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US highlights $15 million reward for information disrupting IRGC finances

Sep 30, 2026, 00:00 GMT+1

US State Department spokesman Tommy Pigott on Tuesday highlighted a reward of up to $15 million for information that helps disrupt the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps’ financial mechanisms, as Washington steps up economic pressure on Tehran.

The reward, previously offered by the United States, seeks information on the IRGC’s revenue sources, financial facilitators, front companies and illicit financial schemes.

Pigott also said the United States sanctioned eight entities and five individuals over their alleged involvement in procuring and proliferating weapons or weapons components for Iran.

“We will continue working with partners to disrupt Iran’s proliferation networks and deny the Iranian regime access to the goods, technology, financing and services that contribute to these activities,” Pigott said.

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German-based aid worker gets 10-year prison sentence in Iran

Sep 29, 2026, 23:26 GMT+1
•
Negar Mojtahedi
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Serkan Eren, founder of the Stuttgart-based humanitarian organization STELP.

A German-based humanitarian worker has been sentenced to 10 years in prison in Iran after entering the country to help vulnerable Iranians, in a case rights experts say is the latest example of Tehran using foreign detainees as political leverage.

A German-based humanitarian worker has been sentenced to 10 years in prison in Iran after entering the country to help vulnerable Iranians, Stuttgart-based aid organization STELP said.

Serkan Eren, the 42-year-old founder of STELP, was convicted over alleged contacts with a country Iran considers hostile, according to the organization. STELP has not identified the country or disclosed further details, citing concerns for Eren and others involved.

Eren, a Turkish citizen and longtime resident of Germany, has been in Iranian custody for more than a year.

He entered Iran in late June 2025 as the 12-day war was drawing to a close. Five days later, after a ceasefire had taken effect, he headed toward the Iraqi border to leave the country. He never made it out.

STELP called the verdict unjustified and said the sentence did not reflect the circumstances of his case.

“The ten-year prison sentence given to Serkan Eren is not about what he has done. It is about what the Islamic Republic wants,” Shahin Milani, executive director of the Iran Human Rights Documentation Center, told Iran International.

Milani said Eren's charitable work offered little protection from what he described as Tehran's established practice of using foreign detainees as political leverage.

“Even working for a charitable organization does not protect foreign nationals,” he said.

Contemporaneous German reporting provides a detailed account of why Eren went to Iran and the precautions he took before entering.

German-Iranians had approached STELP seeking help for relatives inside the country, according to the Stuttgarter Zeitung. Eren said he was in contact with seven elderly Iranians, some of them ill, whom he hoped to help reach Turkey. He also intended to bring food into Tehran.

The risks were apparent before he crossed the border.

Eren deliberately left behind a satellite phone, bulletproof vest and helmet, fearing such equipment could cause Iranian authorities to mistake him for an agent or saboteur. Instead, he crossed from Turkey into Iran on foot with little more than a backpack.

Once inside, those concerns intensified. Eren later described armed checkpoints on his route to Tehran where he was forced to strip naked during searches.

More than a year later, an Islamic Republic court convicted him over alleged contacts with a hostile country.

Human rights lawyer Gissou Nia said humanitarian status has not historically insulated either foreign aid workers or Iranian charities from pressure by the authorities.

“Unfortunately, being a humanitarian aid worker is not a shield when it comes to the Islamic Republic detaining and arbitrarily imprisoning individuals,” Nia told Iran International.

She cited the case of Belgian humanitarian worker Olivier Vandecasteele, who was detained in Iran in 2022 and later sentenced to a lengthy prison term before being released in 2023 in a prisoner exchange involving Assadollah Assadi, an Iranian diplomat imprisoned in Belgium over a foiled bomb plot.

“This is a pattern that we've seen before,” Nia said.

Nia also pointed to the treatment of humanitarian organizations operating inside Iran. The Imam Ali Popular Students Relief Society, a prominent independent charity that worked with impoverished families and vulnerable children, was dissolved following years of pressure from Iranian authorities.

The Center for Human Rights in Iran reported in 2022 that an appeals court upheld an order dissolving the organization after authorities arrested several of its members and accused its founder of offenses including insulting Iran's leadership and acting against national security.

The case, Nia said, illustrates how work designed to remain outside politics can itself become politically charged in Iran.

“Even the sort of non-politicized work of humanitarian aid organizations has been politicized in some ways,” she said.

Eren's Turkish citizenship adds another layer to efforts to secure his release.

