Zarif urges Europe to treat Iran as an equal in talks

"The change you're going to see is more focus on Iran," Mike Waltz, Trump's nominee to be US national security advisor, told CNBC in an interview.

"Maximum pressure, not only will it help stability in the Middle East, but it'll help stability in the Russia-Ukraine theater as well, as Iran provides ballistic missiles and literally thousands and thousands of drones that are going into that theater," he added.

The Republican congressman from Florida shares a strong pro-Israel and anti-Tehran stance with many of the incoming president's other top foreign policy picks.

In his last term, President Trump withdrew the United States from an international deal over Iran's disputed nuclear program and reimposed what his administration called a maximum pressure campaign against the Islamic Republic.

By ordering the assassination of a top Iranian military commander, Qassem Soleimani in Baghdad in 2020, Trump earned the lasting enmity of Iran's ruling military and clerical establishment which has repeatedly vowed revenge.

US investigators have alleged that the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps sought to enlist an Afghan national to assassinate Trump before the US election, in charges Iran denies.

The reimposition of harsh sanctions enforcement which had eased somewhat under President Joe Biden may herald a new era of confrontation between the United States in Iran as conflict between US ally Israel and armed Iranian fighters rages on.

Waltz said Iran was an obstacle to peace in the Middle East and that oil sales to China were a key lifeline that needs to be cut off.

"As long as they are flushed with cash, the Middle East is just never going to have peace. Iran doesn't want the Middle East to be in peace," he said.

"China buys 90% of Iran's illicit oil, in roughly 2017, 2018, they were exporting 4 million barrels per day. By the end of Trump's first administration, it was down to around 300,000 to 400,000," he added. "So I think we'll be having some conversations with China about their purchases."

The November 21 International Atomic Energy Agency resolution stressed that its board of governors was not convinced Iran’s nuclear program is peaceful.

The resolution against Iran may prove to be a crucial step in building a case for more binding measures and potentially initiate the UN trigger mechanism that brings back all UN sanctions against Iran that were in place before the 2015 deal.

As the Iranian Foreign Ministry expressed its readiness for negotiations, some government supporters became so optimistic about the planned talks that they began circulating speculative claims, including the idea that US entrepreneur Elon Musk might participate.

However, this turned out to be a misunderstanding based on a loosely translated post on X by a Wall Street Journal reporter.

How prepared is Iran for negotiations with the Europeans? 

Based on statements by some not-so-high-ranking Iranian officials, Tehran is definitely eager for negotiations, but the issue is to what extent it is willing to make concessions on three key issues: its nuclear program, support for its militant proxy forces in the Middle East and its military support for Russia's war in Ukraine.

Is Iran's nuclear program the most critical issue in talks with world powers? 

Undoubtedly, as the recent IAEA resolution underscores. However, it is far from the only significant challenge in any negotiations with Tehran. Iran faces a long list of contentious topics it must address at such a high level. These include its support for regional proxies, escalating tensions with Israel, involvement in Russia's war against Ukraine, missile development programs, alleged roles in cross-border terror plots, and a troubling record of human rights violations against its citizens and dual nationals, often taken hostage for political leverage.

Is the West genuinely concerned about Iran's regional proxies following Israel's strikes on Hamas and Hezbollah?

While the strikes may have weakened these groups, as well as others in Iraq, Yemen, and beyond, they remain active and operational. Iran continues to provide financial and logistical support to compensate for their losses and consistently voices unwavering backing for them. At the same time, Tehran persists in promoting its "axis of resistance" rhetoric, which translates into a militant stance against Israel and the United States.

Is the tension with Israel over more than a month after Israel's recent strikes on Iran?

Far from it. Iranian leaders, politicians, and particularly military commanders continue to vow revenge almost daily. While some of these threats may be intended for domestic consumption to maintain the loyalty of hardline supporters, their effect on public opinion in Israel is undeniable, especially as Hezbollah and occasionally Hamas persist in launching strikes inside Israel. Moreover, there is no sign that Iran has abandoned its threats to eliminate Israel. On the contrary, such rhetoric continues unabated from Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and other senior officials.

Is concern over Iran's contribution to Russia's war against Ukraine serious? Absolutely. In fact, it ranks as Europe's top concern regarding Tehran's hostile activities, perhaps surpassing worries about its nuclear ambitions. The entire continent is deeply troubled by a war on its doorstep that could escalate into a broader conflict. Meanwhile, European countries’ financial and military support for Ukraine has placed significant strain on their citizens, including those in the United Kingdom. Iran's military assistance to Russia exacerbates this already precarious situation, making it increasingly difficult for Europe to navigate the crisis.

But could Europe really view Iran's missile program as a serious threat?

