Iran International
Israel's retaliation options after Iran's largest missile barrage may include "regime symbols" like Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's residence and targeting officials, which, while risky, are not off the table, according to a former IDF spokesperson.
Retired Lt. Colonel Jonathan Conricus, a senior fellow at Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD), on this week's episode of Eye for Iran , said Israel will likely retaliate in a strong way but there are a lot of factors to consider.
"Israel will retaliate strongly in a way that will be painful for the regime," he said.
In order to understand what Israel's next move will be, Conricus said first one must determine what Israel's end game and strategy are, and what it hopes to achieve.
He believes Israel will start by stripping away the defensive capabilities of the Islamic Republic like its air defenses and some of its offensive capabilities like its missile bases.
Iran possesses various missile systems, among them are ballistic missiles, which reportedly have a range of up to 2,000 kilometers. That includes the Ghadr-110, a ballistic missile with a range of 1,800 kilometers, and the Emad, which Iranian officials said is capable of precision strikes.
The key, the former IDF spokesperson believes, is to cut Iran off from its access to external funds to prevent it from funding proxies in the region like Hezbollah, Hamas and the Houthis.
Conricus foresees multiple strikes across Iran that are both economic-related and also represent the core of the Islamic government.
When asked what he meant by "regime-related symbols," he responded anything that symbolizes the Islamic Republic, including Basij headquarters or the Supreme Leader's official residence in Tehran.
"There's a lot of targets in Tehran itself, but also all around the country that are symbols of Iran's military establishment, of the IRGC and of the regime. I don't think that Israel will strike any religious targets, but I think that they will strike targets that are of significant symbolic value."
When it comes to the big question over striking Iran's nuclear capabilities, Conricus remains unsure and weary of the consequences.
On one hand, he said, Israel's time is now in terms of opportunity but Iran has allegedly 15 nuclear sites, and striking them, may actually push the Iranian government towards a quicker breakout and enrichment. Conricus believes anything nuclear related must be strategic and well planned out. He suggested the possibility of targeting the top 5 locations where weaponization and high-level enrichment are conducted.
US President Joe Biden said on Wednesday he would not support any Israeli strike on Iran's nuclear sites in response to its ballistic missile attack and urged Israel to act "proportionally."
After opposing a strike on nuclear facilities, Biden suggested on Friday during a press briefing in Washington DC that Israel not hit Iran's oil fields either.
Just how much support the US will provide Israel, will also factor into their decision-making on how to retaliate against Iran, he said.
Conricus admits there are many Israelis who believe striking Iran should be done in a way to give the Iranian people a message.
"The Iranians, obviously, undoubtedly are very brave. They've taken to the streets and confronted a ruthless and cruel and oppressive regime, trying to shake free from this oppression. But sadly, they never got any external help. in terms of funding, not in terms of weapons, not in terms of political structure. And eventually, sadly, the regime was able to kill, jail, or otherwise torture and silence people," he added.
He found the timing and messaging of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's video to the address to the Iranian people in the midst of fighting a telling and revealing moment.
On Monday the Israeli Prime Minister directly addressed the Iranian people to predict the nigh downfall of their rulers.
Stopping short of pledging any direct action by the Jewish state itself, Netanyahu said the Iranian theocratic system that his country was confronting would soon end.
Conricus told Iran International that these days are "historic" and that he hopes "Israel will change 20 years of failed policy towards the Islamic Republic of Iran."
To find out more from the Podcast interview, you can watch he full episode on YouTube or listen on Spotify, Castbox, Apple, or Amazon.
