US backs Iraq pipeline plans to bypass Hormuz

The debate has intensified since Iran targeted a vessel near the Strait of Hormuz last week, prompting a renewed US military campaign that has included days of strikes on ports, bridges, airports and military facilities across Iran’s southern provinces.

Even as US Vice President JD Vance and Iranian Parliament Speaker and chief negotiator Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf have continued to defend diplomacy backed by military preparedness, the fighting has persisted and the prospect of a wider conflict has grown.

The criticism has been directed in part at ultrahardline figures such as Qom Seminary Chancellor Alireza Arafi, who has called for further war against the United States and an end to negotiations.

Two recent commentaries—one by former lawmaker and former National Security Committee chairman Heshmatollah Falahatpisheh, the other by political analyst Abdolrahman Fathollahi—reflect the growing push to hold hardliners accountable for the costs of confrontation.

While one focuses on political responsibility for failed diplomacy, the other highlights the burden borne by communities on Iran’s southern frontier.

‘Defeating diplomacy’

Writing in the moderate daily Toseh Irani, Falahatpisheh accused hardline factions of using what he called a distorted interpretation of religion to obstruct diplomatic opportunities.

“I believe part of these two major wars against Iran was the result of this very definition of religious beliefs by extremists, who are now turning to distorting religion to defeat diplomacy,” he wrote.

He argued that the same factions had repeatedly promised better outcomes while blocking agreements that could have reduced tensions.

“They are the exact same people who blocked two good agreements during the major periods of 2021 and 2022, claiming they would forge a better deal,” he wrote. “But in practice, not only was no agreement achieved, but two major wars were imposed on Iran.”

Falahatpisheh called for the prosecution of those he said had turned diplomatic opportunities into military conflict.

‘Patriotism from a safe distance’

A second commentary, published Thursday in Shargh, shifted the focus from political responsibility to the human cost of confrontation.

Under the title The Country’s Future and the Triangle of Extremism, Costs, and Responsibility, Fathollahi warned about the toll of intensifying US airstrikes on Iran’s southern coastal provinces.

He pointed to public campaigns calling for outspoken opponents of negotiations to be sent to the front lines, accusing them of practising what he described as “patriotism from a safe distance.”

“One certainly cannot beat the drums of war from the safe margins of the capital behind podiums, while dumping the costs of those decisions onto the people living in the front lines,” Fathollahi wrote, highlighting the plight of communities bearing the brunt of the fighting over the Strait of Hormuz.

The comments come after a week of US strikes on infrastructure across Iran’s Persian Gulf provinces, where dozens have been killed or injured and many more affected by transport disruption, electricity blackouts and water shortages during the height of summer.

For Fathollahi, the question is no longer simply one of military strategy but whether Iran’s leaders are willing to change course before the costs grow even higher.

“Rethinking certain political approaches and utilizing all expert and diplomatic capacities is not a choice,” he concluded, “but a necessity to safeguard national interests and reduce the costs imposed on society.”

The previous record was 1,900,000 rials, registered on May 4. Other foreign currencies also rose. The British pound reached 2,576,500 rials, while the euro climbed above 2,190,000 rials.#

At Friday’s open-market rate, Iran’s official monthly minimum wage of 166,255,500 rials is worth about $87.

The new low follows a sharp deterioration in Iran’s economic outlook. The International Monetary Fund expects the economy to contract by 6.1% in 2026, after previously forecasting modest growth.

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  Iran faces region’s harshest mix of wartime contraction and inflation

Average inflation is projected to reach 68.9%, leaving households with fewer opportunities to earn money while the value of their income falls rapidly.

The IMF linked the downturn to damage to energy and transport infrastructure, lower production and exports, and disruption around the Strait of Hormuz.

The rial’s decline increases the cost of imported goods, raw materials and medicine, while feeding broader price rises in an economy already struggling with sanctions, war damage and years of economic mismanagement.

Iran operates several official and semi-official exchange rates, but the open-market rate is the price most closely watched by households and businesses seeking foreign currency.

The IRGC was designated alongside the Iran-linked Islamic Movement of Companions of the Right and Russia’s GRU Volunteer Corps, the first organizations placed under powers created by the National Security (State Threats) Act 2026.

The designations took effect on July 17 after Parliament approved an order submitted by Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood four days earlier.

