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US President Joe Biden spoke with the leaders of Qatar and Egypt on Tuesday to discuss efforts to de-escalate tensions in the region and bring a Gaza ceasefire and hostage release deal, the White House said.
In a diplomatic move, Russian President Vladimir Putin has reportedly urged Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei to exercise restraint following the assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh, allegedly carried out by Israel.
According to two senior Iranian sources cited by Reuters, the plea for moderation was delivered by Sergei Shoigu, a key Putin ally, during a high-level meeting with Iranian officials in Tehran on Monday.
Shoigu's visit, as reported by Russia's state-run RIA news agency, highlighted Moscow's dual approach: condemning the assassination while advocating for a measured response from Iran. "The killing of Haniyeh is a very dangerous assassination," Shoigu allegedly stated.
The sources indicated that Shoigu’s visit was part of Russia's broader strategy to relay to Tehran the necessity of restraint, warning that a reckless response could lead to a major Middle Eastern war.
Iran's request for Russian military support
Despite the Kremlin's cautious approach, Tehran has not shied away from pressing its demands, including the acquisition of Russian-made Sukhoi Su-35 fighter jets. The two Iranian sources, who were privy to the discussions, disclosed to Reuters that this request was reiterated during Shoigu's visit, reflecting Iran's strategic ambitions amidst escalating tensions. Russia itself has lost hundreds of warplanes in its war on Ukraine and would be hard pressed to satisfy Iran's request.
An Israeli insider, who previously served as Commander of the Israel Air Defense Forces from 2015 to 2018, conveyed to Iran International that the current threat of war with Iran is notably different from the situation during Tehran's first direct attack on Israel in April. Brigadier General Zvika Haimovich indicated that Hezbollah is expected to play a pivotal role in Iran's anticipated retaliation this time. He expressed that he could not envision any outcome other than Iran responding to last week's killing, which Tehran has attributed to Israel.
"In the long term, I think we need to focus on the Iranian nuclear, wielding vision and capabilities, and build a strong and stable coalition led by the United States of America and also the Arab Sunni states against Iran," Haimovich stated.
International concerns and potential for conflict
The potential fallout from Iran's retaliation has alarmed international observers. An unnamed Biden administration official, speaking to Reuters, emphasized the risks of a significant regional conflict, stating, "The scale of Iran's and Hezbollah's response will be a key factor in determining the extent of a potential conflict." This sentiment is shared across Western capitals, where there is a palpable fear that Iran's aggressive posturing could spiral out of control, especially if coupled with Hezbollah's actions in Lebanon.
In Tehran, Ali Bagheri Kani, the acting head of the Foreign Ministry, reiterated Iran's stance, asserting that the assassination of Haniyeh was a "violation of international law" and that the Islamic Republic "has the right to take appropriate measures to defend and protect its national security and sovereignty." This rhetoric was echoed by Hezbollah, with a prominent Lebanese source close to the group telling Reuters, "A retaliatory strike is inevitable and diplomacy is no longer a viable option." The source added that while Iran seeks a severe response, it does not intend to spark a full-scale regional war.
In a separate discussion, former CIA director and US CENTCOM Commander David Petraeus, in an exclusive interview with Iran International, suggested that both Iran and Israel are likely to avoid an all-out war due to the catastrophic consequences it could entail for both nations.
“I think [the Iranians] have to respond,” Petraeus told Iran International's Marzia Hussaini, “this is an enormous blow to Iran's honor… It's a huge intelligence failure and… a security failure. So, they have to respond. But I don't think that Iran wants to get into a real direct back and forth war with Israel… And frankly, I don't think Israel wants to get in a real full-on war with Hezbollah or with Iran," he explained.
Israeli and US preparations for potential escalation
In response to these developments, Israel has been ramping up its military preparedness. Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant warned that the nation must be ready for all scenarios, including "a swift transition to offense" should Iran or Hezbollah launch attacks.
According to sources familiar with recent Israeli assessments, the country's response to any aggression will be calibrated based on the damage incurred rather than the scale of the attack.
Meanwhile, US intelligence has briefed President Joe Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris on potential scenarios, including possible waves of attacks from Hezbollah and other Iranian proxies. Axios reported that the intelligence community believes Iran and Hezbollah's response is still a "work in progress," with both actors undecided on the exact nature of their retaliation.
Rising tensions and regional dynamics
The regional dynamics are further complicated by recent events. A Tuesday NOTAM (Notice to Airmen) posted on the US Federal Aviation Administration warned pilots that there is a risk of gun firing activities in western Iran on August 7 and 8. It has set the danger zone up to an altitude of 12,000 feet above mean sea level.
Concurrently, Israeli warplanes conducted a series of aggressive maneuvers over Beirut, breaking the sound barrier and causing widespread panic just before a scheduled speech by Hezbollah chief Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah. The IDF has also confirmed airstrikes in southern Lebanon, targeting Hezbollah's infrastructure, as reported by Hebrew media. Lebanese media say at least four people were killed in the strikes in southern Lebanon.
