used for electricity generation.
Patrick Clawson, a senior fellow at the Washington Institute, discusses the impact of US sanctions and the naval blockade on Iran's economy during Iran International's Insight panel in Washington, DC.
Iran depends on natural gas for approximately 69 percent of its energy requirements, making disruptions particularly consequential for households and industry, Clawson said.
Machine-Chian estimated that between $21 and $23 billion in export proceeds had not returned to Iran and that the blockade could cost the country another $35 billion in oil revenue.
The current campaign differs from previous sanctions because Washington is concentrating on enforcement and the intermediaries sustaining Iran's economy rather than simply announcing additional restrictions, Bitsoff said.
She pointed to restrictions imposed by the United Arab Emirates, measures against Iranian airlines and Turkish action against banks connected to Iranian transactions.
Such measures could influence officials and business figures whose continued support for the Islamic Republic depends on financial privileges and access to international markets.
Kerri Bitsoff, a former senior US Treasury official and sanctions expert, discusses the impact of US economic pressure on Iran during Iran International Insight panel.
Earlier sanctions had often pushed legitimate commerce underground while allowing networks connected to the Revolutionary Guards to profit, Bitsoff said.
Machine-Chian described the emergence of wealthy intermediaries, sometimes called sanctions merchants, who benefited from moving Iranian oil and money through opaque arrangements.
Those networks subsequently became obstacles to negotiations and economic normalization because their commercial interests depended on maintaining the existing system, he said.
Machine-Chian distinguished between sanctions that impose prolonged hardship without producing results and measures designed to achieve specific objectives within a foreseeable period.
The loss of the UAE, Machine-Chian added, as a major commercial and financial intermediary has further complicated Iran's position.
Dubai previously provided an important channel for Iranian transactions, but restrictions have forced businesses to seek alternatives through Turkey, Pakistan and Afghanistan, Machine-Chian said.
Those routes, he said, have limited capacity and cannot quickly replace the financial infrastructure previously available through the Emirates.
China and regional allies face financial constraints
China remains Iran's principal oil customer, but its commercial relationship offers fewer advantages to the Islamic Republic than commonly assumed, Bitsoff said.
Independent Chinese refineries purchase Iranian crude at substantial discounts, while payments in yuan often remain in China and are largely available for purchasing Chinese goods.
Hezbollah has struggled to maintain basic financial obligations and social support programs since the blockade began, Bitsoff said.
Machine-Chian argued that Iran's relationships with allied armed groups had become increasingly transactional, making continued financial assistance essential to sustaining their loyalty.
Political survival and prospects for negotiations
Despite the mounting pressure, the panelists differed over whether the Islamic Republic would ultimately accept Washington's demands.
Economic hardship alone was unlikely to persuade Iran's leadership to abandon its objectives, Bitsoff said.
Instead sustained pressure could influence members of the security apparatus whose loyalty depends on salaries, privileges and expectations of continued stability.
Clawson considered negotiated concessions possible, pointing to previous occasions when Iran reversed positions it had presented as nonnegotiable.
He suggested Iran could accept a three-year suspension of uranium enrichment, particularly because its facilities had been damaged and were not operational.
Machine-Chian was more skeptical, arguing that abandoning regional ambitions and nuclear objectives would challenge central elements of the Islamic Republic's political identity.
Audience members attend an Iran International Insight panel discussion in Washington, DC.
The blockade's sustainability also remains a concern because maintaining naval operations places substantial demands on American ships, crews and maintenance resources, Bitsoff said, although she expected the operation to continue.
The discussion highlighted a central uncertainty: whether sustained economic pressure will produce concessions, weaken the leadership's support structures or prolong Iran's economic difficulties without fundamentally changing its political direction.
