Egypt warns airlines against flying over Iran’s airspace in ‘unusual’ notice

Iran has been threatening to launch a direct missile attack against Israel to avenge the July 31 assassination of Hamas chief Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran, despite calls for restraint by its friends and foes. However, this desire for vengeance is apparently not shared by all high-ranking officials in Tehran, as there are voices expressing concern about the potential repercussions.

In a recent meeting with Khamenei, President Pezeshkian urged the 85-year-old ruler Khamenei to prevent any direct Iranian attack on Israel to avoid escalating tensions into an unwanted war, the informed sources told Iran International. This potential conflict, Pezeshkian warned, could severely disrupt his presidency and lead to significant problems. 

Pezeshkian cautioned that a decision by Israel to launch harsh retaliatory attack against Iran's national infrastructure and energy resources could cripple the Iranian economy and potentially lead to the country's collapse.

Despite the grave warnings, sources said, Khamenei remained noncommittal during the session, neither supporting nor opposing Pezeshkian’s concerns.

Pezeshkian further warned about the rhetoric and actions of senior military commanders that could drag the country into war, noting that he faces relentless pressure from factions within the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) who demand a strong military response against Israel, regardless of the significant social and economic costs involved, said the sources who requested anonymity due to the sensitivity of the case.

The president asserted that his opposition to military action is rooted in national interest and not due to a lack of knowledge or experience in security and military matters, as claimed by hardliners. He stressed that initiating a war with Israel would make economic recovery and bridging the already deep divide between the Islamic Republic and its citizens impossible, severely damaging Iran's international standing, which the country desperately needs to improve.

IRGC Chief-Commander Hossein Salami on Monday said Israel will learn a lesson once it receives Iran's "severe response". Iranian authorities also told Arab countries that the country no longer cares whether its attack on Israel will trigger an all-out war in the Middle East, a report by The Wall Street Journal said.

Last week, a close aide to Pezeshkian told The Telegraph that the security lapse that resulted in Ismail Haniyeh's killing in Iran "may have been an intentional bid by the IRGC to harm the new president’s reputation. “No unharmed brain can accept that this happened by accident, especially on Pezeshkian’s first day in office,” he said. “He may have to go to war with Israel in his first few days in office and it’s all because of the IRGC.”

The president’s private plea for restraint contrasts with his public statements affirming Iran’s right to respond to Israel’s killing of Haniyeh, though he has largely avoided using inflammatory language and even told world leaders Tehran does not seek escalation.

In comments on Wednesday, Pezeshkian made it clear that he would not question the policies dictated by the Supreme Leader in public and in his meetings with foreign officials. “At the inauguration and swearing-in ceremonies, I was told to speak about the country's problems, but the fourteenth government does not permit itself to criticize Iran in front of other nations."

Pezeshkian said in a Monday meeting with top Russian security official Sergei Shoigu that "Iran is by no means seeking to expand the scope of the crisis in the region, but this regime will certainly receive a response for its crimes and arrogance." Shoigu was visiting Tehran to convey Vladimir Putin’s message of de-escalation to Iranian authorities.

The Iranian president also told his French counterpart Emmanuel Macron on Wednesday that “Iran reserves the right to give an appropriate response” to Israel’s killing of Ismail Haniyeh, without repeating the harshly worded statements of the Islamic Republic’s Supreme Leader and military authorities. 

In his recent meeting with Khamenei, the newly elected president emphasized the importance of “citizens' trust in their elected representatives”, highlighting the low voter turnout in the recent presidential election as an indicator of deep-seated distrust, the sources told Iran International.

Iran’s 2024 presidential election -- held almost a year early, after President Ebrahim Raisi died in a helicopter crash in May – witnessed the lowest-ever voter turnout rate in the history of the Islamic Republic.

More than 16 million voted for Pezeshkian, according to official figures, many in the hope of preventing hardliners from heading all three branches of government, even though Pezeshkian himself announced he will be implementing the policies dictated by Ali Khamenei.

Though they admitted their actions fell short of "standards", the social media backlash to the video was so intense that the Tehran Military Prosecutor also responded, stating that the video was meant solely for judicial purposes and should not have been released to the public.

He also said that the officers have been identified and legally summoned for their behaviour.

On Tuesday, the reformist website Ensaf News published the video which shows two unveiled teenage girls in a street in northern Tehran. A police van pulls up, and officers jump out, violently pulling the girls from the street and taking them to the van. One of the girls fervently tries to resist, but both are ultimately taken in.

The outlet noted that the video dates back to June and featured an interview with the mother of the 14-year-old girl who resisted the police. The mother described finding her daughter in a dire physical condition at the morality police detention center.

Ensaf News, quoting the mother, reported that "the officers slammed my daughter's head against a power box and, after forcibly placing her into the van, continued to beat her ... I found my daughter with a bruised face, swollen lips, a discolored neck, torn clothes, and she could barely speak".

"Her eyes were swollen shut from excessive crying," she recounted.

