Tehran pins hopes on Russia and China to blunt sanctions impact

“Australia supports the decision of France, Germany and the UK (the E3) to trigger the ‘snapback’ mechanism under UN Security Council Resolution 2231,” a Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade spokesperson told Iran International.

The spokesperson said Iran must be held accountable for its “longstanding non-performance” of nuclear commitments under the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). Australia called on Iran to return to talks and reach a diplomatic solution “which provides assurances that it can never develop a nuclear weapon.”

Canberra said it is obliged under international law to implement Security Council sanctions and will do so through amendments to domestic regulations, which may take time.

New Zealand’s foreign ministry said it was “deeply concerned” about Iran’s non-compliance and that work was underway on regulatory changes.

“As a UN Member State, New Zealand is bound to implement sanctions imposed by the UNSC,” the ministry said in a statement. “We advise New Zealanders to apply heightened due diligence in reviewing any ongoing transactions during this interim period.”

The United Nations sanctions, reimposed on Sept. 28, include restrictions on Iran’s nuclear and military activities, asset freezes on designated entities, and a duty to “exercise vigilance” when doing business with Iran.

Western powers say Iran left no choice

France, Germany and the United Kingdom said in a joint statement the reimposition of sanctions was unavoidable after Iran’s “persistent breaches” of the 2015 nuclear deal, citing enriched uranium stockpiles 48 times above agreed limits.

German Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul said the sanctions were a “serious mistake” by Tehran’s rulers that harmed ordinary Iranians, but added diplomacy was still possible. “Iran must never come into possession of a nuclear weapon,” he told Funke media group, urging a “negotiated solution to resolve this issue permanently.”

The European Union also reinstated sweeping restrictions this week on Iran’s oil, banking, transport and trade sectors. Tehran has rejected the sanctions as illegal and said all restrictions under Resolution 2231 must expire on October 18.

The initiative was first floated two days after Israel’s June airstrikes exposed glaring flaws in Iran’s intelligence apparatus.

Tehran has yet to explain how Israeli operatives were able to track senior commanders and nuclear scientists inside the country.

Instead of grappling with these failures, lawmakers have introduced a 19-point bill that broadens state control across society.

The draft bill criminalizes cooperation with foreign media and requires prior approval from intelligence agencies before analysts, commentators or academics can give interviews to outlets abroad.

It follows other measures widely criticized at home as naïve and ineffective, from the mass deportation of Afghans to arbitrary arrests and social media bans.

‘Don’t share photos’

Under the proposed law, anyone accused of undermining Iran’s territorial integrity could face prison terms of up to 30 years, asset confiscation and media bans.

Even transmitting photos or videos to Persian or English-language outlets outside Iran would be punishable by prison.

The bill also targets cultural production, declaring films financed by foreign entities—including cultural foundations in Europe and other Persian Gulf countries—illegal.

Many of Iran’s most acclaimed directors have relied on such funding or on cash prizes from international festivals to finance future projects. Authorities frequently dismiss these awards as Western attempts to malign the country, and the bill would formalize that suspicion into law.

Even cooperation with UNESCO’s 2030 Agenda for education and sustainable development could become grounds for imprisonment.

‘Don’t get scholarship’

The legislation further clamps down on academia and civil society.

Scholarships for Iranian students abroad must already be on a list approved by the Ministry of Higher Education, but recipients would now need additional clearance from the Intelligence Ministry.

Employment or commercial activity with foreign entities without prior approval would likewise be criminalized. Offenders could face up to 15 years in prison and be forced to repay double the amount received if the funds originated from foreign embassies or institutions.

The breadth of the proposals highlight the gulf between the declared goal of preventing espionage and the actual measures under debate.

Problem, what problem?

Only one article directly addresses illegal activity: the disclosure of confidential information that could intensify sanctions or obstruct Iran’s circumvention efforts.

Even this is framed less around espionage than around protecting the state’s sanctions-busting networks.

Critics argue the legislation tightens political and cultural control while sidestepping how foreign intelligence continues to penetrate Iran’s security system—offering a solution that does little to address the problem it claims to confront.

The ruling concerns Mohammadreza Mazloumi Aboukheili, 64, a former director of operations at the National Iranian Oil Products Distribution Company, a state-owned firm reporting to Iran’s Ministry of Petroleum.

He had applied for a visa to visit his son in Ontario, but Canadian authorities determined he was inadmissible due to his senior role in "a regime engaged in terrorism and systematic human-rights abuses," according to the court ruling.

Mazloumi had previously visited Canada before Ottawa introduced a 2022 policy targeting high-ranking Iranian officials, the court decision cited by Global News said.

Immigration officials argued his position placed him only two ranks below Iran’s oil minister, undermining his assertion that he was a “middle manager.”

Mazloumi challenged the assessment, but the judge rejected his arguments, saying the government’s decision was reasonable and supported by evidence. The court found “no error” in how the visa officer handled the case, noting the executive knowingly served in a government accused of terrorism and repression.

The case reflects Ottawa’s broader effort to prevent senior Iranian officials from entering Canada.

Almost three years after the policy was introduced, authorities have stopped nearly 200 suspected Islamic Republic figures at the border.

However, deporting those already inside Canada has proven more difficult. Only one suspected official has been removed to Iran, while several others remain in the country due to legal challenges.

