Trump says his confidence fading in Iran nuclear deal

In a statement delivered at the International Atomic Energy Agency’s (IAEA) Board of Governors meeting in Vienna, the EU said Iran’s nuclear trajectory poses serious proliferation risks and accused Tehran of gaining irreversible knowledge through its expanding uranium enrichment program.

“The risk of a nuclear proliferation crisis in the region is increasing as a result of Iran’s escalating nuclear trajectory," the statement read.

“Iran’s unabated nuclear advances over the last five years are of utmost concern,” the EU said. “These actions have no credible civilian justification and carry very significant proliferation-related risks.”

Citing the IAEA’s latest report, the EU said that Iran is now producing more than one Significant Quantity of uranium enriched to 60% each month. A "significant quantity" of highly enriched uranium is defined by the agency as the amount of nuclear material where the possibility of manufacturing a nuclear explosive cannot be excluded.

Iran is currently stockpiling 60-percent enriched uranium, which can be quickly refined to the 90% threshold required for nuclear weapons. Estimates suggest Iran could achieve this level within weeks.

Iranian officials are vocal about weapons, EU warns

The EU further warned that former Iranian officials have made public statements about the country having all capabilities to assemble a nuclear weapon, deepening suspicions about Tehran’s intentions.

"The statements made by former high-level Iranian officials about Iran having all capabilities to assemble a nuclear weapon raise grave concerns about Iran’s intentions,” the EU said without elaborating. “Iran is the only non-nuclear weapon state to produce and accumulate highly enriched uranium in significantly increased amounts.”

In the past few years, Iranian officials have become increasingly explicit about the country’s readiness to produce nuclear weapons and the potential abandonment of its long-standing opposition to them.

Islamic Republic officials say that according to a fatwa (Islamic decree) by the Supreme Leader, the construction of an atomic bomb is not on Tehran's agenda. Experts note such rulings can be reversed.

Kamal Kharrazi, a senior advisor to Ali Khamenei and head of the Strategic Council on Foreign Relations, said on several occasions that Iran “already has the technical capabilities to produce weapons” and would revise its military doctrine if faced with an existential threat.

His remarks in November followed similar statements by former nuclear chief Ali Akbar Salehi, who said Iran has crossed all technological thresholds needed for a bomb.

Parliamentarian Ahmad Bakhshayesh Ardestani explicitly urged the decision-makers to escalate enrichment and begin weapon production, arguing further sanctions are unlikely to change Iran’s strategic calculus.

Calls for weaponization have also emerged on media affiliated with the Revolutionary Guards amid rising regional tensions.

Iran’s cooperation with IAEA

The EU also condemned Iran’s decision to cease implementation of monitoring measures under the 2015 nuclear deal and to remove IAEA surveillance equipment, actions that it said have irreparably disrupted oversight.

“The agency has lost continuity of knowledge in relation to the production and current inventory of centrifuges, rotors and bellows, heavy water and uranium concentrate, which it will not be possible to restore. This has detrimental implications for the agency’s ability to provide assurance of the peaceful nature of Iran’s nuclear program,” the EU said.

While expressing support for a diplomatic solution, the EU urged Iran to reverse course and return to compliance with its nuclear-related commitments.

“We strongly urge Iran to return to the provisional implementation of the Additional Protocol, to ratify it, and to resume implementation of all JCPOA-related verification measures.”

The EU also called on Iran to fully cooperate with the IAEA and expressed support for Director General Rafael Grossi’s efforts to re-establish monitoring access. “Timely and full cooperation with the IAEA remains absolutely crucial,” the EU said.

The statement was endorsed by multiple European countries, including Norway, Ukraine, and North Macedonia.

The EU also requested that the IAEA’s latest report on Iran be made public.

Iran should implement NPT additional protocol, US says

Later in the session, the United States also called on Iran to halt its accelerating nuclear activities, warning that its enrichment of uranium to near weapons-grade levels lacks any credible civilian justification and raises serious proliferation concerns.

US chargé d’affaires Howard Solomon said the IAEA's latest report makes clear that Iran is the only non-nuclear-weapon state enriching uranium to 60%, a level with no valid civilian purpose.

“Iran continues to accelerate its nuclear activities without any credible civilian justification,” Solomon told the Board of Governors. “The Director General’s report is an impartial statement of verifiable facts.”

“Iran now has a clear opportunity to build confidence… by implementing the Additional Protocol, not limiting inspections,” Solomon said.

The Additional Protocol to Iran's Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) safeguards agreement, signed in 2003, granted the UN watchdog broader rights of access and more detailed information on Iran's nuclear activities.

Although Iran never formally ratified it, it implemented the Additional Protocol from 2003 to 2006 before announcing it would no longer do so. In January 2016, Iran resumed provisional implementation of the Protocol in line with the terms of the 2015 nuclear deal.

However, in February 2021, Iran suspended its implementation—at the direction of its parliament— nearly three years after Trump pulled out of the accord and adopted its so-called maximum pressure sanctions.

