Can Tehran weaponize the Strait of Hormuz for years to come?
The shadow of a closed Strait of Hormuz no longer looms as a mere threat; it is a reality that has shattered the traditional foundations of the global energy market.
The shadow of a closed Strait of Hormuz no longer looms as a mere threat; it is a reality that has shattered the traditional foundations of the global energy market.
In the latest episode of the Eye for Iran podcast, host Mohamad Machine-Chian sat down with two foremost experts to dissect the fallout: Bozorgmehr Sharafedin, Head of Digital News Services at Iran International and former Reuters Energy Correspondent, and Dr. Iman Naseri, Managing Director for the Middle East at FGE Dubai.
Together, they painted a picture of a region at a point of no return, where a "broken" waterway might be forcing the world to permanently look elsewhere.
Tehran’s unexpected leverage
For decades, the Islamic Republic used the threat of closing the Strait as a rhetorical deterrent. However, according to Bozorgmehr Sharafedin, the actual closure in early 2026 was as much a surprise to Tehran as it was to the world. Having seen their primary deterrents – missile programs and regional proxies like Hezbollah – fail to prevent direct conflict with the US and Israel, the establishment stumbled upon a different kind of power.
"Iranians are also surprised," Sharafedin noted. "The deterrence they didn’t count on that much – the closure of the Strait of Hormuz – became their most valuable card. Now, they are tying the future security of Iran to the management of Hormuz. We had the deputy speaker of the parliament saying that the Strait of Hormuz is our nuclear weapon."
This shift in doctrine has led to a dangerous sense of triumphalism in Tehran. State-controlled media has floated the idea of imposing "transit fees" or "security taxes" on ships, much like the Suez Canal. But Sharafedin warns that this strategy is fatally short-sighted. Unlike the Suez, which is governed by an international treaty and relative predictability, the Islamic Republic’s logic defies stability. "They will try to impose their political views and preferences on this transit route," he explained. "Many shipping lines simply won't risk it."
The 'broken vase' of global energy
The economic consequences of this closure are already being felt, even if they aren't always visible in the "Brent Crude" price tag seen on news tickers. Dr. Iman Naseri pointed out that while the public looks at futures prices, the physical market has been in agony.
"The price of jet fuel was over $200 for a prolonged period," Naseri revealed. "The market is furious and frustrated. We have 12 to 14 million barrels per day of unsupplied demand. In India, many people do not have gas for cooking. The demand destruction has already happened."
This disruption has permanently changed how global powers view the Persian Gulf. Sharafedin cited comments by International Energy Agency (IEA) chief Fatih Birol, saying: "The Strait of Hormuz is like a broken vase. It's broken. The damage is done. It's almost impossible to put it back together." The world is no longer waiting for the Strait to reopen; it is actively building a future without it.
The exodus to alternative routes
The most immediate reaction to the blockade has been a massive surge in investment toward alternative infrastructure. Pipelines that were once considered "economically unfeasible" are now receiving emergency funding. Sharafedin noted that since the start of the conflict in February, the volume of oil transferred via alternative routes has nearly doubled, jumping from 4.2 million to 7 million barrels per day.
"Iraq recently allocated $1.5 billion for a pipeline connecting Basra to Jordan, Syria, and Turkey," Sharafedin said. This diversification isn't limited to the Middle East. Buyers like Pakistan, which relied on Kuwaiti oil for 50 years, are now sourcing crude from Nigeria, Libya, and the United States. Even China, the region's biggest customer, is accelerating its trillion-dollar pivot toward nuclear and solar energy to escape its reliance on the Hormuz bottleneck.
Regional prosperity held hostage
While the global economy may eventually adjust by finding new suppliers, the outlook for the Middle East itself is much grimmer. For the last decade, countries like the UAE, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia have tied their future prosperity to a logic of stability and foreign investment. That dream is now under direct attack.
"The Islamic Republic is single-handedly holding the region down," Sharafedin argued. He pointed out that every time the region moves toward a better future – whether through the Arab Uprisings or attracting tech giants like Amazon AWS – Tehran intervenes to sabotage the stability required for such progress. By attacking infrastructure in Fujairah and targeting tankers in the Red Sea, the regime has signaled that no alternative route is safe.
