German chancellor urges de-escalation after Israeli strikes on Iran

Details of the Israeli attack are still unclear. The only certainty is that the air strikes targeted air defense systems and missile production facilities, but exactly how many targets were hit and what the damage was, has not yet been disclosed.

What are Iran's options for retaliation, despite its earlier stance suggesting it might forgo a response to a limited Israeli attack to avoid prolonging the cycle of counterattacks? Iran has already launched hundreds of ballistic missiles at Israel twice this year, causing minimal damage. With no effective air force, Iran’s retaliatory capabilities are largely confined to a few types of medium-range ballistic missiles, whose accuracy remains uncertain.

Both Israel and the United States have warned Tehran not to respond to this attack. “We urge Iran to cease its attacks on Israel so that this cycle of fighting can end without further escalation,” US National Security Council spokesman Sean Savett told reporters. The US has boosted its forces in the region with the aim of deterring further Iranian attacks, especially against its Arab allies around the Persian Gulf.

Iran has around 3,000 missiles available for more attacks against Israel, but it is not so much an issue of weapons availability, as much as an issue of more Israeli counterstrikes, while Iran’s skies apparently remain defenseless. There are no reports of Iranian air defenses intercepting even one Israeli missile on October 26. There are also no reports of any fighter jets being scrambled to face Israeli planes, which probably fired their ordinance from Iraqi airspace.

This means that if Iran decides to launch another round of missiles, Israel could counterstrike by targeting assets that would significantly impact Iran's Islamic government—particularly its economic infrastructure. One major point of weakness is oil refineries that produce for the domestic market. Iran has two large refineries and even if one of them is damaged, the country would face serious problems at the onset of winter. This approach would avoid impacting global oil prices, allowing Israel to sidestep potential backlash from the US, which has advised against targeting Iran's oil production and export facilities.

In recent past, Iran’s rulers could count on their well-armed proxies, such as the Lebanese Hezbollah, to play the role of a deterrent against Israel. However, after Israeli operations that became intense in recent months, both Hezbollah and Hamas have been significantly weakened. Despite Israel’s relentless bombardment of targets in Lebanon, Hezbollah has not been able to launch tens of thousands of rockets that many feared could overwhelm air defenses.

As a result, Iran’s longstanding strategy of confronting Israel through proxies abroad appears to have faltered, with hostilities now reaching its own soil. A single major Israeli airstrike on critical economic targets could pose serious threats to the Islamic government, already grappling with multiple economic crises. An impoverished population—hard-hit over the past five years and shown to be ready to protest—may not tolerate another severe decline in living conditions.

Following Israel’s airstrikes on the Islamic Republic early Saturday, several Iranian citizens shared videos with Iran International, capturing scenes from various cities. Many citizens blamed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei for the current situation in Iran.

In messages sent to Iran International, some described being jolted awake by explosions and held Iran’s leader accountable for the turmoil and public distress. They emphasized that the Islamic Republic shows little regard for citizens' lives.

Member of the Israeli Knesset, Avigdor Liberman praised the Israeli Air Force’s precision and professionalism in targeting Iran’s military sites but argued that the strikes failed to “exact a real price” from Iran. In a post on X, he stressed that Iran would persist in its nuclear ambitions and continue funding groups like Hezbollah and the Houthis.

Liberman criticized the Israeli government for being “content with showmanship” and urged stronger action reflecting Israel's strength. He recently pointed to a Hezbollah drone incident near Prime Minister Netanyahu’s residence as proof of Iran’s unchecked aggression, calling for strikes on Iran’s strategic facilities and leadership.

Iran’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs said in a statement Saturday that the Islamic Republic is "entitled and obligated to defend against foreign aggressive actions, based on the inherent right of self-defense” and that “It highlights the individual and collective responsibility of all countries in the region to safeguard peace and stability.”

“Zionists must receive a response right now even if they managed to land one American missile in Iran, even in an insignificant location. Speediness of Iran's reaction is a component of our strength and will cause disruption to the possible continuation of the attacks,” Abdollah Ganji, the former editor of the IRGC-linked Javan newspaper tweeted after the third wave of attacks.

“Why are you so eager to involve Iran in war? War will bring nothing other than destruction to you”, one response said. “Israel will respond again and so will Iran. How long should the cycle of retaliatory attacks continue?” Another message to Ganji said, “Don’t talk nonsense, those above you made a deal behind the scenes before [the attack to not respond]”.

“Sustainable security depends on [show of] strength and strong response to the enemy’s smallest blunder,” ultra-hardliner lawmaker Amir-Hossein Sabeti tweeted. “Violation of Iran's red line and invasion of the country’s territory must be answered at a surprising level to them. The best time for responding is when they are busy in a war of attrition in Gaza and Beirut,” he contended.

Most of the comments to his post disapproved of his call to continue the conflict. “Direct conflict with Israel will only expedite the Islamic Republic’s downfall from within”, one of the comments said.

Unlike Ganji and Sabeti, some politicians appeared to be advising an end to the conflict.

“Politically analyzed, [the limited scope/impact of] the attack means Washington and Tel Aviv are seeking deterrence and the end of the revenge cycle of war,” a former head of the Iranian parliament's National Security Committee, Heshmatollah Falahatpisheh, tweeted. “Both war and diplomacy can be limited to Gaza and Lebanon now,” he added.

“The cycle [of revenge] will end when the child-killing Zionist regime is destroyed,” one of the comments to Falahatpisheh’s post read.

Many social media users contended in their posts that the Islamic Republic will downplay the impact of the Israeli air strikes even if important targets were destroyed while others warned against an Iranian response.

Esmail, a social media activist who describes himself as a barandaz (one who wants to overthrow the Islamic Republic), argued in his tweet that Iran is preparing the public opinion for not responding to Israel’s attack because all news channels of the state broadcaster are downplaying its impact.

“This means denial and preparation of [people’s] minds for not responding is on the agenda if … the level of [the impact] of the attack remains the same [as it appears now]. Israel is happy, the US is happy, the IRGC is happy [too]...,” he wrote.

“Netanyahu and his friends still have the upper hand. It is enough to publish images of the impact on the targets if they intend to [continue the] conflict but the Islamic Republic will declare victory with extensive propaganda if images are not released,” another post on X read.

Another netizen opined in a tweet that it will become clear if the Islamic Republic’s propaganda on the low impact/damage of the attack could work or not when more information becomes available. “Everything is ambiguous so far but apparently the dollar rate has gone down,” he wrote.

Iran's currency, the rial, regained some of its losses after the Israeli air strikes. The rial had fallen nearly 20% against the US dollar since August amid fears of a major military escalation with Israel.

It is bizarre and dangerous to downplay the attack on Iranian soil, Zeynab Karimian, a blogger, warned in a tweet. “Do admit that it is dangerous that [Israeli planes] easily reached the center of Tehran and left even if there were no casualties,” she added.

Strategic analyst Hossein Aghaie told Iran International that Israel chose limited targets in Iran, influenced by recommendations from the US and regional Arab countries.

Aghaie explained that Israel conducted the operation to reinforce its operational freedom and prepare for potential future actions if necessary.

He added that the attack on military facilities revealed Iran's air defense as ineffective against Israeli strikes, adding, “Israel managed to maintain its deterrence advantage, even with limited objectives.”