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ANALYSIS

A remote bridge shows how US-Iran war is expanding

Umud Shokri
Umud Shokri

Senior visiting fellow, George Mason University

Jul 10, 2026, 01:28 GMT+1
An image related by Iranian media purportedly showing the damage to the Aq Takeh Khan bridge in northeastern Iran, July 9, 2026
An image related by Iranian media purportedly showing the damage to the Aq Takeh Khan bridge in northeastern Iran, July 9, 2026

A reported US strike on a railway bridge in northern Iran has drawn attention to a lesser-known front in the widening conflict: the battle over the transport corridors linking Iran to Central Asia, Russia and China.

Iranian state media and the IRGC said cruise missiles attributed to US forces struck the Aq Tekeh Khan railway bridge near Aqqala in Golestan province early Wednesday, damaging the Gorgan–Incheh Borun railway line.

Washington has not confirmed the strike, and the claim has not been independently verified.

The bridge is part of Iran’s northern rail connectivity with Turkmenistan and wider Central Asian networks, making it relevant to military logistics, civilian trade, sanctions resilience and alternative transit routes.

Its targeting, if confirmed, would suggest that transport nodes are becoming strategic assets in the widening conflict, where pressure on dual-use infrastructure can disrupt connectivity without focusing only on conventional military sites.

Why the bridge matters

The Aq Tekeh Khan Bridge lies on the Gorgan–Incheh Borun railway, a key segment linking Iran’s interior to its northeastern border with Turkmenistan.

Incheh Borun serves as an important rail crossing and dry port in Golestan province, connecting southward into Iran’s national railway network and northward into the Kazakhstan–Turkmenistan–Iran corridor inaugurated in 2014.

The corridor, stretching from Kazakhstan through Turkmenistan into Iran, provides an overland connection between Iran and Central Asia, with links to Russia, China and wider Eurasian markets.

It also complements the International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC) and overlaps with China’s Belt and Road Initiative ambitions by offering alternatives to vulnerable maritime routes.

For Iran, this northern railway artery is strategically valuable because it expands access to resource-rich Central Asian states and supports transit flows less exposed to Gulf chokepoints.

Freight trains from China have also moved along related corridors, underscoring the route’s place in broader East-West Eurasian trade.

Battle of transport networks

If confirmed, targeting railway infrastructure would suggest a broadening of strike objectives beyond traditional military facilities.

Railway bridges such as Aq Tekeh Khan are dual-use assets: they support civilian commerce, military mobility, sanctions-evading trade and rapid wartime logistics.

In modern conflicts, from Ukraine to the Middle East, infrastructure warfare has become increasingly central. Railways, ports, pipelines, bridges and power grids serve as chokepoints where military pressure and economic disruption intersect.

A damaged bridge can force rerouting, increase transport costs, delay supply chains and create bottlenecks whose effects exceed the physical scale of the strike itself.

For Iran, already facing pressure on southern ports, energy infrastructure and Gulf-facing trade routes, disruption to northern rail connectivity would test the resilience of its overland alternatives.

Targeting sanctions lifelines?

Damage to the Aq Tekeh Khan Bridge and associated rail services could limit Iran’s ability to move goods, fuel, equipment and strategic materials along its northern corridor.

Iranian authorities said the damage was repaired within a day and rail traffic had resumed, a claim that could not be independently verified. Even if temporary, the disruption highlights the importance of repair speed and infrastructure resilience in a conflict increasingly focused on transport networks.

Northern rail connectivity becomes especially important when southern ports or the Strait of Hormuz face military or political pressure. In such conditions, Iran’s ability to maintain alternative land routes through Central Asia, the Caspian region and Russia becomes part of its wider strategic depth.

Iran has spent years developing land corridors with Central Asia, Russia, China and the Caspian region to reduce dependence on maritime routes exposed to sanctions, surveillance and possible interdiction.

The Kazakhstan–Turkmenistan–Iran railway and INSTC-linked routes are central to that strategy, enabling transit revenues, regional trade and access to markets where sanctions enforcement may be less direct.

