German lawmaker urges terror listing of Iran Guards
German lawmaker Norbert Rottgen said on Thursday that designating Iran’s Revolutionary Guards as a terrorist group would have a concrete impact and raise pressure on Tehran.
“The terror listing of the Revolutionary Guards would have a concrete effect,” Rottgen said in a post on X.
He said the move would hit what he called the elites of the repression apparatus both financially and politically and would add pressure on a regime that he said now relies only on violence.
Uncertainty over Iran’s direction deepened on Wednesday as unrest at home coincided with mixed signals across the region, with military movements and diplomatic steps raising the risk of a broader conflict.
US officials said Washington began withdrawing some personnel from military facilities in the region, describing the move as a precaution as tensions rose.
The drawdowns came as the United States weighed its response to unrest inside Iran and after repeated warnings from Tehran that any US strike would be met with retaliation against American bases in neighboring countries.
US President Donald Trump struck an ambivalent tone, telling reporters he was monitoring the situation closely and suggesting reports of killings inside Iran were easing. He said he had received what he described as “a very good statement” from Iran, while stopping short of ruling out military action.
Privately, officials and diplomats from several countries said they remained concerned that US intervention was still possible, with some suggesting there was a limited window in which action could occur.
Regional governments, including Qatar, confirmed adjustments tied to heightened tensions, while Britain also reported precautionary measures involving its personnel.
Britain said it had closed its embassy in Tehran, citing security concerns, adding to signs of diplomatic retrenchment as foreign governments reassessed their presence in Iran amid the unrest.
Inside Iran, the leadership has sought to project control in what officials describe as the most serious unrest in decades. Iranian authorities have blamed foreign enemies, particularly Israel and the United States, for fueling violence, while insisting calm has returned after what they describe as a brief but intense period.
In a combative television interview with Fox News, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi rejected allegations that Iranian security forces carried out mass killings of protesters. He said the violence stemmed from clashes with what he called foreign-backed “terrorist elements,” and portrayed the unrest as part of a wider conflict imposed on Iran.
“There was fighting between our security forces and terrorist elements,” Araghchi said, dismissing accounts of widespread repression as misinformation and accusing Israel of trying to draw the United States into war.
Human rights groups outside Iran have reported high casualty figures, while an internet blackout has restricted independent verification on the ground. The information gap has fueled uncertainty, with competing narratives from Iranian officials, foreign governments and activists.
Iran has also intensified contacts with regional states in recent days, officials said. Tehran has urged neighboring countries to prevent any US military action, warning that American bases in the region would be at risk if Iran were attacked. Direct communication between Iranian and US officials remains suspended, they added.
Despite the scale of the unrest and mounting external pressure, Western officials have said Iran’s security apparatus appears intact and the government does not look on the brink of collapse. Iranian state media has broadcast images of funerals and rallies that it presented as evidence of continued public support for the Islamic Republic.
New Zealand said on Thursday it was appalled by what it described as an escalation of violence and repression in Iran.
“New Zealand is appalled by the escalation of violence and repression in Iran,” Foreign Minister Winston Peters said in a post on X.
He said the government condemned what it called a brutal crackdown by Iranian security forces, including the killing of protesters, and said Iranians had the right to peaceful protest and freedom of expression.
Peters said New Zealand had raised its concerns directly with the Iranian embassy in Wellington and would continue to do so.
Iran’s judiciary said on Thursday that Erfan Soltani, a protester detained earlier this month, has not been sentenced to death, rejecting earlier claims by his family that such a ruling had been issued.
The judiciary said Soltani is being held at the central penitentiary in the city of Karaj and has been formally charged with “collusion against internal security” and “propaganda activities against the system,” according to state media.
It added that no death sentence has been issued and that capital punishment does not apply to those charges under Iranian law.
Iran’s judiciary said on Thursday that Erfan Soltani, a protester detained earlier this month, has not been sentenced to death, rejecting earlier claims by his family that such a ruling had been issued.
The judiciary said Soltani is being held at the central penitentiary in the city of Karaj and has been formally charged with “collusion against internal security” and “propaganda activities against the system,” according to state media.
It added that no death sentence has been issued and that capital punishment does not apply to those charges under Iranian law.
The judiciary said that if the charges are upheld by prosecutors and a court issues a legal ruling, the punishment by law would be imprisonment.
Soltani’s family had previously said that he had been sentenced to death, raising concerns among activists amid a broader crackdown on protesters following unrest across the country.
