US Mideast commander says 'desperate' Iran leaning into nuclear deterrence

The top US military commander in the Middle East told Congress on Tuesday that Iranian weakness offers Washington a historic opportunity to advance its interests but a vulnerable Tehran may seek deterrence in nuclear weapons.

"We can seize the initiative to optimize our posture to defend the Homeland, strengthen our economic outlook, take back our right to freedom of navigation, and sustain the upper hand against an increasingly desperate Iran," US Central Command (CENTCOM) chief Army General Michael Kurilla said.

"Iranian leadership understands their acute vulnerability, and the precision of Israel’s response demonstrates that Iran will remain critically exposed to future Israeli operations, even if their former defenses are reconstituted," Kurilla said in a statement to the US House Armed Services Committee.

Israel launched air strikes on Iran in October in response to a missile attack on its soil, in an operation it said knocked out Iranian air defenses and missile production capacity.

"Significantly weakened, Iran finds itself with fewer options," Kurilla added. "In addition to an active chemical weapons program, there is one remaining pillar the Regime may consider its best chance at restoring deterrence and imposing its will on the Region – the threat of developing a nuclear weapon."

The US intelligence community assesses that Iran is not building a nuclear weapon nor has such a move been authorized by its Supreme Leader yet but that a taboo on discussing the bomb in public discourse was eroding.

Iran's proxies in Middle East

Kurilla said Tehran's attempt to capitalize on the Palestinian armed group Hamas's attack on Israel on Oct. 7, 2023 has largely failed after serial military setbacks.

"After Hamas's attack on Israel, Iran operationalized its entire proxy network and arsenal of standoff capabilities – two pillars of their strategic approach – in pursuit of one goal: to seize a once-in-a-generation opportunity to reshape the region to its advantage."

Iran's losses could be the United States' gain, Kurilla suggested, without mentioning any specific course of action.

"We now have an unprecedented opportunity to advance the vision of a
prosperous and integrated Middle East in which US national interests are advanced
and Iran’s violent attempts to upend this peaceful order are defeated."