Iranian MP warns against trusting ceasefire with Israel

Iran’s highly enriched uranium stockpile was relocated from its key Fordow facility ahead of last weekend’s US airstrikes, according to preliminary intelligence assessments shared with European capitals, the Financial Times reported on Friday.

The move, if confirmed, would suggest that Iran retained much of its 408kg stockpile of uranium enriched to 60% purity — close to weapons-grade — despite US President Donald Trump’s assertion that the strikes had “obliterated” Iran’s nuclear program.

EU officials cited by the FT said Iran’s stockpile was likely distributed across multiple sites and not concentrated at Fordow at the time of the attack. One early intelligence report indicated “extensive damages, but not full structural destruction” at the underground Fordow facility near Qom.

The US has not provided definitive intelligence to European allies on the current status of Iran’s nuclear capabilities, and Washington’s future diplomatic direction remains unclear, EU officials told the FT.

Talks between European ministers and Iranian officials had taken place just before the strikes, but follow-up diplomacy is stalled. “We’re in a volatile place where the E3 is waiting on the US, who appear to themselves be waiting on the Israelis,” one source said.

“All unauthorized foreigners must exit the country,” the national police command was instructed, according to Iranian state media.

“Any home or property rented to Afghans will have its lease annulled and the property sealed and confiscated,” Border police chief Brigadier General Ahmad-Ali Goudarzi warned.

Afghans targeted in phone seizures after ceasefire

The directive follows a wider security sweep across Iran, with Afghan migrants increasingly targeted for alleged ties to Israel.

According to Afghanistan International, Iranian police in multiple cities have been confiscating Afghan migrants’ mobile phones, claiming suspicion of “communication with Israel.”

Eyewitnesses told Afghanistan International that plainclothes and uniformed officers have raided workplaces and migrant housing, issuing receipts for seized phones and telling migrants they could retrieve them after weeks.

Migrants, even those with valid residency, reported being stopped at checkpoints or unable to travel to work out of fear of arrest.

Hundreds detained, mass deportations underway

Iran has arrested around 700 people on suspicion of collaborating with Israel in recent weeks. State media has broadcast forced confessions, including from two individuals identified as Afghan nationals from Badakhshan. The circumstances of the confessions remain unclear.

Tehran’s provincial governor, Mohammad Sadegh Motamedian, said arrests and deportations of Afghan migrants have increased three to fourfold. Taliban officials in Herat said over 30,000 Afghans were deported or returned voluntarily on a single day this week.

Taliban authorities have warned of a looming humanitarian crisis in western Afghanistan due to the rapid influx.

From June 1 to 20, China imported over 1.8 million barrels per day (bpd) of Iranian crude — the highest level recorded by ship-tracking firm Vortexa. Kpler, another data firm, estimated Iran’s June oil and condensate exports to China at 1.46 million bpd as of June 27, up from around one million in May.

The rise reflects a surge in Iranian oil shipments in May, when loadings reached a multi-year high of 1.83 million bpd, according to Kpler. Since Iranian crude typically takes several weeks to reach China, much of that volume arrived in June.

“Iranian shipments rose sharply before the recent conflict in the region, and China’s independent refineries increased demand for discounted barrels,” said Xu Muyu, senior analyst at Kpler.

Analysts said the June surge may reflect improved demand and shipping trends, while a possible easing of US sanctions enforcement could support future Chinese buying, according to Reuters. Trump said this week that Washington’s “maximum pressure” campaign remains official policy, but signaled a potential shift, saying China “can now buy Iranian oil.”

Despite the remark, all US sanctions on Iranian oil remain legally in place, and no formal change has been announced. Industry analysts say the market impact may be limited by Iran’s constrained production and export capacity.

Prices for Iranian Light crude have also narrowed relative to benchmark Brent, with discounts tightening to around $2 per barrel, down from earlier levels of $3.30 to $3.50, traders said. The shift came amid concerns over shipping risks in the Strait of Hormuz following US strikes on Iranian nuclear sites. ICE Brent crude was trading at $68 per barrel on Friday.

Constraints on future growth remain

While shipments have increased, Iran’s ability to sustain higher export levels is in doubt. A confidential Oil Ministry report, seen by Iran International, suggests Iran cannot significantly boost exports even if sanctions were fully lifted.

The report, citing Kpler data, said Iran averaged 1.4 million bpd in oil and condensate exports to China in the first half of 2025 — a 12 percent drop from last year. Structural issues, including aging oil fields, rising domestic consumption, and low investment, are limiting capacity.

“Even if all US sanctions were lifted, Iran’s daily oil exports probably couldn’t exceed 1.7 million bpd,” said Homayoun Falakshahi, a senior energy analyst.

Iran’s floating storage — unsold oil held at sea — has reportedly risen to 40 million barrels, reflecting difficulties in clearing inventory. Meanwhile, small Chinese “teapot” refineries remain Iran’s main buyers, but rely on deep discounts and face growing financial pressure.

Iranian oil exports to China surged in June, reaching record highs as shipments accelerated and independent Chinese refineries stepped up purchases, Reuters reported on Friday.

From June 1 to 20, China imported over 1.8 million barrels per day (bpd) of Iranian crude — the highest level recorded by ship-tracking firm Vortexa. Kpler, another data firm, estimated Iran’s June oil and condensate exports to China at 1.46 million bpd as of June 27, up from around one million in May.

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Iran relied heavily on its missile capabilities during the recent conflict with Israel but faced shortcomings in other areas of defense, a member of parliament’s national security commission said on Friday.

“Our military strength was based on missile power, but there were weaknesses in other defense sectors,” Mohammad-Mehdi Shahriari said.

He cautioned against exaggerating Iran’s missile achievements. “We should not overstate the missile success and ignore the deficiencies,” he said.