Postwar uncertainty triggers capital flight, gold rush in Iran

The decision deepens hardship as many residents including seniors, women and those with special needs keenly depend on the services, the Didban Website reported.

Iran is currently grappling with water shortages and widespread power outages amid high summer temperatures, while also dealing with recovery efforts following a 12-day war with Israel and its aftermath.

The reports highlight the urgent needs of people with kidney and prostate problems and note significant issues for parents with small children.

Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian said on Thursday that the water crisis in Tehran may become increasingly dire, and the capital's reservoirs might run out of water by the end of summer.

The government previously considered adding an extra day off during the week or introducing long weekends to reduce demand but ultimately did not pursue the plan.

The Supreme National Security Council (SNSC) is already undergoing structural changes, according to semi-official Fars News, which reported on Friday that former hardline ex-nuclear negotiator Ali Larijani could be appointed as the SNSC’s new chief.

The report also suggested that a new Defense Council may be formed to guide the country’s strategic defense agenda.

Larijani, a longtime conservative figure with moderate tendencies, was closely associated with former president Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani—widely recognized as the architect of pragmatism in Iranian politics.

His return to a senior security role could signal a shift toward a more flexible approach to domestic and foreign policy, though his recent postwar remarks have closely aligned with Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s positions.

Establishment hints at change

Nour News, closely linked to the SNSC, also signaled these impending changes in a July 30 post. More notably, it criticized the state broadcaster for airing interviews with individuals hostile to Western values, warning that such programming “may even lead to undesirable outcomes.”

The call for reform—long associated with Iran’s reformist factions—is now being echoed by conservative figures, reflecting shifting perceptions within the political establishment. Some have warned that failure to adapt after the war could lead to public unrest and new security challenges.

Ayatollah Mohsen Gharavian, a lecturer at the Qom Seminary, said in a July 31 interview with Khabar Online that “the Islamic Republic must revise its mode of governance in light of the war.” He specifically urged an end to government pressure on Iranian women regarding compulsory hijab rules.

He also called for major reforms in both domestic and foreign policy, asserting that Iran’s leadership now recognizes “the tremendous power of patriotism” and is exploring ways to ease the pressure on the weary citizenry.

‘Making up with people’

Ali Akbar Velayati, a former foreign minister and senior advisor to Khamenei, likewise advocated “some social changes to meet public demands,” drawing harsh backlash from ultraconservative media outlets.

Amid rising pressure, President Massoud Pezeshkian withdrew a controversial bill he had previously submitted to parliament that would have further restricted media freedom and access to information.

The conservative daily Farhikhtegan published a July 31 commentary titled “The Next Steps After the War,” urging a deeper understanding of Iran’s sociopolitical conditions to better anticipate future challenges.

While acknowledging Iranian claims of victory, the commentary emphasized credible counterarguments and criticized state television’s complacency.

It called for an assessment of public resilience amid postwar challenges—including energy shortages and the potential return of UN sanctions—which the editorial warned could provoke industrial action or even widespread protests.

Karami calls it an “engineered drought”—a manufactured emergency that lets authorities avoid long-overdue reforms while shifting the financial burden to citizens.

“There is water,” he said. “But it costs the government more to deliver it in the summer—so they shift the burden to the public instead.”

Only 20–30% of Iran’s water shortage, Karami argues, is due to climate change. The rest is policy-driven—and reversible.

But instead of investing in infrastructure or reforming water use, the government relies on fear to suppress demand, while consumer prices remain unchanged.

“If people reduce their consumption just a little, it saves the government a lot of money,” he explained. “The price they pay for water stays the same, but the state spends less.”

The consequences are devastating.

Across the country, families are going days without water. Residents are hoarding bottles, installing rooftop tanks and depending on tanker trucks—some of which deliver polluted or undrinkable supplies.

Satellite imagery obtained by Iran International shows Tehran’s main reservoirs—Amir Kabir, Lar, and Latyan—at historic lows, holding less than 10% of their usable capacity.

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  Tehran reservoirs hit historic lows, satellite images show

Meanwhile, the capital is literally sinking. Over-pumping aquifers has caused parts of Tehran to subside by more than 10 inches a year.

The crisis is fixable, Karami says, yet the system profits from public panic as ordinary Iranians are left to suffer.