Strikes on such infrastructure could therefore be intended to erode Iran’s sanctions resilience by raising operational risks for partners and discouraging use of Iranian corridors during periods of conflict.

Regional consequences

The reported strike also carries potential implications for Turkmenistan, Kazakhstan and other Central Asian states.

These countries have invested in diversified transit routes through Iran to reach Gulf ports and global markets while reducing dependence on Russian or Chinese-controlled corridors.

If Iranian routes are viewed as vulnerable during conflict, governments and commercial operators may reassess their reliability.

For China, disruption to Iranian-linked corridors adds uncertainty to longer supply chains connecting East Asia, Central Asia and the Middle East.

For Russia, which has deepened logistical ties with Tehran, damage to Iranian transport infrastructure could complicate southern access routes.

The reported strike highlights how infrastructure has become part of modern strategic competition.

For Iran, the incident reinforces the challenge of protecting trade networks built to withstand sanctions and pressure on maritime access. It also shows that corridor politics, from the BRI to the INSTC, are increasingly shaped not only by commerce but by military risks.

Whether this leads to hardened infrastructure, shifts in regional trade planning or renewed pressure for de-escalation remains uncertain, but the bridge’s symbolic and practical importance now extends well beyond Golestan province.

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Ali Khamenei buried in Mashhad after days-long funeral

Jul 9, 2026, 23:41 GMT+1
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A picture of Ali Khamenei in the Iraqi city of Najaf where a funeral was held for him ahead of his burial in

Iran’s slain supreme leader, Ali Khamenei, was buried Thursday evening at the shrine of the eighth Shia imam in the northeastern city of Mashhad after days of funeral processions in Iran and Iraq, while his successor, Mojtaba Khamenei, remained absent from all public ceremonies.

Before the burial, Khamenei’s eldest son, Mostafa, led prayers over his father’s body.

Islamic Republic loyalists filled the streets and courtyards around the shrine as Khamenei’s coffin was brought through Mashhad, his hometown, at the end of a week of funeral ceremonies.

Mourners dressed in black waved Iranian flags, carried portraits of Khamenei and held placards with revolutionary slogans. Some in the crowd chanted against the United States and called for revenge on US President Donald Trump.

Videos from Khamenei’s final state-organized funeral in Mashhad on Thursday night showed loyalists of the Islamic Republic chanting “death to America” and “death to Israel” and demanding revenge for the slain supreme leader’s killing.

Iranian state media also reported plans for a symbolic public execution and burning of a Trump-like effigy in Mashhad’s Ahmadabad Square, with footage showing the effigy mounted on a truck

The burial came as renewed hostilities between Iran and the United States deepened uncertainty in the country, with Tehran presenting the funeral turnout as a show of public support and revolutionary resolve.

Khamenei’s remains, along with those of four family members killed with him, had earlier been taken through Tehran, Qom and the Iraqi shrine cities of Najaf and Karbala.

The burial marks the end of Khamenei’s 37-year rule, a period his supporters portray as one of resistance against foreign pressure, while critics point to years of repression, economic hardship and repeated waves of anti-government protests with the latest resulting in tens of thousands of protestors killed by state security forces during January’s nationwide uprising.

US strikes, Hormuz clashes push Iran deal to brink

Jul 9, 2026, 21:43 GMT+1
•
Maryam Sinaiee
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A US fighter jet on board a US warship in this CENTCOM handout

The fragile memorandum between Tehran and Washington is facing its biggest test yet after two days of US strikes on targets along Iran’s southern coast and Iranian attacks on commercial shipping near the Strait of Hormuz raised fears of a return to full-scale war.

Iranian officials have threatened severe retaliation, while analysts warn that disputes over sanctions, maritime routes and the future of the agreement could push both sides into another major confrontation.

Mohsen Jalilvand, a professor of international relations, said the continued US military presence in the region and Tehran's insistence on controlling shipping through the Strait of Hormuz have significantly increased the risk of war.

"When both sides continue to stand by their positions, and there are no signs of retreat, it is only natural that the likelihood of a broader confrontation increases," he told the news website Fararu.