Despite living in Germany and running a Stuttgart-based organization, Eren does not hold German citizenship. Germany's Foreign Office has said it is aware of his case but that responsibility rests with Turkish authorities because he is a Turkish national. STELP says it has been working closely with Ankara since his detention.

Nia said his ties to Germany nevertheless give Berlin reason to remain engaged.

“I anticipate that Germany will raise the case, especially because he was working for a German-based organization,” she said. “And the Turkish government will probably be involved as well, because he is a Turkish citizen.”

The sentence has already drawn calls for Eren's release in Germany. Baden-Württemberg Minister-President Cem Özdemir said he would continue pushing for Eren to be freed immediately.

Eren has spent years working in humanitarian crises. He began aid work during Europe's 2015 refugee crisis and received Germany's Federal Order of Merit in 2023 for his humanitarian service.

Before entering Iran, he openly questioned whether authorities would allow him into the country at all.

“It’s arbitrary,” Eren told the Stuttgarter Zeitung at the time.

He nevertheless hoped his status as a humanitarian worker would help protect him.

It did not.

US blockade divides Iranians online over pressure on rulers, cost to public

Sep 29, 2026, 22:15 GMT+1
•
Hooman Abedi
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A woman walks past a person using an ATM outside a Bank Saderat branch in Iran.

Iran’s deepening isolation is drawing divided reactions from Persian-language social media users, with some welcoming US pressure to weaken the country’s rulers and others warning that ordinary people will bear the cost without producing political change.

The posts reviewed by Iran International reflect individual online reactions and are not representative of public opinion in Iran. But they show how the growing economic pressure is being interpreted by people arguing both for and against the blockade.

That pressure has intensified as the US naval blockade sharply curtailed Iran’s oil exports, a major source of foreign currency. Iranian crude loadings fell from about 2 million barrels per day in March to roughly 220,000-255,000 in August, according to shipping data cited by Reuters.

“Great. An air and sea blockade, then a land blockade, will lead to the government’s fall,” one Persian-language social media user wrote.

“The economic blockade is choking it,” another wrote.

  • Tehran ‘ashamed’ as Iranians struggle to make ends meet

    Tehran ‘ashamed’ as Iranians struggle to make ends meet

Support for continued pressure has also appeared on Reddit. “I said months ago that the blockade is a good strategy,” one commenter wrote, expressing hope that US President Donald Trump would maintain it.

Another user in the discussion described maintaining the pressure as “Great for Iran.”

Taken together, the posts illustrate a view among supporters of the blockade that restricting trade and government revenue could weaken the Islamic Republic’s ability to withstand domestic pressure.

One user argued that the blockade could erode the authorities’ ability to administer and control the country by reducing oil revenue, weakening internal cohesion and increasing economic pressure.

“The blockade is not the objective, but the instrument,” he wrote, arguing that the aim was to increase pressure until the authorities struggled to maintain stability and manage the economy.

Others say ordinary Iranians will pay

Other users rejected the idea that economic isolation would bring political change and warned that the greatest burden would instead fall on the public.

“I don’t know of an example in history where sanctions and an economic blockade caused a revolution. Ordinary people just suffer,” one user wrote on X.

Another said prolonged isolation could strengthen corruption and preferential access, leaving politically connected people better placed to profit from shortages while the wider population becomes poorer.

“This situation could continue for years,” the user wrote, adding that the authorities could blame worsening economic conditions on the blockade.

For others, the consequences are already visible far beyond politics and trade.

“You can’t leave the country by air or sea. All the language exams have sanctioned us. Eighty percent of online games are restricted for Iranians. You can’t even create a Gmail account,” another person wrote on Instagram.

  • Iranian test-takers head abroad as exam access shrinks

    Iranian test-takers head abroad as exam access shrinks

“It’s as though the project to erase Iranians from the face of the earth has officially begun,” the user added.

Dark humor over growing isolation

The restrictions have also prompted sarcasm directed at official assertions of resilience.

After Turkish Airlines suspended its Iran flights until at least March 2027, one commenter ironically invoked a familiar phrase in Iranian political rhetoric: “America can’t do a damn thing.”

  • Turkish Airlines says all Iran flights suspended until March 2027

    Turkish Airlines says all Iran flights suspended until March 2027

“They just keep announcing victories one after another,” another wrote with laughing emojis.

A longer sarcastic comment mocked rhetoric about missiles, drones and military strength before concluding: “If the blockade continues, soon we’ll have to eat grass.”

