Caspian Sea becomes key trade route for Iran amid Hormuz disruption - NYT
The Caspian Sea has emerged as a critical trade and military supply route for Iran as Tehran seeks alternatives to the Strait of Hormuz amid the US naval blockade, the New York Times reported.
According to the report, Russia has been shipping commercial goods and drone components to Iran through the landlocked waterway, helping Tehran replenish military supplies and sustain imports disrupted by tensions around Hormuz.
US officials told the newspaper that Russia is sending drone parts to help Iran rebuild capabilities after losing much of its drone arsenal in recent fighting. Iranian officials also said food imports including wheat, corn and cooking oil are increasingly being rerouted through Caspian ports.
Unlike the Strait of Hormuz, the Caspian is inaccessible to the United States militarily because only the five bordering states have access, making it an attractive route for sanctions evasion and military transfers, the report said.
“If you’re thinking about the ideal place for sanction evasion and military transfers, it’s the Caspian,” one expert told the Times.
British prosecutors have charged two men with religiously aggravated harassment offences after they allegedly traveled to the predominantly Jewish neighborhood of Stamford Hill in north London to film antisemitic social media videos.
The charges relate to allegations that Jewish residents were approached, harassed and filmed.
Adam Bedoui, 20, and Abdelkader Amir Bousloub, 21, are due to appear at Thames Magistrates’ Court on Saturday, the Crown Prosecution Service said.
“The Crown Prosecution Service has decided to charge Adam Bedoui ... and Abdelkader Amir Bousloub ... following an incident where Jewish people in Stamford Hill were being approached, harassed and filmed,” Chief Crown Prosecutor Huw Rogers said.
Bahrain’s interior ministry said on Saturday it had arrested 41 people allegedly linked to a group tied to Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and the ideology of Velayat-e Faqih (Guardianship of the Jurist).
The ministry said security services uncovered what it described as the group’s “main organization” following intelligence gathering and earlier investigations into cases involving alleged espionage for foreign actors and sympathy with what it called “the blatant Iranian aggression.”
Authorities said legal proceedings against those detained were underway and investigations continued to identify others allegedly involved in the group’s activities.
The shadow of a closed Strait of Hormuz no longer looms as a mere threat; it is a reality that has shattered the traditional foundations of the global energy market.
In the latest episode of the Eye for Iran podcast, host Mohamad Machine-Chian sat down with two foremost experts to dissect the fallout: Bozorgmehr Sharafedin, Head of Digital News Services at Iran International and former Reuters Energy Correspondent, and Dr. Iman Naseri, Managing Director for the Middle East at FGE Dubai.
Together, they painted a picture of a region at a point of no return, where a "broken" waterway might be forcing the world to permanently look elsewhere.
Tehran’s unexpected leverage
For decades, the Islamic Republic used the threat of closing the Strait as a rhetorical deterrent. However, according to Bozorgmehr Sharafedin, the actual closure in early 2026 was as much a surprise to Tehran as it was to the world. Having seen their primary deterrents – missile programs and regional proxies like Hezbollah – fail to prevent direct conflict with the US and Israel, the establishment stumbled upon a different kind of power.
"Iranians are also surprised," Sharafedin noted. "The deterrence they didn’t count on that much – the closure of the Strait of Hormuz – became their most valuable card. Now, they are tying the future security of Iran to the management of Hormuz. We had the deputy speaker of the parliament saying that the Strait of Hormuz is our nuclear weapon."
Dr. Iman Naseri, Managing Director of FGE Dubai
This shift in doctrine has led to a dangerous sense of triumphalism in Tehran. State-controlled media has floated the idea of imposing "transit fees" or "security taxes" on ships, much like the Suez Canal. But Sharafedin warns that this strategy is fatally short-sighted. Unlike the Suez, which is governed by an international treaty and relative predictability, the Islamic Republic’s logic defies stability. "They will try to impose their political views and preferences on this transit route," he explained. "Many shipping lines simply won't risk it."