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  UK says support for Iran's IRGC outlawed under new state threats law

Under the new law, it is now a criminal offence to express support for the groups, including by glorifying or encouraging activity that threatens the safety of the United Kingdom.

Providing assistance or accepting money or another material benefit from a designated organization can also lead to prosecution. Those convicted could face prison sentences of up to 14 years.

People who commit sabotage, arson or other hostile acts on behalf of the groups could be charged separately under the National Security Act 2023 and face life imprisonment.

The designation is distinct from banning an organization under Britain’s terrorism legislation. It is designed specifically to address hostile activity linked to foreign governments, including espionage, political interference, intimidation, sabotage and physical attacks.

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  Wave of Iran plots drove UK action against IRGC, terror law tsar says

The government says the new framework will make it easier to prosecute people working for foreign organizations because prosecutors will not always have to establish a direct connection between an individual act and a foreign government.

Outgoing Prime Minister Keir Starmer said when the measures were announced that Britain would not be allowed to become “a playground for states who want to spread fear, division and violence on our streets.”

“We have already taken tough action against the Iranian regime and those linked to it, and against Russian operatives and networks targeting our country,” he said. “These new powers will make it easier to prosecute and lock up anyone carrying out their dirty work here in Britain.”

The IRGC is one of the Islamic Republic’s most powerful military and political institutions. Its overseas Quds Force oversees Tehran’s relationships with allied armed groups and has been accused by British authorities of directing operations against dissidents, journalists and Jewish or Israeli-linked targets in Europe.

The British government said the Islamic Movement of Companions of the Right had claimed responsibility for seven attacks this year against Persian-language media and locations linked to Jewish and Israeli communities in Britain.

Those incidents included an antisemitic arson attack that damaged four ambulances belonging to the Jewish emergency service Hatzola in Golders Green, north London, on March 23.

British authorities said Quds Force members were behind the organization and had “almost certainly” directed its attacks across Europe. The allegations have not been tested in court.

The government has also cited at least 20 potentially lethal Iranian-backed plots identified by the domestic intelligence agency MI5 over a one-year period.

“Iran and Russia are using proxies and thugs to do their dirty work on our shores,” Mahmood said when she announced the intended designations. “We will find you, and we will lock you up.”

The third designated organization, the GRU Volunteer Corps, is described by Britain as a network controlled by Russian military intelligence that recruits people online to carry out arson, sabotage, harassment and other hostile activity.

Foreign Secretary Yvette Cooper said the use of proxies by Iran and Russia to conduct operations on British soil was “reprehensible.”

The designation marks a significant escalation in Britain’s response to the IRGC. Rather than banning the organization as a terrorist group, the government has created a separate route to prosecute support, recruitment, financing and operational assistance linked to hostile foreign-state activity.

The developments unfolded along three parallel fronts: Iranian attacks on US facilities across the Persian Gulf, continued US strikes inside Iran and an intensifying contest over control of the Strait of Hormuz.

Iran said it launched drone attacks on US facilities in Kuwait and Bahrain early Friday, after a sixth consecutive night of American strikes on Iranian military targets.

Iran’s army said it targeted US force deployment and logistics centers in Kuwait, Iran’s IRGC-affiliated Fars news agency reported.

In Bahrain, the army said it struck US helicopters and reconnaissance aircraft at Sakhir Air Base. Sirens sounded in the country for the second time on Friday, according to the Interior Ministry.

In Qatar, several booms were heard after the government sent a second security alert to mobile phones, Reuters reported. The Defense Ministry said Qatar was intercepting several air attacks, while the Interior Ministry said a child was injured by shrapnel from an intercepted missile.

US Central Command has not confirmed the reported attacks in Kuwait or Bahrain.

At the same time, US forces continued striking targets in southern Iran.

CENTCOM said US fighter jets, drones and warships used precision munitions to hit dozens of military targets, including coastal surveillance and air defense sites, logistics infrastructure and maritime capabilities near Bandar Abbas and on Qeshm Island.

Hamshahri, a newspaper owned by Tehran Municipality, reported that five bridges in Hormozgan province were hit in the latest wave of attacks.

The death toll from strikes on bridges in Bandar Khamir rose to seven, Iran’s IRGC-affiliated Tasnim news agency reported. Iranian media also reported damage to a power substation on Kish Island and attacks on transport infrastructure in Bandar Abbas and Bandar Khamir.

The reports could not be independently verified.

