New round of Iran-Europe nuclear talks end with no immediate results

A meeting is scheduled for Friday between the three European signatories of the 2015 JCPOA nuclear accord—the United Kingdom, France, and Germany (E3)—and the Islamic Republic, with the participation of EU representative Enrique Mora, who met with the Iranian envoys.

Both sides issued posts on X briefly describing the discussions, with widely different accounts, except calling the exchange as frank.

The EU official, Mora, enumerated the issues he brought to the attention of Majid Takht-Ravanchi and Kazem Gharibabadi, both Iran’s deputy foreign ministers.

“Frank exchange with Iran Deputy FM @TakhtRavanchi and @Gharibabadi on Iran’s military support to Russia that has to stop, the nuclear issue that needs a diplomatic solution, regional tensions (important to avoid further escalation from all sides) and human rights,” Mora tweeted.

Gharibabadi, tweeting on behalf of the Iranian side, detailed a lengthy list of alleged mistakes and missteps by the European Union and European powers.

“It was reaffirmed to him [Mora] that EU should abandon its self-centered and irresponsible behaviour towards issues and challenges of this continent and international matters,” he said.

The Iranian diplomat accused the European side of deflecting its own problems and mistakes onto others, particularly regarding the war in Ukraine. European nations have strongly condemned Iran’s role as a weapons supplier to Russia and have imposed sanctions on numerous companies and individuals linked to Tehran’s government.

Gharibabadi also strongly criticized Europe’s stance on Iran’s nuclear program, as Paris, London and Berlin have adopted a tougher position, backing a recent censure against Tehran at a meeting of UN’s nuclear watchdog, the International Atomic Energy Agency.

“Similarly, with regard to the nuclear issue of Iran, Europe has failed to be a serious player due to lack of self-confidence and responsibility. Europe is in need of self-recovery,” the Iranian diplomat said.

Iran’s government-controlled media has projected a positive tone regarding the talks with the Europeans, as US sanctions pose increasingly difficult challenges for Tehran. However, Gharibabadi’s tweet does not reflect a more flexible Iranian position.

The talks –set to take place in Geneva between Iran and the E3 (France, Britain and Germany)– aim to restore dialogue and foster cooperation, while both sides remain poised for confrontation.

Speaking in Lisbon ahead of the negotiations, Iran’s foreign minister Abbas Araghchi suggested that any move by Western powers to reimpose UN sanctions could push Tehran over the edge.

“There is this debate going on in Iran, and mostly among the elites – even among the ordinary people – whether we should change our nuclear doctrine…because it has proved insufficient in practice,” Araghchi said in an interview carried by the Guardian on Thursday.

“This is the result after 10 to 12 years of negotiation, and after 10 years of implementation and homework and all these things, now, Iran is back under chapter seven [of the UN charter], what for,” he said, adding that UN sanctions would convince everybody in Iran that cooperation has been wrong.

This is not the first time Iranian officials hint at a possible revision of the country’s defense doctrine. It follows months of direct confrontation with Israel, including Israeli airstrikes on Iran's nuclear sites, and long-held frustration with what Tehran views as European failures to deliver on their commitments under the 2015 nuclear deal.

The nuclear deal, formally known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPoA), was intended to limit Iran’s nuclear activities in exchange for sanctions relief. The deal unraveled in all but name when Donald Trump withdrew the United States from it in 2018.

A confidential report by the UN's nuclear watchdog revealed Iran’s plans to significantly enhance its uranium enrichment infrastructure. The report, shared with member states and seen by Reuters on Thursday, detailed Tehran’s intention to install 32 new cascades of centrifuges, including an array of 1,152 advanced IR-6 machines, at its Fordow and Natanz sites.

"Iran has informed the IAEA that it intends to feed uranium feedstock into the eight IR-6 centrifuge cascades recently installed at Fordow to enrich to up to 5% purity,"
Reuters reported citing the IAEA report.

The report said Tehran informed the IAEA that it intends to test intermediate and full cascades of up to 174 IR-4, IR-6, or IR-2M centrifuges in 15 R&D production lines at its above-ground pilot fuel enrichment plant (PFEP) at Natanz.

Iran already has more than 10,000 centrifuges operating across its underground and above-ground sites. The new move is part of Iran's response to a recent censure resolution passed by the IAEA Board of Governors, urging Tehran's cooperation with the UN nuclear watchdog.

It comes on the back of an International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) censure resolution urging Tehran to enhance its cooperation with inspectors after enrichment of uranium reached 60%, near weapons-grade.

