Trump weighs backing militias to oust Iran’s regime but has not decided - WSJ

Joint US-Israel strikes under Operation Epic Fury have disrupted Iran’s nuclear missile program, destroying key command centers, missile launchers, and radar sites, the Israeli ambassador to the United States said on Tuesday.

The attacks prevented Tehran from pairing enriched uranium with missile delivery systems, a critical step toward producing nuclear weapons, Ambassador Yechiel (Michael) Leiter said in a video posted on X.

“Together with the United States and Epic Fury, we have eliminated most of the radar stations in western Iran, the missile launchers, both surface-to-surface and surface-to-air. Today in Tehran, we took out the fourth of the four command centers, three we took out yesterday, creating chaos within the ranks of the Ayatollah regime. This creates a chink in the chain of command where they’re not able to send messages down the system onto the field, and that’s part of the reason we’re seeing the chaos of the Iranians firing ballistic missiles into all its neighbors all at once," Leiter said.

“The most important site we took out today was a site where they intended to pair nuclear enriched uranium with a missile delivery system. See, that’s the issue. When you’re talking about nuclear missiles, you have to take a delivery system and the enriched uranium and pair them together. That’s key when it comes to timing, because if we would have delayed these operations, they would have reached a point very soon where this impenetrable site would not have been able to be destroyed, and that’s why we had to act," he added.

“Remember what special envoy Steve Witkoff said just last night in his first meeting with the Iranians. They admitted they have 642 kilograms of enriched uranium at 60%. To go from 60% to 90% would take one week, and that would give them 11 bombs. Then all they’d have to do is pair it with the missile delivery systems, and what they’re doing now would be something we couldn’t prevent," Leiter said.

Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was killed on Saturday morning in US and Israeli air strikes. On Tuesday, according to exclusive information obtained by Iran International, Iran’s Assembly of Experts, under pressure from the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), chose his son, Mojtaba Khamenei, as the next Supreme Leader. The decision has not been made public and is expected to be announced after Ali Khamenei is buried.

This is not a routine succession. It is a wartime decision shaped by the security state, and it raises serious questions about constitutional procedure. The priority appears to be speed and control, as the Islamic Republic faces attacks from outside and a leadership vacuum at the top.

Why the IRGC pushed Mojtaba

The IRGC needed two things at the same time: control and legitimacy.

Control means keeping the chain of command intact, preventing splits at the top, keeping the security forces coordinated, and stopping a scramble for power. In this crisis, the IRGC’s first priority is internal stability.

Legitimacy matters too, but not in a broad national sense. It means legitimacy inside the regime’s core base: hard-line politicians, the security institutions, and the loyal networks that still see the Islamic Republic as “their” state. In that narrow world, Mojtaba has something others do not. He can claim direct continuity with Khamenei, and the core base can accept him without feeling the system has broken.

That combination is why the IRGC chose him.

Mojtaba also has long-standing ties to the IRGC, going back decades, and deep relationships across its command networks. For years, he has been a key channel between his father and the Guard’s leadership. That gives him a rare position. He is close to the security core, but also linked to the civilian and clerical leadership that depends on it.

He has also effectively run the Supreme Leader’s office, the Beit, for at least the past two decades, and is widely seen as Ali Khamenei’s closest confidant. The Beit is not just a state within the state. It is the core of the state itself. In practice, Iran’s elected government and president are often a façade, with little real power. Real authority has long sat in the Beit, which controls key security, political and financial levers. That is why this apparatus is now protecting itself, and why it does not want an outsider coming in and taking control.

The Islamic Republic at a fork in the road

The Islamic Republic now faces two broad directions.

One is to keep fighting, stay defiant, absorb more damage, and try to outlast the attacks. That would likely mean tighter internal control, the dispersal of forces and assets, and heavier reliance on asymmetric pressure, including missiles, drones, proxies, and covert operations, while signalling that the state will not negotiate under fire.

The other is to step back and accept major concessions to stop the war and reduce pressure. That would mean giving up key pillars of Iran’s regional and military posture in return for a halt to attacks and some easing of pressure.

Mojtaba is well placed to pursue either path.

If the system chooses a bitter deal, it needs someone who can own it and stop the hardcore from turning on the leadership. If it chooses to fight on, it needs someone who can keep the IRGC united and keep the security state functioning under sustained attack. That is the political function of this succession.

The main question now is whether Israel and the US will target him immediately or give him time to make that choice. If they strike him straight away, it will be hard to avoid one conclusion: the campaign is no longer about pressure or deterrence. It is about regime change. If they hold back, the focus shifts to Mojtaba’s next move, and whether he chooses escalation or a climbdown.

The problem of blood and revenge

Any agreement with Donald Trump was always difficult for Ali Khamenei. In Tehran’s narrative, Trump sought Iran’s “surrender” and had the blood of Qasem Soleimani on his hands. Khamenei repeatedly ruled out reconciliation and called for qisas, a concept in Islamic law meaning retribution, often understood as “life for life.”

For his successor, the burden is heavier. Trump now carries not only Soleimani’s blood, but also Ali Khamenei’s. That makes any compromise far harder to sell, and it also raises the domestic stakes for any decision to escalate.

Mojtaba has one advantage inside the system. He can present himself as the person entitled to decide what comes next. If the leadership chooses to fight on, he can frame it as continuity, duty, and retaliation. If it chooses to pause revenge and prioritise survival, he can frame it as a decision made by the heir and the family, not as a humiliation forced from the outside.

