Ghalibaf taunts US military chief over damaged warplanes

“We are ashamed that the public’s income does not cover their expenses, especially for wage earners,” First Vice President Mohammad Reza Aref said Thursday. “You cannot increase salaries by 20% when inflation is running above 60–70%.”

Government spokeswoman Fatemeh Mohajerani has disclosed a roughly 310-trillion-toman shortfall in expected tax revenues during the first half of the current year, while the head of the Food and Drug Administration says medicine prices have risen roughly 103% this year.

President Masoud Pezeshkian has offered an equally stark assessment of the public mood, invoking the 2019 fuel-price protests as a warning against imposing further economic pressure.

“People are now on the edge; if I impose another pressure, they may fall off,” he said.

The warning has not prevented the government from doubling the gasoline price for high-volume consumers, highlighting the difficult choices facing Tehran as it tries to contain household pressure while confronting the economic costs of war.

The household squeeze

The free-market dollar has traded at around 2.30–2.33 million rials this week, with the Iranian currency losing roughly 44% of its value against the dollar over the past six months.

Food and beverage inflation has officially exceeded 127% year on year, contributing to a sharp contraction in consumption of protein, dairy products and legumes among urban working-class households.

State-run ILNA has published unusually blunt reports on the cost of living, including unofficial bread-price increases in Tehran, families cutting meat from their diets and rents doubling.

The financial daily Donya-ye Eghtesad has warned of signs of a “new inflationary regime” in which persistent price rises are shaping contracts, expectations and everyday economic decisions, making confidence in the rial increasingly difficult to restore.

The approaching academic year provides another measure of the squeeze.

According to Donya-ye Eghtesad, equipping a single primary or secondary-school student with basic uniforms, a schoolbag, shoes and stationery now costs between 150 million and 200 million rials.

A basic pack of notebooks that cost around 3.5 million rials last year now costs approximately 15 million, forcing some lower-income families to reuse old school supplies.

War adds to the strain

Iranian oil exports have reportedly fallen from around 2 million barrels per day before the war to approximately 220,000–255,000 barrels per day in August, sharply reducing one of Tehran’s principal sources of foreign currency.

The Economy Ministry has established an “Economic War Headquarters” as officials increasingly frame the economic crisis as part of the broader confrontation with Washington. But falling oil revenues leave the government with fewer resources to cushion households against rising prices and a weakening currency.

Oil-industry workers have staged weekly Monday protests over pay and taxes at offshore platforms and in Assaluyeh, while nurses demonstrated in Kermanshah on September 8 over unpaid wages.

Accounts in Iranian media offer a more immediate picture of the pressure behind such discontent: street vendors struggling with higher rents, households going months without eating meat and parents weighing school expenses against basic food costs.

The combination of high inflation, declining purchasing power and sharply reduced oil revenues leaves Tehran with increasingly limited room to ask households to absorb further economic costs from the war.

The event, named Janfadayan-e Iran, roughly "those ready to give their lives for Iran," began in the morning on the order of Hassan Hassanzadeh, commander of the Guards' Tehran corps, with the password "Labbaik ya Khamenei," at your service, Khamenei.

State media put the number on the streets at more than 300,000 and said 600,000 had registered for military training. None of the figures could be independently verified. State television had spent several days urging Iranians to sign up.

The organizers billed it as a 313,000-strong parade, a number with religious rather than statistical meaning. Shiite tradition holds that 313 companions will rise alongside the Hidden Imam, the twelfth imam of Shiite Islam, who is believed to have vanished in the ninth century and to be destined to return.

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Hassanzadeh said the purpose of the exercise was to counter "the propaganda and media operations of the enemies of the Islamic Republic."

Hossein Taeb, the former Revolutionary Guards intelligence chief who now heads the Basij, described the marchers as "resistance battalions" ready for "full-fledged defense" and called the campaign "the biggest popular movement in the history of the world's wars."

Similar parades would follow in every province, he said, and the United States would soon be defeated and leave the region.

President Masoud Pezeshkian attended and described the display as "a magnificent manifestation of solidarity, cohesion and national loyalty."

Footage from the event showed, alongside Basij units and supporters organized by the Guards, children and teenagers marshalled by the Basij, and members of Iran-backed groups from the region, including Houthis.

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Women from the Guards carried rifles beneath a banner showing Donald Trump in crosshairs above the words "We will kill." Participants trampled US and Israeli flags. Anti-aircraft batteries, truck-mounted machine guns and the drones used against shipping in the Strait of Hormuz were put on display.

The parade closed a week in which the rial fell past 2.3 million to the dollar under a US naval blockade and new sanctions, and came two days after the fourth anniversary of the death of Mahsa Amini in morality police custody, which set off the 2022 protests.

Police and the Guards had increased patrols in Tehran and Isfahan ahead of the date.

Iranian officials say attacks have knocked out about 230 million cubic metres a day of gas-production capacity, compared with pre-war output of roughly 650 million cubic metres a day. That is just over a third of pre-war production.

Tehran has begun trying to claw some of that capacity back. Officials have said roughly 100 million cubic metres a day could be restored in the coming months, still less than half the capacity reported lost.

