Israel says IRGC missile unit commander within Hezbollah killed in Beirut

The figures suggest Tehran’s oil lifeline has not been cut despite a widening maritime crisis that has already disrupted shipping and shaken energy markets since the war began on February 28.

Instead, the conflict is evolving into a prolonged contest over energy flows: Iran continues exporting oil – largely to China – while simultaneously applying military pressure on one of the world’s most important oil chokepoints.

The Strait of Hormuz, the narrow passage off Iran’s southern coast connecting the Persian Gulf to global markets, normally carries about a fifth of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas shipments.

But the waterway has effectively become a war zone.

Since the start of hostilities, at least 16 commercial vessels have been struck or attacked in and around the strait and the wider Persian Gulf, according to a Reuters tally.

The incidents have included attacks on tankers, bulk carriers and container ships, forcing evacuations, halting port operations in parts of Iraq and driving insurers and ship operators to reconsider voyages through the area.

Iran’s Revolutionary Guards have warned that ships passing through the strait could be targeted, reinforcing fears that the waterway is now being used as a pressure point in the wider conflict.

Release of strategic reserves

The growing disruption has pushed the International Energy Agency and major consuming nations to take the extraordinary step of releasing 400 million barrels from strategic reserves, the largest such intervention in the agency’s history.

IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol said the decision had already had a “strong impact” on markets and was aimed at stabilizing supply after the war triggered one of the biggest oil disruptions on record.

The agency estimates global supply could fall by 8 million barrels per day in March as production across the Middle East is curtailed and shipping through Hormuz slows to a fraction of normal levels.

But the reserve release has done little to calm markets.

Oil prices briefly surged above $100 a barrel this week and remain volatile as traders weigh the risk that shipping through the Persian Gulf could remain constrained for weeks or months.

Analysts say the problem is not simply the availability of oil but the difficulty of moving it safely through a militarized sea lane.

Joel Hancock, an energy analyst at Natixis CIB, said markets were questioning how quickly emergency reserves could reach buyers, warning that a market balanced through stock releases would be “far less logistically efficient.”

Shockwaves beyond oil

The war has also begun to ripple through global energy markets beyond crude.

In Europe, gas prices rose sharply as fears grew that tanker attacks in the Persian Gulf could disrupt shipments of liquefied natural gas, around 20% of which normally transits the Strait of Hormuz.

Qatar, one of the world’s largest LNG exporters, has declared force majeure on some shipments, tightening global supplies and raising concerns about Europe’s ability to refill depleted gas storage before next winter.

Financial markets have reacted nervously as well. Rising oil prices have revived fears of inflation and pushed investors to scale back expectations of interest rate cuts by major central banks.

The war’s central energy paradox is that Iran cannot fully shut global oil flows without hurting itself, yet it has shown it can make the Persian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz dangerous enough to rattle markets and force governments to act, even while keeping a substantial share of its own exports – mainly to China – moving.

Poland said on Thursday it had foiled a cyberattack on its national center for nuclear research and was examining indications that Iran may have been behind it, while cautioning the signs could have been planted to conceal the attackers’ true location.

Digital Affairs Minister Krzysztof Gawkowski told TVN24+ the attack took place in recent days and that it was stopped before breaching the center’s defenses.

He said initial indicators linked the attack to Iran, but added that the findings were still being verified.

The center conducts research into nuclear energy, subatomic physics and related fields. Poland does not have nuclear weapons and is building its first nuclear power plant.

Up to 3.2 million people have been temporarily displaced inside Iran as the conflict intensifies, the UNHCR said.

Preliminary assessments show between 600,000 and 1 million Iranian households have left their homes, many fleeing Tehran and other major cities for northern and rural areas.

The agency said the number could rise as hostilities continue and warned that refugee families in Iran, many from Afghanistan, were also increasingly vulnerable.

Israel said on Thursday it struck another Iranian compound used for nuclear weapons development in Tehran.

The Israeli military said the Taleghan compound was used to advance critical capabilities for developing nuclear weapons.

According to the IDF, the compound had in recent years been used to develop advanced explosives and carry out sensitive experiments linked to the AMAD project, Iran’s covert nuclear weapons development program in the 2000s.

The military said it had recently identified efforts by Iran to rehabilitate the site after it was struck in October 2024. It said the latest attack was part of a broader campaign targeting infrastructure and knowledge centers tied to Iran’s nuclear program.

Among the most serious allegations are reports that wounded army personnel have been denied assistance by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), that some frontline units are operating with minimal ammunition, food and drinking water, and that attempts to mobilize reserve forces have faltered.

Tensions between army and Revolutionary Guards

One of the sharpest points of friction appears to involve medical support for wounded soldiers.

Sources said that regular army units are suffering significant casualties but that IRGC personnel have refused to transport injured army soldiers to hospitals despite having access to medical facilities.

According to the sources, Revolutionary Guards officials rejected repeated army requests for assistance, citing shortages of ambulances and blood supplies.

The refusals have deepened anger and resentment between personnel from the two forces, adding to long-standing institutional tensions between the regular army (Artesh) and the IRGC.

Frontline shortages

The reported tensions come alongside severe shortages affecting some frontline and field units of the Iranian army.

Sources described worsening logistical conditions that have left troops struggling with limited ammunition and inadequate basic supplies.

In one example cited by the sources, some units were issued only 20 bullets for every two Artesh soldiers, leaving troops with little capacity to respond to potential attacks.

Field units in several areas are also said to be operating without reliable access to drinking water or sufficient food supplies.

The harsh conditions and what some soldiers perceive as neglect by commanders have contributed to what sources described as group desertions, with soldiers leaving bases and seeking refuge in nearby towns.

Strain extends to IRGC units

The strain is not limited to the regular army, according to the sources.

Even within IRGC missile units – traditionally among the best resourced parts of Iran’s military – there have been reports of communications equipment failures and shortages of food and other basic supplies.

Despite these problems, the sources said the command structure appears to be prioritizing the delivery of technical components needed to keep missile systems operational, rather than sending additional food rations or individual equipment to personnel.

The accounts suggest commanders are focusing on maintaining strategic weapons capabilities while troops face deteriorating living conditions.

Reserve mobilization falters

Efforts to widen the manpower pool appear to have run into resistance as well.

Sources said attempts by the Revolutionary Guards to mobilize reserve forces earlier this week produced limited results.

Many of those summoned for service reportedly did not report to military centers. Instead, some individuals used the situation to leave their areas and assist family members in moving toward border regions in hopes of leaving the country.