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Vance says Iran war will enter ‘much different phase’ after midterms - NY Post

Sep 15, 2026, 21:34 GMT+1

The US war with Iran will enter a “much different phase” in the coming months, Vice President JD Vance told the New York Post, backing President Donald Trump’s view that the conflict could shift after the November midterm elections.

“We can’t predict the future, but I think the president is right to say that this thing will enter a much different phase in a couple of months,” Vance said in an interview aboard Air Force Two on Monday.

Vance said the United States was no longer engaged in what he called “aggressive operations,” while Iran continued occasionally firing at commercial shipping. He said traffic through the Strait of Hormuz had returned to “well over 50% of normal traffic.”

“There are really two phases to this thing, and the first phase is done,” Vance said, describing the initial US objective as destroying Iran’s nuclear program, conventional military and ability to project power.

He said the next phase would focus on preventing Iran from rebuilding those capabilities and maintaining global stability.

Trump said last week that he expected the war to end immediately after the midterm elections, according to the Post.

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US pilot rescue inside Iran draws mockery of Guards
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ANALYSIS

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Spotlight

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    ‘This is the cost you must pay’: Iran accused of denying food to death-row twin

  • January's unfinished love stories: Lives severed by Iran protest killings

    January's unfinished love stories: Lives severed by Iran protest killings

  • After Muscat collapse, Tehran argues over what comes next
    ANALYSIS

    After Muscat collapse, Tehran argues over what comes next

  • Xi’s BRICS peace call sparks debate in Iran over China’s role in war

    Xi’s BRICS peace call sparks debate in Iran over China’s role in war

  • Iran's Saudi leverage could become its liability
    ANALYSIS

    Iran's Saudi leverage could become its liability

  • US pilot rescue inside Iran draws mockery of Guards

    US pilot rescue inside Iran draws mockery of Guards

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Tehran political circles see US hand in postponement of Oman Hormuz talks

Sep 15, 2026, 20:28 GMT+1
•
Maryam Sinaiee
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Omani Foreign Minister Badr al Busaidi visited Tehran on August 25, 2026 for talks with his counterpart Abbas Araghchi.

Iranian lawmakers, hardline media and analysts have blamed Washington for postponing Oman-hosted talks on Strait of Hormuz shipping arrangements, despite officials attributing the delay to regional objections and Saudi concerns over Yemen.

Omani Foreign Minister Badr Albusaidi said the meeting, scheduled for Monday in Salalah, was postponed “in the interests of consensus.” An Iranian Foreign Ministry official separately said the delay came at the request of “some regional countries,” while spokesman Esmail Baghaei said Saudi Arabia had sought the postponement because of developments in Yemen.

No new date has been announced for the meeting.

Baghaei described the planned gathering as an “opportunity” created by Iran and Oman and urged regional states not to let it slip away.

“I don’t think any responsible party would accept that we should lose this opportunity for any reason, whether because of outside interference or because of excuses that really have nothing to do with Iran, and that we should not hold this meeting,” he said Monday.

Several voices in Iran have gone further, explicitly accusing Washington of working to derail the initiative.

Fada-Hossein Maleki, a member of parliament’s National Security and Foreign Policy Committee, told Tabnak that the United States had sought from the outset to prevent the Muscat process from taking shape or, if the meeting went ahead, to ensure Washington participated as a third party.

He said an Iran-Oman understanding on Hormuz could represent “another political defeat for the United States” because Washington had sought a role in arrangements concerning the strategic waterway, while Iran and Oman had pursued dialogue over its future management and shipping arrangements independently of Tehran-Washington negotiations.

Ali Gholhaki, an adviser to parliamentary speaker Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf, wrote on X that Saudi Arabia, Bahrain and the United Arab Emirates had obstructed the Oman meeting, but said “the main actor behind the cancellation of this meeting is America!”

International affairs analyst Mir-Ghasem Momeni offered a similar interpretation, telling ILNA that the postponement was aimed at increasing pressure on Iran and extracting further concessions.

“This is a scenario designed by the Americans, with Saudi Arabia and other countries carrying it out,” he said.