Iranian military commanders frequently boast about their long-range missile capabilities, and recent missile attacks on Israel demonstrated their ability to strike distant targets. Unlike most nations with nuclear or conventional warheads, Iran has shown a tendency to use its missiles impulsively. It even targeted Pakistan at one point, only to retreat after a swift counterattack.

While Iranian missiles have been used against civilian targets in Saudi Arabia and Iraq fostering an illusion of power, their attacks on Israel have been largely ineffective due to Israel’s robust anti-missile defenses. Nevertheless, Europe remains concerned about the potential threat posed by Iran’s missile arsenal.

Can Europe and the United States really claim to care about human rights in Iran? The West has increasingly recognized the significance of Iranian protests, with both the US and Europe consistently condemning Tehran’s human rights violations over the past two years. Demonstrations in solidarity with Iranians have been ongoing in Western countries, and Iranian opposition figures have been welcomed at prominent international platforms, including the European Parliament and US Congress.

Human rights are likely to feature prominently in any negotiations with Iran, especially after the June 2024 presidential elections, where nearly 60 percent of Iranians boycotted the vote in protest. Meanwhile, the Iranian government is beginning to feel the pressure of a reawakening civil society. Even regime insiders have frequently cautioned leaders against further alienating the public. Most notably, the Islamic Republic newspaper—founded by none other than Khamenei himself—warned on November 25 that a revolution fueled by the hungry and disillusioned could be imminent.

“We are closely coordinating with our E3 partners regarding Iran’s full implementation of its nuclear safeguard obligations and holding Iran accountable for its failure to meet those obligations,” spokesperson Matthew Miller said in his daily briefing.

Deputy foreign ministers from France, Germany and the United Kingdom will meet with their Iranian counterpart Majid Takht-Ravanchi to discuss Iran’s nuclear program and other issues, both Tehran and London confirmed.

The meeting that was first announced on Sunday, takes place about a week after the Board of Governors of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) passed a censure resolution against Tehran for its lack of cooperation and compliance. The resolution was the initiative of the three European countries and the United States, as Iran continues high-level uranium enrichment and bars many UN nuclear inspectors from the country.

“We have made it clear that Iran must provide full cooperation with the IAEA without further delay. And we’ll continue to closely coordinate with the Governments of France, Germany, and the United Kingdom,” Miller said.

In response to the IAEA resolution, Iran announced plans to increase uranium enrichment, while some Iranian politicians called on top authorities to begin the process of developing nuclear weapons.

Asked what the US thinks about Iran’s reaction, Miller said, “I would just say we’re concerned with Iran’s announcement that it’s choosing the path of continued escalation instead of cooperating with the IAEA. Its continued production and accumulation of uranium enriched up to 60 percent has no credible civilian justification.”

Tehran currently possesses enough enriched uranium for four nuclear bombs, according to IAEA estimates. While uranium enriched to 60% purity cannot serve as fissile material, Iran could further refine it to weapons-grade levels within 2-3 weeks. This position is often referred to as a nuclear-threshold status, indicating that Iran could rapidly become a nuclear power if it possesses the expertise to assemble a functional bomb.

Miller also condemned remarks by Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, who on Monday called for the execution of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, after an arrest warrant was issued by the International Criminal Court recently.

“So those comments, I’d say, are unfortunately what we would expect from the leader of a country that is a state sponsor of terrorism. When it comes to tensions in the region, obviously those comments are not helpful,” Miller said about Khamenei’s remarks.

The remarks were among the most critical yet by a current or former top official on Iran's intelligence capabilities vis-a-vis a top national security dossier.

“In the assassinations of the four nuclear scientists ... we were unable to identify those who committed the crimes," Mahmoud Alavi was quoted as saying by Iranian media outlets. "Nor were we able to thoroughly study the methods of their assassinations."

He was referring to slain nuclear scientists Masoud Ali-Mohammadi, Majid Shahriari, Darioush Rezaeinejad and Mostafa Ahmadi Roshan.

"However, the case of (Mohsen) Fakhrizadeh was different. Everyone was identified. Nevertheless, we faced a vigilant enemy who, typically, would flee just half an hour before we could reach them,” added Alavi, a minister during Hassan Rouhani’s presidency.

Between 2010 and 2020, the five Iranian nuclear scientists were assassinated by various means but none of the killers have been apprehended.

Ali-Mohammadi was killed by a remote-control bomb attached to a motorcycle in Tehran on January 2010.

Shahriari and Ahmadi Roshan died when explosives attached to their vehicles detonated in attacks in 2010 and 2012. Rezaeinejad was shot and killed by motorcycle gunmen in Tehran in the summer of 2011.

Fakhrizadeh, an Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps commander regarded as the chief of Iran's nuclear program, was shot dead by a remote-control machine gun in Damavand near Tehran in 2020.