"I don't think many of those countries can now justify the investment of huge data centers," Sharafedin lamented. "Both short-term and long-term, the regional countries will pay a heavy price."
Scenarios for 2027: A prolonged limbo
As the US shifts from "Operation Epic Fury" to "Project Freedom," a new diplomatic phase is emerging, but Dr. Naseri remains skeptical of a quick fix. He outlined a base-case scenario where the market sees only a "gradual recovery" to about 60% of pre-war levels by late 2026, with the situation remaining largely flat well into 2027.
The fundamental issue, Naseri argues, is the massive gap between Washington and Tehran’s expectations. "The same regime that has not agreed to terms over the last couple of years will not suddenly do so now," he said. While a potential Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) might provide temporary "happy headlines" to calm traders, the structural reality remains one of severe disruption.
The Washington-based Institute said three other attacked sites could also be nuclear-related, but there was not enough information to be certain. In total, it said six to nine recently attacked sites were nuclear-related.
The most consequential finding is that four to seven of those sites were directly, or possibly, connected to nuclear weaponization – the process of turning nuclear material into an actual bomb.
Iran’s nuclear program has two main parts. One is producing enriched uranium, the material that can be used as fuel for civilian reactors or, at much higher levels, in a nuclear weapon. The other is weaponization: designing, testing and producing the components needed to make a working bomb.
The Institute’s report suggests the latest strikes focused heavily on the second part.
It said the recent phase of the war appeared aimed less at Iran’s already damaged enrichment infrastructure and more at degrading its ability to make the weapon itself. Some of the sites hit in this phase had not previously been publicly identified, the report said, offering new insight into what it described as the extent of Iran’s nuclear weapons-related work.
Across both phases of the war – the 12-day conflict in June 2025 and the renewed fighting from February 28 until a ceasefire on April 7/8, 2026 – the Institute said nine to 12 sites involved in developing and building nuclear weapons were targeted.
The report said Iran’s major enrichment facilities remained severely damaged from the June 2025 war. It said there was no significant new damage to facilities directly associated with uranium enrichment because they had already been destroyed, and that no reconstruction or renewed enrichment had been detected.
But the Institute said the latest strikes added another layer of damage by targeting places linked to the practical work of making a bomb.
One of the most important sites was Min-Zadayi (also Minzadehei), a previously unknown complex east of Tehran.
Israel described it as a secret nuclear compound where scientists were working on a key component of a nuclear weapons system. The Institute said later reporting suggested the site may have been involved in metallurgy – likely work connected to producing the uranium metal core of a nuclear weapon.
In simple terms, that would be one of the most sensitive stages of bomb-making: taking nuclear material and preparing it in the physical form needed for a weapon.
Satellite imagery showed three large above-ground buildings destroyed at Min-Zadayi, as well as craters near hillside and possibly partially buried structures, the report said.
Another major target was Taleghan 2, inside the Parchin military complex. The site has long been associated with Iran’s past nuclear weapons work under the Amad Plan, a program believed to have been halted in its original form in 2003 but followed by later, more concealed work.
The Institute said Iran had rebuilt and heavily fortified Taleghan 2 before it was hit in March. Satellite imagery showed earth-penetrating weapons struck the facility directly. The report said the site may have contained high-explosive containment equipment.
That is significant because high explosives are central to the design of many nuclear weapons. They are used to compress nuclear material rapidly and evenly, a crucial step in producing a nuclear explosion.
The report also mentioned strikes near the Mojdeh site, also known as Lavisan 2, and at Malek Ashtar University. Both have been linked in the report to Iran’s nuclear weapons research network.
A newly built engineering-laboratory building near Mojdeh was destroyed, while a building at Malek Ashtar was described by Israel as a research and development site used to develop components for nuclear weapons production.
Other targets included the Shahid Chamran Group complex, which the Institute connected to nuclear-related research, and a building at Imam Hussein University that Israel labeled as a physics center used for Iran’s nuclear program.
