Mourning October 7, Israelis await response to Iran attack

Reports emerged on Saturday that Qaani might have been in Beirut following the death of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah and continued Israeli air strikes on position of the Iran-backed group. No one has heard about Qaani since October four and there are speculations that he might have been killed or injured in Israeli air strikes.

A targeted airstrike, which aimed to eliminate Hashem Safieddine, a senior Hezbollah leader and potential successor to Hassan Nasrallah, has raised speculation about Qaani’s possible presence at the bombed location. The New York Times, citing three unnamed Iranian officials, reported that Qaani had traveled to Lebanon last week to meet with Hezbollah officials in an effort to strengthen the group.

Reuters also reported on Sunday that according to Iranian officials Qaani has not been heard from since Friday. Senior Hezbollah official Mahmoud Qmati told Reuters: "I have no information, we are also searching for the truth of this matter."

While Israel’s Channel 12 suggested that Qaani might have been injured in the attack, there has been no confirmation from Iranian authorities. A Lebanese security source told Reuters that communication with Safieddine has been cut off since the strike, further fueling concerns about high-level casualties among Hezbollah leadership.

Qaani’s absence from key government ceremonies in Iran, including an event where Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei awarded a military badge to IRGC Aerospace Forces commander Amirali Hajizadeh, has only added to the growing uncertainty. Iran has not released any recent photos or videos of Qaani.

Meanwhile, in a sign of heightened tensions and amid fear of possible Israeli retaliation for last week attack, Iran's Civil Aviation Organization has canceled all flights from Sunday evening to Monday morning, citing "operational limitations." This follows a pattern seen in April when Iranian flights were suspended for nearly 48 hours after Iran launched missile attacks on Israeli positions.

At the same time, Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant responded to recent Iranian actions with a stern warning. "Whoever thinks that a mere attempt to harm us will deter us from taking action should take a look at Gaza and Beirut," Gallant stated, referring to the October 1 Iranian missile strike on two Israeli air force bases. Gallant emphasized that no Israeli aircraft or squadrons were damaged in the strike.

As tensions escalate, both sides are preparing for potential further confrontations, with Iran threatening reciprocal action if Israel launches any new attacks. Iran closed its airspace Sunday night until Monday morning.

Bennet slammed US President Joe Biden who has called for a “proportionate” response to the attack as the administration continues its policy of appeasement.

"President Biden has said that Israel can retaliate against Iran, but must keep the response 'proportionate'. The president also urged Israel not to attack Iran’s nuclear program,” he wrote on X.

He called for Israel to attack Iran’s nuclear program, its leadership and Iran’s main economic interests such as energy, arguing that the Islamic Republic has not only twice attacked Israel this year, but has helped hundreds of other attacks by its proxies.

“All of these would be only a fraction of what Iran did to Israel. So indeed it won’t be “proportional”, it’ll be much less,” he said, calling to bring down the Islamic Republic before it acquires nuclear weapons.

“This will take some time, but this week’s response must start this process,” he said. “If we don’t take out the nuclear program now, I don’t know we’ll ever do it. The mullah regime has acquired SQ10, which means enough high grade uranium to produce 10 nuclear bombs. The regime is racing towards producing the detonator device itself, while the world can no longer really track this,” he warned.

Earlier this year, the UN’s nuclear chief, Rafael Grossi, also warned that Iran is “weeks not months” away from a nuclear weapon while the country continues to bar at least one third of the UN’s inspectors.

“We might wake up to a test bomb exploding in Iran’s desert. At that moment the Middle East will become a nuclear nightmare. We have the justification and the ability. It’s time to act now,” Bennett added.

On the eve of October 7, when Iran-backed Hamas invaded Israel, Bennett also highlighted the wide reach of Iran’s proxies which have been armed and trained by Iran sitting across Israel’s borders and beyond.

Since October 7, Iran’s proxies in Lebanon, Syria, Iraq and Yemen have all launched attacks on Israel in allegiance with Hamas in Gaza.