Economic hardship also featured in discussions on Reddit. One commenter said half their monthly salary went on groceries and food and the other half on rent, leaving them dependent on savings. Another described paying 15 million rials for a kilogram of cold cuts and pickles.

The rial has fallen sharply during the economic squeeze, trading at more than 2.3 million to the dollar in September.

Iran’s official minimum monthly wage is about 166 million rials, worth roughly $71 at that exchange rate, meaning the purchase described by the commenter would amount to about 9% of a minimum-wage worker’s basic monthly pay.

Iran says awaiting US response on Hormuz proposal

Sep 29, 2026, 13:28 GMT+1
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Vessels transit the Strait of Hormuz, a key route for global oil shipments.

Iran said on Tuesday it is awaiting a US response to its proposal for reopening the Strait of Hormuz, as regional oil flows continued to recover and the rial sank past 2.5 million to the dollar.

The developments put Iran’s efforts to secure relief for maritime trade alongside mounting economic pressure at home and warnings from Iranian and US officials over further confrontation.

“We are awaiting an official response from the United States through the mediators,” Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said.

Qatar was expected to relay Iran’s proposals to Washington and return with a response, possibly by Wednesday, Araghchi said. Iran had made no concessions and reopening Hormuz remained conditional on its demands being met, he added.

“At present, the only issue is the Strait of Hormuz,” Araghchi said. “Iran’s conditions are entirely fair and reasonable. If the Americans say they want an agreement or a peaceful solution, we have presented that solution.”

Oil flows recover despite risks in Hormuz

Persian Gulf oil exports have recovered despite disruption around Hormuz, potentially reducing the impact of restrictions on one of the world’s most important energy routes.

Oil shipments through the strait and alternative routes have returned to nearly 80% of pre-war regional levels, the Wall Street Journal reported Monday.

Crude exports from major Middle Eastern producers including Saudi Arabia, Iraq and the United Arab Emirates have climbed to almost 13 million barrels per day this month, their highest level since February, according to ship-tracking data cited by the Journal.

Risks to shipping persist. A vessel transiting Hormuz was struck by a suspected unknown projectile Monday evening, causing a fire that was later extinguished, the UK Maritime Trade Operations said. The crew was safe.

Against that backdrop, Iran tied the security of regional energy infrastructure to its own ability to export oil. “If we do not sell oil in a region, no one will sell oil there, and if our security is not guaranteed, no infrastructure will be safe,” parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf said Tuesday.

Rial crosses 2.5 million per dollar

Iran’s free-market exchange rate crossed 2.5 million rials to the dollar Tuesday, extending a currency decline that has increased import costs and eroded household purchasing power.

The dollar had reached 2.418 million rials Monday before gaining more than 80,000 rials, or over 3%, in less than 24 hours.

The decline comes alongside inflation, falling production, trade restrictions, foreign-currency shortages and difficulties transferring money.

Iran is seeking alternatives to maritime trade. Rail freight from China has increased tenfold since the US naval blockade began, lawmaker Meisam Zohourian said.

Three rail routes and expanded capacity at northern ports could provide overland capacity equivalent to about 400,000 barrels of oil a day, though they could not fully replace maritime trade, Zohourian said.

Revolutionary Guards prepare message to Americans

The Islamic Revolutionary Guards have addressed the American public in a letter portraying Iran as the victor in the war with the United States and crediting Mojtaba Khamenei’s leadership for the outcome.

“This is a letter, not a propaganda effort to shape the media narrative,” IRGC spokesman Hossein Mohebbi said Tuesday.

The letter said Khamenei’s “unparalleled command” had left “the world’s two leading military powers” unable to prevail and argued that his leadership gave Iran an advantage the United States lacked.

“A God-fearing and just leader, a wise scholar and a pure and courageous ascetic — this is what your armed forces and your country lack and do not have,” the Revolutionary Guards wrote in the letter to Americans.

Mohebbi also called US President Donald Trump “a big liar” and said Washington had no choice but to acknowledge failure and leave the region.

Washington, for its part, warned Iran against targeting US interests beyond the confrontation over Hormuz. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said Iran had openly threatened American interests around the world and would face repercussions for any attack or attempted attack.

Iran’s government, however, coupled its readiness for further conflict with an openness to diplomacy. “We are not afraid of war and we do not run away from negotiations,” government spokesperson Fatemeh Mohajerani said.