But restoring production is only part of the problem. Rystad Energy estimated in April that repairing damage to Iran’s energy infrastructure could cost as much as $19 billion, affecting gas processing, refining and export facilities.

That figure covers physical repairs rather than the wider economic consequences of lost production, disrupted exports and industrial shutdowns. Rystad has also identified shortages of critical equipment and workers as major obstacles to recovery.

Winter could provide the first major test of whether Iran can repair enough of its energy system quickly enough to prevent wartime damage from developing into a broader economic crisis.

A system already under pressure

Iran entered the war with an energy system already struggling to match supply with demand.

The US Energy Information Administration has said sanctions slowed development of the country’s natural-gas infrastructure and that limited storage capacity left Iran poorly equipped to manage seasonal swings in consumption.

In 2022, residential and commercial consumers accounted for 33% of Iran’s gas consumption, industry including petrochemicals for 27%, and electricity generation for another 28%, according to the EIA.

Household and commercial gas consumption rises during winter, while demand from the electricity sector is highest during summer.

The loss of production capacity therefore leaves Tehran having to allocate a reduced supply among households, power stations, petrochemical plants and other industrial users.

The problem is not simply how much gas Iran has underground. Gas reserves alone do not guarantee reliable supply: the country also needs functioning processing plants, pipelines and storage facilities, as well as electricity, maintenance, equipment and skilled workers to keep the system operating.

Damage beyond gas

Reduced gas supplies to power plants could constrain electricity generation, while restrictions on industrial users could hit petrochemicals and energy-intensive sectors such as steel, aluminium and cement.

That means the eventual cost of the damage cannot be measured solely by the reconstruction bill. Lower production can also translate into weaker industrial output and exports at a time when Tehran needs resources to finance repairs.

Iran's broader energy sector is already under severe financial pressure. The war and US naval blockade have sharply curtailed Iranian oil exports, leaving tens of millions of barrels stranded in storage and depriving Tehran of crude export revenue.

The combination creates the risk of a cycle in which energy shortages constrain economic activity while reduced revenues make restoring the energy system more difficult.

A longer-term problem

The war has also magnified structural weaknesses that predate the conflict.

South Pars, which Iran shares with Qatar, is the country's largest non-associated natural-gas field and the centre of its gas industry. But the EIA had already warned before the war that without additional investment Iran could struggle to satisfy domestic demand while meeting its export commitments.

Sanctions have restricted access to foreign investment, technology and specialised equipment, leaving Tehran with an existing infrastructure challenge before US and Israeli attacks added an urgent reconstruction burden.

Rystad said delays in procuring critical equipment were likely to determine how quickly damaged energy infrastructure could be restored, while shortages of workers were another major obstacle.

The winter test

For Tehran, the immediate question is how much of the reported 230 million cubic metres a day of lost gas capacity can be restored before colder weather drives household demand higher. How severe the remaining deficit becomes will depend on demand, further repairs and whether additional infrastructure is damaged.

Tehran may have to balance household heating against industrial production and electricity generation while trying to rebuild infrastructure under sanctions.

Rystad's $19 billion estimate gives a sense of the potential physical repair bill. The larger test is whether Iran can restore enough of the system to prevent damaged gas infrastructure from feeding through into electricity shortages, industrial disruption and further economic pressure.

The coming winter should provide the clearest indication yet.

For critics of the government, the gatherings have long carried a message beyond support for Iran during the war: that the street belongs to supporters of the Islamic Republic.

Coming after the mass protests of January, critics have viewed their nightly presence as a form of intimidation and a way of denying public space to potential dissent. For many, the effect is more mundane but relentless: late-night loudspeakers, road closures and disruption to daily life.

But the rallies have increasingly taken on another function. Participants have chanted against Parliament Speaker Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf, Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, President Masoud Pezeshkian and former presidents Hassan Rouhani and Mohammad Khatami.

Some gatherings have also featured demands for strict enforcement of Iran’s controversial hijab law, whose implementation has been held back following a decision by the Supreme National Security Council amid concerns over public backlash.

The shift has prompted warnings that gatherings promoted as demonstrations of national unity are becoming arenas for political score-settling.

The Supreme National Security Council-linked Nour News website described videos showing increasingly harsh slogans at recent gatherings as a “worrying shift in Iran’s political scene.”

“When street gatherings become a place for ‘death to’ and ‘down with’ slogans against domestic political figures, the first sign of a shift in the direction of popular reactions—from the foreign enemy to the domestic rival—becomes apparent,” Nour News wrote.

That shift is particularly significant because hardline media have portrayed the nightly gatherings as a measure of national opinion.

The hardline Hamshahri newspaper marked the 200th night with an article titled “200 Nights of Referendum,” presenting continued participation as an answer to politicians who have called for the public to be consulted over the country’s direction.

“Two hundred nights of participation in nighttime gatherings are a completely clear response to the doubts of some politicians who believe that the people should be consulted and a referendum held in order to continue the resistance,” it wrote.

The article was referring to Rouhani’s recent suggestion that continuing the war and confrontation with the United States and Western countries should be subject to consultation with the public.