The strikes also hit two sites tied to Iran’s broader nuclear fuel cycle. The Arak heavy water production plant was destroyed more thoroughly than during the June war, the Institute said. Heavy water can be used in certain types of reactors that can produce plutonium, another possible route to a nuclear weapon.
The Ardakan Yellowcake Production Plant was also rendered inoperable. Yellowcake is an early processed form of uranium. It is not bomb material, but it is a starting point for later nuclear work, including enrichment.
Enriched uranium stockpile
Despite the damage, the report does not suggest Iran’s nuclear challenge has been eliminated.
The most important unresolved issue is Iran’s enriched uranium stockpile. The Institute said tunnel complexes at Esfahan and near Natanz were not directly attacked in this phase and are believed to hold most of Iran’s enriched uranium, including about 440 kilograms of uranium enriched to 60 percent.
That level is below weapons-grade, but far above what is typically needed for civilian nuclear power and much closer to the level needed for a bomb.
The Institute said Iran had sealed some tunnel entrances before the latest war and that much of the enriched uranium appears “bottled up” in places where movement would be easier to detect. But without international inspection, the exact status of the material remains unclear.
The report also said additional nuclear scientists were killed, including senior figures linked to SPND, the military research organization associated with Iran’s nuclear weapons-related work. The Institute drew a distinction between knowledge, which cannot be destroyed, and practical know-how, which can be much harder to replace in a secret weapons program.
The overall picture is therefore one of severe damage, but not finality as Iran may still possess a large stockpile of enriched uranium, and underground sites remain a central uncertainty.
The Institute’s assessment is that the attacks have increased both the time Iran would need to build a nuclear weapon and the chance that an attempt could fail. Its argument is not simply that buildings were destroyed, but that Iran lost facilities, equipment and people connected to the difficult final steps of making a usable weapon.
Information received by Iran International points to growing financial pressure across sectors including agriculture, fishing, retail and manufacturing after weeks of disruption linked to conflict, internet shutdowns and trade uncertainty.
The price of potassium fertilizer for a 50-kilogram sack has increased tenfold compared to last year, reaching about 70 million rials (around $40), one farmer told Iran International.
Rice farmers typically require around six sacks of fertilizer per hectare, sharply increasing cultivation costs at a time when many already struggle with falling incomes.
The farmer added that urea fertilizer prices have also risen severalfold in recent months.
Mehdi Hosseinizadeh, head of Iran’s Association of Pesticide and Fertilizer Importers, linked the increase in fertilizer prices on Thursday to damage suffered by some petrochemical facilities during the war and shipping disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz.
Hosseinizadeh also cited rising import costs, shortages in global fertilizer markets, difficulties securing supplies from China and India, and problems related to currency allocation and import registration.
Another farmer had earlier told Iran International that the price of drip irrigation tape rose from 4 million rials ($2.25) to 30 million ($17), while fertilizer costs climbed from 8 million rials ($4.5) to more than 100 million ($57).
Drip irrigation tape is a thin polymer tube used in irrigation systems to deliver water gradually to plant roots and reduce water consumption in row crops.
Workers report layoffs and business closures
Citizens from several provinces described worsening conditions for workers and tradespeople during the ceasefire period following the conflict.
A fisherman from Qeshm island said he had been unemployed for several months and that falling prices for export fish had increased pressure on local fishermen.
Another resident from Sarbandar, Khuzestan province, described rising unemployment among port workers and shrinking household incomes.
“Everything I earn goes toward rent, transportation and a small amount of food,” the resident said.
Several citizens had previously told Iran International they were selling household goods, work tools and personal belongings to cover food and basic living expenses after losing jobs and income.
One former worker from Tehran said he had been unemployed for nearly three months after beginning work in the electrical equipment market.
“My financial situation has deteriorated sharply and daily life has become difficult to endure,” he said.
A florist from Arak said the prices of supplies including paper, glue, ribbons, boxes and floral foam had quadrupled over the past two months.
Residents in Kashan also described carpet factories shutting down and laying off workers.
Shopkeepers in several parts of Tehran, also reported widespread business closures.
