Iran International
Tehran media are publishing increasingly stark assessments of the country's social and economic trajectory, warning that years of sanctions, economic mismanagement and external shocks are eroding both the working class and the middle class.
Recent reports by state-linked, reformist and business-affiliated institutions suggest growing concern not only about economic hardship but also about its long-term social consequences.
One of the most striking indicators comes from Eghtesad News, which reported in May that Iran's middle class, estimated at 65% to 70% of the population at the beginning of the 2010s, now accounts for only around half of the country's population.
While the recent conflict involving Israel and the United States has intensified economic pressures, many analysts argue that the underlying deterioration long predates the war.
A separate study highlighted by the state-owned Mehr News Agency points to mounting pressure on small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs), which remain among the largest employers of working- and lower-middle-class Iranians.
According to the Iran Chamber of Commerce Research Center, macroeconomic pressures are "systematically destroying" SMEs while leaving large state-backed entities comparatively insulated.
Unable to access affordable financing and struggling with rising costs, many businesses have resorted to what the report describes as "hidden layoffs"—reducing working hours, delaying wage payments and replacing long-term contracts with temporary arrangements.
The result, according to the report, is a gradual shift of workers out of the formal economy and into more precarious forms of employment.
That trend is explored in a separate analysis published by the reformist website Rouydad24, which traces the growth of informal labor to the sanctions shock that followed intensified international pressure in 2012.
Industries dependent on foreign trade and international supply chains increasingly turned to informal employment arrangements, hiring workers without insurance coverage or social-security protections.
According to the report, the probability of workers entering the informal economy rose by roughly 9% following the sanctions shock, with the effects becoming more pronounced over time.
While the informal sector helped absorb displaced workers and prevented a sharper rise in unemployment, the long-term costs have been significant. Analysts cited by Rouydad24 point to lower productivity, weaker tax collection and growing strain on pension funds as insurance contributions decline.
Low-skilled and less-educated workers have experienced the highest rates of displacement into insecure employment, while rural communities have seen some of the sharpest reductions in working hours and income stability.
What began as a deterioration in working-class security has increasingly spread into the middle class, leading to housing insecurity, declining consumption, shrinking access to cultural activities and growing economic pessimism.
Property prices and rents have risen far faster than incomes, forcing many households into smaller homes, peripheral neighborhoods or satellite towns on the outskirts of major cities.
Economists warn that such displacement carries broader social consequences, weakening community ties, increasing commuting times and reducing overall quality of life.
Inflation has also altered household consumption patterns. Reports increasingly describe families reducing spending on meat, dairy products and other staples, while expenditures on books, cinema, travel, restaurants and other cultural activities have become harder to sustain.
The cumulative effect is a gradual narrowing of the economic and social space traditionally associated with middle-class life.
These assessments stand in sharp contrast to recent remarks by Vice President Jafar Ghaempanah, who said that 82% of Iranians were satisfied with market management and the availability of essential goods during the war.
His comments came as government officials simultaneously acknowledged that authorities were unable to increase the purchasing power of subsidized coupons used to buy basic necessities.
For many economists, the central concern extends beyond living standards. Historically, Iran's middle class has played an important role in education, entrepreneurship, professional development and civic participation.
As economic pressures push more households downward, analysts increasingly warn of declining social mobility, weaker social trust and a growing risk of future instability.
The warnings emerging from Iranian experts converge on a similar point: the country's economic difficulties are no longer confined to the poorest segments of society and are reshaping the social foundations on which long-term stability depends.
Tehran’s unveiling of a towering statue depicting the Roman Emperor Valerian kneeling before pre-Islamic Persian King Shapur I has renewed criticism of the Islamic Republic’s appeal to nationalist sentiment following the June war with Israel.
For over forty years, the theocracy purged ancient Persian history from schoolbooks, replacing it with post-Islamic narratives. But after the 12-day conflict with Israel, officials have turned to the distant pre-Islamic past to rally a divided society.
From murals of ancient kings and soldiers to patriotic songs added to Shi’ite mourning ceremonies performed before Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, Tehran now embraces imagery once deemed heretical by its own revolutionary ethos.
'Kneel before Iran' campaign
Tehran’s Revolution (Enghelab) Square was the scene of an unusual spectacle on Friday as officials unveiled a massive bronze statue depicting Roman Emperor Valerian kneeling in submission before Sassanid King Shapur I, commemorating Iran’s victory at the Battle of Edessa (260 AD).
The event was held under the slogan “Kneel before Iran,” part of what authorities describe as a campaign to project “national unity and historical pride” following the June war with Israel.
Tehran Mayor Alireza Zakani, a staunch ultraconservative, said on X: “Enmity with Great Iran can only end in kneeling before this historic nation.”
Municipal official Davood Goodarzi said the installation would be accompanied by visual displays depicting “other victories of Iranians over foreign aggressors,” including the defeat of British forces by local commander Rais-Ali Delvari, Mirza Kuchak Khan’s resistance against Russian troops, and Surena’s triumph over Rome at the Battle of Carrhae in 53 BCE.
The goal, Goodarzi said, is “strengthening concepts such as national dignity, social unity, and Iranian identity.”
The statue, he said, would remain temporarily at Revolution Square before being moved to a city gateway “where it will stand as the first emblem of Iran before diplomats and foreign visitors.”
Unveiled women were allowed to attend the unveiling ceremony—an uncommon scene at events organized by Tehran’s ultra-hardline municipality.
The turn to the pre-Islamic past
The sharp reversal also recalls remarks once made by Khamenei. In a 2011 speech, he asserted that “all the great military victories of this nation came after Islam,” dismissing pre-Islamic accounts as “things that are not documented.”
In 1987, he had said that prophets triumphed over kings such as Cyrus and that “nothing remains of these monarchs in history but names remembered with derision.”
Nevertheless, pro-government social media accounts have now gone so far as to circulate posters equating Khamenei himself with Shapur, showing him standing with a staff as Benjamin Netanyahu and Donald Trump kneel before him. The caption reads: “You will kneel before Iran.”
'Hypocrisy'
Pro-government figures have hailed the move as a patriotic success. Conservative political reporter Hossein Saremi posted: “Today’s grand Iranian gathering showed that people and the state share one essence: Iran itself. Nothing can take our homeland away.”
Others, however, called the spectacle “hypocrisy.” Journalist Gholamhossein Pashaei wrote on X: “Every year you close Pasargadae to stop people from celebrating Cyrus Day, yet you unveil Shapur’s statue in Enghelab Square with drums and fireworks during Fatimiyya (mourning period)!”
Dissident commentator Hamid Asafi called the ceremony “a perfect snapshot of the Islamic Republic’s contradictions.”
On Telegram he wrote: “A week ago they closed Cyrus’s tomb out of fear of the crowds, and now they glorify Shapur in the same breath. The Islamic Republic fears living history but poses for selfies with its corpse.”
He added: “They know people no longer respond to rosaries and sermons. That’s why they’ve brought history back to the stage—in a controlled costume. If they can’t erase the past, they’ll try to own it.”
The irony deepened as UNESCO formally recognized Cyrus’s Charter as one of the earliest human-rights documents.
President Masoud Pezeshkian wrote on X: “Iran, the cradle of dialogue, justice, and coexistence, can still inspire peace today.”
Users swiftly replied, questioning how such pride could coexist with a government that blocks access to Cyrus’s tomb each year to those wishing to visit it on his birthday.