The report also revealed that the mother had considered filing a complaint since her daughter is under legal age. However, she was discouraged by warnings that doing so would involve the security and intelligence police and would be "costly."

The authorities also told her that two fingers of a female officer were "broken" and suggested that if she refrains from filing a complaint, they could request the officer not to press charges.

Reza Shafakhah, the lawyer representing the girls, wrote on X that he informed the judge that the officers had no legal grounds to detain his client for not adhering to the compulsory hijab.

The judge replied that it was not an arrest but an “invitation to the police station for administrative purposes.” Shafakhah posted a video stating, “The video below illustrates how the officers issue these so-called invitations.”

Mohammad Aghazadeh, a seasoned journalist in Iran, also wrote on X that the behavior only “plants the seeds of hatred that can only result in rebellion and rage.”

Journalist Aida Ghajar wrote on X that the violence against the teenager “transcends the issue of women's rights and compulsory hijab.”

She said that “it is imperative that child rights advocates and educators also engage with this matter. Nafas is, after all, a student."

Ensaf News reported that the arrest by the police was part of the Nour Plan initiative, which started in April. Iran's authorities have escalated physical efforts to enforce its strict hijab regulations in response to the plan, which has led to a surge in violent crackdowns targeting women on Iranian streets.

The enforcement of mandatory hijab was a significant topic in the election debates. While all presidential candidates concurred that violence is not an appropriate method for enforcing hijab regulations, it appears there has been no change in the conduct of Nour Plan officers towards women.

In July, the acting chief of police asserted that the same policies will persist under the new government. Ahmad Vahidi, the Interior Minister of the Islamic Republic, also defended the government's mandatory hijab policy. He reported that, over the past three years, 23,000 people have been mobilized to enforce the mandatory hijab on Iranian citizens.

This latest incident also comes nearly a month before the anniversary of Mahsa Amini’s death in police custody in 2022. Amini, 22, was arrested for allegedly wearing her hijab improperly, and her death triggered months-long protests across the country, challenging the authority of the Islamic Republic.

Asif Merchant, 46, faces a charge of murder for hire after prosecutors say he paid $5,000 to an undercover FBI agent posing as a hitman.

Merchant, who frequently traveled to Iran, Syria, and Iraq and allegedly has a wife and children in Iran, reportedly discussed a complex plot targeting a political figure under heavy security. He was arrested in July and is currently being held in New York.

According to the Justice Department's indictment, Merchant arrived in the US from Pakistan in April following a two-week stay in Iran. Upon arrival, he contacted an individual he believed could facilitate the assassination plot. This contact, however, reported Merchant to the authorities.

The indictment describes how Merchant allegedly made a "finger gun" gesture when discussing his intentions and emphasized that the operation would not be a "one-time opportunity" and would be "ongoing", suggesting other plots may be afoot. He purportedly planned to leave the US before the targets were killed, maintaining communication through code words.

In June, the contact introduced Merchant to undercover FBI agents posing as hitmen. Merchant allegedly instructed them to steal documents from the home of a target, stage protests at political rallies, and assassinate a "political person." The targets were to be revealed in late August or early September.

While the indictment does not specify the targets, sources have indicated that Trump was one of them. The former president, who ordered the killing of Quds Force commander Qassem Soleimani in 2020, is already under increased security measures due to an Iranian plot against him, revealed in June. Iranian officials have repeatedly threatened revenge against Trump, former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and former National Security Advisor John Bolton for Soleimani's targeted killing.

FBI Director Christopher Wray described the latest scheme as a "dangerous murder-for-hire plot straight out of the Iranian playbook." He stressed that any foreign-directed plot against a US official is a severe threat to national security and will be met with the full force of the FBI.

The plot is unrelated to a previous assassination attempt on Trump at a rally in Butler, Pennsylvania, on July 13, where a Secret Service sniper shot a 20-year-old assailant.

The Iranian media and social media users have particularly accused the President of giving top jobs to two politicians, Hamid Pourmohamadi as head of the Planning and Budget Organization, and Shahram Dabiri as Vice President for Parliamentary Affairs.

According to Iranian media, Pourmohamadi was implicated in a financial corruption case as top suspect in 2011 and was jailed for some time for that. According to the official news agency IRNA, Dabiri was also implicated in a financial corruption case at the Tabriz Municipality and was arrested in 2020 by the IRGC Intelligence Organization. However, he was cleared of the charges later.

Pourmohamadi's supporters in the centrist daily Sazandegi have characterized him as an economic technocrat who has served Iran's previous governments.

Meanwhile, Tehran Municipality's daily newspaper Hamshari has said that Iranians are not happy about the appointments by Pezeshkian. According to Hamshahri, contrary to promises made by the President and his aides, most of those he has so far appointed are aging politicians.

The daily has also charged that Pezeshkian has selected his aides and ministers, who have not been officially named yet, from among his friends and politically likeminded groups. The daily claimed that the public's attitude toward the new appointees is negative.

