Iran International
Ending the Iran war could expose the Islamic Republic to one of its greatest vulnerabilities, experts say, as Tehran confronts a battered post-war economy that may strain its ability to finance the institutions underpinning its rule.
From a strictly economic perspective, former US Treasury official and sanctions strategist Miad Maleki says the greater danger to the regime may emerge once the fighting stops and it must govern a country burdened by soaring inflation, reconstruction costs and years of economic decline.
"If the conflict ends today, then you're going to see the economic effect of the war doing its work," Maleki told Eye for Iran.
"That would be very scary if I was an Iranian regime official, having to face the reality of a post-war economy."
Maleki argues Iran is already inside what he describes as a "tipping zone," where years of inflation, currency depreciation and economic mismanagement have steadily eroded purchasing power.
The question, he says, is no longer simply whether the government can continue paying salaries, but whether those salaries still buy enough to sustain loyalty.
"The salary might keep coming," he said. "You just won't be able to afford very basic needs."
The scale of that pressure is reflected in official consumer-price data.
In June, food and non-alcoholic beverage prices were nearly 134% higher than a year earlier, while prices for oils and fats rose about 278% and meat about 172%, according to data from the Statistical Center of Iran.
Those increases squeeze not only ordinary households, counterterrorism and security specialist Roger Macmillan argues, but also lower-ranking members of the Basij, IRGC conscripts and their families—people drawn from the same society on which the state relies to maintain internal security and suppress dissent.
"The real question isn't how much damage a bomb can do," he said. "It's what happens when the money stops moving."
Iran's financial center of gravity
Military pressure has dominated discussion of Iran for months, with much of the debate centered on missile stockpiles, drone production and how long it might take Tehran to rebuild its military capabilities.
Macmillan argues that focus overlooks something more fundamental.
"They are built to absorb military pressure," he said. "But are they able to absorb payroll pressure?"
His argument is not that economic pressure alone will weaken the regime. Rather, he says policymakers should focus on disrupting the broader financial ecosystem that allows the Islamic Republic to function, from government payrolls to military-linked economic networks.
"We need to be looking at the financial center of gravity, which is not just the payroll but also the military bonyads," he said.
Bonyads are powerful quasi-official foundations that expanded after the 1979 Islamic Revolution, with some of the largest developing extensive holdings in sectors including banking, construction, manufacturing, agriculture and energy.
Major foundations enjoy significant economic privileges and limited public oversight, and several are overseen by or closely connected to institutions under the Supreme Leader.
Some have also served as important patronage networks and maintained extensive economic links with Iran's political and security establishment.
For Macmillan, the question is not simply how much revenue those networks generate. It is whether they can continue supporting rank-and-file security forces if inflation keeps eroding wages while the government takes on the additional burden of rebuilding a post-war economy.
"What we need to look at is how we can remove the will, shatter the cohesion and the will of the foot soldiers from the Basij and from the IRGC, and separate them from the state," he said.
The argument represents a different way of thinking about pressure on Iran.
Rather than asking only how much military capability can be destroyed, Macmillan and Maleki argue policymakers should also consider how much financial strain the Islamic Republic can absorb before maintaining the institutions that enforce its rule becomes increasingly difficult.
Peace itself could reduce some war-related economic pressures, particularly if it improves trade conditions or is accompanied by sanctions relief. But Maleki argues it would also force Tehran to confront accumulated economic problems while meeting the costs of reconstruction.
For him, that may be precisely where the regime is most vulnerable.
"The most punishing thing they can do to this regime is send it back to govern Iran in a state of peace and face the reality they had to kill their way out of," Maleki said.
HRANA said 54 detainees were being held in Ardabil prison, near Iran's border with Azerbaijan. Of those, 25 have been sentenced to between six months and five years and three months in prison, while 29 remain in custody without having had a hearing in their cases.
Among those convicted, Ahmad Seifi received the longest sentence of five years and three months, while Milad Ashkani was sentenced to four years. Three others received sentences of three years and six months, according to HRANA.
Prosecutors seek harsher sentences
An informed source told HRANA that Ardabil prosecutor Jalal Afaghi considered the sentences handed to 10 of those convicted too lenient and had asked Iran's Supreme Court to increase their punishments.
HRANA said full details of the charges, proceedings and courts responsible for the sentences had not been made public.
Some of the detainees have also been denied telephone calls and family visits, while relatives have faced restrictions in seeking information about their cases or requesting temporary release, the rights group said.