"Overall, I see the outlook moving less toward an agreement and more toward escalating tensions and a greater possibility of a major conflict."

‘Abandon MoU’

Senior officials and hardline media reacted angrily after the latest US attacks, which the Iranian Health Ministry said killed 14 people and injured 78 others. Several senior figures demanded tougher retaliation or called for formally abandoning the memorandum with Washington.

Parliament Speaker and Iran's chief negotiator Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf wrote on X that "America still has not learned that bullying and breaking its commitments no longer come without a cost."

"Let me be clear: if you strike, you will be struck. Stop struggling in vain—you will only sink deeper. The Strait of Hormuz will be reopened only under Iranian arrangements, not American threats."

Alaeddin Boroujerdi, a member of parliament's National Security and Foreign Policy Committee, told state broadcaster IRIB that Iran's response would be "more severe" and warned that continued confrontation would ultimately harm the United States.

The hardline Kayhan newspaper argued that repeated US attacks, the revocation of Iran's oil export waiver and what it described as violations of the agreed shipping arrangements in Hormuz had rendered the agreement meaningless.

"When Iran's armed forces tighten their grip on the world's energy artery in the Strait of Hormuz and play the Bab al-Mandab card, the West's economic lifeline will be cut, and Trump will beg for a ceasefire more desperately than ever," the newspaper wrote.

Kayhan urged the Foreign Ministry to formally declare the memorandum void so the armed forces could "settle Trump's account once and for all."

Tensions with Oman

The latest escalation followed Iranian attacks on vessels using a route south of the Strait of Hormuz, on the Omani side, while under US naval escort rather than the shipping corridor designated by Tehran.

Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi accused Washington of pressuring Oman to open an alternative southern shipping lane despite what he said was an agreement that Iran would regulate maritime traffic during the memorandum's 60-day implementation period.

"From our perspective, America's insistence on creating a parallel route disrupted implementation of the memorandum," Gharibabadi said. “The Revolutionary Guards' response was entirely lawful and legitimate."

Iran's Khatam al-Anbiya Central Headquarters warned that any party providing military support for US attacks on Iran would constitute a legitimate target.

“The only safe shipping route through the Strait of Hormuz is the one designated by the Islamic Republic," the statement said.

Oman, however, told the International Maritime Organization on Thursday that it opposed the imposition of transit charges on ships using the strait and reiterated that "the right of transit passage through straits used for international navigation is guaranteed under international law."

Gharibabadi said Iranian officials had informed Omani and Qatari authorities—and indirectly Washington—that the southern route was "completely illegal," violated Clause 5 of the memorandum and "must be closed."

Public exhaustion

Although Tehran and most major Iranian cities have not been targeted since the ceasefire, apart from areas along the southern coastline, the renewed fighting has had an immediate economic impact.

The Iranian rial weakened sharply on Thursday, with the US dollar rising from about 1.6 million rials to more than 1.8 million rials. According to the Central Bank of Iran's latest figures, point-to-point inflation has reached nearly 83 percent.

Despite growing fears of renewed conflict, many Iranians appear more subdued than during previous crises after experiencing two wars within a year. Online discussions suggest widespread exhaustion and emotional numbness rather than panic.

"Is it just my algorithm, or does nobody actually care that the war has started again?" one X user wrote.

Another user, Sina, wrote: "Do we really have to hear fighter jets and explosions over Tehran before we believe the war has resumed?"

A third user commented: "Iranian cities were bombed last night. That means we're officially at war. But our minds are so exhausted, and we've suffered so much, that we're collectively choosing denial."

A reader commenting on Khabar Online wrote: "I just came to say we're exhausted. By God, we're exhausted. How much more tension and pressure can we take? Are you really going to bring another war down on our heads?”

Iran uses Khamenei funeral in Iraq to claim regional reach

Jul 9, 2026, 11:28 GMT+1
•
Maryam Sinaiee
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Clerics wait for the arrival of the coffin of Iran's late Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei at the Imam Ali Shrine in Najaf, Iraq, July 8, 2026.