"We have begun injecting gas into several thousand advanced centrifuges, which is part of the nuclear industry's development program, and have put them into operational circuits," Mohammad Eslami, head of Iran’s Atomic Energy Organization, said Wednesday.

Speaking after a cabinet meeting, Eslami said it was a response to Europe's initiative at a recent Board of Governors meeting of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) to censure the Islamic Republic for its lack of cooperation with the UN nuclear watchdog.

According to Iran's Student News Agency, he said: "From the very beginning, we had stated that if the three European countries do not choose the path of engagement and instead pursue confrontation and resolution issuance, we will undoubtedly take reciprocal action without delay."

On Sunday, Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf said that the activation of new centrifuges was in response to the resolution.

"The Islamic Republic of Iran's reciprocal response to this political misuse of the Board of Governors was immediately put into action, and the deployment of a set of new and advanced centrifuges has begun," he said on Sunday.

The IAEA resolution, adopted on November 21, follows three years of restricted access to Iran’s nuclear sites and growing uranium stockpiles. By late October, the agency reported that Iran’s reserves included 182.3 kilograms of uranium enriched to 60%, a significant step toward nuclear weapons capability.

Eslami, however, argued that Iran’s nuclear activities remain within international frameworks.

"All of Iran’s nuclear activities are under the supervision of the agency and carried out in accordance with the Safeguards Agreement and NPT provisions," he added.

Last year, Iran banned one third of the IAEA's inspectors with multiple politicians such as Ahmad Bakhshayesh Ardestani, a member of the National Security and Foreign Policy Commission of Iran’s Parliament, supporting nuclear armament as a military deterrent. Earlier, Tehran had restricted IAEA's monitoring cameras at its nuclear facilities.

"Under current circumstances, Iran should first move toward increasing uranium enrichment, potentially raising the enrichment level to 70% or 80%. In the second phase, Iran should pursue nuclear weapon production,” he told the Didban news website in Tehran.

Referring to the war of attrition with Israel amid global sanctions for exceeding international limits for enrichment, he added: "If we produce a nuclear bomb, the resulting tension will last no more than six months. Western countries will object to why we developed nuclear weapons, and we can respond by pointing out that they have sanctioned us enough already and have no new sanctions left to impose.”

"Dialogue can always be constructive, but the other side (the European Union) must abandon its superiority complex and its stance as the center of global norms," Zarif said.

"They must step down from this so-called 'high horse' they are riding and engage with the world as equals, recognizing that if anyone needs to be held accountable, it is them,” he added.

Islamic Republic diplomats are set to meet with their counterparts from France, Garmany, the United Kingdom and the European Union on Friday to discuss controversial issues including Iran’s nuclear program and the crisis in the Middle East.

The meeting takes place after the UN nuclear watchdog issued a censure resolution condemning its lack of transparency and violation of obligations under a 2015 nuclear deal.

Zarif was the main Iranian negotiator from 2013-2015 when the JCPOA nuclear agreement was being hammered out with the three European powers, the United States, Russia and China.

The Trump administration withdrew from the agreement in 2018, imposing sanctions, which led Iran to break the deal’s restrictions on uranium enrichment. Subsequent talks during the Biden administration failed to resurrect the accord, which many regard as dead and beyond repair.

Nevertheless, Zarif turned the blame to the US. "Iran has not withdrawn from the JCPOA; it has consistently declared its readiness to adhere to the agreement and has acted within its framework. However, the United States withdrew from the JCPOA and violated its commitments," he said, meaning re-imposing economic sanctions.

He added, "The foundation of any new agreement will undoubtedly be the JCPOA, an agreement that took months and perhaps tens of thousands of man-hours in Iran, the US, Europe, Russia, and China to negotiate. As the Europeans put it, it is one of the most significant diplomatic achievements in the world."

It has been clear for several years that the JCPOA cannot be revived without addressing Iran’s breaches of the original agreement. Iran has continued to improve and expand its uranium enrichment by deploying more advanced centrifuges. As far back as 2020, Rafael Grossi, the head of the UN’s International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), declared that a new agreement is needed.

In December 2020, Grossi, speaking at the IAEA headquarters, said, "I cannot imagine that they are going simply to say, 'We are back to square one' because square one is no longer there.”

Zarif’s remarks, published only by more reformist websites, come amid a concerted effort by conservatives in parliament to pressure President Masoud Pezeshkian into removing him from the government.