Iran has in past protest-related cases brought more serious charges such as moharebeh – commonly translated as “waging war against God” – which under the Islamic Republic’s penal code can carry the death penalty.
During earlier waves of unrest, rights groups and analysts said Iranian authorities used capital cases and charges including moharebeh and “corruption on earth” against some detainees, drawing international criticism over due process.
Any US military action against Iran risks falling short if it mirrors past “one-off” strikes without sustained political and economic pressure, analysts warned during an Iran International Insight town hall on Wednesday amid mounting fears of a US attack.
US President Donald Trump signaled on Tuesday that he was leaning toward a military strike on Iran when he said Iranian protesters should keep up the demonstrations and that “HELP IS ON ITS WAY.”
At least 12,000 people have been killed in Iran in the largest killing in the country's contemporary history, much of it carried out on January 8-9 during an ongoing internet shutdown, senior government and security sources told Iran International.
Joel Rayburn, a senior fellow at the Hudson Institute, and Robert Satloff, the Executive Director of the Washington Institute, believe that limited military action by the United States may briefly punish Tehran's abuses but is unlikely to stop violence unless it is followed by a broader campaign.
“In April 2017, the president responded to Bashar al Assad's use of chemical weapons by doing airstrikes. We did not follow that up with a maximum pressure campaign or a political campaign,” Rayburn said. “One year later, he used them again.”
Rayburn argued that the lesson from Syria was clear: “We can’t do this just by one-off military strikes. They have the impact, but we have to have a campaign and we have to use all the tools at our disposal.”
“We can’t just do something and move on,” he said. “If the objective is to stop the killing, then the tools have to stay in place until that objective is met.”
Satloff said he does not like the notion of a strike. "A strike sounds like something that you do and then you’re done and that you can then turn to whatever next international problem is on your agenda.”
He said the current moment presents a more direct test for the Trump administration. “Will the president’s actions bring an end to the carnage? That’s the key right now.”
Trump said on Wednesday he had been informed that the killing in Iran has stopped and Tehran would not execute any of the protesters.
Satloff cautioned against reading too much into claims that violence inside Iran may have eased.
“If indeed the killing has stopped… terrific,” Satloff said during the town hall moderated by Behnam Ben Taleblu, the senior director of the Iran Program at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD).
“But if the killing continues tomorrow, the day after, then that tweet will mean nothing and the president will know it.”
He said the 2017 strikes on Syria imposed a cost but did not fundamentally change the regime’s behavior until they were paired later with broader sanctions and diplomatic isolation.
“It was only after the second time that the US government and our allies finally said… we have to have a campaign,” Rayburn said.
Joel Rayburn, a senior fellow at the Hudson Institute
Satloff argued that Iran presents a different but related challenge, because Trump has explicitly framed his objective as stopping the killing of civilians.
“This is somewhat different than partial punishment and partial deterrence,” he said, adding that Iran now represents “a much more visible, tangible test.”
Beyond strikes: cyber, communications
Both speakers stressed that military force is only one option, and not necessarily the first one Washington should use.
Satloff argued the US should focus on “leveling the playing field” between protesters and the Iranian security apparatus.
“Let’s find some way to shut down their communications so that they can’t talk to themselves and orchestrate this nationwide crackdown,” he said. “We have ways of shutting down the communication system employed by the regime.”
Rayburn said the administration could immediately escalate non-military pressure by fully restoring what he described as the president’s early-term directive to reimpose maximum pressure on Iran.
“There is no reason not to be fully implementing the maximum pressure campaign,” he said. “That hasn’t been fully implemented yet. It can be.”
Rayburn added that Iran is now “in an even more brittle state” than during Trump’s first term.
“They are not resilient to that kind of pressure,” he said. “I think the Iranian regime wouldn’t survive that.”
'Narrow targets, civilian risks, and credibility'
While emphasizing non-kinetic options, Satloff outlined what he would recommend if military action became unavoidable.
If violence continued, he said, US action should be tightly focused on security forces responsible for repression.
“I would target very specifically the barracks and the facilities of the IRGC and the Basij,” Satloff said, while warning that civilian casualties could quickly undermine US credibility.
Robert Satloff, the Executive Director of the Washington Institute
“I think we have to be very careful to avoid civilians,” he said, noting that past strikes in the region showed how quickly public perception can turn when non-combatants are killed.
The United States launched airstrikes against three Iranian nuclear facilities in June in the middle of a 12-day war between Iran and Israel.
The Israeli strikes began after Tehran ignored a 60-day deadline set by President Trump to reach a deal over its disputed nuclear program.