Iran's Guards urge Americans to vote out their leaders in 26-page letter

Sep 29, 2026, 12:58 GMT+1
•
Niloufar Goudarzi
100%

A designated terrorist organization has written to American voters. Iran's Revolutionary Guards sent a 26-page letter to US scholars, students and media describing a government in decline and telling Americans they have the power to change it at the ballot box in November.

The letter, published by Iranian media on Tuesday in English and Persian, presents the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps as a force for the people, portrays Iran as victorious and the United States as a power in decline, and returns repeatedly to a single instruction: that Americans turn against the politicians they elected.

The Guards and their Basij volunteer force led the suppression of nationwide protests in January, in which security forces killed tens of thousands of people in two days. A UN fact-finding mission said this month that the crackdown involved crimes against humanity.

Signs of 'decline'

"Tyranny, an excessive tendency to behave violently and murderously, relying on and promoting falsehoods, giving precedence to the vulgar elements of society over the wiser elements in occupying positions of power, and an inordinate preoccupation with inessential matters at the expense of society's essential affairs" are the signs of a state in decline, the letter says.

"The United States government today exemplifies all of these flaws."

  • UN rights chief urges Iran to halt executions over protests

    UN rights chief urges Iran to halt executions over protests

  • At least 916 executed in Iran since January - rights group

    At least 916 executed in Iran since January - rights group

  • UN experts say Iran steps up repression of ethnic minorities

    UN experts say Iran steps up repression of ethnic minorities

'Not a single verifiable instance'

The United States designates the Guards as a foreign terrorist organization. The letter rejects the label.

"There is not a single verifiable instance where the IRGC has committed an act of violence against civilians," it says. "In fact, it would not be an overstatement to assert that the Guards are the world's most effective organization in combating terrorism."

Amnesty International said this month that Iranian authorities carried out a systematic campaign of killings, torture and sexual violence to crush the Woman, Life, Freedom uprising of 2022. It named 87 officials, including senior Guards and police commanders, whom it said should be investigated for crimes against humanity, and documented 377 protest-related deaths, 56 of them children.

The UN fact-finding mission's report on the January 2026 crackdown cited unlawful killings, torture, arbitrary detention and enforced disappearances, and said the scale of the violence was a sharp escalation from earlier repression.

The Guards' Quds Force arms and funds Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Houthis in Yemen and militias in Iraq. Since the war began in February, Guards naval forces have attacked commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz.

  • Oslo rights conference urges concrete dialogue for Iran’s democratic future

    Oslo rights conference urges concrete dialogue for Iran’s democratic future

  • Experts say Iran entering era of constant unrest

    Experts say Iran entering era of constant unrest

'Take back control'

The letter tells Americans they are responsible for their government.

"You are the ones who empower, with your votes, the government and allow it to do what it does," it says. "Although American politicians often win your votes through deception and false promises, as Trump did, you can change the makeup of the government."

"The United States of America is a great nation," it adds. "To allow vulgar and immoral individuals to continue steering your politics and policies will only further humiliate and undermine the US. Take back control."

In Iran, candidates for president and parliament are vetted by the Guardian Council, an unelected body, before they can stand. The supreme leader is not elected by voters. Official turnout in the 2024 presidential election was about 40 percent.

The letter also explains the slogan "Death to America." "The true meaning of 'Death to America' is 'Death to the crimes perpetrated by the American elite,'" it says. "It is, in a word, not an expression of ill will toward the American people."

The slogan is chanted at state-organized rallies and Friday prayers across Iran and appears on murals maintained by the state in central Tehran, including on the walls of the former US embassy.

  • Iran’s rial hits another record low under economic and military pressure

    Iran’s rial hits another record low under economic and military pressure

  • War deepens Iran’s energy crunch ahead of winter

    War deepens Iran’s energy crunch ahead of winter

  • Iranians say basic food slipping beyond reach as bread prices soar

    Iranians say basic food slipping beyond reach as bread prices soar

'The dam will break'

The letter attacks Donald Trump and tells Americans their economy is failing.

"The US economy is on the precipice of collapse, and yet he keeps on telling Americans that the economy is booming and the prices will soon start coming down," it says. "This is, perhaps, his biggest lie. Soon, the dam will break, and the economy will implode, causing, unfortunately, great pain for Americans for many many years."

"The US economy will be hit by a massive economic earthquake that will affect the lives of all Americans," it adds. "You, the American people, have the power to forestall this grim fate."

On the day the letter circulated, the dollar traded above 2.5 million rials on Iran's open market. Iran's minimum monthly wage of 166 million rials is worth about $66 at that rate.