“Iran has been terrorizing Israelis for over 30 years. It sent its terror-octopus tentacles —Hamas, Hezbollah, Islamic Jihad and more to surround and attack Israel. Iran’s regime funded, trained and armed these savage terrorists,” Bennett said.

Hezbollah alone, Iran’s largest proxy, has sent over 8,000 projectiles towards Israel since October 8. Since then, at least 63,000 Israelis have been displaced and tens of thousands more Lebanese displaced in Hezbollah-controlled southern Lebanon.

Israel has since launched a ground invasion in recent days into southern Lebanon, targeting Hezbollah's terror network including tunnels, weapons storage and launchers, in a bid to push back the group designated by countries including the US and Europe, as it tries to send its citizens home.

“A few days ago Iran directly shot 190 ballistic missiles to Israel, including city centers such as Tel Aviv. In April Iran lobbed some 350 projectiles towards Israel. Without Israel’s remarkable technology these missiles could have killed thousands of innocent people,” Bennett pointed out.

In April, Iran launched its first direct attack on Israel following an alleged Israeli airstrike on the Iranian consulate in Damascus which killed a senior Quds Force commander and multiple high ranking IRGC officials.

“So what would be a proportionate response? For Israel to murder, rape and burn thousands of innocent Iranians? We don’t do that,” Bennett added. “For Israel to shoot 10,000 rockets indiscriminately on Iranian cities? We don’t do that either. Therefore, Israel can do much less than what Iran’s regime did to us.”

Gabriel Noronha, the US State Department’s former Iran advisor, told Iran International: “A lot of what’s going to happen in Israel’s response is messaging to Iran on its nuclear program.

“Israel’s response to the April attack was a pinprick attack to an Iranian site, sending the message that there is the capability to hit these sites,” he said, Israel’s retaliation to the inaugural aerial bombardment in April hitting military sites including four small nuclear research facilities and the nearby Natanz uranium enrichment site.

Last week’s assassination of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah in an underground intelligence headquarters, “said Israel can hit depth, no matter how deep the bunker is,” said Noronha.

“My theory is in this case that Israel is doing a layered response, hitting a lot of Iran’s missile supply chain, warehouses, factories, oil infrastructure, maybe a refinery, but I think they will leave room to be able to escalate further. I suspect they’ll hit something like a centrifuge assembly factory.”

In June, the UN said that "while the [nuclear] Agency had not been able to verify the total stockpile of enriched uranium in the country since February 2021, it estimated that Iran maintains a total enriched uranium stockpile 30 times the amount allowable under the Plan of Action — including increased quantities of uranium enriched to 20 percent and 60 percent."

While the UN continues to urge Iran to readmit inspectors barred from the country, its nuclear chief says the chances are now unlikely.

Speaking in New York on the sidelines of the UN’s General Assembly, Rafael Grossi said: ”Unfortunately this ship has sailed.”

An IRGC source told Tasnim News "if Israel takes any steps, there will be no hesitation in carrying out Iran's retaliatory strike," adding that several types of counterattacks are ready to be executed depending on the nature of Israel's retaliation.

Last week, Iran launched two waves of ballistic missiles towards the Jewish state, the second direct attack on Israel this year as aggression between the two archenemies escalates to crisis levels.

Tehran-based Hamshahri newspaper, understood to be reflective of the sentiment of the hardline faction in Iran, on Sunday outlined Iran's potential targets in the event of an escalation. Among the 35 strategic locations named in the newspaper’s infographic are critical infrastructure and military facilities in Israel, understood to be part of the government's messaging to its nemesis.

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Key targets identified include the Hagit Combined Cycle Power Plant and the Orot Rabin Power Plant in Haifa, both essential to Israel's energy grid. Additionally, the Bazian Oil Refinery, Israel’s largest, and the Ashdod Oil Refinery, the second-largest, are highlighted as vital points in the country’s energy production and distribution.

Israel's gas infrastructure was also cited, with the Tamar Gas Field and the Leviathan Gas Field listed as potential targets. These facilities play a major role in Israel’s domestic energy needs and export capacity, and any disruption would significantly impact the economy.

