Iran’s retaliation is taking longer than expected - US intelligence sources

While initial assessments had predicted an early attack this week, the latest information says any retaliation may now be postponed, reported Al Arabiya.

It is believed that Iran waited until after Wednesday’s meeting of the Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) in Jeddah before taking any action.

Iran’s Acting Foreign Minister Ali Bagheri-Kani traveled Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, leading a delegation to attend an extraordinary meeting of the Executive Committee of Foreign Ministers of the OIC. The meeting discussed the implications of the assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran last week.

Kani called on Muslim countries to support Iran's right to defend itself against "acts of aggression". Saudi Arabia supported Iran's position, saying the assassination was a "blatant violation" of Iran's sovereignty.

Iran has blamed Israel and the US for the killing of Haniyeh and has vowed to "avenge" his blood, however, the delay in retaliation has raised questions. White House officials said Tuesday that they believe President Joe Biden’s efforts to prevent a war in the Middle East "may be paying off" and "Iran may be reconsidering a plan for major retaliation" following the killing of the Hamas chief in Tehran, according to the Washington Post.

"The Iranian response has been complicated by seeming confusion over the circumstances of Haniyeh’s death. Tehran at first claimed he was killed by an Israeli missile, requiring a similar Iranian response. But officials say that Tehran has concluded privately that he was instead eliminated by a concealed bomb, perhaps prompting a different response," read the article.

Tehran may also be dissuaded by the US show of force this week, and secret White House communications passed via the Swiss embassy in Tehran and the Iranian mission at the United Nations, the report said.

“Iran understands clearly that the US is unwavering in its defense of our interests, our partners and our people. We have moved a significant amount of military assets to the region to underscore that principle,” a senior administration official told The Washington Post’s David Ignatius.

In another development, German airline giant Lufthansa announced on Wednesday that it will avoid using Iranian and Iraqi airspace until August 13, extending its earlier decision due to high tensions in the Middle East. In addition to this, Lufthansa has extended the suspension of its services to Tel Aviv, Tehran, Beirut, Amman, and Erbil until the same date.

Regional and international reactions

Egypt's Foreign Minister Badr Abdel-Aty expressed concerns about regional stability in a phone call with Bagheri-Kani. Egypt has instructed all its aircraft to avoid Iran's airspace for a three-hour period early Thursday, amid fears of an Iranian retaliatory strike against Israel.

The United States and Australia have denounced Iran's destabilizing behavior, including its support for armed proxies and militant partners. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin III, along with Australian counterparts, condemned threats to shipping and freedom of navigation in the Persian Gulf, Red Sea, and Gulf of Aden, stressing the need to defend navigational rights and freedoms.

Swiss Foreign Minister Ignazio Cassis also highlighted Switzerland’s dedication to prioritizing restraint during a phone call with Bagheri-Kani, emphasizing the need for moderation and diplomacy.

Israeli perspectives

Israeli Foreign Minister Israel Katz emphasized that the election of Yahya Sinwar as the leader of Hamas signals that the Palestinian issue is now significantly controlled by Iran and Hamas. Katz warned of the consequences of Israel withdrawing its military presence in Gaza, noting the regional threats posed by Iran. He proposed a solution of Palestinian self-management in Judea and Samaria, with Israel maintaining control over security and foreign affairs to prevent another Iranian stronghold.

Defense Minister Yoav Gallant warned Hezbollah that further escalation could lead to substantial damage to Lebanon. "As things stand, Nasrallah could lead Lebanon to pay a very, very heavy price. They can't imagine what could happen," he told Israeli troops. Gallant discussed threats posed by Iran and its proxies with his German counterpart Boris Pistorius, calling for global unity against Iran.

This comes as a Hezbollah commander responsible for anti-tank guided missile fire on northern Israel was killed in an air strike earlier Wednesday, according to the IDF. Hassan Fares Jeshi was killed in southern Lebanon, with Israeli fighter jets also striking Hezbollah buildings in Aitaroun.

