Turkey’s accelerating move to replace Russian and Iranian pipeline gas with domestic production and US liquefied natural gas (LNG) could shrink Tehran’s last major European export market, Reuters reported on Wednesday.
According to the analysis, written by Can Sezer, Ankara could meet more than half of its gas demand by 2028 through expanded production and LNG imports, sharply reducing the need for pipeline supplies from Iran and Russia.
US President Donald Trump has urged NATO ally Turkey to scale back energy ties with both countries, and the shift aligns with Washington’s push to isolate Moscow and Tehran from global energy markets.
Iran currently supplies Turkey with around 10 billion cubic meters (bcm) of gas annually under a contract due to expire in mid-2026.
The analysis said Ankara is unlikely to renew it under the same terms as it seeks greater flexibility and diversification.
The move comes as Turkey’s energy ministry boosts domestic gas output and signs multibillion-dollar deals to import LNG from the United States and Algeria.
Reuters calculations suggest Turkey’s domestic production and contracted LNG imports will exceed 26 bcm a year by 2028 -- compared with 15 bcm in 2025 -- enough to cover more than half of its estimated 53 bcm annual gas demand.
The remaining import gap of 26 bcm would be far below the 41 bcm currently contracted from Russia, Iran, and Azerbaijan combined.
Iran, already facing renewed UN and Western sanctions over its nuclear program and military activities, could see one of its most reliable export markets eroded as Turkey repositions itself as a regional gas hub, according to Sezer.
Ankara has also expanded its re-export capacity, recently signing supply deals with Hungary and Romania through its state-owned energy company BOTAS.
While Turkey has maintained that it will continue sourcing gas from all available suppliers, including Iran and Russia, its long-term strategy increasingly favors flexible LNG purchases over fixed pipeline contracts.