Saudi concerns offer another explanation

Saudi Arabia’s request came amid mounting tensions over Yemen and attacks on its energy infrastructure, providing a more immediate explanation for Riyadh’s reluctance to proceed with the talks.

The Houthis have stepped up pressure on Saudi Arabia amid fighting in Yemen, while attacks on Saudi energy infrastructure have added to concerns over the security of alternative export routes as traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains disrupted.

Hardline Kayhan newspaper nevertheless alleged that Saudi Arabia had used the recent escalation involving the Houthis and attacks on Saudi infrastructure as a pretext to derail the planned meeting.

The Javan newspaper, affiliated with the Revolutionary Guards (IRGC), sought to connect Riyadh’s position more directly to Washington, pointing to Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s meeting with US Central Command chief Adm. Brad Cooper on Monday as evidence of what it described as US-Saudi coordination against the talks.

The meeting took place after Oman announced the postponement on Sunday night, however, and there is no public evidence linking Cooper’s visit to the decision to delay the Salalah gathering. Saudi state media said Mohammed bin Salman and Cooper discussed bilateral relations and the latest regional developments.

Limits of regional diplomacy

Some Iranian analysts have interpreted the postponement as evidence of a broader problem with attempts to resolve the Hormuz crisis solely through regional diplomacy.

Momeni argued that Washington retained enough influence over Persian Gulf Arab states to prevent them from reaching an independent arrangement with Tehran.

“The solution to the Strait of Hormuz problem is not an agreement between Iran and the Arab countries, but an agreement between Iran and the United States,” he said.

Political analyst Rahman Ghahramanpour wrote on X that the postponement was a sign of President Donald Trump’s reluctance to revive the Islamabad framework and his preference for designing a new framework that would simultaneously address the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and the nuclear issue.

International relations professor Mohsen Jalilvand told Fararu that it had been clear from the outset that the meeting either would not take place or would fail to produce a tangible outcome because the principal parties to the conflict, particularly the United States and Israel, were absent from the negotiating table.

Jalilvand said that if the objective was to establish a durable mechanism for managing transit through the Strait of Hormuz, parties with genuine deterrent capabilities and the power to enforce an agreement would have to participate.

“Otherwise, regional treaties alone cannot provide a strong security guarantee for changing the current situation,” he said.

He added that the significance of the Oman meeting lay not simply in whether it was held, but in what its postponement revealed about the limits of regional diplomacy.

Opposition inside Iran

Not all criticism inside Iran has focused on why the meeting was postponed.

Kayhan editor Hossein Shariatmadari, a strong opponent of the understanding with Oman, has argued that the proposed arrangement amounts to giving the United States “a breathing space” and that Iran should not negotiate with other Persian Gulf countries over reopening the Strait of Hormuz.

In a Monday commentary, Shariatmadari sharply criticized the decision to invite other Persian Gulf states to the meeting, accusing them of protecting US and Israeli interests.

“As long as they have not paid the price for supporting the crimes of America and Israel and have not been punished, they should have no role or presence whatsoever in the decision-making of the Islamic Republic of Iran,” he wrote.

January's unfinished love stories: Lives severed by Iran protest killings

Sep 15, 2026, 19:05 GMT+1
•
Farnoosh Faraji
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Matin Ghorbani’s wife, Mahsa Khanjani, embraces his body after he was shot dead during protests in Karaj on January 9.

Eight months after Iran's January protests, the partners left behind by some of those killed are recounting lives abruptly divided by gunfire – marriages measured in months or days, anniversaries spent at graves and final embraces they never knew were their last.

Their accounts preserve the intimate details of loss: the last phone call, kiss and touch, and plans for weddings and futures that never came.

A marriage cut short after 16 months

Shahrouz Mehrabi, a 36-year-old electrical engineer from Borujerd, was shot dead in Saveh on January 8, his wife Parvaneh's birthday.

The couple had struggled for years to build a life together. Their marriage lasted one year and four months.

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Shahrouz Mehrabi and his wife, Parvaneh, on their wedding day. Mehrabi was shot dead on January 8, his wife's birthday, after one year and four months of marriage.

