US and UK forces strike Houthi positions in Yemen

Iran’s Acting Foreign Minister Ali Bagheri Kani departed for Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, on Wednesday morning, leading a delegation to attend an extraordinary meeting of the Executive Committee of Foreign Ministers of the Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC).

The meeting is convened to discuss the implications of the assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran last week.

The international deputy of the Iranian Judiciary Kazem Gharibabadi in an interview with Lebanese Al-Mayadeen TV called for a response even “more decisive” than “Operation True Promise”, the missile and drone attack on Israel in April. Iran launched around 350 missiles and drones at Israel retaliation to an attack on the its embassy in Damascus.

“The aggressor should be punished, …, a punishment that conveys the message of deterrence and authority to the enemy,” the Revolutionary Guards (IRGC) linked Javan newspaper demanded in an editorial Tuesday.

Ayatollah Ali Saeedi, head of the Ideological-Political Bureau of the Supreme Leader’s Office, argued that in the “fight against the infidels,” there are only three options: war, surrender, or resistance. However, he stated that war against Israel and its allies is not "expedient," and surrender is unacceptable, leaving "active resistance" as the only viable path.

Although not made directly in the context of the current circumstances, Saeedi’s remarks Monday could indicate certain hesitations in the political establishment about a move that could be the start of a full-on war.

Supporters of ultra-hardliner politicians like Saeed Jalili accuse those advocating for self-restraint of cowardice. Their criticism is directed at 'reformist' media and politicians, such as Abbas Abdi and Sadegh Zibakalam, who have been calling for caution and a careful consideration of all options before making a decision that could potentially lead to war.

“A direct war with Israel is suicide,” Zibakalam said Monday in an interview with AbdiMedia.

“There are no chances of us negotiating with the United States and Israel. The world is prepared for the emergence of Mahdi and this big war after Mr. Haniyeh’s martyrdom shall be a turning point for the world,” an ultra-hardliner posted on X last week.

Some conservative politicians and media also appear to disdain rash calls to a war of the kind ultra-hardliners are demanding.

In an interview with the reformist Etemad newspaper Tuesday, Heshmatollah Falahatpisheh, a conservative former chairman of the Iranian Parliament’s National Security and Foreign Policy Committee, criticized hardliners for pushing hard for quick “revenge” as a matter of honor.

He alleged that infiltrators in Iran's intelligence agencies, who he blamed for the security failures that led to the incident, may also express radical views to push the country to war.

In an opinion piece in the conservative Khorasan newspaper Tuesday, foreign policy researcher Bardia Attaran contended that Iran's response should not involve missile or drone operations launched from inside Iranian borders.

The issue of missiles will turn into the focus of international pressure on Iran if it conveys the impression that missiles are the only means available to the country or results in a focus on newer technologies to neutralize these missiles, Attaran argued.

A response to the assassination, which he said is “inevitable”, would be the responsibility of the “region and Axis of Resistance” and can be in the form of an assassination at the same level as Israel’s assassination of the Hamas leader in Tel Aviv to make the city “unsafe”.

Speaking to Radio Farda, the Persian service of RFE/RL, on Monday, Sedigheh Vasmaghi, a prominent dissident female Islamic scholar, urged for the Islamic Republic’s self-restraint and warned about its involvement in any wars.

“Taking any steps, even small, towards war can be dangerous for the country and the nation because the other side will take the next step and we don't know what they are aiming at,” she said and argued that the Iranian people should not be made to pay the price for the intelligence and security shortcomings of the Islamic Republic which led to Haniyeh’s assassination in Tehran.

Three rockets were fired from the northern Gaza Strip toward Ashkelon and Sderot in southern Israel. The Iron Dome defense system intercepted one of the rockets, while the other two landed in uninhabited areas.

According to the Israeli military, no one was injured in the attack.

Palestinian Islamic Jihad, an armed group supported by the Islamic Republic of Iran, claimed responsibility for the attack.

US President Joe Biden spoke with the leaders of Qatar and Egypt on Tuesday to discuss efforts to de-escalate tensions in the region and bring a Gaza ceasefire and hostage release deal, the White House said.

According to two senior Iranian sources cited by Reuters, the plea for moderation was delivered by Sergei Shoigu, a key Putin ally, during a high-level meeting with Iranian officials in Tehran on Monday.

Shoigu's visit, as reported by Russia's state-run RIA news agency, highlighted Moscow's dual approach: condemning the assassination while advocating for a measured response from Iran. "The killing of Haniyeh is a very dangerous assassination," Shoigu allegedly stated.

