Secondary tariffs: US wields a powerful tool against Iran

According to the Revolutionary Guards (IRGC) linked Fars News Agency, the ministry reported high lithium concentrations in brine in Qom Salt Lake, Khor in Iran's Central Desert, and Tarud in Semnan Province.

Fars suggested that these findings could position Iran as a key player in the global lithium mining industry, although the scale of the discovered deposits pales in comparison to those controlled by the world's top ten lithium producers.

An official from the Presidential office’s Mines Working Group reported that with a lithium concentration of 60–70 ppm, this deposit would yield only 500–600 tons of lithium—far from the claim that Iran had discovered 20% of the world’s lithium.

The world’s major lithium reserves are found in the "Lithium Triangle" (Argentina, Bolivia, and Chile), while Australia leads in hard-rock lithium mining. The latest data ranks Bolivia as the top holder of lithium reserves, with an estimated 23 million tons. With usable reserves close to 14 million tons, the US ranks third in the world.

Due to security restrictions, Iranian government websites are inaccessible from outside Iran. However, Fars reported that the findings stem from a year-long study conducted in collaboration with Russian experts using advanced technologies such as ICP-OES. According to Fars, this study confirms the presence of lithium reserves with globally competitive concentrations.

The Fars report on March 12 has been widely republished by Iranian media and amplified on social media, especially by accounts linked to hardliners that claim Iran is on the brink of a "Green Lithium Revolution." Such claims are often used as a means to create optimism among the population as the country's economy continues to deteriorate.

This is not the first time that exaggerated claims about Iran’s lithium resources have circulated. In November 2024, a very well-known ultra-hardliner and vigilante, Hossein Allahkaram, said in an online debate that Iran held the fourth-largest reserves of lithium in the world, even suggesting that Elon Musk sought negotiations with Iran.

Similar misinformation spread in February 2023 when Iran’s official news agency IRNA quoted a ministry official, Ebrahim-Ali Molabeigi, claiming the discovery of 8.5 million tons of lithium in Hamedan Province.

Global excitement over the report faded after it was revealed to be a misinterpretation. The actual discovery was 8.5 million tons of hectorite clay containing lithium, not pure lithium reserves.

Lithium plays a crucial role in rechargeable batteries for electric vehicles, smartphones, laptops, and energy storage systems. While it is primarily extracted from salt lake brines and hard rock deposits, alternative sources such as clay deposits and geothermal brines are not yet widely used for commercial production.

Footage received by Iran International shows smoke rising from the pumping station early Saturday, following a rally by farmers demanding access to Zayandeh Rud water — a long-promised resource they say has been diverted elsewhere.

“There’s been no release of water into the river despite repeated promises,” said one farmer at the protest, adding that local agriculture has been devastated by years of inaction.

Farmers in Isfahan have repeatedly accused the government of diverting their water to other provinces, particularly Yazd, while their own access to Zayandeh Rud — once the lifeblood of regional farming — remains restricted. The issue has sparked protests for years, often met with a heavy security response.

The disruption has triggered a major water emergency in Yazd, which is now facing what officials describe as red-level shortages for the population of well over half a million.

Mohammad-Javad Mahjoubi, head of Yazd’s regional water authority, said the pipeline was completely shut off after the attack and warned there was no estimate for when it might resume.

Jalal Alamdari, the managing director of Yazd’s water utility, described the situation as critical and confirmed that 13 mobile tankers had been deployed across the province.

Isfahan is considered one of the most critically affected provinces in Iran in terms of water scarcity, and the people of this region have repeatedly gathered and protested against the inefficient management of the Islamic Republic in addressing the issue.

In some cases, the protests have been met with repression by Iran's security forces. The first major act of sabotage on the pipeline occurred in 2012, tensions only intensifying since.

Interior Minister Eskandar Momeni acknowledged the broader crisis last week, calling water scarcity a “serious national issue” and urging citizens to cut back on usage.

Two overnight earthquakes, measuring 3.0 and 3.3 in magnitude, struck Varamin—a densely populated and impoverished town southeast of Tehran—on March 14. While the tremors were felt in the southern parts of the capital, no casualties were reported.

Just a day before the incident, a member of Iran's International Institute of Earthquake Engineering and Seismology (IIEES) warned that Tehran was at greater risk than ever of experiencing a devastating earthquake.

Seismologist Fariborz Nateghollahi cautioned that a magnitude 7.0 earthquake could result in up to six million casualties. He also criticized the government’s crisis management efforts, highlighting the lack of preparedness and inadequate training for such a disaster.

Tehran’s seismic vulnerability

Greater Tehran, now home to over 10 million people, sits in a seismically active region with three major fault lines and many smaller ones.

A study conducted in collaboration with the Japan Cooperation Agency (JICA) a few years ago found that these fault lines have the potential to trigger earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher, potentially destroying up to half of the city's buildings.

Seismologists, including Nateghollahi, have repeatedly warned that based on historical seismic cycles, any of these fault lines could become active at any time soon.

A 2018 IIEES study estimated a 40–70% probability of a major earthquake within a 100-kilometer radius of central Tehran in the next two to 12 years.