According to Rouydad24website, Shahram Dabiri is one of several medical doctors Pezeshkian has appointed to executive positions. Dabiri is the owner of a sports club in Tabriz and has held positions at the city's local council and university and is a shareholder of a major hospital in Tabriz. He has studied in Iran, Japan and Russia in the area of nuclear medicine. As a young man, he fought in the war against Iraq in the 1980s alongside Pezeshkian.

Meanwhile, quoting reformist daily Shargh, the website has characterized Pourmohammadi as the shadow governor of Iran's Cenral Bank, and pointed out that he has worked with the governments of President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and President Hassan Rouhani. Iranian media have said that he opposes the idea of merger of Iran's numerous government banks. He was once dismissed from the Iranian Central bank in 2008 for the same reason. He was jailed in 2011 for involvement in a financial corruption case but was released on bail after one month.

Accusations on social media sometimes go beyond charges of financial corruption. Some social media activists have charged that while Pezeshkian won the election by promising to improve relations with the West, on his first day in office he lashed out at the United States and strongly supported Hamas and similar groups in the Middle East. Another activist said that Pezeshkian has a limited mental capacity and keeps repeating himself.

Iranian journalist Farborz Kalantari wrote that Dabiri and his children run a commercial network in medicine and sports. Another journalist, Ali Gholhaki pointed out that Pezeshkian's political rivals have managed to block his choice for the post of Culture Minister and impose a hardline figure on the cabinet.

Meanwhile, several social media users posted a video of clashes at the Tabriz University in 2021 and accused Dabiri of instigating violence among the supporters of various candidates in the city's local Council election.

His selection of Mohamad Ja'far Ghaempanah as Vice President for Executive Affairs has faced criticism due to his two-decade absence from executive roles. However, many have praised Ghaempanah's courage for siding with protesters during the 2022 nationwide uprising.

The international deputy of the Iranian Judiciary Kazem Gharibabadi in an interview with Lebanese Al-Mayadeen TV called for a response even “more decisive” than “Operation True Promise”, the missile and drone attack on Israel in April. Iran launched around 350 missiles and drones at Israel retaliation to an attack on the its embassy in Damascus.

“The aggressor should be punished, …, a punishment that conveys the message of deterrence and authority to the enemy,” the Revolutionary Guards (IRGC) linked Javan newspaper demanded in an editorial Tuesday.

Ayatollah Ali Saeedi, head of the Ideological-Political Bureau of the Supreme Leader’s Office, argued that in the “fight against the infidels,” there are only three options: war, surrender, or resistance. However, he stated that war against Israel and its allies is not "expedient," and surrender is unacceptable, leaving "active resistance" as the only viable path.

Although not made directly in the context of the current circumstances, Saeedi’s remarks Monday could indicate certain hesitations in the political establishment about a move that could be the start of a full-on war.

Supporters of ultra-hardliner politicians like Saeed Jalili accuse those advocating for self-restraint of cowardice. Their criticism is directed at 'reformist' media and politicians, such as Abbas Abdi and Sadegh Zibakalam, who have been calling for caution and a careful consideration of all options before making a decision that could potentially lead to war.

“A direct war with Israel is suicide,” Zibakalam said Monday in an interview with AbdiMedia.

“There are no chances of us negotiating with the United States and Israel. The world is prepared for the emergence of Mahdi and this big war after Mr. Haniyeh’s martyrdom shall be a turning point for the world,” an ultra-hardliner posted on X last week.

Some conservative politicians and media also appear to disdain rash calls to a war of the kind ultra-hardliners are demanding.

In an interview with the reformist Etemad newspaper Tuesday, Heshmatollah Falahatpisheh, a conservative former chairman of the Iranian Parliament’s National Security and Foreign Policy Committee, criticized hardliners for pushing hard for quick “revenge” as a matter of honor.

He alleged that infiltrators in Iran's intelligence agencies, who he blamed for the security failures that led to the incident, may also express radical views to push the country to war.

In an opinion piece in the conservative Khorasan newspaper Tuesday, foreign policy researcher Bardia Attaran contended that Iran's response should not involve missile or drone operations launched from inside Iranian borders.

The issue of missiles will turn into the focus of international pressure on Iran if it conveys the impression that missiles are the only means available to the country or results in a focus on newer technologies to neutralize these missiles, Attaran argued.

A response to the assassination, which he said is “inevitable”, would be the responsibility of the “region and Axis of Resistance” and can be in the form of an assassination at the same level as Israel’s assassination of the Hamas leader in Tel Aviv to make the city “unsafe”.

Speaking to Radio Farda, the Persian service of RFE/RL, on Monday, Sedigheh Vasmaghi, a prominent dissident female Islamic scholar, urged for the Islamic Republic’s self-restraint and warned about its involvement in any wars.

“Taking any steps, even small, towards war can be dangerous for the country and the nation because the other side will take the next step and we don't know what they are aiming at,” she said and argued that the Iranian people should not be made to pay the price for the intelligence and security shortcomings of the Islamic Republic which led to Haniyeh’s assassination in Tehran.