Hundreds detained in northwestern province
Around 800 people were arrested in Ardabil province during the January protests, according to HRANA. The group said about 500 were released during the first 10 days and roughly another 250 were later freed after posting bail or other forms of security.
The cases form part of a much broader judicial crackdown following the protests. Rights groups have estimated that more than 60,000 people were detained across Iran, while some independent sources have put the number summoned, detained or interrogated at more than 100,000.
Iranian judiciary spokesman Asghar Jahangir said in February that authorities had issued more than 10,000 orders sending cases for prosecution and around 9,000 indictments against people detained during the unrest.
The report comes amid mounting international concern over prosecutions and executions connected to the protests.
UN human rights chief Volker Türk said this week that Iran had executed at least 56 people on national security-related charges since March 19, including 27 in protest-related cases. He urged Iranian authorities to halt executions and move towards abolishing the death penalty.
Unlike the corruption scandals that have long dominated headlines in Iran, the report by Jahan-e Sanat focuses on thefts measured not in billions of rials but in loaves of bread, packages of cheese and cuts of meat.
It argues that cases involving everyday groceries are increasingly reflecting economic distress rather than simple criminality.
"There are no billions of tomans, no gold, no luxury villas," the newspaper wrote. "Sometimes it is only a can of cheese, a loaf of bread or a few simple food items."
Days before Jahan-e Sanat published its report, CCTV footage from outside a minimarket at night in the northern city of Babolsar spread widely across Persian-language social media.
The footage appears to show a woman wearing a black chador approaching a display of boxed goods outside the shop. After pausing beside the display and glancing around, she appears to pick up one of the boxes before walking away.
Exactly what prompted the woman's actions remains unknown. But for many Iranians, the clip became less about one apparent shoplifting than about the growing struggle to afford everyday necessities.
"May God never let anyone feel ashamed in front of their family," one user wrote.
"This is what happens when prices keep rising. We live in a country rich in oil and gold, yet the government cannot provide for 87 million people," another commented.
"People simply cannot afford to buy things anymore because prices have become so expensive," another wrote.
Others pleaded with whoever shared the footage not to expose the woman's identity.
"Who would steal a few groceries unless driven by poverty and hunger? God help them," one commenter wrote.
"Maybe she had no money to buy food for her children. The shopkeeper should have protected her dignity instead of exposing her," another said.
Some comments contrasted the apparent theft with what they described as large-scale corruption, arguing authorities should focus on powerful figures accused of enriching themselves rather than people taking everyday necessities.
The sympathy expressed online echoed account gathered by Jahan-e Sanat from a supermarket employee who described an apparent increase in customers taking inexpensive food items.
Behind the supermarket shelves
Amirhossein, an employee at a large supermarket chain, told the newspaper he had witnessed several such incidents during the past 10 months.
He recalled seeing a woman place two tubs of cheese into her handbag during a busy period before leaving without paying. In another case, he said, security camera footage later showed a man leaving with butter, cakes and pastries concealed beneath his coat.
Staff also stopped a customer who had eaten packaged cakes inside the store and hidden the empty wrappers before trying to leave, according to the employee.
Perhaps most surprising, Amirhossein said, was a regular customer who was caught taking a package of meat.
"I think poverty is the main reason," he told Jahan-e Sanat. "You cannot judge everyone the same way, but when someone steals a simple item, they are probably under enormous pressure. Sometimes, if what was taken has little financial value, we don't pursue it because we think the person's circumstances may have brought them to this point."
'A crisis of livelihoods'
Sociologist Mostafa Abroshan said reports of thefts involving bread, dairy products and other essentials should be viewed in the context of Iran's prolonged economic difficulties.
"Thefts of basic goods, especially food and other necessities, reflect disruptions in economic structures and the declining ability of households to meet their basic needs," he told the newspaper.
"This does not justify theft, but it shows that people's behavior must be understood within its social context."
Abroshan said inflation, declining purchasing power and job insecurity had left many households struggling to afford essential goods.
"A society in which stealing bread, milk or rice becomes more common is facing a crisis of livelihoods and social justice more than a security crisis," he said.
Prolonged economic hardship, he warned, could also erode social trust, leaving retailers more suspicious of customers, increasing security costs and weakening confidence in public institutions.
While enforcing the law remains necessary, Abroshan said that reducing poverty, controlling inflation, creating jobs and strengthening social support would do more to curb petty theft than harsher punishment alone.
Without addressing the economic pressures facing low-income households, he said, the theft of everyday groceries risks becoming an increasingly visible measure of Iran's widening cost-of-living crisis.
