Suspected missile fuel shipments sail from China to Iran

The vessels – the Shabdis and the Barzin – are operated by the Islamic Republic of Iran Shipping Lines (IRISL), a state-owned carrier under sanctions by the United States, Britain and the European Union. Washington has accused IRISL of transporting materials used in Iran’s ballistic missile program.

The ships recently docked at Gaolan port in Zhuhai on China’s southeastern coast, a facility experts say handles large volumes of industrial chemicals, including sodium perchlorate, a key precursor used to produce solid rocket fuel.

Experts tracking the vessels said the cargo likely includes sodium perchlorate, which Iran requires for missile propellants.

“Given the track record, the most parsimonious explanation is that they’re loading the same commodity they’ve been shuttling for the past year-plus,” Isaac Kardon, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, said.

Kardon said Beijing could have delayed the ships’ departure using administrative or customs procedures but did not do so.

“China could have held these vessels at port, imposed an administrative delay, invented a customs hold – any number of bureaucratic tools, but didn’t,” he said, calling the decision notable at a time when the United States and Iran are engaged in direct military confrontation.

As of Saturday, both ships were in the South China Sea. The Barzin had anchored off the coast of Malaysia while en route to Iran’s Bandar Abbas port, about 4,000 miles away, where it is expected to arrive next week. The Shabdis is sailing toward Iran’s Chabahar port, with an estimated arrival of March 16.

Both destinations lie along the Strait of Hormuz and host major Iranian naval facilities.

US sanctions announced last year targeted the transfer of sodium perchlorate and other chemicals from China to Iran, citing their use in solid propellants for ballistic missiles. Sodium perchlorate is used to produce ammonium perchlorate, a core component in missile fuel.

U.S. officials have long accused China of allowing transfers of missile-related materials to Iran, allegations Beijing has denied, saying the United States exaggerates commercial or dual-use trade.

Since the start of the year, at least a dozen other IRISL vessels have visited Gaolan port, with draft data suggesting most departed carrying cargo. Some of those ships later unloaded at Iran’s Shahid Rajaee port near Bandar Abbas, the country’s main container terminal.

The latest departures come days after US and Israeli strikes targeted Iranian missile facilities and other military infrastructure.

Analysts say that damage may have increased Iran’s need for rocket fuel components.

“Tehran’s need for propellant precursors just went from urgent to existential,” Kardon said.

Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian said on Sunday that his remarks had been “misinterpreted by the enemy” and insisted Iran still sought good relations with neighboring countries, even as retaliatory strikes continued, according to state TV.

Pezeshkian said Tehran had repeatedly made clear that it viewed neighboring states as brothers and wanted strong ties with them. But he said Iran was compelled to respond to attacks launched from another country’s territory, adding that such retaliation did not mean Tehran had a dispute with that country or wanted to upset its people.

He accused the “enemy” of trying to sow division between Iran and its neighbors.

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  Pezeshkian grilled after apologizing for ‘fire at will’ strikes on neighbors

Iran’s Revolutionary Guards continued launching attacks on neighboring countries despite President Pezeshkian’s apology to regional states and his order for the armed forces to halt such strikes, highlighting tensions over who controls wartime decisions.

Iran's Revolutionary Guards started launching attacks against the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Kuwait, and the Iraqi Kurdistan shortly after President Pezeshkian said in a televised speech he had instructed them to halt such attacks.

The IRGC strikes followed unusually sharp verbal attacks by hardliners which highlighted the limited influence Pezeshkian exercises within Iran’s power structure despite his membership in the temporary three-member leadership council that is currently exercising powers normally held by the country’s supreme leader in wartime.

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The United States and Israel have discussed sending special forces into Iran to seize its highly enriched uranium stockpiles at a later stage of the war, Axios reported citing four sources with knowledge of the discussions.

The Trump administration has discussed two options: removing the entire material from Iran or bringing in nuclear experts to dilute it on-site, the report said citing a US official.

Speaking to reporters aboard Air Force One, Trump did not rule out the use of ground forces against Iran but said that would happen only "for a very good reason."

Asked if the ground forces would be deployed to secure nuclear material, Trump said, "At some point maybe we will. We haven't gone after it. We wouldn't do it now. Maybe we will do it later."

There has also been discussion of seizing Iran's Kharg Island in the Persian Gulf which is responsible for almost 90% of Iran's crude oil exports, Axios reported citing Trump administration officials.

US intelligence agencies have concluded that Iran, or potentially another group, could retrieve highly enriched uranium buried beneath the nuclear site in Isfahan following US strikes last year, The New York Times reported, citing officials familiar with classified assessments.

According to the report, the uranium stockpile was buried under rubble after American attacks on the facility, but intelligence officials believe it may still be reachable.

The New York Times wrote that the Iranian government can currently reach the material through a very narrow access point, though it remains unclear how quickly the uranium could be moved.

The uranium is stored in gas form and kept inside specialized canisters, the report said.

US officials said American intelligence agencies are closely monitoring the Isfahan nuclear site and maintain continuous surveillance of the area.

They said the United States has a high level of confidence it would be able to detect — and respond to — any attempt by Iran or other actors to remove the uranium from the facility.