The 'broken vase' of global energy
The economic consequences of this closure are already being felt, even if they aren't always visible in the "Brent Crude" price tag seen on news tickers. Dr. Iman Naseri pointed out that while the public looks at futures prices, the physical market has been in agony.
"The price of jet fuel was over $200 for a prolonged period," Naseri revealed. "The market is furious and frustrated. We have 12 to 14 million barrels per day of unsupplied demand. In India, many people do not have gas for cooking. The demand destruction has already happened."
This disruption has permanently changed how global powers view the Persian Gulf. Sharafedin cited comments by International Energy Agency (IEA) chief Fatih Birol, saying: "The Strait of Hormuz is like a broken vase. It's broken. The damage is done. It's almost impossible to put it back together." The world is no longer waiting for the Strait to reopen; it is actively building a future without it.
The exodus to alternative routes
The most immediate reaction to the blockade has been a massive surge in investment toward alternative infrastructure. Pipelines that were once considered "economically unfeasible" are now receiving emergency funding. Sharafedin noted that since the start of the conflict in February, the volume of oil transferred via alternative routes has nearly doubled, jumping from 4.2 million to 7 million barrels per day.
"Iraq recently allocated $1.5 billion for a pipeline connecting Basra to Jordan, Syria, and Turkey," Sharafedin said. This diversification isn't limited to the Middle East. Buyers like Pakistan, which relied on Kuwaiti oil for 50 years, are now sourcing crude from Nigeria, Libya, and the United States. Even China, the region's biggest customer, is accelerating its trillion-dollar pivot toward nuclear and solar energy to escape its reliance on the Hormuz bottleneck.
Regional prosperity held hostage
While the global economy may eventually adjust by finding new suppliers, the outlook for the Middle East itself is much grimmer. For the last decade, countries like the UAE, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia have tied their future prosperity to a logic of stability and foreign investment. That dream is now under direct attack.
"The Islamic Republic is single-handedly holding the region down," Sharafedin argued. He pointed out that every time the region moves toward a better future – whether through the Arab Uprisings or attracting tech giants like Amazon AWS – Tehran intervenes to sabotage the stability required for such progress. By attacking infrastructure in Fujairah and targeting tankers in the Red Sea, the regime has signaled that no alternative route is safe.
"I don't think many of those countries can now justify the investment of huge data centers," Sharafedin lamented. "Both short-term and long-term, the regional countries will pay a heavy price."
Scenarios for 2027: A prolonged limbo
As the US shifts from "Operation Epic Fury" to "Project Freedom," a new diplomatic phase is emerging, but Dr. Naseri remains skeptical of a quick fix. He outlined a base-case scenario where the market sees only a "gradual recovery" to about 60% of pre-war levels by late 2026, with the situation remaining largely flat well into 2027.
The fundamental issue, Naseri argues, is the massive gap between Washington and Tehran’s expectations. "The same regime that has not agreed to terms over the last couple of years will not suddenly do so now," he said. While a potential Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) might provide temporary "happy headlines" to calm traders, the structural reality remains one of severe disruption.
Iran’s judiciary spokesman Asghar Jahangir said on Saturday that authorities had so far seized 262 properties belonging to Iranian citizens in cases linked to war-related accusations.
Speaking at a press conference, Jahangir said the figure was based on actions taken following requests from the prosecutor general’s office.
He added that Iran’s property registration authority had conducted 722 inquiries tied to arrest and asset seizure requests involving citizens since the conflict began.
Hossein Shariatmadari, editor-in-chief of Iran’s hardline Kayhan newspaper, said countries supporting a proposed UN resolution calling on Iran to halt attacks and mining in the Strait of Hormuz should lose access to the waterway.
“We should officially announce that countries voting in favor of the draft resolution will be considered hostile states and ships under their ownership, or carrying imports or exports for them, will not be allowed to pass through the Strait of Hormuz,” Shariatmadari wrote.
His comments referred to a US- and Arab state-backed draft UN Security Council resolution demanding Iran stop attacks in the strait, disclose the locations of any mines and refrain from obstructing shipping. The measure is expected to face likely vetoes from China and Russia, according to diplomats.