Oil revenues play a central role in funding the Iranian state, which Ottawa has accused of supporting groups such as Hezbollah, Hamas and Yemen’s Houthis, and supplying drones to Russia for its war in Ukraine.

Canadian authorities have also accused Tehran of targeting critics abroad, including activists and journalists living in Canada.

Mazloumi did not respond to a request for comment, Global News reported.

The renewed restrictions are biting deep into society, yet they are ultimately the result of Tehran’s own policies, economist Mahdi Ghodsi told Eye for Iran.

“In the past 10 years, the real income of Iranians has been halved. The middle class has become poor and the poor cannot live under these conditions,” he said.

“I consider sanctions as the effect of bad management, bad policy and bad governance. If you think about the benefits of your own people, you don’t impose policies that attract sanctions,” he added.

Iranians themselves are pointing the finger at their leaders, analyst Holly Dagres said.

“You’re hearing chants from retirees, you’re hearing labor unions saying enough — stop blaming sanctions and inflation. This is all on you. The West is not the problem here. You’re the problem,” said Dagres, a fellow at the The Washington Institute think tank.

Currency tank

The rial has collapsed to 1,170,000 to the US dollar — or 117,000 tomans on the free market — the weakest in Iran's history.

Iran’s Central Bank Governor blamed the plunge on an “enemy’s psychological war,” but for families, it has meant soaring costs for food, rent, and medicine. The broad scope of the new sanctions, covering oil, banking and dual-use goods, is already eroding purchasing power across the country.

The volatility is also taking a psychological toll.

“People are constantly checking the exchange rate, they’re constantly checking the gold rate,” Dagres said. “It’s like a stock market for them, because they know that tomorrow their bread or their rent or their medicine could cost more.”

The so-called snapback of United Nations sanctions was welcomed on October 1 by the foreign ministers of the G7 countries, joined by the EU’s High Representative.

Tehran was accused of failing to meet its nuclear obligations, and urged to return to direct talks with Washington. The measures restore sweeping restrictions first imposed between 2006 and 2010, which had been lifted under the 2015 nuclear deal.

The United States, European Union, and allies including Canada and Japan have also moved to reimpose their own measures.

Research highlights how devastating such measures have been. Sanctions between 2012 and 2019 shrank Iran’s middle class by up to 28 percentage points compared with a no-sanctions scenario, according to a study by Mohammad Reza Farzanegan of Philipps-Universität Marburg and Nader Habibi of Brandeis University, published in the European Journal of Political Economy.

Sanctions “laid waste” to the very group that once drove reform and moderation in Iran, the authors wrote in an op-ed published by Al Jazeera.

War fears

The sanctions appear to deepen an impasse that may culminate in more war.

"The specter of war is still on Iran. Iranian airspace is still under control of Israel and the United States, Ghodsi said. "Either the Iranian government will try to resolve all these issues or the tensions will escalate soon."

Dagres said average Iranians are fearful of another war and its attendant death and displacement, but Tehran's hard line hard line may augur another conflict.

"To me, it seems like things are not changing in the view of the Islamic Republic. And the way that things are going, it does look like a path to confrontation."

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“The worst way of living is life in suspense,” journalist Ehsan Mohammadi wrote on X, "It weighs down the human psyche.”

The business daily Donya-ye-Eqtesad reports basic food requirments now account for 63 percent of spending for those on the minimum wage, raising fears of a food security crisis. Lawmaker Soleiman Es’haghi lamented recently that many households can no longer afford rice, chicken or meat.

Hardliners, however, downplay the threat. The Kayhan daily, overseen by the Supreme Leader’s office, argued sanctions are “not as frightening as the West tries to scare Iran with,” calling their effects mostly psychological.

Economic Hardship

The line drew fire from reformists. Vocal academic Sadegh Zibakalam accused the opposite camp of being detached from reality in a sarcastic post on X.

“The revolutionaries are right: the return of sanctions is nothing new,” he wrote, “but the dollar, the rial and—more importantly—those willful prices do not understand this simple point that the hardliners correctly make.”

Prominent politician Mostafa Tajzadeh blamed the highest office in the land in a statement from Evin Prison following the punishing US-Israeli war in June.

He faulted Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's stated “neither war nor peace” mantra as a failure on both scores, saying the policy drift now has Iranians sliding into poverty.

The rial has broken record lows several times since the return of UN sanctions on September 28, losing 15 percent of its value in less than a week.

Inflation, already near 45 percent, may exceed 90 percent, Tehran’s Chamber of Commerce warned this week, with growth turning negative and unemployment climbing into double digits.

Endless Suffering

Moderate journalist Akbar Montajabi captured the sense of collapse: “With the activation of the snapback mechanism and the return of sanctions, the shot has been fired not at diplomacy but at the dinner table of the middle and lower classes.”

Concerns are also rising about medicine shortages and price hikes. Although formally exempt from sanctions, many in the industry say drug procurement becomes inevitably harder with the secondary impact of other restrictions.

“Maybe a few cancers could be treated with nuclear medicine,” a user wrote on X, mocking official claims of medicinal use for the enrichment program. “But the same treatment would have been available without sanctions too—like in Turkey.”

Another user, posting under the name Saeed Pakdel, summed up the national mood: “All Iranians are preoccupied with the question: what will happen now?! The snapback mechanism has been activated. Every day we hear bad news of war and inflation … Result: confusion and endless suffering.”