Washington voiced its commitment to preventing Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons, with Solomon saying that the US is “negotiating in good faith” toward a diplomatic resolution.

“This path forward starts with Iran ceasing its escalatory nuclear activities,” Solomon said.

The National Council of Resistance of Iran (NCRI) said the desert zone, now designated a restricted military area, hosts the core of what it called the Kavir Plan—a successor to the earlier Amad project.

The United States accused Iran of seeking a nuclear weapon as part of the shadowy Amad Project scrapped before 2004, an effort Washington says was overseen by Iran’s Organization of Defensive Innovation and Research (SPND).

“Development, testing and nuclear weapons activities (are) hidden deep in the desert, under intense security measures,” the group’s spokesperson said at a press conference in Washington DC.

The announcement came as Tehran and Washington are negotiating over Iran's nuclear program to reach a deal to curb the program in return for the lifting of sanctions.

Washington has assessed that Iran is not building nuclear weapons and its Supreme Leader has not approved them but recent discourse in Tehran urging the acquisition a bomb is emboldening advocates for such a move.

US President Donald Trump on Tuesday said Iranian negotiators have become “much more aggressive” in recent weeks, confirming nonetheless that the sixth round of talks would take place this week.

Kavir Plan

NCRI’s leading faction, the Mojahedin-e-Khalq (MeK), said it had obtained new evidence from inside Iran.

MeK spokesperson Alireza Jafarzadeh said the Kavir Plan involves at least six sites in Semnan province—Shahrud, Eyvanaki, Semnan, Sanjarian, Sorkheh Hesar and Parchin site in coordination with the SPND headquarters in Tehran—all directed by the Ministry of Defense and Revolutionary Guards.

“The Kavir Plan is not just a replacement for the Amad Plan, but it’s a more advanced, more sophisticated and more secure plan than the original one,” Jafarzadeh said.

According to NCRI, SPND serves as the coordinating body for Kavir activities. SPND was named in a 2011 IAEA report and sanctioned by the US in 2014 for proliferation efforts.

Jafarzadeh said over 400 nuclear specialists have been transferred from Iran’s Atomic Energy Organization to SPND operations under the Defense Ministry.

Among the sites, Shahrud was identified as a launch complex for Ghiam-100 solid-fuel missiles, allegedly disguised as a satellite facility. Sanjarian focused on explosive bridge wire (EBW) detonators—components critical for weaponizing a bomb, the opposition group added.

Iran has repeatedly denied pursuing nuclear weapons, dismissing MeK reports as fabrications.

"Building nuclear warheads"

The NCRI maintains that the Kavir Plan mirrors the Amad Plan’s goals—specifically, building five nuclear warheads designed for Shahab-3 missiles.

In 2002, the NCRI revealed for the first time a uranium enrichment facility at Natanz and a heavy water plant at Arak. In 2003, the group also disclosed the Lavizan-Shian Technological Research Center in northeastern Tehran as an undeclared nuclear site.

The Lavizan-Shian site was cited again in the UN nuclear watchdog’s May 2025 report for noncompliance and the presence of undeclared nuclear material.

Shayan Samiee, a national security expert, said the new report would heighten political pressure.

“I doubt that the intelligence and security apparatus of the US and Europe had no clue about this information. Surely they did,” he told Iran International TV.

“This report will put pressure on the House and Senate to push President Trump to either shut down negotiations with Iran or adopt a tougher stance.”

On Monday, Iran’s Supreme National Security Council said it had acquired sensitive documents linked to Israel’s nuclear program.

Tehran warned it will use those files to hit Israel’s clandestine nuclear facilities if the Jewish state attacks Iran.

Former diplomat Ramin Mehmanparast told the reformist Etemad daily that both Iran and the United States may ultimately settle on a limited, temporary agreement since the other two options—a full deal and war— are unlikely and undesirable.

“The third scenario is a middle-ground option: no comprehensive agreement, and no military conflict,” he said, asserting that an interim deal could see Iran addressing concerns about the nature of its nuclear activities in return for sanctions relief.

“(This) is the most likely, as the US believes it can sustain maximum pressure without going to war—tightening sanctions to economically squeeze Iran and force concessions,” he said, adding that Arab states would favor this outcome as it avoids escalation while containing Tehran’s regional power.

The cautious optimism on both sides appears to have faded in recent weeks.

US President Donald Trump on Tuesday said Iranian negotiators have become “much more aggressive” in recent weeks, confirming nonetheless that the sixth round of talks would take place this week.

Mixed assessments

Sensing troubled waters ahead if talks collapse, some moderates in Iran are becoming more vocal in urging flexibility, while hardliners push for an even tougher stance to deter the West.

“Iran must show mild and flexible responses … as confrontation could have destructive consequences,” political analyst and former diplomat Ali Bigdeli was quoted as saying by reformist daily Etemad.

In another interview with the conservative website Nameh News, he urged Tehran to seek Western concessions in return for agreeing to enrichment levels between 1% and 2.5%.