The Islamic Republic sought to turn Ali Khamenei’s funeral ceremonies in Iraq into a regional show of loyalty, using processions in Najaf and Karbala to suggest that his authority reached beyond Iran even as Tehran’s allied network faces growing pressure.

After funeral processions in Tehran and Qom, the coffins of Khamenei and several members of his family, who were killed in the February 28 US-Israeli attack, were taken on Tuesday to Najaf, home to the shrine of Imam Ali, one of the holiest sites in Shiite Islam.

They were transferred on Wednesday to Karbala, home to the shrine of Imam Hussein. Both cities carry deep religious symbolism for Shiites, especially in narratives of martyrdom, sacrifice and political defiance.

Political analyst Iman Aghayari told Iran International that the Islamic Republic was using the ceremonies to present Khamenei’s influence as extending beyond Iran’s borders.

He said Tehran also wanted to signal to Western governments that its influence in countries hosting allied armed groups “is not confined to those proxy forces, but is rooted among the people of those countries as well.”

A funeral staged across Shiite centers

A number of current and former Iraqi officials, including Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi, along with Shiite and Sunni political, military and religious figures, welcomed the funeral delegation at Najaf airport.

The delegation was led by Khamenei’s eldest son, Mostafa Khamenei, and accompanied by President Masoud Pezeshkian, who cut short his visit and returned to Tehran early Wednesday following renewed US military strikes.

The Iraqi government declared Wednesday a public holiday to facilitate attendance and organized transportation for mourners traveling to Najaf and Karbala.

Iranian state media, citing Iraqi officials and the Popular Mobilization Forces, said more than two million people attended the ceremony in Najaf, while participation in Karbala was reported to be more than double that number.

The figures could not be independently verified.

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People attend a funeral procession for Iran's slain Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei during a funeral procession in Karbala, Iraq, July 9, 2026.

A claimed display of strength

Supporters of the Islamic Republic portrayed the ceremonies as proof of regional solidarity behind the so-called Axis of Resistance, Tehran’s network of allied governments, militias and political movements across the Middle East.

Esmail Qaani, commander of the IRGC’s Quds Force, said the funeral procession in Iraq would “make the red line of vengeance more prominent” and “further strengthen the united resolve of the Iraqi and Iranian peoples against American conspiracies.”

Defa Press, a news agency affiliated with Iran’s armed forces, described the ceremonies as “a transnational display of the Axis of Resistance’s power and confidence,” saying they showed political unity between Iran and Iraq.

Writing for the IRGC-affiliated Fars News Agency, political commentator Aghil Emami argued that the funeral proved the two nations’ loyalty to “shared ideals and the transnational leadership of the Islamic Revolution.”

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People attend a funeral procession for Iran's late Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei at the Imam Ali Shrine in Najaf, Iraq, July 8, 2026.

Religious symbolism and political messaging

Holding funeral ceremonies in Iraq – home to one of the world’s largest Shiite populations after Iran – carried both religious and political value for the Islamic Republic.

Iranian state media and some Iraqi Shiite politicians and outlets framed the processions through the language of Imam Hussein’s martyrdom, presenting Shiites as a unified political community confronting what they called “American arrogance” across the region.

For Tehran, the symbolism was especially important after Khamenei’s death and amid uncertainty over the future of its regional network.

The ceremonies allowed Iranian officials and supporters to link Khamenei’s legacy to the shrines of Najaf and Karbala, while also trying to reinforce the religious legitimacy of the Islamic Republic and of his successor.

The hardline X account Rah-e Deylami argued that Iraq, once Iran’s wartime enemy in the 1980s, had become “one of the pillars of the Axis of Resistance thanks to the blood of the martyred leader” and his policies.

It also pointed to mourners carrying photographs of Mojtaba Khamenei, saying the funeral had become “a ceremony of allegiance to his worthy successor” and that “Khamenei’s Iraqi followers have come to declare that they will continue this path.”

Such claims are difficult to measure against actual public sentiment in Iraq, where attitudes toward Iran and Iran-backed groups have long been mixed and politically contested.