“We loved each other and went through so much to finally be together,” Parvaneh wrote.

She remembered Shahrouz as kind, in love with life and full of plans. His death left those plans unfinished and turned her birthday into the anniversary of his killing.

  • Wounded January protester killed before his family, sources say

    Wounded January protester killed before his family, sources say

‘I wish I had held you longer’

Matin Ghorbani, a 23-year-old barista, was shot dead during protests in Karaj on January 9.

His wife, Mahsa Khanjani, later published a photograph of herself embracing Matin's body.

“Why does this have to be our last picture?” she wrote.

In a recent video, Mahsa described the months that followed: nights reaching morning without him and memories of a final phone call, embrace and kiss that seemed ordinary because she did not know they were farewells.

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Matin Ghorbani and his wife, Mahsa Khanjani, before Ghorbani was shot dead during protests in Karaj on January 9.

“I wish I had known it was the last time,” she said. “I wish I had held you longer, looked at you longer. I wish I had recorded your voice more deeply in my mind.”

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Meysam Ghaderi and his wife on their wedding day. Ghaderi was shot dead during protests in Karaj on January 8, just seven days after the couple married following an 11-year relationship.

Seven days of marriage

Meysam Ghaderi, 32, and his partner had been together for 11 years before finally marrying.

Seven days later, he was dead.

Meysam was shot in the neck during protests in Karaj on January 8, leaving a marriage that had taken more than a decade to reach barely a week old.

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Elham Sadeghi marks her wedding anniversary beside a photograph of her husband, Mohsen Jabbarzadeh, after his death during Iran’s January protests.

A ninth anniversary without him

For Elham Sadeghi, another anniversary arrived this month without her husband, Mohsen Jabbarzadeh.

Mohsen, 41, who owned a currency exchange business, was killed during protests on Tehran’s Salsabil Street on January 9 after being shot with live ammunition.

His injuries were so severe that he died within minutes. At the hospital, his family was told the bullet had severed the main artery in his leg.

Marking what would have been their ninth wedding anniversary on September 12, Elham remembered how hard they had fought to build their life together.

“We went through so much to be together, we fought so hard,” she wrote. “My love, I love you forever.”

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Sadegh Ghorbani and his wife, Atefeh Saei, on their wedding day. Ghorbani, 28, was shot during protests in Shahr-e Qods and died on January 10.

A first anniversary at his grave

Sadegh Ghorbani, 28, was shot in Shahr-e Qods near Tehran and died on January 10.

His wife, Atefeh Saei, spent their first wedding anniversary not beside him, but at his grave.

“Our first wedding anniversary; me without you, alone, frightened and in shock,” she wrote on Instagram.

In another post, Atefeh recalled touching her husband's cold body and fighting through a crowd to reach his coffin.

“I hate my hands; with these hands I touched your frozen body,” she wrote. “With these same hands, I made my way through the crowd to your coffin, held your lifeless feet and said: Don't be afraid. Go without worry, go in peace.”

Saei later described placing earth over her husband's body herself, fearful even during his burial that authorities might take his remains from the family.

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Aida Heidari and her fiancé, Abolfazl Soleimani Al-Mouti, before his death during protests in Qazvin on January 9. Heidari died by suicide eight months later, around the time the couple had planned to marry.

A wedding that never came

For Aida Heidari, 25, the future she had planned with her fiancé Abolfazl Soleimani Alamouti was supposed to begin around now.

Abolfazl was killed during protests in Qazvin's Zibashahr district on January 9. Their wedding was planned for about eight months later, people close to the couple said.

On September 3, around the time she would have been preparing for that wedding, Heidari died by suicide.

  • Fiancée of slain protester, father of another die by suicide in Iran

    Fiancée of slain protester, father of another die by suicide in Iran

People close to Heidari said she had struggled with grief and psychological distress in the months after Soleimani Alamouti’s death. However, the circumstances that led to her suicide are not independently known.

