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With the fall of the Assad government threatening Iran's key strategic foothold in the Levant, Tehran signals an interest in forging ties with Syria's new power holders, according to an Iranian official.
Long-time President Bashar al Assad fled the country at the weekend, leaving a vacuum in the country after both Iran and Russia had since 2011’s civil war, supported.
Reuters reported that talks had begun in an attempt to "prevent a hostile trajectory" between the countries after a rapid takeover saw the 50-year Assad family rule collapse in days.
The senior official told Reuters that Iran's clerical rulers, facing the loss of an important ally in Damascus and the return of Donald Trump to the white House in January, were open to engaging with Syria's new leaders.
Iran had multiple military bases across Syria, having controlled airports and sea ports which have been a key smuggling route to Iran’s military allies in the region, including its largest, Hezbollah in Lebanon. It is not clear if there is an Iranian presence left in Assad's traditional bastion, the Alawite coastal regions.
Syria was also a location for Iran’s oil sales amid global sanctions, allowing the Islamic Republic to circumvent the crippling economic grip imposed by the US and other nations.
"This engagement is key to stabilize ties and avoiding further regional tensions," the official said.
The fall of the Assad government came after the unification of multiple Sunni militia forces, led by Hay'at Tahrir al Sham, a former al Qaeda ally.
However, it is led by Muhammad al Jolani who, though a Sunni, is known to share Iran's hatred of Israel. His grandfather was displaced to Syria from the now Israeli occupied Golan Heights in 1967.
In a rare Western media interview in 2021 with PBS Frontline, he said he was radicalized by the second intifada in 2000, one of the bloodiest periods in the Palestine-Israel conflict.
Just like Iran's backing of Gaza-based Hamas, the alliance would not be the first time Iran had aligned with Sunni militants in a bid to erase its archenemy, Israel.
“I was 17 or 18 years old at the time, and I started thinking about how I could fulfil my duties, defending a people who are oppressed by occupiers and invaders,” he said at the time.
It is not only Iran which is worried about the new transition, in spite of the global relief of the fall of a man known as a brutal dictator, and whose rule saw the deaths of at least 300,000 civilians, including hundreds in a chemical weapons attack in 2013.
The US carried out dozens of targeted airstrikes on ISIS members and facilities as fears of a resurgence of extremism remained a priority.
“There should be no doubt – we will not allow ISIS to reconstitute and take advantage of the current situation in Syria,” CENTCOM Commander General Michael Erik Kurilla said in a statement.
“All organizations in Syria should know that we will hold them accountable if they partner with or support ISIS in any way.”
Iran has engaged in direct talks with factions in Syria's new leadership following the ousting of its ally, Bashar al-Assad, a senior Iranian official said on Monday. The discussions aim to "prevent a hostile trajectory" in relations between the two nations, the official told Reuters.
The official said Iran's leadership, grappling with the loss of a key ally in Damascus and the impending return of Donald Trump to the White House in January, was open to engaging with Syria's new leaders.
"This engagement is key to stabilize ties and avoiding further regional tensions," he said.
In the aftermath of Bashar al-Assad's ouster in Syria, some Iranian politicians and commentators have pointed to his unpopularity and criticized the Islamic Republic for what they describe as the extensive resources wasted on keeping him in power.
Some of the more outspoken views about Assad, which could be seen as indirect criticism of Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's policies, were conspicuously deleted after a few hours, possibly under pressure from authorities.
Khamenei has consistently praised Bashar al-Assad as a pivotal figure in the "Axis of Resistance" and has insisted on unwavering support for him against his opponents.
Conservative commentator Mohammad Mohajeri, tweeted Sunday, “In the last election, Bashar al-Assad had won 95 percent of the vote, but three years after that election, he fell from power without a single person from among ordinary people being willing to defend him." He later removed his post without an explanation.
Prominent commentator Sadegh Zibakalam, often labeled a reformist, reiterated his recent criticism of the Islamic Republic’s costly support for Bashar al-Assad in two tweets on Sunday.
Zibakalam, who has frequently condemned Iran's spending on arming and supporting groups like the Houthis and Hezbollah, as well as countries such as Venezuela, had also criticized the financial backing for Assad in a November 2023 interview.
In one of his tweets, Zibakalam who has also been very critical of Iran's costly nuclear program, said the Islamic Republic dedicated every possible assistance including the lives of its men to keep Assad in power but “never asked even once how this resistance leader treated his people.”
“Assad’s end was fortunate both for the Syrian people and Iranians. The people of Syria were saved from the suppressive rule of Baathists after half a century. The gain for the Iranians is that wastage of their country’s resources and throwing that into the bottomless well called Axis of Resistance to save a despotic and unpopular ruler ended,” he said in another post.
