Mourning October 7, Israelis await response to Iran attack
As Israel mourns the more than 1,100 deaths from October 7 and the 101 hostages still held by Iran-backed Hamas in Gaza, the country awaits a response to last week’s Iranian missile barrage.
As Israel mourns the more than 1,100 deaths from October 7 and the 101 hostages still held by Iran-backed Hamas in Gaza, the country awaits a response to last week’s Iranian missile barrage.
While honoring the fallen, including hundreds of IDF soldiers lost in the war in both Gaza and south Lebanon in Israel’s war against Iran’s proxies, the country still wonders when Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will wreak the revenge promised for last week’s 181 ballistic missiles, an underlying topic which bubbles beneath the surface.
The assassination of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah boosted the premier in public opinion amidst the country’s longest war, and now, Israelis want more. The mood was dampened soon after, however, as at least nine soldiers fell in Israel’s ground operation in southern Lebanon.
Just like Iran’s delayed retaliation to the July 31 killing of Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran, Israel is biding its time, allowing the country to enjoy celebrations, albeit muted, for the new year, and now, the commemorations of October 7, in peace.
Not only is this a psychological war, but Israel must now weigh its options along with its powerful ally, the US, which has warned the response must be “proportional”.
President Joe Biden, known for his softly softly approach to Iran, still wields power over the Jewish state, with Israel’s Defense Minister, Yoav Gallant, scheduled to visit the US to discuss strategy on Wednesday.
On Monday, marking one year since the bloodshed of October 7, when Iran-backed Hamas launched an air, land, and sea invasion of Israel, Israeli media focused on those lost in the deadliest single day for Jews since the Holocaust. The attack shocked the world, targeting one of the most militarily advanced nations.
But Iran is always lurking behind the scenes. Danielle Edelstein, a mother of four who lives in Tel Aviv, told Iran International: “Of course none of us knows what’s going to happen, but something has to happen. Last week’s attack was something no state can tolerate.”
For Netanyahu, whose popularity fluctuates almost daily, the response is crucial to his political survival. With each reminder of the horrors of October 7, the growing resentment toward Israel’s longest-serving premier becomes increasingly evident.
Israel’s Maariv newspaper surveyed the country last month, finding 47% felt he was most suitable for Prime Minister, even before the assassination of Nasrallah. That was a huge boost from polls in the wake of October 7 when around 70% of the country called for his resignation.
Last week, a Channel 12 poll also showed that Netanyahu’s Likud party would win a new election.
It has been the result of a series of killings, including leader of Hamas’s military wing, Mohammed Deif, in Gaza, the brazen killing of Haniyeh in Tehran, though Israel did not admit responsibility, and most recently, Nasrallah.
The IDF has been steadily wiping out the leadership of Hezbollah as airstrikes pound the group designated in countries such as the UK, US and Europe.
“We needed to see he was doing something,” said Ruthy Tuito, whose son is in the reserves. “We had so much inaction for such a long time, that these things give us hope that the government is standing up to the threats,” she told Iran International.
On Monday morning, marking the one-year anniversary, while commemorations were held at killing sites, Hamas launched more missiles at the time of the attacks last year, sirens first heard at 06:29.
Meanwhile, Hezbollah continued its assault on Israel’s north as the IDF pounds military infrastructure and advances airstrikes in Hezbollah infrastructure in Beirut.
Iran’s proxy in Iraq also sent projectiles in the early hours of Monday morning, intercepted by the IDF, identifying the source only as “from the East”, usually reflective of those coming from Iraq.
“This isn’t going to end without some kind of more affirmative action,” said Roni Avrahami, who has been serving in the reserves since the beginning of the war. “No country can live like this. Nobody wants more war, but we need to take action and we need our allies to stand by us in the process. This is not an enemy which deals with diplomatic solutions.”
Israel is already battling threats on all its borders, the Iran-backed Houthis in the south on the Red Sea coast, and proxies in Syria, Lebanon, Gaza, the West Bank, and Iraq.
But for now, the question is when, not if, the country will retaliate for the second attack from Iran this year, and one which no nation would be able to let pass.
An IRGC source told Tasnim News "if Israel takes any steps, there will be no hesitation in carrying out Iran's retaliatory strike," adding that several types of counterattacks are ready to be executed depending on the nature of Israel's retaliation.
Last week, Iran launched two waves of ballistic missiles towards the Jewish state, the second direct attack on Israel this year as aggression between the two archenemies escalates to crisis levels.
Tehran-based Hamshahri newspaper, understood to be reflective of the sentiment of the hardline faction in Iran, on Sunday outlined Iran's potential targets in the event of an escalation. Among the 35 strategic locations named in the newspaper’s infographic are critical infrastructure and military facilities in Israel, understood to be part of the government's messaging to its nemesis.
Key targets identified include the Hagit Combined Cycle Power Plant and the Orot Rabin Power Plant in Haifa, both essential to Israel's energy grid. Additionally, the Bazian Oil Refinery, Israel’s largest, and the Ashdod Oil Refinery, the second-largest, are highlighted as vital points in the country’s energy production and distribution.