Military sites are also among the targets, including Nevatim Air Base and Ramat David Air Base, crucial for Israel’s air defense. Civilian locations such as Ben Gurion International Airport in Tel Aviv and Ramon Airport in Eilat are also on the list.

A BBC report on Wednesday also noted that Iran's next volley of missiles could shift focus from military bases to Israeli residential areas. The report further highlighted that Iran's IRGC Navy, with its fast missile boats, could attempt to sow mines in the Strait of Hormuz, interrupting the flow of up to 20% of the world’s daily oil exports, or launch swarm attacks on US Navy vessels. Additionally, US military bases scattered throughout the region are also potentially vulnerable to Iranian strikes, according to the report.

Last week's attack caused damage in various parts of Israel, including at airbases. The Israeli military reported that despite the damage, no aircraft or critical infrastructure were hit, and the Israeli Air Force continues to operate at full capacity.

Israel is yet to respond to Tuesday’s attacks, with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu having vowed retaliation for Iran's missile strike, saying Tehran would "pay for it."

The US, a critical ally, has called for a "proportionate" response as Israel weighs its options.

This summer, Iran faced a 20,000-megawatt electricity deficit, equivalent to 25% of the country's electricity demand. Unlike previous years, Iran experienced a gas shortage alongside the electricity deficit. As a result, the consumption of fuel oil (mazut) in Iran's power plants doubled, and diesel consumption increased by 80%.

Altogether, these two polluting fuels accounted for 15% of the power plants' fuel supply. With the onset of autumn, this share has risen to 25%, and in winter, it's expected that half of the fuel used in power plants will be fuel oil and diesel, requiring the consumption of 150 million liters of liquid fuel per day in this sector.

Meanwhile, data from the Ministry of Oil shows that the country's reserves of diesel and fuel oil amount to only 1.5 billion liters. Even if no diesel or fuel oil is provided to industries or land and sea transportation, this quantity would only suffice for 10 days' worth of electricity production.

In recent years, Iran has faced a growing gasoline crisis, with average daily consumption reaching 124 million liters (nearly 33 million gallons). This winter, a severe natural gas shortage is expected to halt the supply of 20 million cubic meters of CNG daily, pushing gasoline consumption to nearly 140 million liters. However, data from the Ministry of Oil shows that the country’s strategic gasoline reserves are barely one billion liters—enough to cover just one week of domestic demand.

If Israel targets just two of Iran's refineries—such as the Persian Gulf Star and Abadan refineries—30% of the country's liquid fuel production capacity, or 800,000 barrels per day, would be lost.

A quarter of the government's budget is allocated to subsidies, which range from monthly cash handouts to heavily subsidized fuel, bread, and other essentials. These subsidies are primarily funded by the domestic and international sale of petroleum products. According to the Supreme Audit Court of Iran, in the first five months of the current fiscal year (starting March 20), the government borrowed 800 trillion rials ($1.3 billion) to cover subsidies—an amount equivalent to one-fourth of the total subsidy expenditure.

The reason for this borrowing is the sharp decline in petroleum product exports due to the significant rise in power plants' demand for fuel oil and diesel, caused by the natural gas shortage. This has resulted in a severe drop in the financial resources for subsidies.

Half of Iran's population lives in poverty, with their livelihoods dependent on government subsidies. If the country’s refineries are attacked, the government will essentially be unable to continue providing subsidies to the people.

Iran is already grappling with an inflation rate exceeding 40%, and the elimination of subsidies and a surge in fuel prices would trigger hyperinflation.

This summer, due to the electricity shortage, Iran's steel production and exports, which account for 16% of the country's non-oil exports, sharply declined. It is expected that this winter, the production of petrochemical products, which make up 30% of non-oil exports, will also drop significantly due to the severe gas shortage.

Iran's winter gas shortage is projected to reach 250 million cubic meters per day, accounting for 25% of the country’s total gas demand. If oil refineries are attacked, the government could lose its ability to supply fuel to power plants, exacerbating the energy crisis.