Ruhollah Khomeini, the founder and first Supreme Leader of the Islamic Republic, set the guiding rule in a line that has the force of a fatwa in Shia political doctrine: “Preserving the system is the highest duty.” In plain terms, it means the survival of the Islamic Republic comes before almost everything else. As vali-e dam, the next of kin with the right to demand retribution, Mojtaba can argue that he also has the right to set it aside if the state’s survival requires it. That is how he can ask the regime’s core base to accept restraint, and present it not as retreat, but as obedience to a higher obligation.

What stepping back would mean in practice

If Mojtaba chooses regime survival over confrontation, the price will be high. A serious de-escalation would likely mean accepting Trump’s demands, including:

• Ending enrichment as a national project, not just pausing it
• Accepting long-term, enforceable limits on missile range
• Reducing or abandoning the proxy network, not just rebranding it
• Ending the policy of confrontation with Israel

For Mojtaba, accepting these would not just be a policy shift. It would mean dismantling his father’s 37-year legacy in a single afternoon.

Without real and verifiable change in these areas, the US and Israel would have little reason to stop.

Even then, a deal would not solve the regime’s deeper problem at home. Legitimacy inside Iranian society is badly damaged, especially after the January massacre, and the state is widely seen as corrupt, incompetent, and violent. A ceasefire might stop the bombs, but it would not stop the political decay.

Where this leaves the Islamic Republic

If Mojtaba keeps the hard line while the world’s most powerful military is striking alongside the region’s most capable one, the window for a new leader to consolidate may be measured in days, not months.

If he chooses a climbdown, the war may stop, but the inheritance remains bleak. He would be taking ownership of painful concessions that undo much of his father’s legacy, while inheriting a state that is badly broken. The Islamic Republic is facing something close to a failed-state reality: an economy in severe distress, hollowed-out institutions, and public hostility so high that normal governance becomes hard to sustain. A halt in attacks would not restore capacity, trust, or authority.

Either way, Mojtaba Khamenei begins in the ruins of his father’s world. The Islamic Republic’s options are all expensive, its survival is no longer guaranteed, and for the first time in forty years, time is the one thing Tehran cannot buy.

Admiral Brad Cooper, commander of US Central Command, on Tuesday said Operation Epic Fury is achieving unprecedented success less than 100 hours into execution, with US and Israeli forces targeting Iran’s ballistic missiles, drones, naval vessels, and command infrastructure.

“By order of the President of the United States and the Secretary of War, our military in the Middle East is undertaking an unprecedented operation to eliminate Iran’s ability to threaten Americans, as they’ve been doing for nearly half a century…More than 50,000 troops, 200 fighters, two aircraft carriers and bombers from the United States are participating in this operation, and more capability is on the way. These forces bring a massive amount of firepower, representing the largest buildup by the US in the Middle East in a generation," Admiral Cooper said in a video message.

“Now we’re less than 100 hours into this operation, and we’ve already struck nearly 2,000 targets with more than 2,000 munitions. We have severely degraded Iran’s air defenses and destroyed hundreds of Iran’s ballistic missiles, launchers and drones. Our B-2 bombers and B-1 bombers have executed uncontested surgical strikes against multiple missile facilities deep inside Iran…We are also sinking the Iranian Navy. Thus far, we’ve destroyed 17 Iranian ships, including the most operational Iranian submarine that now has a hole in its side," he added.

Cooper said the campaign represents the largest US military buildup in the Middle East in a generation.

“To be clear, Iran is indiscriminately targeting civilians as they launch these missiles and drones…We are seeing Iran’s ability to hit us and our partners is declining, while our combat power, on the other hand, is building. My overall operational assessment is that we are ahead of our game plan," Cooper added.

House Speaker Mike Johnson on Tuesday called on the people of Iran to take advantage of what he described as a historic opportunity for freedom, emphasizing US support for the Iranian people while stressing that America will not engage in nation-building.

“It’s time for the people of Iran to step up and seize this moment of opportunity for them, the one that they have long awaited to have freedom there. We are encouraging that. We’re hopeful for that. I think our NATO allies and our other allies around the world are watching with great anticipation and hope. I suspect that the entire world will reach out a hand of encouragement and assistance as is needed to help them," Johnson said.

“We have no ability to get into the nation building business. We don’t do that. We’re not the world’s policeman. America has enough trouble of our own. But I think this is a great development for the people there to be able to stand on their own two feet and seize this moment of opportunity. We’re certainly hopeful and prayerful that they will and that no other innocent people are killed," he added.

"Iran, by some estimates, murdered tens of thousands of their own citizens just within the last several weeks. Those people are now deceased. There are still dangerous folks there, but there are more good people. There are more people who desire to have freedom and liberty, and there are terrorists and tyrants in the world. I’m grateful for that this is their moment to step up, and I hope they will," Johnson said.

Democratic Senator Richard Blumenthal said on Tuesday he is increasingly concerned that the United States may deploy boots on the ground in Iran following a closed-door congressional briefing on the administration’s plans.

“I am more fearful than ever after this briefing that we may be putting boots on the ground and that troops from the United States may be necessary to accomplish objectives that the administration seems to have,” Blumenthal said.

“But I also am no more clear on what the priorities are going to be of the administration going forward, whether it is destroying the nuclear capacity of Iran or simply the missiles or regime change or stopping terrorist activities, and I think the administration owes it to the American people to have briefings, not just for members of Congress, but for the American public. Nothing here should have been classified. It should be available to the American people,” he added.