Pezeshkian inherited years of accumulated economic problems, many created or left unresolved by previous administrations, before war deepened those structural weaknesses.
Two recent assessments of his record suggest the result is something larger than the difficulties of one presidency: the ambitions of government itself are contracting from development toward survival.
“Pezeshkian thinks the nation should thank him only because there is no famine in Iran yet,” said Nasrallah Pejmanfar, an ultraconservative cleric and lawmaker from Shiraz.
Pejmanfar intended the remark as an attack. But it echoed a more substantive criticism offered by sociologist Hamzeh Nozari in the moderate daily Shargh: that merely preventing extreme deprivation is increasingly becoming a measure of government success.
From development to survival
Nozari focused on the government’s emphasis on protecting “people’s livelihood” through subsidies, electronic coupons and efforts to secure basic goods.
Such policies may prevent extreme poverty, he argued, but they also reveal how far the ambitions of government have narrowed.
“Providing a minimal living and securing a hand-to-mouth existence is the ruling paradigm of the government, while concepts like welfare, progress and development are sidelined,” Nozari wrote.
He contrasted the current approach with previous periods when Iranian governments, however successfully, pursued broader ambitions: economic expansion in the late 1980s, greater political openness in the 1990s and redistribution in the following decade.
The question, he argued, is whether this “livelihood paradigm” is a temporary response to war and economic emergency or a more permanent retreat from development.
The economics of scarcity
Economist Teymour Rahmani, writing in Donya-ye Eghtesad, approached the same crisis from a different direction.
For Rahmani, the central problem is inflation, driven above all by a severe fiscal imbalance as government revenues decline while large and inefficient expenditures continue.
He rejected the common explanation that the falling rial is itself responsible for accelerating inflation. Currency depreciation and rising prices, he argued, are symptoms of the same underlying fiscal problem.
“The fact that inflationary force manifests first through the exchange-rate channel and that exchange-rate increases precede inflation spikes does not mean currency depreciation is the root cause,” he wrote.
The consequences are increasingly visible across the country. Rahmani pointed to point-to-point inflation of 112.4 percent in the western province of Ilam, with other poorer provinces including Lorestan, Kurdistan and Hormozgan also experiencing triple-digit inflation.
He argued that Iran has entered an inflationary environment unlike any in its modern history, while crediting experienced civil servants and residual public confidence in the monetary system with helping prevent a slide into full hyperinflation.
“We must understand that inflation is the primary issue of the Iranian economy,” Rahmani wrote, warning that the underlying fiscal imbalance must be addressed.
Administering scarcity
The two analyses approach Pezeshkian’s predicament from different directions but arrive at closely related conclusions.
Nozari describes the consequence: a government whose conception of success increasingly revolves around maintaining minimum living standards. Rahmani describes the economic machinery pushing it there: fiscal imbalance, declining revenues and inflation severe enough to overwhelm household purchasing power.
Neither problem began with Pezeshkian. He inherited years of accumulated economic weakness, while war and sanctions have sharply worsened the conditions under which his government operates.
But two years into his presidency, the distinction between emergency measures and a longer-term transformation is becoming harder to make.
A government occupied with keeping food affordable, financing subsidies and preventing inflation from becoming still more destructive has increasingly little room to pursue the growth, welfare and development promised in its economic plans.