A new Middle East is unfolding – Time analysis

Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei faces an increasingly isolated position as Israeli air strikes have killed several of his top military advisers, including key Revolutionary Guards commanders, Reuters said in an analysis on Tuesday.

Citing five people familiar with his decision-making process, the article said the losses create dangerous gaps in Iran’s decision-making and raise the risk of strategic miscalculations amid escalating tensions with Israel.

The strikes have targeted senior figures such as Revolutionary Guards commander Hossein Salami and IRGC aerospace chief Amir Ali Hajizadeh, undermining the inner circle that advises the 86-year-old leader on defense and security.

Physicist and weapons expert David Albright said on Monday that Israeli attacks had stopped Iran's nuclear program "cold" in the short term and delayed its ability to potentially build a nuclear weapon.

"The strikes have lengthened the timeline to build the bomb," Albright, the founder of the non-governmental Institute for Science and International Security told the PBS Newshour.

"In the short term, they've really stopped the program cold and started to break up or destroy key parts of it, the parts that you need in order to build the bomb itself," he added. "On the weaponization side, they're lengthening the time frame to build the bomb and undoing the progress Iran has been making,"

Albright called the lack of apparent damage to the underground Fordow site "perplexing."

"On the weapons-grade uranium side, they really haven't finished the job at all. They have not destroyed Fordow or even made it inoperative."

According to Iran’s Ministry of Petroleum, Israeli missiles hit a gas sweetening unit at Phase 14 of the South Pars gas field and the vast Fajr Jam gas processing complex—both in southern Iran—as well as three major fuel storage depots in Tehran.

South Pars accounts for roughly 75% of Iran’s total natural gas output. The damaged facilities alone supply around 10% of the country’s gas consumption.

The full extent of the damage remains unclear, but Iranian media report serious harm to Fajr Jam’s gas intake and processing infrastructure. The plant, with a capacity of 50 million cubic meters per day, may have been forced offline.

The Petroleum Ministry also confirmed that 60% of Phase 14’s 20 million cubic meters-per-day output has been halted.

Israel had previously warned it would target Iran’s energy sector if Iranian forces struck Israeli civilians.

Tehran fuel depot also hit

Saturday’s strikes extended to Tehran, where Israeli forces reportedly hit the Shahran, Kan and Rey fuel depots—facilities that supply nearly all the capital’s gasoline and diesel.

Tehran’s total storage capacity is estimated at one billion liters, a quarter of Iran’s national fuel reserves.

A confidential Ministry of Petroleum document obtained by Iran International indicated that, as of late March, the country held 1.56 billion liters of gasoline and 1.28 billion liters of diesel in storage—barely enough for ten days of nationwide use.

Tehran alone consumes over 20 million liters of gasoline and 7.5 million liters of diesel per day.

With those storage hubs damaged, the capital now faces a looming fuel crisis, with more Israeli strikes likely on Iran’s energy infrastructure, as Iranian missiles hit targets in Israel.

So far, at least 14 Israeli civilians have been killed in Iranian attacks, while Iran’s health ministry has reported more than 200 killed.

Closing the Strait of Hormuz?

As strikes hit southern gas infrastructure, Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi warned that “spreading the war to the Persian Gulf could drag the entire world into conflict.” He gave no specifics, but lawmaker Esmail Kowsari said Tehran is considering closing the Strait of Hormuz.

Data provided to Iran International by commodity tracker Kpler shows Iran exported 2.2 million barrels of crude oil per day in the first 10 days of this month, and 1.8 million barrels daily on average last month—all through terminals in the Persian Gulf that rely on the strait.

Iran’s only alternative is the Jask terminal, inaugurated on the Sea of Oman in 2020. It was briefly used last October—amid fears of an Israeli strike—but averaged under 200,000 barrels per day and is currently inactive, according to TankerTrackers data.

Because Jask is over 1,000 kilometers from Iran’s main oil fields and has limited capacity, closing the strait would effectively halt Iran’s own oil exports.

The economic fallout wouldn’t stop there: according to Iran’s Ports and Maritime Organization, 80% of Iran’s non-oil trade also passes through the Persian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz.

The partially developed Chabahar port—built with Indian assistance—handles less than 4% of the country’s total cargo throughput.

Israel’s recent airstrikes on Iran, which targeted nuclear sites and key military figures, suggest a dual objective: not only delaying Tehran’s nuclear program but also aiming to destabilize the Islamic Republic establishment, a Reuters analysis said.

The attacks struck Iran’s nuclear facilities at Esfahan and Natanz, missile factories, senior military commanders, and nuclear scientists, dealing a blow to both Iran’s military capabilities and its regional prestige.

Reuters interprets the targeting of senior officials as an attempt to undermine the security apparatus supporting Iran’s leadership.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu directly addressed the Iranian people, urging them to rise up, echoing past Israeli operations that contributed to political shifts in Lebanon and Syria.

However, experts caution that deep-rooted opposition to Israel within Iran and strong internal security forces make overthrowing the government uncertain. Analysts also say Israel lacks the capability to fully dismantle Iran’s nuclear program alone and may rely on prolonged strikes and potential US cooperation.

Israeli airstrikes on Iran’s nuclear infrastructure have inflicted damage on aboveground facilities but have not destroyed the deeply buried centrifuges or the country’s stockpile of near-weapons-grade uranium, the Washington Post reported on Saturday, citing nuclear experts and imagery analysis.

“We struck at the heart of Iran’s nuclear enrichment program,” Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said following the attacks. However, analysts suggest that the core of Iran’s capability—particularly at hardened sites like Fordow and Natanz—remains intact.

“Until I know that Fordow is gone and until I know where that highly enriched uranium is and whether it’s usable, I consider us on the clock,” said Richard Nephew, a former US nuclear negotiator and fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy.

Fordow and Natanz, Iran’s two main enrichment facilities, are fortified deep underground.

Experts cited by the Washington Post said only the US-made Massive Ordnance Penetrator could potentially damage them—an option not available to Israel.

“Israel can damage key Iranian nuclear facilities, but Israel can’t destroy hardened sites like Fordow without US military assistance,” said Kelsey Davenport of the Arms Control Association.

According to satellite imagery reviewed by analysts, the strikes at Natanz knocked out electrical infrastructure and destroyed a small research facility but spared the underground production site.

“They’ve disabled the facility by destroying the power substation, but they haven’t destroyed the facility in a way that would impact Iran’s long-term breakout capacity,” said Decker Eveleth, a missile and nuclear programs researcher.

Strikes were also reported at other locations, including a uranium metal facility in Isfahan, the heavy water reactor in Arak, and a military base near Tabriz. Yet analysts believe Iran’s enriched uranium and key centrifuges remain untouched.

“The centrifuge production hall at Natanz appears undamaged,” said Jeffrey Lewis of the Middlebury Institute, warning that Iran can continue to produce critical components. “So I presume they’re going to keep on making them.”

Former CIA analyst Kenneth Pollack suggested that Israel may pursue other tactics, including cyberattacks or special operations, to degrade Iran’s program further.

Experts also warned that the attacks could also strengthen hardliners in Iran pushing for an overt nuclear weapons capability. “The political momentum will doubtless shift to the bomb advocates,” said Jim Walsh of MIT.