After Muscat collapse, Tehran argues over what comes next

Sep 15, 2026, 14:14 GMT+1
•
Behrouz Turani
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Vessels near the Strait of Hormuz, as seen from Musandam, Oman, August 31, 2026.

Iranian newspapers that agree on almost nothing agreed on Monday that the Muscat talks had collapsed. Kayhan, Shargh and Donya-ye Eghtesad all reported it, and the argument has already moved to what Tehran does next.

Kayhan on the hard right, and Shargh and Donya-ye Eghtesad on the pragmatic and pro-reform side of the divide, all reported that the talks in Oman had effectively broken down, leaving Tehran without an immediate way out and its economy exposed to worsening inflation, shortages and a lurching currency.

The meeting had been meant to give Iran a diplomatic opening. Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi was due to present maps for a "managed transit corridor" through the Strait of Hormuz, and to seek regional endorsement of an Iran-Oman "phased framework," a temporary joint corridor and mine-clearance plan.

It did not happen. Fars News, affiliated with the Revolutionary Guards, reported that the postponement had been a joint decision by Tehran and Muscat, taken at the request of unnamed "certain regional countries."

Behind that phrasing sat a refusal. Saudi Arabia and Bahrain did not attend, and the Arab monarchies of the Persian Gulf declined to endorse Iran's transit proposal. They were being asked to back a plan for safe passage through Hormuz at a moment when Iran-aligned Houthi forces were expanding strikes on Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline and fortifying coastal artillery at Bab el-Mandeb after taking the port of Mokha.

Washington's position was its own obstacle. It rejected treating the shipping question in isolation, insisting any transit arrangement be tied to broader nuclear concessions. Tehran's answer was that normal shipping requires an immediate halt to US tanker interdictions and the release of $24 billion in frozen Iranian assets under the Islamabad framework. Neither side moved.

The argument in Tehran

With the diplomatic route stalled, the argument inside Iran has turned to force, and the failure in Oman has sharpened it.

Kayhan, other Guards-aligned outlets and figures in the ultraconservative Paydari Front are pressing to abandon proportional retaliation altogether and to strike all Western-aligned shipping if a single Iranian vessel is hit.

They have paired this with a push to treat calls for referendums or ceasefires as treason, to cast economic hardship as an ideological duty, and to demand full withdrawal from the Non-Proliferation Treaty after the IAEA referred Iran to the UN Security Council.

Reformist and moderate figures in the administration argue instead for keeping the channels through Qatar and Oman open and putting economic survival first. But this is a dispute over method, not over the system either camp is defending: one faction would answer the blockade with escalation across the Persian Gulf and Red Sea, the other fears that combining a naval blockade abroad with intensified repression at home would leave Iran isolated on both fronts at once.

That repression is already visible. Police and the Revolutionary Guards have increased street patrols and moved additional forces into Tehran and Isfahan ahead of the anniversary of the 2022 Woman, Life, Freedom protests, which began in mid-September.

The economy behind the argument

The deadlock feeds directly into the crisis that produced the talks in the first place.

Point-to-point inflation is nearing 90 percent, and on the open market the rial is at 2.3 million to the dollar. Against a minimum monthly wage now worth about $72, the volatility alone makes household budgeting impossible.

The sharpest damage is in medicine. Container backlogs at Bandar Abbas, Iran's main southern port, have choked domestic pharmaceutical production and caused acute shortages of essential drugs. Out-of-pocket medical costs have more than doubled, pushing low-income households to abandon treatment. In call-ins to Persian-language television abroad, viewers have described selling household belongings to pay for care.

The government's own remedies have added to the strain. It has raised petrol prices and drawn on the central bank's foreign currency reserves, steps that have deepened the erosion of public trust rather than eased it.

The postponement, then, does more than delay a meeting. It removes Tehran's nearest diplomatic exit at a moment when the hardline factions are pressing for wider retaliation across the Persian Gulf and the Red Sea, and when the economy can least absorb what that would cost. Whatever Iran's rival camps decide, it is private businesses and urban households that will carry it.