Israel's gas infrastructure was also cited, with the Tamar Gas Field and the Leviathan Gas Field listed as potential targets. These facilities play a major role in Israel’s domestic energy needs and export capacity, and any disruption would significantly impact the economy.
Military sites are also among the targets, including Nevatim Air Base and Ramat David Air Base, crucial for Israel’s air defense. Civilian locations such as Ben Gurion International Airport in Tel Aviv and Ramon Airport in Eilat are also on the list.
A BBC report on Wednesday also noted that Iran's next volley of missiles could shift focus from military bases to Israeli residential areas. The report further highlighted that Iran's IRGC Navy, with its fast missile boats, could attempt to sow mines in the Strait of Hormuz, interrupting the flow of up to 20% of the world’s daily oil exports, or launch swarm attacks on US Navy vessels. Additionally, US military bases scattered throughout the region are also potentially vulnerable to Iranian strikes, according to the report.
Last week's attack caused damage in various parts of Israel, including at airbases. The Israeli military reported that despite the damage, no aircraft or critical infrastructure were hit, and the Israeli Air Force continues to operate at full capacity.
Israel is yet to respond to Tuesday’s attacks, with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu having vowed retaliation for Iran's missile strike, saying Tehran would "pay for it."
The US, a critical ally, has called for a "proportionate" response as Israel weighs its options.
"The IDF [Israeli military] is preparing a response to the unprecedented and unlawful Iranian attack on Israeli civilians and Israel," the official, speaking anonymously due to lack of authorization to discuss the matter publicly, told AFP. However, he provided no further details regarding the nature or timing of the potential Israeli retaliation.
Israel’s newspaper Haaretz cited military sources confirming that the planned response would be "significant."
"The IDF is preparing for a significant strike in Iran following this week's missile attack from Tehran," the paper reported. Additionally, Haaretz noted that the military has not ruled out the possibility of further missile launches from Iran after Israel retaliates.
The Iranian missile strike on Tuesday involved around 180 missiles targeting Israel, marking Iran’s second direct assault on Israel in less than six months.
A former IDF spokesperson suggested that Israel’s response could include high-profile targets such as "regime symbols," including the residence of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and key Iranian officials. Though these actions carry significant risks, they remain possible options, according to the retired Lt. Colonel Jonathan Conricus. In an episode of the podcast Eye for Iran this week, Conricus, now a senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD), indicated that Israel is likely to retaliate strongly, but many strategic factors will influence the final decision.
Since Iran's attack, unconfirmed reports have surfaced suggesting that the potential successor to the late Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah, killed last week, has been unreachable since Friday, following an Israeli airstrike that allegedly targeted him, according to a Lebanese security source on Saturday.
Meanwhile, Israel’s Channel 12 has reported that Esmail Ghaani, the commander of the IRGC's Quds Force, was likely present and injured in the Israeli strike in southern Beirut aimed at Hashem Safieddine, head of Hezbollah's executive council. Although the hardline website Mehr initially dismissed these reports, the content has since been removed from their site.
Despite rising tensions, Iranian Oil Minister Mohsen Paknejad expressed confidence on Saturday, stating he was "not worried" about a regional conflict, even after reports suggesting an imminent Israeli strike on Iran. Speaking to the ministry’s Shana news site, Paknejad said, "I am not worried about the crises that the enemies of the revolution are creating, and this trip is considered a normal work trip."
Paknejad made these remarks during a visit to Assaluyeh, a major hub for Iran’s exploitation of the world’s largest offshore gas field, which it shares with Qatar in the Persian Gulf.
US officials remain divided on the recommendations they offer Israel regarding potential targets in Iran. President Joe Biden, who initially ruled out endorsing strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities, later extended this caution to include Iran’s oil infrastructure. This shift in stance has led analysts to speculate that the administration may be signaling a preference for targeting Iran's military bases, steering away from actions that could escalate into broader economic or environmental fallout.
“It appears that his unspoken intentions are more revealing than his words. Suppose oil or nuclear facilities are off-limits as potential targets. In that case, the logical focus will shift to military assets,” Kamran Matin, Senior Lecturer in International Relations at the University of Sussex, told Iran International TV.
“I believe the Biden administration may not only refrain from condemning but could implicitly endorse Israeli strikes on missile bases, production facilities, or even on the leadership and strongholds of the IRGC's Quds Force,” he added.
The Biden administration would prefer no major shock to oil prices four weeks before presidential elections, which could hurt the chances of Vice President Kamala Harris.
Reuters also reported that, according to numerous experts, including over half a dozen former military, intelligence, and diplomatic officials from the US and the Middle East, Israel is less likely to target the oil facilities that form the backbone of Iran's economy or its nuclear sites.
Meanwhile, former President Donald Trump, in an interview with Fox News on Friday, criticized President Biden’s stance, asserting that it was a mistake for the administration to signal that the United States would withhold support for an Israeli strike on Iran’s nuclear program.