Iran International
Iraq’s parliamentary election on Tuesday unfolded under the shadow of foreign influence from the United States and Iran which have for two decades vied over the future of the war-battered Arab nation.
Less than half of eligible voters reportedly registered, raising doubts that turnout will reach even 50%. Public disillusionment has depressed participation since 2005, with only two exceptions: the first post-Saddam vote that year and the 2015 election, when turnout neared 80%.
Iranian media outlets, especially those aligned with Tehran’s political factions, have been following the buildup intensely.
Conservative papers and those close to state institutions cast the vote as a measure of Iran’s remaining leverage in Baghdad.
But reform-leaning Rouydad24 cautioned that while Tehran and Washington view the election through a geopolitical lens, Iraqi voters are focused on preserving “fragile stability and economic growth,” a subtle critique of both countries’ roles.
‘Weary people’
Truska Sadeghi, a journalist monitoring the election from Paris, described the November 11 vote as “a fateful test for a country caught between crises ranging from the legitimacy of its governments to the influence of foreign powers.”
Iraqis, she said, have grown weary of “repetitive and ineffective political maneuvers,” while shifting coalitions and Iran’s declining sway in the wider “axis of resistance” have made Baghdad Tehran’s most critical arena.
The United States has repeatedly warned Iran in recent months against meddling in Iraq’s political process, urging Baghdad to distance itself from Tehran.
Iran’s foreign ministry on Monday spoke against what it deemed to be "unacceptable” foreign interference. Iraq’s foreign ministry called the statement “provocative” and urged Tehran not to get involved in the country’s internal affairs.
Despite its diminishing regional clout, Iran remains a central player in the Iraq.
Tehran-aligned groups such as Hashd al-Sha’bi and various Kata’ib factions have rebranded themselves as civilian organizations, even as their armed presence in Baghdad remains visible.
‘Stability’
Analysts including Sadeghi and Frankfurt-based Ali Sadrzadeh argue that Iran-linked networks still wield significant political and economic leverage.
Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps-Quds Force Commander Esmail Qaani and other senior officers continue to shuttle between Iranian and Iraqi cities, meeting aligned factions to ensure “Iraq’s stability.”
A key test for the next government will be whether it can assert authority over pro-Iranian groups like Hashd al-Sha’bi, which has long sought to position itself as a parallel defense institution.
“It’s a battle over whether Iraq achieves genuine political independence or remains tethered to foreign powers,” Sadeghi said.
Whatever the result, she added, Iraq’s next government will face the same core tasks: bringing armed groups under state control, restoring public trust through credible reforms, and recalibrating relations with Iran, the United States and regional partners.