As noted by a senior US official focused on Middle Eastern affairs, "We are doing everything we can to dissuade all parties from going to a place they can’t get back from," urging other regional and European states to exert more influence to de-escalate tensions. A Qatari official also echoed this sentiment, indicating that Doha is in constant communication with Tehran to reduce the likelihood of a conflict.
Israeli warplanes swooped low over the Lebanese capital Beirut on Tuesday, setting off a series of sonic booms that rattled windows across the city minutes before the head of Lebanon's Hezbollah was set to give an address.
The loud booms sent residents rushing to open their windows to prevent the glass from shattering, or standing on their balconies to get a glimpse of the planes flying over.
In the capital's southern suburbs, a Hezbollah stronghold, members and supporters of the Lebanese armed group had gathered to watch a televised speech by its leader to mark the one-week anniversary of Israel's killing of a senior military commander, Fuad Shukr.
As he began, Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah said the sonic booms were intended to provoke those gathered for the memorial.
A Tuesday NOTAM (Notice to Airmen) posted on the US Federal Aviation Administration warns pilots that there is a risk of gun firing activities in western Iran on August 7 and 8. It has set the danger zone up to an altitude of 12,000 feet above mean sea level.
The announcement comes amid escalating tensions over Iran and its proxies' imminent attack on Israel in response to the assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran last week. According to the warning, the gun fire activity is scheduled to take place between 11:30 AM and 2:30 PM (local time) on Wednesday, and between 4:30 AM and 7:30 AM on Thursday.
The CEO of Imam Khomeini International Airport rejected earlier reports that Iran issued the warning. "The news of issuing a NOTAM, a flight safety warning for western Iran by the country's Civil Aviation Organization, is incorrect," said Saeed Chalandari.
The latest report from the US Office of the Director of National Intelligence accuses Iran of becoming ever bolder in boasting about its nuclear weapons as the chances of a return to the JCPOA nuclear deal look to be fading away.
"There has been a notable increase this year in Iranian public statements about nuclear weapons, suggesting the topic is becoming less taboo,” the report stated.
In May, Iranian MP Ahmad Bakhshayesh Ardestani said openly that Iran might already possess a nuclear weapon. It followed closely on the heels of remarks by Kamal Kharrazi, senior foreign policy advisor to Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, who had said that Tehran will change its nuclear doctrine if its archenemy Israel were to attack its atomic facilities.
For years, the Islamic Republic has insisted that its nuclear program is entirely peaceful, despite enriching uranium to 60-percent purity, which can only have a weaponization purpose.
"Since 2020, Iran has repeatedly stated that it is no longer constrained by any Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) limits, expanded its nuclear program, reduced International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) monitoring, and undertaken activities that better position it to produce a nuclear device, if it chooses to do so,” the US intelligence report noted.
However, it comes in stark contrast to the report released just last year in which it wrote that “Iran is not currently undertaking the key nuclear weapons-development activities that would be necessary to produce a testable nuclear device”.
That assessment rang hollow after it was revealed recently by the UN’s nuclear chief, Raphael Grossi, that Iran is “weeks not months” away from a nuclear weapon.
The latest report, under the Iran’s Nuclear Weapons Capability and Terrorism Monitoring Act of 2022, acknowledges the imminent threat the program poses as Iran continues to increase the size of its uranium stockpile, its enrichment capacity, and development, manufacturing, and operation of advanced centrifuges.
“Tehran has the infrastructure and experience to quickly produce weapons-grade uranium, at multiple facilities, if it chooses to do so,” the report noted.
The country’s nuclear capabilities have become a bargaining chip on the global stage, noted the report, which states that “Iran uses its nuclear program for negotiation leverage and to respond to perceived international pressure,” which has included hostage diplomacy with nations including Sweden and the US.
In line with UN inspectors, the report warns that “Iran probably will consider installing more advanced centrifuges, further increasing its enriched uranium stockpile, or enriching uranium up to 90 percent in response to additional sanctions, attacks, or censure against its nuclear program,” as global sanctions fail to stem the tide of armament.
It notes that Iran has the largest inventory of ballistic missiles in the region and the government continues to emphasize improving the accuracy, lethality, and reliability of these systems.
As the program continues, the unclassified report notes that “Iran probably is incorporating lessons learned from its missile and unmanned aerial vehicle attack against Israel in April”.
The first ever direct attack from Iran to Israel saw over 350 missiles and drones fired towards Israel, most of which were intercepted by Israel and a US-led coalition. It was in retaliation for an alleged Israeli strike on the Iranian consulate in Damascus in which two IRGC commanders were killed along with several other senior personnel.
But the intelligence suggests Iran’s armament development continues to gain pace in spite of global sanctions not only for Iran's nuclear program but for human rights abuses at home and its support of Russia's war on Ukraine. Iran has been supplying suicide drones to Russia used on civilian targets.
“Iran’s work on space-launch vehicles—including its Simorgh—probably would shorten the timeline to produce an intercontinental ballistic missile, if it decided to develop one, because the systems use similar technologies,” the report stated.