'We can live together'

The letter closes by asking Americans to press Washington to distance itself from Israel.

"We can live together in peaceful coexistence," it says. "Remove from power the evil, deceitful, and violent politicians who are responsible for America's current state. Entrust your affairs to the wise, not the wily. Make sure your politicians understand that the world has changed."

Khamenei’s vision of Iranian power faces a test of reality

Sep 29, 2026, 10:04 GMT+1
•
Hooman Abedi
100%
A large portrait of Iran’s Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei hangs above a street in Iran.

Iran’s Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei has portrayed the country as stronger after successive wars and pressures and among the world’s foremost powers, a vision that key economic and military indicators and recent regional events put to the test.

Khamenei described Iran as enjoying “progress, dignity and independence” and its highest standing in the Muslim world and beyond in a written message marking the anniversary of the Iran-Iraq War on Monday.

“Today, some consider us the world’s fourth superpower,” Khamenei wrote. He went further, saying that according to “divine calculations,” Iran is the “world’s top power.”

The depiction comes more than six months after Khamenei became supreme leader without making a public appearance.

No new photograph, video or audio recording of Khamenei has been released since his elevation to the post. Islamic Republic officials have said he remains in charge and has stayed out of public view for security reasons.

His absence extended to the days-long funeral and burial ceremonies for his father and predecessor, Ali Khamenei.

  • Will Mojtaba Khamenei's absence help the Islamic Republic survive?

    Will Mojtaba Khamenei's absence help the Islamic Republic survive?

That absence creates a contrast at the heart of a message centered on national strength and retreating adversaries. Khamenei invokes “millions” of Iranians taking to the streets and a country growing in power while remaining unseen by the public himself.

The ‘fourth superpower’ by what measure?

Khamenei does not identify those who regard Iran as the world’s fourth superpower or explain what measure produces that ranking.

Military spending offers one measurable comparison.

Iran spent an estimated $7.4 billion on its military in 2025, according to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute. The United States spent about $954 billion, China $336 billion and Russia $190 billion.

SIPRI says Iran also finances some military activities outside its regular budget, meaning actual expenditure could be higher. Even allowing for that, the available figures leave a wide gap between Iran and the world’s largest military spenders.

Economic measures offer another comparison. The International Monetary Fund estimates Iran will account for around 0.8% of the global economy on a purchasing-power-parity basis in 2026.

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A large portrait of Mojtaba Khamenei is displayed alongside Iranian flags at a public venue.

Khamenei moves his larger assertion outside such measurable criteria by invoking “divine calculations” to describe Iran as the world’s top power.

Military expenditure, economic output, trade, industrial capacity and the outcome of military operations can be measured. “Divine calculations” provide no equivalent benchmark for determining what outcome would confirm or contradict the assertion.

‘Progress’ meets inflation and contraction

Khamenei portrays pre-revolutionary Iran as an era of “backwardness, humiliation and disgrace,” contrasting it with a present filled with “progress, dignity and independence.”

Measured through economic conditions and everyday living standards, however, progress presents a more complicated picture.

The IMF projects average inflation of 68.9% in Iran in 2026 and a 5.4% contraction in the economy.

The World Bank has also pointed to pressure from war and sanctions, water and energy shortages, weak investment and rising poverty.

Those indicators raise a basic question about Khamenei’s broad description of progress: what is being measured, and for which part of Iranian society?

The enemy that supposedly stops at the Arabian Sea

One of the most readily testable parts of Khamenei’s message concerns foreign military activity in waters around Iran.

Waters south of the country were once a domain for enemy forces, Khamenei wrote, but “painful blows” by Iranian forces and the “defenders of the Strait of Hormuz” mean those adversaries now advance no further than the Arabian Sea.

Military activity in recent months presents a more complicated geographical picture.

US officials told Axios in August that the American military had established a shipping route through the Strait of Hormuz, with around 15 to 20 tankers entering or leaving each night. The operation allowed roughly 10 million barrels of oil to move through the waterway each day, according to the officials.

The US military presence in waters around Iran continued in September.

The Revolutionary Guards fired ballistic missiles toward a US aircraft carrier and destroyer in early September, according to US military accounts. American forces also struck Iranian oil tankers near Kharg Island and in the Gulf of Oman.