The last major earthquake in what is now Greater Tehran occurred in 1830, with a magnitude of 7.1, striking Shemiran—a small village at the time. Over the past few decades, Shemiran has transformed into one of the capital’s most affluent districts, now filled with high-rises, government buildings, and shopping malls.

High-risk areas

The southeastern part of Tehran, also situated on a major fault line, is considered the city’s most vulnerable area. It is characterized by densely packed old buildings and narrow streets, which would severely hinder rescue operations in the event of a major earthquake.

Additionally, the region has suffered from land subsidence due to a drastic decline in underground water levels over the past few decades.

A capital under strain

Authorities say the 47 percent drop in rainfall in Tehran province, the worst in the past 57 years, has seriously depleted the water reserves of several dams that supply the city’s drinking water. Images published in recent weeks showed that Karaj dam, one of the largest, had almost completely dried up. The dams also contributed to electricity generation to feed the capital, which has been experiencing regular power cuts in the past few months.

Iranian authorities, including President Masoud Pezeshkian, have on various occasions spoken of the need to relocate the country's capital due to its extreme vulnerability to major earthquakes.

In recent years, a shortage of water resources, land subsidence due to a decline in underground water levels, and air pollution have also become serious threats to the survival of the capital, established in 1786.

A history of devastation

Iran is one of the most seismically active countries in the world, with approximately 575 identified fault lines. Earthquakes of varying intensity are common, often resulting in significant casualties and destruction.

In 1990, a 7.4 magnitude earthquake struck Manjil and Roudbar in the Caspian mountains, killing between 35,000 and 50,000 people. Thirteen years later, a 6.6 magnitude earthquake devastated the southeastern city of Bam, claiming at least 34,000 lives.

Economic ties with Japan have collapsed despite the absence of political disputes, said Ali Majedi, Iran’s former ambassador to Germany, Japan, and Brazil.

“Europe still does some business with us,” Majedi said, but “But East Asia, outside of China, doesn’t work with us at all anymore.”

The former official said sanctions had affected trade not just with the West, but with Asian economies such as Japan, South Korea, and India, where commercial relations have reached a minimum.

“When I was in Tokyo in 2004, Japan was importing 750,000 barrels of oil per day and trade between us exceeded $10 billion,” Majedi added. “Now, even for items not under sanctions, trade is practically nonexistent.”

While China remains Iran’s last major oil customer in the region, Majedi said other East Asian nations have largely fallen in line with US restrictions. He added that smaller countries in the region still depend on American security guarantees and avoid Iranian trade out of fear of secondary sanctions.

Findings by Iran International show that while Iran’s oil sales to China dropped sharply last month, the decline in export revenues began months earlier, coinciding with US sanctions on dozens of tankers carrying Iranian crude.

The Biden administration imposed sanctions on dozens of tankers carrying Iranian oil after Iran’s missile attack on Israel in early October last year. While this initially led to a relative decline in Iranian oil offloading at Chinese ports, Beijing fearing potential US sanctions under Donald Trump's administration, prohibited sanctioned oil tankers from entering Shandong port.

Iran’s only oil customers are small, independent Chinese refineries, known as "teapots," most of which are based in Shandong, where 90% of Iranian oil cargoes is discharged.

Data from Kpler shows that Iran’s oil deliveries to China fell below 850,000 barrels per day in January, compared to over 1.8 million barrels per day in October last year.

“Right now, we are still exporting oil. There has been no disruption in our shipment routes,” Paknejad told Iranian state media.

Asked about Washington’s efforts to bring Iran’s oil exports to zero, Paknejad said such statements remain unproven. “All of this is being said for now. What is happening in practice is that we are exporting,” he said.

Asked if Iran is ready to deal with tougher sanctions enforcement by the US, Paknejad said, “Naturally, if any restrictions are imposed on Iran's oil sales, we have taken the necessary measures to respond.”

Paknejad also denied any decline in oil sales, saying Iran set a record for crude exports in the Iranian month of Dey (Dec21–Jan. 20).

Earlier this month, the US Treasury imposed sanctions on Paknejad, breaking with its usual practice of sparing senior political officials. The move was part of a broader effort to tighten enforcement on Iranian oil exports, which Washington says help fund Tehran’s military and security forces, including the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).

Paknejad’s comments on Saturday also follow a report earlier this week from Iraq’s Oil Minister Hayan Abdel-Ghani, who said that Iranian tankers intercepted by US forces in the Gulf were found to be using forged Iraqi documents.

"We received verbal inquiries about oil tankers detained by US naval forces. It turned out these tankers were Iranian and were using fake Iraqi manifests," Abdel-Ghani said on Iraqi state TV.

Iran denied the claim, saying its oil exports are conducted “within accepted trade frameworks,” and reaffirmed its position in a call between Paknejad and his Iraqi counterpart on Friday.

The dispute comes amid a broader US effort to crack down on alleged fuel smuggling and sanctions evasion by Iranian-linked networks. In December, Reuters reported that a smuggling network using forged documents was generating at least $1 billion annually for Iran and its allies in Iraq.