These proposals come as the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) intensifies scrutiny of Iran’s nuclear program.

At the IAEA Board of Governors meeting in Vienna on Monday, Director General Rafael Grossi warned that Iran still has not explained uranium traces found at undeclared sites and has reduced transparency, obstructing monitoring efforts.

Etemad warned in a commentary that a formal IAEA rebuke could revive the six UN Security Council resolutions suspended under the 2015 deal.

In Nameh News, analyst Mohammad Javad Jamali Nobandegani argued that Grossi’s statement marked a first step toward such a resolution, asserting that further pressure could push Iran to quit the Non-Proliferation Treaty altogether.

“If the trigger mechanism is activated,” he warned, “there will be no reason for Iran to cooperate with the IAEA.”

Nobandegani accused the IAEA of calibrating its position based on the status of Iran–US talks, softening when negotiations are active and siding with Israel when they are not.

"Iran must act in a way that the heavy consequences of triggering the snapback mechanism are factored into the calculations of the US and Europe,” he concluded. “If they do not sense any deterrent response, they will move toward reinstating sanctions."

"We can seize the initiative to optimize our posture to defend the Homeland, strengthen our economic outlook, take back our right to freedom of navigation, and sustain the upper hand against an increasingly desperate Iran," US Central Command (CENTCOM) chief Army General Michael Kurilla said.

"Iranian leadership understands their acute vulnerability, and the precision of Israel’s response demonstrates that Iran will remain critically exposed to future Israeli operations, even if their former defenses are reconstituted," Kurilla said in a statement to the US House Armed Services Committee.

Israel launched air strikes on Iran in October in response to a missile attack on its soil, in an operation it said knocked out Iranian air defenses and missile production capacity.

"Significantly weakened, Iran finds itself with fewer options," Kurilla added. "In addition to an active chemical weapons program, there is one remaining pillar the Regime may consider its best chance at restoring deterrence and imposing its will on the Region – the threat of developing a nuclear weapon."

The US intelligence community assesses that Iran is not building a nuclear weapon nor has such a move been authorized by its Supreme Leader yet but that a taboo on discussing the bomb in public discourse was eroding.

Iran's proxies in Middle East

Kurilla said Tehran's attempt to capitalize on the Palestinian armed group Hamas's attack on Israel on Oct. 7, 2023 has largely failed after serial military setbacks.

"After Hamas's attack on Israel, Iran operationalized its entire proxy network and arsenal of standoff capabilities – two pillars of their strategic approach – in pursuit of one goal: to seize a once-in-a-generation opportunity to reshape the region to its advantage."

Iran's losses could be the United States' gain, Kurilla suggested, without mentioning any specific course of action.

"We now have an unprecedented opportunity to advance the vision of a
prosperous and integrated Middle East in which US national interests are advanced
and Iran’s violent attempts to upend this peaceful order are defeated."

Influential conservatives are ramping up a lobbying campaign to end a push for a nuclear deal with Tehran and instead allow its nemesis Israel to strike Iran's nuclear sites, Politico reported citing informed sources.

Those lines were advocated by popular right-wing talk show host Marc Levin in a private lunch with Trump at the White House on Wednesday also attended by the US envoy for the talks Steve Witkoff - whom Levin has frequently criticized.

Rupert Murdoch's media empire has also begun piling pressure on the outreach, Politico wrote, and the New York Post which he owns has lambasted Witkoff and suggested the real estate billionaire is beholden to Qatar.

“They’re trying to push the president to make a decision that’s not what he wants,” Politico quoted a senior Trump administration official as saying.

“There’s clearly a lobby for war with Iran vs. those who are more aligned with the president, that know he is the one that has been able to bring them to the negotiating table.”

Tucker Carlson, a top conservative commentator, became aware of Levin's White House meeting and blasted his efforts as likely to embroil the United States in a war that could draw in other powers and result in American defeat.

White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt told the Politico that Trump listens to a broad array of voices but makes his own policy judgments.

“With respect to Iran, President Trump has made his own opinion clear: he would like to pursue diplomacy and make a deal, but IF Iran makes a deal impossible, President Trump has other options on the table,” she said.

The Make America Great Again movement founded by Trump prioritizes populist issues like jobs and economic growth over foreign entanglements, which the president has said led to defeat and disrepute for the country.

Stalwart MAGA influencers Charlie Kirk and Jack Posobiec have advocated for diplomacy to their broad online followings.

A longtime Trump ally quoted by the outlet questioned the wisdom of attempting to pressure the anti-war president into a conflict.

“The president is not going to support war… But I’m telling you, these guys won’t take no for an answer. This is why there’s a breach in the Bibi-President Trump relationship. ... Israel isn’t reading the room. The MAGA movement doesn’t support military operations.”

The latest US proposal in the nuclear talks proposed an international consortium to enrich uranium in which Tehran would take part in order to produce nuclear fuel.

Politico quoted a senior Trump administration official as saying the offer may provide a way for compromise: “It is a very creative proposal that allows both sides to claim a win."