His comments cast doubt on the government’s earlier claims of cracking down on foreign espionage.

In 2012, the Islamic Republic executed Majid Jamali Fashi, accusing him of assassinating Alimohammadi. The conviction was based on video-taped confessions aired in a state-produced documentary called The Terror Club.

The program featured 13 individuals allegedly trained in Israel for espionage and sabotage, many of whom later recanted their confessions.

Maziar Ebrahimi, another person featured in film, described later how he was tortured into falsely confessing a leadership role in the team that killed Shahriari.

Released years later, Ebrahimi has since publicly denounced the confessions, accusing Iranian authorities of fabricating the charges. Now residing in Germany, he described systemic flaws in Iran’s judicial and intelligence processes during an interview with BBC Persian in 2019.

A spokesperson for Rouhani’s government Ali Rabiei distanced the administration from Ebrahimi’s case, saying it did not occur during their administration.

Rabiei conceded that some confessions were unreliable and improperly assessed, pointing to non-specialists’ involvement in critical counterintelligence investigations.

Unresolved case of Mohsen Fakhrizadeh

Fakhrizadeh, Iran’s leading nuclear scientist and a pivotal figure in its nuclear program, was assassinated on November 27, 2020, near Absard east of Tehran. Alavi said intelligence services identified the suspects’ movements but they repeatedly evaded capture.

“We tracked them to various cities—Arak, Hamedan, Sanandaj, and finally Saqqez—but ultimately lost them as they left the country,” he said.

International media reports described the assassination as an operation involving a remote-controlled weapon smuggled into Iran. The weapon was designed in Israel and assembled inside Iran and was part of an eight-month operation orchestrated by a 20-member team of Israeli and Iranian nationals, the Jewish Chronicle reported.

Espionage accusations

Iranian authorities have since announced arrests and indictments, but inconsistencies persist. Initial claims suggested five to six armed individuals were involved, while later reports cited indictments against 14 suspects.

Human rights organizations have identified several Kurdish detainees accused of assisting the operation and raised questions about the transparency and fairness of the investigations.

Despite sporadic arrests and indictments, Iran’s intelligence services have struggled to conclusively address these high-profile assassinations.

Judiciary spokesperson Asghar Jahangir recently announced the identification of eight individuals accused of spying for Israel, with three sentenced to death.

However, rights groups like Kurdistan Human Rights Network argue that these suspects were denied due process, including access to independent legal counsel during critical investigative stages.

The recurring failures to secure accountability may reflect broader systemic shortcomings in Iran’s security apparatus.

While officials have attributed the assassinations to Israeli operatives, some critics have pointed to internal weaknesses including flawed intelligence practices and politicized judicial procedures as contributing factors.

The Deterrence Act is a response to Iran’s plot to kill President elect-Donald Trump and other Iran-led murder-for-hire attempts which US investigators have described in lengthy criminal complaints in recent months.

The bill increases criminal penalties for those who commit or attempt certain crimes on behalf of foreign adversaries, which already come with increased prison sentences.

“Foreign adversaries like Iran are working with criminal organizations in the United States to kill people on American soil,” co-sponsor Senator Maggie Hassan, a Democrat from New Hampshire, said in a statement.

Hassan added she would work with colleagues to pass this legislation as quickly as possible to send a message to Iran's rulers.

Earlier this month, the Department of Justice (DOJ) disclosed an Iranian-led plot to assassinate Donald Trump, charging a man they said had been tasked by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps to kill the Republican candidate on the campaign trail.

Farhad Shakeri, an Afghan national was identified by the FBI as an Iranian government asset who moved to America as a young child but was deported after being imprisoned on robbery charges. He allegedly hired individuals he met while in prison for the alleged plots, according to a criminal complaint unsealed in federal court in Manhattan.

Two other men were arrested on charges that Shakeri recruited them to surveil and kill prominent Iranian- American human rights activist and journalist Masih Alinejad. According to US law enforcement, Alinejad has been the victim of several Iranian murder-for-hire plots thwarted by the FBI on US soil.

Another co-sponsor, Iowa Republican Joni Ernst, said Iran has enjoyed years of “appeasement.”

“Now that the regime has become so emboldened that it even attempted to assassinate President Trump, Senator Hassan and I are taking action to ensure any bad actor thinks twice before working with our adversaries or messing with any of our citizens,” Ernst said in a statement.

Florida Democrat Representative Moskowitz, another co-sponsor who is part of a bipartisan task force investigating the assassination attempts against Donald Trump, said he is deeply disturbed by Iran's reported active attempts at targeting Americans on US soil.

“We need to send a message that any person who works with a foreign government, especially a state sponsor of terrorism like Iran, will face severe consequences for harming Americans,” he said in a statement.