Despite the Gaza ceasefire, Iran is expected to maintain its regional strategy and support for its Palestinian ally Hamas, a think tank closely affiliated with the Israeli military said in a report on Monday.
In its latest assessment, the Meir Amit Intelligence and Terrorism Information Center (ITIC) said the end of hostilities in Gaza will not significantly alter Tehran’s policy.
Iran remains committed to expanding its influence in the Palestinian territories, particularly through logistical and financial support to Hamas and other factions operating in both Gaza and the West Bank, the think tank affiliated with the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) said.
“Tehran views Hamas’s continued presence in these areas as a potential avenue to rebuild its capabilities and preserve Iranian leverage, even amid mounting operational constraints,” the report said.
Since Hamas’s October 7, 2023 attack on Israel — in which about 1,200 Israelis were killed and more than 200 taken hostage and dragged into Gaza — Iran’s regional allies, including Hamas, Lebanon’s Hezbollah, and Yemen’s Houthis, have suffered major blows in fighting.
Still, the ITIC report says Iran is unlikely to alter its policy of supporting and sustaining proxy networks across the region, particularly the so-called “Axis of Resistance.”
“The Houthis are capitalizing on the Gaza ceasefire to enhance their weapons stockpile and offensive capabilities, further entrenching Iran’s influence in the Arabian Peninsula,” the report said.
Iranian officials have publicly supported the ceasefire but emphasized that the decision was made independently by Hamas.
Tehran declined to participate in the recent peace summit in Sharm al-Sheikh, Egypt, citing ongoing threats and sanctions against Iran.
Analysts believe Iran is far more comfortable operating in the shadows and through proxies, preferring to stay in the background and avoid direct conflict.