The sources indicated that Shoigu’s visit was part of Russia's broader strategy to relay to Tehran the necessity of restraint, warning that a reckless response could lead to a major Middle Eastern war.

Iran's request for Russian military support

Despite the Kremlin's cautious approach, Tehran has not shied away from pressing its demands, including the acquisition of Russian-made Sukhoi Su-35 fighter jets. The two Iranian sources, who were privy to the discussions, disclosed to Reuters that this request was reiterated during Shoigu's visit, reflecting Iran's strategic ambitions amidst escalating tensions. Russia itself has lost hundreds of warplanes in its war on Ukraine and would be hard pressed to satisfy Iran's request.

An Israeli insider, who previously served as Commander of the Israel Air Defense Forces from 2015 to 2018, conveyed to Iran International that the current threat of war with Iran is notably different from the situation during Tehran's first direct attack on Israel in April. Brigadier General Zvika Haimovich indicated that Hezbollah is expected to play a pivotal role in Iran's anticipated retaliation this time. He expressed that he could not envision any outcome other than Iran responding to last week's killing, which Tehran has attributed to Israel.

"In the long term, I think we need to focus on the Iranian nuclear, wielding vision and capabilities, and build a strong and stable coalition led by the United States of America and also the Arab Sunni states against Iran," Haimovich stated.

International concerns and potential for conflict

The potential fallout from Iran's retaliation has alarmed international observers. An unnamed Biden administration official, speaking to Reuters, emphasized the risks of a significant regional conflict, stating, "The scale of Iran's and Hezbollah's response will be a key factor in determining the extent of a potential conflict." This sentiment is shared across Western capitals, where there is a palpable fear that Iran's aggressive posturing could spiral out of control, especially if coupled with Hezbollah's actions in Lebanon.

In Tehran, Ali Bagheri Kani, the acting head of the Foreign Ministry, reiterated Iran's stance, asserting that the assassination of Haniyeh was a "violation of international law" and that the Islamic Republic "has the right to take appropriate measures to defend and protect its national security and sovereignty." This rhetoric was echoed by Hezbollah, with a prominent Lebanese source close to the group telling Reuters, "A retaliatory strike is inevitable and diplomacy is no longer a viable option." The source added that while Iran seeks a severe response, it does not intend to spark a full-scale regional war.

In a separate discussion, former CIA director and US CENTCOM Commander David Petraeus, in an exclusive interview with Iran International, suggested that both Iran and Israel are likely to avoid an all-out war due to the catastrophic consequences it could entail for both nations.

“I think [the Iranians] have to respond,” Petraeus told Iran International's Marzia Hussaini, “this is an enormous blow to Iran's honor… It's a huge intelligence failure and… a security failure. So, they have to respond. But I don't think that Iran wants to get into a real direct back and forth war with Israel… And frankly, I don't think Israel wants to get in a real full-on war with Hezbollah or with Iran," he explained.

Israeli and US preparations for potential escalation

In response to these developments, Israel has been ramping up its military preparedness. Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant warned that the nation must be ready for all scenarios, including "a swift transition to offense" should Iran or Hezbollah launch attacks.

According to sources familiar with recent Israeli assessments, the country's response to any aggression will be calibrated based on the damage incurred rather than the scale of the attack.

Meanwhile, US intelligence has briefed President Joe Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris on potential scenarios, including possible waves of attacks from Hezbollah and other Iranian proxies. Axios reported that the intelligence community believes Iran and Hezbollah's response is still a "work in progress," with both actors undecided on the exact nature of their retaliation.

Rising tensions and regional dynamics

The regional dynamics are further complicated by recent events. A Tuesday NOTAM (Notice to Airmen) posted on the US Federal Aviation Administration warned pilots that there is a risk of gun firing activities in western Iran on August 7 and 8. It has set the danger zone up to an altitude of 12,000 feet above mean sea level.

Concurrently, Israeli warplanes conducted a series of aggressive maneuvers over Beirut, breaking the sound barrier and causing widespread panic just before a scheduled speech by Hezbollah chief Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah. The IDF has also confirmed airstrikes in southern Lebanon, targeting Hezbollah's infrastructure, as reported by Hebrew media. Lebanese media say at least four people were killed in the strikes in southern Lebanon.

As noted by a senior US official focused on Middle Eastern affairs, "We are doing everything we can to dissuade all parties from going to a place they can’t get back from," urging other regional and European states to exert more influence to de-escalate tensions. A Qatari official also echoed this sentiment, indicating that Doha is in constant communication with Tehran to reduce the likelihood of a conflict.