Crude oil revenues would also be severely impacted in case of an attack on Iran’s production infrastructure. Despite a significant rise in the country's oil exports, only 74% of the government’s oil revenue target has been met in the first five months of the current fiscal year. Even if only the Kharg oil terminal is attacked, Iran would lose 90% of its oil export capacity.

Last year, Iran's oil and petroleum product exports totaled $36 billion, which accounted for 8% of the country's total GDP and nine months of the government's general budget.

"The IDF [Israeli military] is preparing a response to the unprecedented and unlawful Iranian attack on Israeli civilians and Israel," the official, speaking anonymously due to lack of authorization to discuss the matter publicly, told AFP. However, he provided no further details regarding the nature or timing of the potential Israeli retaliation.

Israel’s newspaper Haaretz cited military sources confirming that the planned response would be "significant."

"The IDF is preparing for a significant strike in Iran following this week's missile attack from Tehran," the paper reported. Additionally, Haaretz noted that the military has not ruled out the possibility of further missile launches from Iran after Israel retaliates.

The Iranian missile strike on Tuesday involved around 180 missiles targeting Israel, marking Iran’s second direct assault on Israel in less than six months.

A former IDF spokesperson suggested that Israel’s response could include high-profile targets such as "regime symbols," including the residence of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and key Iranian officials. Though these actions carry significant risks, they remain possible options, according to the retired Lt. Colonel Jonathan Conricus. In an episode of the podcast Eye for Iran this week, Conricus, now a senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD), indicated that Israel is likely to retaliate strongly, but many strategic factors will influence the final decision.

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Since Iran's attack, unconfirmed reports have surfaced suggesting that the potential successor to the late Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah, killed last week, has been unreachable since Friday, following an Israeli airstrike that allegedly targeted him, according to a Lebanese security source on Saturday.

Meanwhile, Israel’s Channel 12 has reported that Esmail Ghaani, the commander of the IRGC's Quds Force, was likely present and injured in the Israeli strike in southern Beirut aimed at Hashem Safieddine, head of Hezbollah's executive council. Although the hardline website Mehr initially dismissed these reports, the content has since been removed from their site.

Despite rising tensions, Iranian Oil Minister Mohsen Paknejad expressed confidence on Saturday, stating he was "not worried" about a regional conflict, even after reports suggesting an imminent Israeli strike on Iran. Speaking to the ministry’s Shana news site, Paknejad said, "I am not worried about the crises that the enemies of the revolution are creating, and this trip is considered a normal work trip."

Paknejad made these remarks during a visit to Assaluyeh, a major hub for Iran’s exploitation of the world’s largest offshore gas field, which it shares with Qatar in the Persian Gulf.

US officials remain divided on the recommendations they offer Israel regarding potential targets in Iran. President Joe Biden, who initially ruled out endorsing strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities, later extended this caution to include Iran’s oil infrastructure. This shift in stance has led analysts to speculate that the administration may be signaling a preference for targeting Iran's military bases, steering away from actions that could escalate into broader economic or environmental fallout.

“It appears that his unspoken intentions are more revealing than his words. Suppose oil or nuclear facilities are off-limits as potential targets. In that case, the logical focus will shift to military assets,” Kamran Matin, Senior Lecturer in International Relations at the University of Sussex, told Iran International TV.

“I believe the Biden administration may not only refrain from condemning but could implicitly endorse Israeli strikes on missile bases, production facilities, or even on the leadership and strongholds of the IRGC's Quds Force,” he added.

The Biden administration would prefer no major shock to oil prices four weeks before presidential elections, which could hurt the chances of Vice President Kamala Harris.

Reuters also reported that, according to numerous experts, including over half a dozen former military, intelligence, and diplomatic officials from the US and the Middle East, Israel is less likely to target the oil facilities that form the backbone of Iran's economy or its nuclear sites.

Meanwhile, former President Donald Trump, in an interview with Fox News on Friday, criticized President Biden’s stance, asserting that it was a mistake for the administration to signal that the United States would withhold support for an Israeli strike on Iran’s nuclear program.