Hamas gives up Gaza government, but not Iran ties

Jul 8, 2026, 16:05 GMT+1
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Negar Mojtahedi
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A senior Hamas official meets Iran's parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf on the sidelines of the funeral ceremonies for slain supreme leader Ali Khamenei, July 4, 2026

Hamas says it is stepping away from governing Gaza. But is it actually giving up power or turning away from its longtime backers in Tehran?

The group’s announcement that it is dissolving the governing body that administered Gaza for nearly two decades has been presented as a significant political concession under a US-backed roadmap for the enclave’s future.

But analysts who spoke to Iran International say the move is largely cosmetic, leaving Hamas’s military structure intact and doing little to alter its long-standing relationship with Iran.

Rather than abandoning Hamas, Iran has simply shifted its priorities, they argue, placing Hezbollah and Lebanon ahead of Gaza while quietly maintaining ties with the group.

"It's not even symbolic, it's a lie," said Beni Sabti, an Iran researcher at the Institute for National Security Studies (INSS). "The real thing is not even the disarmament. The ideology is still there."

The announcement dissolves Hamas’s civilian governing body, but leaves unanswered whether the group is willing to surrender its weapons and relinquish control over Gaza’s security apparatus.

For Sabti, that omission is the entire story.

"Iran is acting behind the curtains, also for Hamas," he said.

Recent developments suggest the relationship remains active despite Tehran’s muted public rhetoric.

Before the Iran-US memorandum was signed, a Hamas military spokesman said Iranian officials had pledged to help secure a ceasefire in Gaza.

Hamas representatives also traveled to Tehran for Ali Khamenei’s funeral, where they met senior Iranian officials, including Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf.

To Sabti, those contacts suggest Tehran has not changed its long-term strategy. Instead, it has temporarily reordered its priorities.

"Hezbollah is the most important," he said, arguing Iran has historically never abandoned its proxy groups.

The timing of Hamas’s announcement also reflects mounting pressure on the group.

It comes amid a US-backed political process for Gaza’s future, sustained pressure from Egypt and Qatar, renewed political competition from Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas and growing anti-Hamas protests inside Gaza itself.

Dalia Ziada, a Middle East analyst with ISGAP, argues Hamas’s announcement was designed to respond to those pressures without making the one concession demanded by Israel and much of the international community.

"They were forced to say something, not to do something," she said.

According to Ziada, Hamas has not agreed to disarm, dismantle its military wing or remove the network of loyalists embedded throughout Gaza’s civilian institutions.

"The international community is dealing with Hamas as a political entity," she said. "But no. This is a terrorist militia."

Ziada believes Tehran’s current restraint reflects pragmatism rather than a strategic break.

"Hamas is not profitable anymore," she said, arguing the group has become more of a liability than an asset following Israel’s campaign against its leadership. "If Hamas survives this situation... of course Iran will snap back."

Former Israeli intelligence official Avi Melamed agrees Hamas’s announcement should not be mistaken for a genuine transfer of power.

"I don't think that anyone really takes it seriously," he said.

Melamed argues Iran views Hamas primarily as a strategic instrument rather than an ideological partner.

"The relationship has been always clear. Hamas is a useful servant for the Iranian regime."

For Tehran, he says, Hezbollah remains the crown jewel of its regional network, while Hamas occupies a lower place in what he describes as the "food chain."

"Hamas and Islamic Jihad know their place in the food chain," Melamed said.

That hierarchy helps explain why Lebanon featured prominently in the Iran-US memorandum while Gaza did not.

The announcement may ease diplomatic pressure and create space for negotiations over Gaza’s future. But without disarmament, analysts argue, it changes little about the balance of power on the ground.

Hamas may be stepping away from civilian administration. Its military structure remains intact. And despite Tehran’s public silence, few expect Iran’s relationship with Hamas to disappear.