Iran's stance

Despite the lack of immediate action, Iranian officials continue to keep their rhetoric strong. President Masoud Pezeshkian accused Israel of inciting conflict through its “criminal and terrorist actions in Gaza and the assassination of Ismail Haniyeh” during a phone call with French President Emmanuel Macron on Wednesday. He criticized the US and Western countries for “supporting these actions instead of condemning them,” stating they have aided in “committing crimes, genocide, and terrorism.” Pezeshkian urged for a ceasefire, emphasizing that Iran is committed to peace and the defense of its interests under international law.

Iranian army commander Abdolrahim Mousavi on Wednesday issued a warning to Israel, asserting that their actions will not go unanswered. "These crimes and assassinations by the Zionist regime will not go unanswered and will receive a definite and decisive response," he said.

In a phone conversation with British Foreign Secretary David Lammy, Bagheri-Kani also criticized European countries for their passive stance on Haniyeh's assassination, holding the US, UK, and France responsible for what he described as the actions of the sole “malevolent entity” in the region.

Britain and Egypt asked their airlines on Wednesday to avoid Iranian and Lebanese airspace amid growing fears of a possible broader conflict in the region after the killing of senior members of militant groups Hamas and Hezbollah.

Britain's advisory to its airlines to avoid Lebanon's airspace came hours after Egypt instructed all of its airlines to avoid Iran's airspace for three hours in the early morning on Thursday.

Many airlines globally are revising their schedules to avoid Iranian and Lebanese airspace while also calling off flights to Israel and Lebanon.

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A comparison of flight operations on August 5 and August 8 at 03:30 am (Tehran time) or 00:00 (GMT) shows the airspace of western Iran and Iraq has been almost completely cleared, as the region braces for Iran's retaliatory attack on Israel.

The IRGC- affiliated Sabereen News agency said Iran is holding "military exercises" in western Iran. "The sounds heard in western Iran are due to military exercises and they will continue until around 7am (local time)," the Telegram channel said.

The State Department statement said it is looking for "information leading to the identification or location" of the suspects.

The six Iranian officials named in the advisory are linked to Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and its Cyber-Electronic Command (IRGC-CEC).

They are accused of compromising industrial control systems, specifically targeting the Vision series of programmable logic controllers (PLCs) manufactured by Israel-based Unitronics. These PLCs are widely used in various industries, including water and wastewater, energy, food and beverage, manufacturing, and healthcare.

The men identified include Hamid Reza Lashgarian. head of the IRGC’s cyber-electronic command and a commander in the IRGC-Qods Force.

The officials have been linked to the hacking group CyberAv3ngers. In October, CyberAv3ngers publicly took credit for cyberattacks against Israeli PLCs, and starting in November, they compromised the default credentials in these PLCs across the US, leaving messages on the devices’ digital screens with anti-Israel statements. These compromises often rendered the devices inoperative.

On February 2, the US imposed sanctions on the same six individuals for their “deliberate targeting of critical infrastructure.” A Treasury Department official condemned the attacks as “unconscionable and dangerous,” emphasizing that the US “will not tolerate such actions and will use the full range of our tools and authorities to hold the perpetrators to account.”

The IRGC-CEC was previously sanctioned by the US in 2018 and designated a terror group in 2019.

The individuals were named as Specially Designated Nationals under Executive Order (E.O.) 13224, which targets leaders and officials of terrorist organizations.

The sanctions block all property and interests in property of the designated officials within the US or controlled by US citizens and generally prohibit US citizens from engaging in transactions with them.

Many are left wondering could the Egyptian warning to pilots against using Iran’s airspace early Thursday be the window that Iran will use to retaliate against Israel.

Experts advise caution on reaching conclusions just yet. The answer, they said, is not a simple yes or no, but rather a myriad of reasons.

"No one has a clear sense of Iran's timing for a response," Bessma Momani, a Professor of Political Science at the University of Waterloo in Canada, told Iran International.

Momani said it would be be highly unusual for Iran to share information of a potential strike on Israel with Egypt.

"Regional actors are trying to get prepared and to signal their preparedness but I doubt Egypt would be privy to any information on when or if Iran and its allies plan on responding to Israel with a military attack," she added.

"Cordial but not warm," is how Momani described Egypt-Iran relations.