Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi departed for Rome on Friday to lead a delegation in the fifth round of indirect talks with the United States, Iranian state media reported.
The talks come amid growing skepticism in Tehran over the prospects for progress, with officials warning that continued negotiations must be based on clear conditions.
Washington is seeking the same outcome as Israel in ongoing nuclear talks with Tehran, Iran's state-run Press TV reported on Thursday citing an unnamed political source, and is using political pressure instead of military threats.
“What the Americans want is the same Israeli plan,” the source was quoted as saying. “Only instead of a military attack, (the Americans) politically want Iran to give up its nuclear independence of its own accord.”
Iran's foreign minister said on Thursday that nuclear talks with the United States will fail if Washington insists on Iran halting its uranium enrichment, in one of Tehran's gloomiest assessments yet of the negotiations.
“The American side says enrichment must stop in Iran, and if that is their goal, there will be no agreement,” Abbas Araghchi said in an interview with state media.
“We will not give up our rights, and our nuclear program, including enrichment, must continue."
Iran insists its disputed nuclear program is peaceful and sees domestic enrichment as a right enshrined by international covenants.
Western countries and Mideast arch-nemesis Israel doubt Iran's intentions.
US state department spokesperson Tammy Bruce said on Thursday that Washington was optimistic about the talks which are due for a fifth round in Rome on Friday because Iranian diplomats were still talking despite the hard US line on enrichment.
"The fifth round of the nuclear talks would not be happening if we didn't think that there was potential for it," Bruce told reporters on Thursday.
"Clearly we believe that we are going to succeed," she added. "Most of our leaders have who have spoken on it (have said talks are) about no enrichment, and the Iranians are (still) at that table. So they also understand what our position is, and they continue to go."
Iran prepared to respond to any Israeli strike
Addressing reports that Israel may be preparing for a strike on Iranian nuclear facilities, Araghchi said he had written to UN Secretary-General António Guterres warning that Iran will defend its nuclear facilities if attacked.
"If the threats continue, we will be forced to implement special arrangements to protect our nuclear facilities and materials, and those who need to understand what these special arrangements are will certainly understand," he said.
CNN reported Tuesday that US intelligence indicates Israel is preparing for potential strikes on Iranian nuclear infrastructure, citing multiple American officials.
Araghchi also said that Israel is against US negotiations with Iran and in recent months they have tried their best to drag Washington into war with Tehran.
“Whether or not the US participates in an attack alongside Israel, we see it as a partner in aggression. We do not accept the idea that Israel could act without American coordination,” he said.
Iranian foreign minister Abbas Araghchi said on Thursday that nuclear talks with the United States will not result in an agreement if Washington insists on Iran halting its uranium enrichment.
“The American side says enrichment must stop in Iran, and if that is their goal, there will be no agreement,” Araghchi said.
He added that the negotiations have not yet reached the stage of securing US commitments or guarantees on lifting sanctions and that fundamental disagreements still exist.
“We will not give up our rights, and our nuclear program, including enrichment, must continue,” he said.
The United Nations has confirmed that it received a letter from Iranian foreign minister Abbas Araghchi warning of a possible Israeli attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities.
Stéphane Dujarric, spokesperson for the UN secretary-general, said the letter was delivered to their office on Thursday morning and, as requested, will be shared with the UN General Assembly and Security Council.
Dujarric also pointed to the rising use of threatening rhetoric and the potential for escalating military activity, saying it was a common cause for concern.
Despite worsening energy shortages at home, Iran has increased its gas and electricity exports over the past year, official data shows.
The country has faced persistent shortfalls in both electricity and natural gas since early 2024. Many industries have been affected and may even come to halt, Iranian minister for industry Mohammad Atabak warned on Thursday.
Still, Iran’s gas exports to Turkey went up 5% in the year ending February 2025, according to latest data from Turkey’s Energy Market Regulatory Authority (EPDK).
Electricity exports to Iraq rose by 6% in the same period, according to a recent report by Iran’s energy ministry. Iraq is also Iran’s second-largest gas customer, but no updated figures are available for gas exports to that country.
Profiting abroad, struggling at home
In its latest budget, the moderate administration of president Masoud Pezeshkian projects gas exports worth $5 billion.
Iran’s gas exports are dwarfed by domestic consumption. But the export revenues far exceed the domestic sales due to heavy subsidies of energy for Iranians.
The same pricing gap exists in the electricity sector. The government is struggling to fuel Iran’s power plants, but continues to sell electricity to higher-paying foreign buyers while industries at home face frequent power cuts.
A manager at a petrochemical plant in Tabriz, northwestern Iran, told Iran International that the factory loses power three days a week, with water cuts one day weekly.
“Running diesel generators isn’t viable either,” he said, “Industrial diesel now sells for 15,000 tomans a liter—about 50 times the subsidized rate for vehicles.”
Diesel prices set to rise
Iran’s government recently approved a three-tier pricing plan for vehicle diesel: a subsidized quota, a semi-subsidized tier, and a market-based rate aligned with production costs.
The current subsidized price is just 0.35 cents per liter. While final figures haven’t been released, the oil ministry estimates that diesel production costs run around 285,000 rials per liter—roughly 34 cents.
An oil ministry document obtained by Iran International shows diesel production grew by 3.5% last year, while consumption jumped 7.5%. Officials have filled the gap through fuel oil barter deals abroad.
Roughly half of Iran’s diesel goes to the transport sector; the rest fuels power plants, industry, and other infrastructure.
Industries told to import electricity
Curiously, officials in Tehran are now encouraging factories to import electricity.
“Large industrial users can import power from Turkey and Azerbaijan via existing cross-border grids,” deputy director of transmission at state utility Mohammad-Allah Daad said on Tuesday.
But with domestic electricity priced far below international levels, this solution appears economically unfeasible for most industries. Rising energy costs are expected to push factory prices even higher—further fueling inflation.
A decade ago, Turkey and Azerbaijan imported electricity from Iran. Today, both countries have become net exporters thanks to rapid investment in solar and wind energy.
Imports may not be a solution
An investigation by Iran International found that Iran’s infrastructure allows for importing just 850 megawatts (MW) from neighboring countries. Yet the country faces a seasonal shortfall of up to 25,000 MW in summer and 15,000 MW in winter.
Even using the full import capacity would cover barely 3.4% of the summer gap.
To illustrate the scale of the problem: if Turkmenistan, Azerbaijan, and Armenia diverted all their current exports—roughly 3 terawatt-hours annually—to Iran, it still wouldn’t be enough to meaningfully offset the deficit.
Natural gas poses an even bigger challenge.
Over the past three years, Iran’s electricity and gas output have grown by just 2% annually—while consumption has surged more than threefold, driven by population growth, subsidies, and inefficiency.