  • All Mojtaba's men: Old guard shapes Iran’s new order

    All Mojtaba's men: Old guard shapes Iran’s new order

US Central Command said on September 8 that an American warship continued patrolling regional waters after being targeted twice by Iranian missiles over two days. US forces struck five Iranian tankers during the same operation in the Gulf of Oman and near Kharg Island.

The maritime pressure has also become part of negotiations between the two countries. Iran would be prepared to reopen the Strait of Hormuz if Washington reduced military pressure and lifted its blockade of Iranian ports, a senior Iranian official told Reuters on September 22.

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A woman holds a portrait of Mojtaba Khamenei, with his father Ali Khamenei pictured in the background.

US operations in the Strait of Hormuz, Gulf of Oman and waters close to Iran therefore do not fit an absolute geographical reading of Khamenei’s assertion that adversaries no longer advance beyond the Arabian Sea.

‘Millions of supporters’ and the Iranians left out

Khamenei also presents pro-establishment mobilization over the past seven months as evidence of domestic strength and cohesion.

“More than 30 million Iranians have declared themselves ready for self-sacrifice,” he wrote, adding that more than 500,000 people filled the available capacity of one registration drive in just 100 minutes.

Even if those figures are accepted, mobilizing millions of people does not by itself measure support across Iranian society.

Iran during the same period witnessed nationwide protests that began over economic grievances in late December 2025, spread rapidly across the country and developed into direct protests against the political establishment. The demonstrations subsided after a sweeping crackdown.

The government put the death toll at 3,117. Iran International’s Editorial Board estimated that more than 36,500 people were killed, based on classified security documents, field reports and information from medical workers, with most deaths occurring on January 8 and 9.

In Khamenei’s account, government supporters filling streets provide evidence of national unity and strength. Opponents occupying those same public spaces are not given comparable weight in assessing the state of Iranian society.

Khamenei’s own absence again becomes relevant. He invokes millions of Iranians gathering in streets and squares, but more than six months after becoming supreme leader has yet to appear among them or release a public video or audio message.

‘Victory’ and Hezbollah’s losses

Khamenei applies a similar conception of power to Iran’s regional allies.

He describes “victory and triumph” as the constant companions of late Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah and presents his successor, Naim Qassem, as continuing the same path.

Hezbollah’s present position complicates a narrative of uninterrupted victory.

Nasrallah was killed and Hezbollah lost a significant number of senior commanders. Israel’s operation against the group’s communications network also exposed the extent of Israeli intelligence penetration into its structures.

Inside Lebanon, Hezbollah’s weapons have become central to one of the country’s major political disputes. The Lebanese government has pursued a process aimed at bringing the group’s weapons under state control, which Hezbollah opposes.

The death of a leader and senior commanders, combined with political pressure to transfer control of a group’s weapons to the state, sits uneasily alongside a historical description centered on permanent “victory and triumph.”

A definition of power with little room for defeat

The central issue in Khamenei’s message may be less any single assertion than the way power itself is defined.

In his account, the Islamic Republic emerged stronger from the eight-year Iran-Iraq War. Subsequent pressure, he said, made it stronger. More recent wars have made the Islamic Republic’s “phoenix” larger, while its future will be “far more glorious.”

Such a framework can absorb sharply different outcomes without altering its conclusion.

If an adversary retreats, that demonstrates strength. If fighting continues, that demonstrates resistance. Economic pressure becomes the cost of independence. If a regional ally loses leaders and commanders, the continuation of its cause takes precedence. Government supporters in the streets demonstrate popular backing, while opponents filling those streets are given no equivalent role in measuring political strength.

Within such a definition, defeat becomes increasingly difficult to identify.

National power can also be examined through observable outcomes: a country’s capacity to protect its territory and infrastructure, influence an adversary’s behavior, maintain economic stability, achieve foreign policy objectives, preserve regional influence and retain domestic support.

  • Iran publishes purported handwritten Mojtaba Khamenei letter to IRGC general

    Iran publishes purported handwritten Mojtaba Khamenei letter to IRGC general

Measured against such indicators, Iran’s ability to impose costs on its adversaries does not by itself establish the status invoked by Khamenei when he describes the country as the “fourth superpower” or, according to “divine calculations,” the world’s top power.

That leaves the central question running through his message: if decades of war, pressure and confrontation have elevated Iran to such a position, which military, economic, social or regional measures demonstrate it?

The question takes on additional weight when this portrait of national power comes not from a leader addressing the public, but through a written message from a supreme leader who, more than six months after taking Iran’s highest office, has yet to be seen or heard by Iranians in a public appearance.