Hormuz traffic plunges ahead of Iran-China talks

Sep 15, 2026, 13:54 GMT+1
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An Indian liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) carrier, Shivalik, arrives at Mundra Port via the Strait of Hormuz, amid the US-Israel conflict with Iran, in Gujarat, India, March 16, 2026.

Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz fell sharply as Iran prepared diplomatic talks in China, while attacks on Saudi Arabia and damage to Persian Gulf cloud infrastructure underscored the widening consequences of the war on Tuesday.

Only four commodity vessels crossed Hormuz on Monday, down from 10 on Sunday, Reuters reported, citing preliminary Kpler data. Two dry-bulk carriers exited, one carrying cargo and the other empty, while two empty oil tankers entered. The figures exclude ships that may have crossed with their tracking transponders switched off. TankerTrackers separately said two-way daytime traffic by very large crude carriers was continuing.

The dangers facing shipping were illustrated by the Panama-flagged tanker Elgaia, which Oman’s Maritime Security Center said was being towed to port after catching fire following an earlier attack.

An Omani naval vessel evacuated 23 crew members and arranged medical care, while searches continued for two missing people. The incident occurred about 1.3 nautical miles northeast of Musandam governorate. The statement did not identify an attacker.

Pressure also intensified around Bab el-Mandeb, the southern gateway to the Red Sea. Commodity-vessel transits there fell to 21 on Monday from 28 the previous day. France requested a UN Security Council meeting on the crisis for Tuesday afternoon in New York, Reuters reported, citing French diplomats.

Turkey’s Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan said reciprocal attacks in the Persian Gulf were undermining efforts to end the war and must stop immediately. Speaking in Baku, he called for freedom of passage through Hormuz and restoration of the situation before the war, saying Ankara was in contact with all parties.

Pakistan and the UN nuclear watchdog also backed a diplomatic route. Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar and IAEA chief Rafael Grossi agreed that implementing the Islamabad memorandum of understanding between Iran and the United States remained the best way to defuse tensions, Pakistan’s Foreign Ministry said. Grossi offered technical assistance if needed.

Saudi attacks and US war costs
The Saudi-led coalition said Houthi ballistic missiles and drones struck civilian targets in Khamis Mushait, Abha and Taif on Monday, injuring 13 people.

  • Xi’s BRICS peace call sparks debate in Iran over China’s role in war

    Xi’s BRICS peace call sparks debate in Iran over China’s role in war

Coalition spokesperson Major General Turki al-Malki said the injuries ranged from minor to moderate and that seven homes and two vehicles were damaged. He said the coalition would respond “responsibly and firmly” and take measures to deter further attacks.

Saudi Arabia’s Civil Defense issued new emergency alerts in Abha and Khamis Mushait on Tuesday before announcing shortly afterward that the danger had passed in both locations. Authorities did not disclose the nature of the threats.

Yemeni government aircraft, meanwhile, targeted Houthi weapons depots in Al-Jubah and below Mount Haylan in Marib province, Al Arabiya reported. Government forces also thwarted an attempted Houthi infiltration in Harib, south of Marib, according to the report.

The UN Security Council was scheduled to meet Tuesday afternoon in New York to discuss the deteriorating situation around the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. France requested the meeting, two French diplomats told Reuters.

A US Defense Department inspector general report showed the scale of the conflict’s cost to Washington. The report estimated that the war had cost the United States about $33.4 billion through June 29 and had produced shortages of strategic munitions and exposed bottlenecks in the US defense industrial base.

The total included $22.3 billion in expended munitions, $3.7 billion in equipment losses and $7.4 billion in cumulative obligations, excluding repairs to military infrastructure.

US Central Command said that Iranian strikes damaged or destroyed hundreds of buildings and structures at US bases in Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Oman and Jordan. Dozens of US aircraft were also damaged or destroyed during Operation Epic Fury, according to the report.

Seven US service members were killed in action and 417 were wounded between February 28 and June 30, while seven others died in non-hostile incidents.

IRGC officials mark 200 days of Khamenei’s rule
Inside Iran, senior IRGC officials expressed allegiance to Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei as he completed 200 days in power without appearing publicly.