Potential state TV shakeup tests Iran’s willingness to rein in hardliners

Jul 7, 2026, 19:04 GMT+1
•
Behrouz Turani
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Iran's state broadcaster's chief Peyman Jebelli (left) and his cultural deputy Vahid Jalili, the brother of hardline politician Saeed Jalili

The looming end of Payman Jebelli’s term as head of Iran’s state broadcaster has become a political test of whether the country’s new leadership is prepared to rein in hardliners accused of hijacking public media.

Iranians frustrated with years of one-sided, hardline coverage by the Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting, or IRIB, are increasingly watching the possible leadership change as an early sign of whether the system intends to correct course.

Radical anti-diplomacy factions have long used IRIB, whose chief is directly appointed by the supreme leader, to undermine pragmatist efforts toward a breakthrough with Washington.

That pressure continued even during the weeklong funeral ceremonies for former Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, when hardline voices on state television kept attacking attempts to shift the country away from wartime confrontation.

As Jebelli’s five-year term nears its end, criticism of his tenure and his ultraconservative Paydari Party allies has moved from reformist circles into more mainstream political commentary.

Jebelli and his cultural deputy Vahid Jalili, the brother of senior conservative politician Saeed Jalili, are widely regarded by critics as key figures behind IRIB’s hardline editorial line, particularly its hostility toward the government’s diplomatic and postwar agenda.

Many Iranians and media analysts now view a possible shakeup at the broadcaster as a signal of whether Iran’s new leadership is willing to curb unilateral rhetoric and restore a degree of institutional balance to state media.

A commentary on the moderate news site Asr-e Iran, headlined “Countdown to the Start of Changes in the IRIB,” said the political fallout over the broadcaster’s recent censorship of Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf had reached senior levels of the establishment.

  • Iran parliament cries censorship after Ghalibaf interview cut short

    Iran parliament cries censorship after Ghalibaf interview cut short

According to the report, the incident is no longer being treated as a routine editorial or executive mistake, but as a threat to national security and internal cohesion at a sensitive moment of postwar realignment.

The outlet said a political “countdown” had begun behind closed doors, pointing to a possible restructuring aimed at ending radical factions’ grip over the state’s most powerful media platform.

Asr-e Iran argued that IRIB had crossed a major political red line by turning a partisan media dispute into a broader governance crisis. It said a publicly funded broadcaster could not be allowed to become “the private clubhouse of an extremist faction” defying what it described as the official consensus of the governing branches.

The commentary said the current management model at IRIB had become an internal obstacle to the state’s strategic direction and called for a purge of the broadcaster’s leadership.

'IRIB deepens state-society divide'

Earlier this week, the pro-reform daily Arman-e Melli also described IRIB’s abrupt censorship of relatively moderate figures, including Ghalibaf, as evidence of a deeper institutional crisis within Iran’s political elite.

The paper accused IRIB’s leadership of being “hijacked by a narrow, radical faction allied with hardline rejectionists” and said the broadcaster was using public media to suppress even official state narratives when they conflicted with factional interests.

By censoring the head of the legislative branch at a time when he is seeking to move the country from wartime footing toward economic reconstruction, the daily argued, IRIB had openly damaged the appearance of internal unity.

Arman-e Melli said the broadcaster had deepened the divide between the state and society and shown that it could not tolerate even the official narrative of a conservative parliament speaker.

In a separate commentary in the same paper, reformist figure Hassan Rasouli offered a broader critique of factional infighting, arguing that public dissent by hardline elements weakens the state’s leverage in international negotiations.

Rasouli called for a temporary freeze on factional rivalry, saying domestic media platforms should serve as pillars of administrative cohesion during a critical geopolitical transition. He argued that projecting strategic stability abroad requires protecting the executive branch from internal sabotage at home.

The debate over IRIB comes as Iran’s new leadership faces growing scrutiny over whether promised or anticipated institutional changes will materialize.

Earlier this week, Judiciary Chief Gholamhossein Mohseni Ejei was reinstated, disappointing many Iranians, particularly human rights advocates who had hoped for change.

If Jebelli and his team are also reinstated at IRIB, public frustration is likely to deepen and reinforce the perception that the system remains unwilling to reform its most unilateral and hardline institutions.