The reformist Shargh newspaper warned that a social gathering that began in the name of “patriotism” could acquire a different meaning if it became a place for deciding “who has the right to speak about the country’s policies and who does not.”

Even the conservative daily Khorasan, considered close to Ghalibaf, called for a review of how the gatherings are organised in an article titled “200 Nights of Taking the Field.”

It questioned the use of the gatherings to promote hijab-related demands that it said exacerbate social divisions. It also highlighted complaints about the disruption the gatherings cause to residents and traffic.

“What image of these gatherings forms in citizens’ minds when the sound of loudspeakers keeps a sick person in a nearby home awake late into the night, or when hastily organized vehicle convoys create severe traffic jams and leave a driver exhausted after a day’s work stuck in traffic?” the newspaper asked.

Similar complaints have appeared on social media.

One X user urged supporters of the rallies to ask shopkeepers, residents and taxi drivers what they thought of the disruption, asking: “What has that taxi driver done to deserve sitting in traffic because of 30 government supporters?”

Another user, Morteza Rezazadeh, pointed to the changing targets of the slogans: from Israel and the United States to Iran’s president and parliament speaker. Mossad can “rest easy,” he quipped, because those chanting were doing its work for it.

After 200 consecutive nights, the dispute over the gatherings is therefore no longer simply about noise, traffic or even demonstrations of support for the state. It has become a dispute over who controls the street, who can claim to speak for the public and who inside the Islamic Republic is considered a legitimate political voice.

Trump told Axios he was approaching a major decision on whether to resume broad attacks on Iran, after saying a day earlier that he hoped the war was nearing its end.

“I have a big decision coming up. Do I want to go in and annihilate them [the Iranian regime] or do I not? It's a big decision. Anything could happen with me,” Trump said in an interview published Thursday.

He is expected to meet leaders from Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Bahrain, Kuwait and Oman on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly next week before deciding on the next phase of the war. Axios reported that Trump wants to hear from regional allies before making his decision.

The consultations come as Washington’s partners and rivals push in different directions over whether the war should be contained or intensified.

China intensifies diplomatic push

China expanded its diplomatic engagement over the conflict Thursday, when Foreign Minister Wang Yi spoke with US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, one day after holding talks with Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi in Beijing.

China’s Foreign Ministry said Wang and Rubio discussed preparations for the next stage of high-level exchanges between the two countries and exchanged views on the Middle East.

During Wednesday’s talks with Araghchi, Wang urged Iran and the United States to exercise restraint and resume substantive consultations, while also calling for the Strait of Hormuz to reopen.

Beijing’s diplomacy comes as the conflict threatens shipping routes at both ends of the Arabian Peninsula, increasing the risk of wider disruption to regional energy flows.

China has also privately asked Iran to use its influence to rein in Yemen’s Houthis after Saudi Arabia appealed to China for help, Reuters reported Thursday, citing three Iranian sources familiar with the matter.

The sources said Saudi Arabia sought Beijing’s intervention as Houthi advances around Bab el-Mandeb increased risks to oil exports and commercial shipping. China asked Tehran to help prevent the fighting from spreading further across energy routes important to Beijing.

The intensified diplomacy has not narrowed broader differences between Beijing and Washington over Iran.

Russia and China on Thursday vetoed a US-drafted Security Council resolution extending the mandate of the UN panel monitoring sanctions on Tehran, underscoring the continuing divide over the international sanctions framework.

Israel signals campaign is not over

While China pressed for restraint, Israel signaled that it was not ready for the military campaign to end.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Israel still had work to complete against Iran and its regional allies and said Israel intended to bring down Iran’s regime.

“We have done most of the work, but there is still work to complete, and we will complete it,” Netanyahu said in remarks published Thursday by his official account.

Defense Minister Israel Katz separately said Israel still had “important goals” to achieve against Iran and in other arenas, adding that the broader military campaign was not over.

“We will act with military force and political wisdom to achieve them,” Katz said.

Shipping pressure persists from Hormuz to Aden

The stakes surrounding Trump’s decision were also visible at sea, where commercial traffic remained severely depressed and new security incidents were reported along key regional shipping routes.

Only three commodity vessels transited the Strait of Hormuz Wednesday, down from 12 a day earlier and well below the 10-day average of about 17, Reuters reported Thursday, citing preliminary ship-tracking data.

The figures exclude vessels that may have crossed with their Automatic Identification System transponders switched off.

Fresh maritime security reports added to concerns over the region’s main shipping routes.

UK Maritime Trade Operations said it received a report of a security event in the Strait of Hormuz about 16 nautical miles northeast of Khasab, Oman. The crew was reported safe and no environmental impact had been confirmed while authorities investigated.

Farther west, a westbound tanker in the Gulf of Aden reported being pursued by a skiff that attempted to intercept it about 75 nautical miles east of Aden, according to UKMTO.

Trump has not said when he will decide whether to resume large-scale strikes. His meeting with six Persian Gulf leaders next Tuesday will bring him face to face with governments exposed to the economic and security costs of a wider conflict, as Washington weighs whether to intensify the campaign or pursue another diplomatic opening.