Control over Strait of Hormuz

As the two sides exchanged attacks on land, their confrontation also deepened at sea.

CENTCOM said US forces redirected three commercial vessels attempting to breach the naval blockade against Iran, disabled another that failed to comply with orders and boarded the M/T Wen Yao in the Gulf of Oman to verify compliance.

US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth shared an image from the boarding and wrote that Iran “does not control” the Strait of Hormuz.

CENTCOM said the strait and surrounding waters remained free and open, except for vessels attempting to violate what it called the US “steel wall” blockade.

Iran’s Revolutionary Guards, however, said Tehran remained in full control of the waterway and would prevent oil and gas exports through it for as long as US attacks continued.

Trump cast the military and maritime operations as signs of US momentum.

“You will see the fruits of that labor very, very shortly,” he said after declaring that Washington was “winning big in Iran.”

The possibility of a wider regional conflict emerged more clearly on Friday, when the Revolutionary Guards said they had struck a US special operations command center in Syria’s al-Tanf region, destroying a radar system and several helicopters and killing US personnel.

US Central Command has not confirmed the report.

Watching explosions on television and social media from hundreds of kilometers away, many see the confrontation with the United States as another familiar cycle of pressure that may yet give way to negotiations.

Fatemeh Rajabi, the news anchor who first reported the U.S. strikes on ports and military sites in southern Iran on the YouTube program Hasht-e Shab, says many in the capital find it difficult to grasp that a war is unfolding along the northern shores of the Persian Gulf — the region they casually refer to as “down under.”

Reporter Ali Pakzad, who visited the area during the strikes, says missiles hit targets from Abadan near the Iraqi border to Chabahar and Saravan near Pakistan.

He described damaged fishing vessels, battered ports and communities whose livelihoods have been shattered by attacks documented in the program’s footage.

That contrast lies at the heart of an investigative report by journalist Mira Ghorbanifar in Toseh Irani, titled The South in the Fire of War and Ashes of Ceasefire.

Ghorbanifar writes that explosions now puncture the dawn along Iran’s southern coast. Smoke rises from damaged docks, charred dhows lie abandoned, and fish markets once full of noise now speak only of “a war for which no one has yet chosen a definite name.”

While officials speak of “understandings,” “ceasefires” and “crisis management,” she argues, people in Iran’s south are grappling with damaged infrastructure and disrupted shipping, trying to adapt to what increasingly resembles a war of attrition.

She also asks whether the so-called Islamabad Understanding still exists. Is the fighting along Iran’s southern coast part of the same hundred-day conflict, or the start of a new phase of controlled escalation? And can both sides return to negotiations before crossing a point of no return?

The concerns extend well beyond independent journalists.

Government-aligned newspapers have increasingly questioned whether Iran can sustain a prolonged confrontation while struggling to protect civilians and critical infrastructure.

Moderate daily Sharq describes the country’s predicament as “structural and accumulated,” arguing that damaged infrastructure, naval disruption and collapsing logistics have left even minor shocks capable of triggering major crises.

Centrist Etemad warns that public trust has eroded while the state remains unprepared for cascading emergencies.

Economic newspapers have echoed those warnings.

Jahan Sanat argues that Iran’s deterrence is steadily weakening under sustained pressure, while Donya-ye Eghtesad says military decisions are increasingly driven by political necessity rather than strategic advantage, leaving the country more vulnerable in a prolonged conflict.

Washington-based analysts Mohammad Ghaedi and Farzin Nadimi have voiced similar concerns in interviews with Persian-language media abroad.

Ghaedi argues that Iran’s governing system “has repeatedly refused to learn from past mistakes,” pointing to what he sees as a widening disconnect between insulated decision-makers and citizens bearing the costs of conflict.

Nadimi says Iran is confronting the United States at “a moment of maximum structural fragility,” with deterrence eroding and escalation driven more by political necessity than strategic advantage.

“Iran is not in a position to manage a prolonged conflict,” he warns, adding that every new attack “burns away another part of Iran’s deterrent capability.”

Even hardline media have shown hints of concern. Resalat recently urged Iran to “rebuild its defensive capacity” after recent military losses — a rare acknowledgement from a conservative newspaper that the country’s deterrence has been weakened.

For now, the divide remains striking. In Tehran, politicians and commentators continue to debate negotiations, ceasefires and diplomatic understandings.

Along the southern coast, many residents have already stopped asking what to call the conflict. They are simply living through it.