IRGC Aerospace Force commander Majid Mousavi praised Khamenei’s leadership in a message marking the 200th consecutive night of government-backed street gatherings. He urged participants to preserve their “sacred unity” and continue supporting the government, political officials and armed forces by following Khamenei’s directives.

Abdollah Hajisadeghi, Khamenei’s representative to the IRGC, similarly described the nightly gatherings as support for the armed forces, a “steadfast pledge of allegiance” to Mojtaba Khamenei and a demand to “avenge” slain Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei.

The Basij also expanded its Janfada mobilization campaign, sending mass text messages announcing the start of military and first-aid courses for its “people’s units.” The campaign has said preparations are underway to train and organize 1,000 “national resistance” battalions.

Women face forced undressing, breast touching at Iran's Evin Prison

Sep 15, 2026, 13:39 GMT+1
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Women enter a detention facility under the supervision of a guard in Iran.

Female political prisoners at Iran's Evin Prison face increasingly invasive body searches involving forced undressing and breast touching, leading some to forgo medical treatment and visits, sources told Iran International.

“In some cases, prisoners have been forced to lift their shirts and the guards have also touched their breasts,” one source said.

Body searches have become routine in Evin's women's ward in recent months. Female guards search political prisoners before they leave for family visits, medical treatment or court appearances.

The searches take place in a cubicle recently designated for the purpose. Guards touch different parts of prisoners' bodies and sometimes order them to move or remove clothing, according to the account.

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The visitation area of the women’s ward at Evin Prison in Tehran - Photo by Maggie Parvaneh

Families and children searched

Relatives visiting prisoners are also facing more intrusive searches under tighter security measures that differ from previous procedures, another source told Iran International.

Guards force relatives to remove their shoes, inspect the inside of their mouths and touch different parts of their bodies. Children and teenagers visiting imprisoned family members are not exempt and are also touched during searches.

  • Female political prisoners demand accountability for sexual abuse

    Female political prisoners demand accountability for sexual abuse

Twenty-two female political and ideological prisoners at Evin demanded an investigation into what they called “sexual harassment” during body searches in a letter in October 2024.

Transgender prisoner Ghazal Marzban also wrote from Evin on August 21 that she was raped following her arrest in May 2023 at an Intelligence Ministry detention facility and threatened into silence.

  • Trans woman prisoner says she was raped in Iran Intelligence Ministry detention

    Trans woman prisoner says she was raped in Iran Intelligence Ministry detention

Sexual violence against detainees has been documented in Iranian prisons since the aftermath of the 1979 revolution, with former prisoners and rights groups describing its use as a means of torture and humiliation.

Searches deter treatment and visits

The increasingly invasive searches have led many women to forgo medical transfers or meetings with relatives and lawyers rather than undergo the procedures, the sources said.

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A women’s ward at Qarchak Prison in Iran.

Pressure over prisoners' clothing when leaving the ward has also increased. Women have in some cases been forced to wear slippers and handcuffs.

Iran's Prisons Organization regulations permit searches without clothing only when necessary and under specified conditions. They also require body searches to be conducted with electronic equipment wherever possible.

The sources questioned why scanning equipment was not being used, describing the current procedures as a means of harassment rather than necessary security measures.

More than 40 women imprisoned for financial offenses were recently transferred to Evin's women's ward, and restrictions increased following their arrival, another source told Iran International.

Prison authorities have justified some of the tighter rules by pointing to the presence of non-political prisoners. Women imprisoned for financial offenses now make up around half of those held in the ward.

  • Iran’s prisoners endure worsening conditions amid bitter winter cold

    Iran’s prisoners endure worsening conditions amid bitter winter cold

Iran International reported on July 12 that women protested the transfer over overcrowding and the failure to separate prisoners according to offense. Special prison guards entered the ward and beat several protesters with batons.

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A file photo of a women's prison in Iran.

Some political prisoners view the mixing of political and financial prisoners as a deliberate policy intended to weaken collective resistance to restrictions.

Evin's women's ward has become a center of political prisoner activism in recent years, with women staging protests and hunger strikes over executions and other political and social issues.