Zibakalam, who was imprisoned in May and later released for medical treatment, deleted his tweets after a few hours and made no further comments on Assad’s fall.
Parvaneh Salahshouri, a former reformist lawmaker and outspoken critic of the Islamic Republic’s policies, referred to Bashar al-Assad as a dictator in a brief post on X. “Assad’s destiny, the disgraceful fate of all dictators,” she wrote.
“The fate of over half a century of the Assad family dictatorship in Syria … must be a lesson for all authoritarian governments,” the former secretary general of the banned Freedom Movement of Iran Party, Mohammad Tavassoli, warned in an X post, adding that timely “return to the people” and giving them freedom and the power to exercise their wishes can “prevent such a costly process” as overthrowing the Assad family.
A similar view was expressed by Rahmatollah Bigdelli, a pro-Pezeshkian cleric and politician, who also in an X post said Assad’s fall should be a lesson for a government to surrender to the will of its people to stay immune to “internal and external threats”.
Assad’s reported $30 billion debt to Iran
In addition to deploying tens of thousands of fighters to support Bashar al-Assad’s forces against insurgents across Syria, the Islamic Republic provided his government with free oil and military equipment for years.
Iran's substantial support for Assad has contributed to sanctions being imposed on its prominent airline, Mahan Air, as well as the country's national carrier, Iran Air.
In May 2020, Heshmatollah Falahatpisheh, then-chairman of the parliamentary National Security Council and Foreign Policy Committee, said Iran had spent between $20 to $30 billion to support Assad and demanded that the debt be paid back.
“Syria … Iranians must rejoice now. Nobody has the right to spend the nation’s dollars to preserve the spider’s web,” Falahatpisheh tweeted Sunday.
Falahatpishes, too, removed his tweet Monday and in another tweet said he still considers the Assad family a "spider's web". "That's why I spent a decade of my life to recover Syria's debts to Iran," he wrote, but added that he distinguishes between the Assad family and the "true and rightful resistance movement."
Many of those who commented on his tweet accused him of cowardice for backing from his original position under pressure. "Look out of the window, the black van [of the security forces] has left the alleyway. It is too obvious that they called you to direct you to the right path,” one of the comments said.
Similar concerns were voiced by Bahram Parsaei, a member of parliament until 2020, who also claimed the Assad government owed $30 billion to Iran. “What will happen to this huge sum of money now?” he asked in an X post. He pointed out that according to Article 80 of the Iranian Constitution, any non-refundable foreign loans should have been approved by the Parliament.
In the wake of the collapse of Bashar al-Assad’s government in Syria, an Iranian tanker carrying oil to Syria has reversed its course in the Red Sea apparently headed back toward the Persian Gulf.
Initially set to deliver approximately 750,000 barrels of Iranian crude to Syria, the Suezmax tanker LOTUS (IMO 9203784) is now returning to Iran, as reported by Tanker Trackers.
Iran has been providing Assad's government with free oil, as well as financial and military assistance throughout the country's civil war. According to Iranian politicians, the Assad government owed Iran between $30-50 billion.
This follows anticipated fuel shortages in Syria, likely to worsen with the fall of Iran's allied government and the takeover by insurgent groups, who stormed the Iranian embassy in Damascus on Sunday.
According to data received by Iran International from Kepler, a leading provider of technology-led insights into energy and shipping markets, Iran has been sending between 60,000 and 70,000 barrels of oil to Syria daily.
Anti-Assad rebels view Iran as a supporter of a regime that suppressed protests and targeted opponents with all available military means during the 13-year civil war. Assad's fall and the withdrawal of Iranian forces would disrupt Tehran's ability to use Syria as a strategic transit route for transferring weapons to the Lebanese Hezbollah and as a military base.
Syria served as a critical corridor for the Islamic Republic, linking Tehran to the Mediterranean in what was often referred to as Tehran's "Shiite Crescent." With Assad's fall, Iran's regional influence is expected to weaken further, particularly following significant Israeli blows against Hezbollah.
“This will probably embolden the Trump Administration to take a tough stance against Iran, in particular by constraining their oil exports. Inflicting economic pain on the regime would seem more likely to yield results now that the Iranians have seen their investment in Syria prove wasted,” wrote Forbes on Sunday.
Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, the main rebel group advancing in Syria, sent Iran a private diplomatic message this week, The New York Times reported citing three Iranian officials.
"The group promised that it would protect Shiite religious sites and Shiite minorities and asked Iran not to fight its forces," the report said.
Iran, in turn, asked the group to allow safe passage of its troops out of Syria and to protect the Shia shrines, according to two officials cited by the Times.
