Iranian officials have threatened severe retaliation, while analysts warn that disputes over sanctions, maritime routes and the future of the agreement could push both sides into another major confrontation.
Mohsen Jalilvand, a professor of international relations, said the continued US military presence in the region and Tehran's insistence on controlling shipping through the Strait of Hormuz have significantly increased the risk of war.
"When both sides continue to stand by their positions, and there are no signs of retreat, it is only natural that the likelihood of a broader confrontation increases," he told the news website Fararu.
"Overall, I see the outlook moving less toward an agreement and more toward escalating tensions and a greater possibility of a major conflict."
‘Abandon MoU’
Senior officials and hardline media reacted angrily after the latest US attacks, which the Iranian Health Ministry said killed 14 people and injured 78 others. Several senior figures demanded tougher retaliation or called for formally abandoning the memorandum with Washington.
Parliament Speaker and Iran's chief negotiator Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf wrote on X that "America still has not learned that bullying and breaking its commitments no longer come without a cost."
"Let me be clear: if you strike, you will be struck. Stop struggling in vain—you will only sink deeper. The Strait of Hormuz will be reopened only under Iranian arrangements, not American threats."
Alaeddin Boroujerdi, a member of parliament's National Security and Foreign Policy Committee, told state broadcaster IRIB that Iran's response would be "more severe" and warned that continued confrontation would ultimately harm the United States.
The hardline Kayhan newspaper argued that repeated US attacks, the revocation of Iran's oil export waiver and what it described as violations of the agreed shipping arrangements in Hormuz had rendered the agreement meaningless.
"When Iran's armed forces tighten their grip on the world's energy artery in the Strait of Hormuz and play the Bab al-Mandab card, the West's economic lifeline will be cut, and Trump will beg for a ceasefire more desperately than ever," the newspaper wrote.
Kayhan urged the Foreign Ministry to formally declare the memorandum void so the armed forces could "settle Trump's account once and for all."
Tensions with Oman
The latest escalation followed Iranian attacks on vessels using a route south of the Strait of Hormuz, on the Omani side, while under US naval escort rather than the shipping corridor designated by Tehran.
Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi accused Washington of pressuring Oman to open an alternative southern shipping lane despite what he said was an agreement that Iran would regulate maritime traffic during the memorandum's 60-day implementation period.
"From our perspective, America's insistence on creating a parallel route disrupted implementation of the memorandum," Gharibabadi said. “The Revolutionary Guards' response was entirely lawful and legitimate."
Iran's Khatam al-Anbiya Central Headquarters warned that any party providing military support for US attacks on Iran would constitute a legitimate target.
“The only safe shipping route through the Strait of Hormuz is the one designated by the Islamic Republic," the statement said.
Oman, however, told the International Maritime Organization on Thursday that it opposed the imposition of transit charges on ships using the strait and reiterated that "the right of transit passage through straits used for international navigation is guaranteed under international law."
Gharibabadi said Iranian officials had informed Omani and Qatari authorities—and indirectly Washington—that the southern route was "completely illegal," violated Clause 5 of the memorandum and "must be closed."
Public exhaustion
Although Tehran and most major Iranian cities have not been targeted since the ceasefire, apart from areas along the southern coastline, the renewed fighting has had an immediate economic impact.
The Iranian rial weakened sharply on Thursday, with the US dollar rising from about 1.6 million rials to more than 1.8 million rials. According to the Central Bank of Iran's latest figures, point-to-point inflation has reached nearly 83 percent.
Despite growing fears of renewed conflict, many Iranians appear more subdued than during previous crises after experiencing two wars within a year. Online discussions suggest widespread exhaustion and emotional numbness rather than panic.
"Is it just my algorithm, or does nobody actually care that the war has started again?" one X user wrote.
Another user, Sina, wrote: "Do we really have to hear fighter jets and explosions over Tehran before we believe the war has resumed?"
A third user commented: "Iranian cities were bombed last night. That means we're officially at war. But our minds are so exhausted, and we've suffered so much, that we're collectively choosing denial."
A reader commenting on Khabar Online wrote: "I just came to say we're exhausted. By God, we're exhausted. How much more tension and pressure can we take? Are you really going to bring another war down on our heads?”