They cite a 2022 law barring dual nationals or individuals with spouses or children holding dual nationality from serving in "sensitive positions" such as advisory roles to the president. Hardliners argue that this restriction applies to Zarif, alleging that his son holds US citizenship.

The November 21 International Atomic Energy Agency resolution stressed that its board of governors was not convinced Iran’s nuclear program is peaceful.

The resolution against Iran may prove to be a crucial step in building a case for more binding measures and potentially initiate the UN trigger mechanism that brings back all UN sanctions against Iran that were in place before the 2015 deal.

As the Iranian Foreign Ministry expressed its readiness for negotiations, some government supporters became so optimistic about the planned talks that they began circulating speculative claims, including the idea that US entrepreneur Elon Musk might participate.

However, this turned out to be a misunderstanding based on a loosely translated post on X by a Wall Street Journal reporter.

How prepared is Iran for negotiations with the Europeans? 

Based on statements by some not-so-high-ranking Iranian officials, Tehran is definitely eager for negotiations, but the issue is to what extent it is willing to make concessions on three key issues: its nuclear program, support for its militant proxy forces in the Middle East and its military support for Russia's war in Ukraine.

Is Iran's nuclear program the most critical issue in talks with world powers? 

Undoubtedly, as the recent IAEA resolution underscores. However, it is far from the only significant challenge in any negotiations with Tehran. Iran faces a long list of contentious topics it must address at such a high level. These include its support for regional proxies, escalating tensions with Israel, involvement in Russia's war against Ukraine, missile development programs, alleged roles in cross-border terror plots, and a troubling record of human rights violations against its citizens and dual nationals, often taken hostage for political leverage.

Is the West genuinely concerned about Iran's regional proxies following Israel's strikes on Hamas and Hezbollah?

While the strikes may have weakened these groups, as well as others in Iraq, Yemen, and beyond, they remain active and operational. Iran continues to provide financial and logistical support to compensate for their losses and consistently voices unwavering backing for them. At the same time, Tehran persists in promoting its "axis of resistance" rhetoric, which translates into a militant stance against Israel and the United States.

Is the tension with Israel over more than a month after Israel's recent strikes on Iran?

Far from it. Iranian leaders, politicians, and particularly military commanders continue to vow revenge almost daily. While some of these threats may be intended for domestic consumption to maintain the loyalty of hardline supporters, their effect on public opinion in Israel is undeniable, especially as Hezbollah and occasionally Hamas persist in launching strikes inside Israel. Moreover, there is no sign that Iran has abandoned its threats to eliminate Israel. On the contrary, such rhetoric continues unabated from Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and other senior officials.

Is concern over Iran's contribution to Russia's war against Ukraine serious? Absolutely. In fact, it ranks as Europe's top concern regarding Tehran's hostile activities, perhaps surpassing worries about its nuclear ambitions. The entire continent is deeply troubled by a war on its doorstep that could escalate into a broader conflict. Meanwhile, European countries’ financial and military support for Ukraine has placed significant strain on their citizens, including those in the United Kingdom. Iran's military assistance to Russia exacerbates this already precarious situation, making it increasingly difficult for Europe to navigate the crisis.

But could Europe really view Iran's missile program as a serious threat?

Iranian military commanders frequently boast about their long-range missile capabilities, and recent missile attacks on Israel demonstrated their ability to strike distant targets. Unlike most nations with nuclear or conventional warheads, Iran has shown a tendency to use its missiles impulsively. It even targeted Pakistan at one point, only to retreat after a swift counterattack.

While Iranian missiles have been used against civilian targets in Saudi Arabia and Iraq fostering an illusion of power, their attacks on Israel have been largely ineffective due to Israel’s robust anti-missile defenses. Nevertheless, Europe remains concerned about the potential threat posed by Iran’s missile arsenal.

Can Europe and the United States really claim to care about human rights in Iran? The West has increasingly recognized the significance of Iranian protests, with both the US and Europe consistently condemning Tehran’s human rights violations over the past two years. Demonstrations in solidarity with Iranians have been ongoing in Western countries, and Iranian opposition figures have been welcomed at prominent international platforms, including the European Parliament and US Congress.

Human rights are likely to feature prominently in any negotiations with Iran, especially after the June 2024 presidential elections, where nearly 60 percent of Iranians boycotted the vote in protest. Meanwhile, the Iranian government is beginning to feel the pressure of a reawakening civil society. Even regime insiders have frequently cautioned leaders against further alienating the public. Most notably, the Islamic Republic newspaper—founded by none other than Khamenei himself—warned on November 25 that a revolution fueled by the hungry and disillusioned could be imminent.