“This is not the first time they’ve said Tehran would run out of water in two weeks,” Karami said. “And yet, the water keeps flowing.”

Beyond drought

"The solution is: you have to take part of the water from agriculture and give it to the people. That is very easy," Karami said.

Agriculture, he said, consumes more than 90% of Iran’s freshwater annually, yet contributes just 9-12% of GDP and employs only about 17% of the workforce. In contrast, households use just 4-5%, and industry only 1%.

Despite its relatively small economic footprint, agriculture’s massive water consumption places unsustainable pressure on Iran’s finite freshwater supplies.

But Karami says this isn’t conventional agriculture but in large part state-guided enterprise aimed at provisioning Iran's sprawling military.

"They’re using all water resources for agriculture to make enough food for the soldiers," he said.

Wells proliferation

The numbers tell the story: Iran’s cultivated land has more than doubled since 1979. Deep wells have exploded from 40,000 to over one million. Roughly 40% of agricultural water is wasted in transport or lost to outdated irrigation methods.

Karami says just a 5% cut in agricultural water use would free up enough water—4 to 5 billion cubic meters—to supply Iran’s entire urban population.

He believes efficiency is possible: through irrigation upgrades, reduced waste, and mechanizing half of Iran’s farmland. But he doubts the political will exists to pursue it.

“We’re the first in the world for soil erosion. First in desertification,” Karami warned.

"The main legacy of the Islamic Republic won’t just be executions or war. It will be this: environmental collapse."

Despite the scale of the suffering, Karami doubts the current crisis will trigger mass protests. He believes the authorities will likely resolve the immediate shortages in the coming weeks—just enough to defuse tension and avoid unrest.

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“From late March to early August, Tehran had only six clean-air days,” the agency said. Other days ranged from moderate to very unhealthy, with at least three classified as hazardous.

The report comes as concerns grow over the government’s energy strategy and its environmental impact. In recent weeks, Iranian officials have confirmed that fuel oil, which is one of the most polluting fuels available, is once again being widely used to generate electricity amid power shortages.

“All power plants across the country used fuel oil at full capacity last year,” Saeed Tavakoli, managing director of the National Iranian Gas Company, said this week. He said the practice continued despite public claims that the administration prioritized environmental protection.

Tejarat News, an economic daily, criticized the government for quietly resuming the use of mazut, a low-grade fuel, after ordering a temporary halt in several cities last winter. “Fuel oil burning is no longer an emergency fix. It has become a systemic policy reflecting the collapse of energy planning,” it wrote in an editorial this week.

Pollution tied to tens of thousands of deaths nationwide

In May, Health Minister Mohammad Reza Zafarghandi said Iran sees an estimated 50,000 deaths annually linked to air pollution. “Some countries have solved this issue, but we still have a long way to go,” he said.

Experts say the crisis is worsened by fragmented authority and limited enforcement. Though 23 government bodies have mandates to reduce pollution, analysts say most lack the power or resources to implement meaningful change.

“Laws stay on paper, and there is neither enough funding nor executive power to carry them out,” Mohammadreza Tavakkolian, an urban planning expert, told state media on Friday.

Calls to ban old vehicles, invest in cleaner energy, and empower a central environmental authority have so far gone unanswered. Critics warn that without systemic change, Tehran and other major cities will continue to suffer both in air quality and human lives.

"In Tehran, if we cannot manage and people do not cooperate in controlling consumption, there won't be any water in reservoirs by September or October,” Pezeshkian said in a speech in the Western city of Zanjan.

The government had previously considered adding an extra day off during the week or introducing long weekends to reduce demand, but ultimately did not pursue those plans.

Iran is currently grappling with water shortages and widespread power outages amid high summer temperatures, while also dealing with recovery efforts following the 12-day war with Israel and its aftermath.

Officials in Tehran blame the country’s worst water crisis in living memory on drought and excessive public consumption.

The US State Department took aim at Tehran over the water crisis on its Persian language account on X on Tuesday, describing it as consequences of corruption and mismanagement.

Pezeshkian said his government would persevere in the face of adversity.

“Since we took over the government, troubles keep pouring in; one ends, another begins. Yet, we stand firm and will stay until the end,” Pezeshkian said.

“Despite these hardships, the enthusiasm sparked among the people is a great asset and must be preserved."